Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[BargainBinSpecial]

I'll survive another year of Dvo, Armia, Gallagher and Anderson. Pezz and Evans will be dealt for some late round picks, while Armia, Savard and Dvo will be off the books. Hopefully, some picks can also be obtained for any of these guys. Only Anderson, Gallagher and Price will remain. The BargainBin era is nearing its end, although the new core is composed of BargainBin acquistions like Suz, Cauf, Guhle.....They'll pick another player for the future core in the top 5.

 

[red devil]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

I'm not a huge fan of JFresh's models, but I thought this was interesting that he projects us to finish 31st in the league next year.

I disagree tbh, but it's not out of the question.

This was his prediction last October right before the season starts when the rosters are finalized. There can still be moves over the offseason so we can have a better idea on how the team looks going into the season.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1711787278157107454

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

I don't see how we don't improve. The first line should be better. The 2nd line looks good. For the first time since the early 90s we'll have two good lines. That in itself is a big uplift.

Even if Beck makes the jump, I don't think the bottom six is going to improve much this year but I don't see how it's worse either.

The D will probably be the same. We'll have younger players establishing themselves. But Hutson should really help the PP. I expect that we'll see a big bump there.

Again, it really comes down to Dach being healthy. If he is, we'll score more and be a better team. If he goes down again, we have to go get somebody. We can't just leave it as is again.

I disagree, in 2008 Koivu, Plek, Kovalev, Tanguay, Kostitsyn, Pacces were your top 6. Gainey did manage to put together two top lines. Now, the top six is:

Cauf Suz Slaf
xxx Dach Newhook

Demidov is coming next yr, but Dach & Newhook are injury prone.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I disagree, in 2008 Koivu, Plek, Kovalev, Tanguay, Kostitsyn, Pacces were your top 6. Gainey did manage to put together two top lines. Now, the top six is:

I don't think we had a real number one line back then. Maybe two number twos. Kovalev had a career year... It wasn't a sustained group.

I think we have the makings of a much better top six that should last a long time (even if we have to replace Dach at some point.)

Cauf Suz Slaf
xxx Dach Newhook

Demidov is coming next yr, but Dach & Newhook are injury prone.

Newhook's not injuriy prone. I don't think we need to be concerned with him. Players get hurt, it's the nature of the game. And I think next year he gets bumped to the third line by Demidov.

Dach... unfortunately at this point, yeah. But let's see how that plays out. I'm hopeful but not confident that he can have a good year. When he's healthy he's such a solid player. If he goes down though, I think we'll replace him. Can't wait any longer.

 

[montreal]

This was his prediction last October right before the season starts when the rosters are finalized. There can still be moves over the offseason so we can have a better idea on how the team looks going into the season.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1711787278157107454

I don't pay any attention to any of these models, he did nail the leafs, sabers, caps, yotes, jets, and vegas but I don't know what that even means as getting 6 out of 32 right doesn't sound impressive. It's extremely hard to do though so the fact that he was within 1 pt in the standings on 6 teams says something but how much of that can be done through guessing?

To me goal DIF is a big one, each year you may see an aberration but mostly it tells the tale if you are a good team, bubble team or bad team.

 

[Lshap]

Every other bottom feeder can make that same argument. Columbus will be looking at their young guys to take that step forward, so will Chicago, so will San Jose, so will Philadelphia with Michkov coming over, so will Utah with their guys + adding Sergachev, so will New Jersey...

I'm expecting personal progression from our young guys as well and I hope I'm wrong, I hope it's enough to get us competing late into the year but this is the offseason where every fanbase is right to be hopeful until they're not anymore when the games start.

Based on late-season reporting (+ acknowledged once more by Basu on the podcast he did with Godin that was shared here) my biggest worry is discontent/jadedness from young veterans like Suzuki and Caufield. The one thing I really don't want is these guys coming to the rink in that state of mind because it's year 4 of a ton of losses and their GM got them no help.

Yes, every team has young players developing and rookies being added. However, the consensus is Montreal's crop of youth and prospects are among the best in the league. If that's true, our development curve will be better than those other teams. Habs will have a superior defence, at least two lines of high-end (if not elite) talent, very good bottom-six depth, and solid goaltending. That's without adding new names and by allowing our existing kids to mature – in other words, as-is. I think Suzuki and Caufield will be psyched to be leaders of that young, emerging core.

Doesn't mean the job is finished. At some point soon, I expect Hughes to start trading picks for vets and targeting UFAs. As I've said, those are the finishing touches to turn a strong foundation into a contender. A lot can go wrong, but I really like the patience and vision HuGo has shown. I think the players appreciate it, too.

 

[Ezpz]

I agree most teams have improved, but I'm not sure there's another team in the east expected to improve as much just by experience alone. We should expect better numbers from Slaf, Cole, Newhook, and Guhle at the least. Add in several vets had career bad years in Andy, Gally, and Dvo. We could also say Matheson and Monty don't repeat their years, but we're also adding Dach and Hutson for the year.

Goaltending was way better after we got rid of Allen.

Xhekaj, Harris Struble are fighting for their lives, etc.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Yes, every team has young players developing and rookies being added. However, the consensus is Montreal's crop of youth and prospects are among the best in the league. If that's true, our development curve will be better than those other teams. Habs will have a superior defence, at least two lines of high-end (if not elite) talent, very good bottom-six depth, and solid goaltending. That's without adding new names and by allowing our existing kids to mature – in other words, as-is. I think Suzuki and Caufield will be psyched to be leaders of that young, emerging core.

Doesn't mean the job is finished. At some point soon, I expect Hughes to start trading picks for vets and targeting UFAs. As I've said, those are the finishing touches to turn a strong foundation into a contender. A lot can go wrong, but I really like the patience and vision HuGo has shown. I think the players appreciate it, too.

Consensus from where?

Again, I'm saying this with all due respect, but we hear that stuff from every fanbase. I'm sure Columbus fans think their youth is some of the best in the league, same with Anaheim - they can go, hey if Zegras is back to being healthy and Carlsson takes a step forward, that would motivate Gibson and and and and.

I believe in what you're saying, I just believe it can also apply to others so I'm really skeptical without active team-building (i.e. getting some scoring help and perhaps a D that could help on defense) we're looking up anywhere. New Jersey and Ottawa got goaltenders for example so that may help. A guy like Pinto will be there all year. It may not mean much or it may make all the difference - we'll see. I'd just feel a hell of a lot better about this upcoming year if something had been done instead of the strategy being 'everyone will improve, stay healthy and there'll be no problems'. Seems like a fine way to get smacked in the mouth. I don't like inactivity in an off-season, especially when you are 3 seasons deep into your rebuild.

RE the players: Athletic reported late last year that there was starting to be concerns among the young players to 'not end up like Ottawa' so while I'm sure the guys are happy to be Canadiens and are on good terms with management, the clock is ticking. I guess for most they think it starts ticking next season. For me it's now and I'm disappointed by the offseason so far.

 

[red devil]

I don't pay any attention to any of these models, he did nail the leafs, sabers, caps, yotes, jets, and vegas but I don't know what that even means as getting 6 out of 32 right doesn't sound impressive. It's extremely hard to do though so the fact that he was within 1 pt in the standings on 6 teams says something but how much of that can be done through guessing?

To me goal DIF is a big one, each year you may see an aberration but mostly it tells the tale if you are a good team, bubble team or bad team.

I don't take any of these predictions seriously it just a discussion topic for me. The analysts and reporters don't know who will finish where more than fans do. You have an idea on how a team will finish from the previous year and the moves made over the offseason. I actually look a goal differential as well throughout year to determine on the how the team is playing. The Habs finished with the 5th worst differential. A few teams that did better than their differential would suggest where the Capitals, Islanders and Flyers.

 

[Habby4Life]

Im ok with another bottom 5 finish. We should get another A+ prospect. Dvo, Armia, evans,Savard, Petry, and Allen with be off the books (aprox 18 mil). In addition, after Price's 5.5 mil bonus is paid it will be easy to offload his contract.

I have no doubt at this time, Hugo will go out and spend serious money rounding out this team.

Its a rebuild, patience is the key. Do it right and the Habs will be good for a long time. Future is bright.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Consensus from where?

Again, I'm saying this with all due respect, but we hear that stuff from every fanbase. I'm sure Columbus fans think their youth is some of the best in the league, same with Anaheim - they can go, hey if Zegras is back to being healthy and Carlsson takes a step forward, that would motivate Gibson and and and and.

I believe in what you're saying, I just believe it can also apply to others so I'm really skeptical without active team-building (i.e. getting some scoring help and perhaps a D that could help on defense) we're looking up anywhere. New Jersey and Ottawa got goaltenders for example so that may help. A guy like Pinto will be there all year. It may not mean much or it may make all the difference - we'll see. I'd just feel a hell of a lot better about this upcoming year if something had been done instead of the strategy being 'everyone will improve, stay healthy and there'll be no problems'. Seems like a fine way to get smacked in the mouth. I don't like inactivity in an off-season, especially when you are 3 seasons deep into your rebuild.

RE the players: Athletic reported late last year that there was starting to be concerns among the young players to 'not end up like Ottawa' so while I'm sure the guys are happy to be Canadiens and are on good terms with management, the clock is ticking. I guess for most they think it starts ticking next season. For me it's now and I'm disappointed by the offseason so far.

We have so many young players coming in though. It’s about expectations and objectives.

Do I expect us to make the playoffs this year? No. But I don’t really care if we do.

My objective is to see the team develop and improve. I want to see younger players that we’ve invested a lot in, to come and start to develop in the NHL. Doing it this way means a worse team now but a much better one down the road.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I don't pay any attention to any of these models, he did nail the leafs, sabers, caps, yotes, jets, and vegas but I don't know what that even means as getting 6 out of 32 right doesn't sound impressive. It's extremely hard to do though so the fact that he was within 1 pt in the standings on 6 teams says something but how much of that can be done through guessing?

To me goal DIF is a big one, each year you may see an aberration but mostly it tells the tale if you are a good team, bubble team or bad team.

I have to check, but most models tend to value projected goal differential very highly. A lot of standing variations come from when goal differential doesn't match wins and losses.

They are useful for people to be somewhat realistic of where Montreal will finish even if, as a young team with developing players, Montreal is a team that could seriously over-perform expectations.

I've been expecting 2025-2026 as being the first season Montreal would/could seriously contend for the playoffs since Hughes and Gorton got hired, so I'm not really surprised Montreal isn't expected to do much next season. They needed two offseasons just to get out of cap hell.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

We have so many young players coming in though. It’s about expectations and objectives.

Do I expect us to make the playoffs this year? No. But I don’t really care if we do.

My objective is to see the team develop and improve. I want to see younger players that we’ve invested a lot in, to come and start to develop in the NHL. Doing it this way means a worse team now but a much better one down the road.

But I don't think one negates the other, not at all. A veteran scorer can help and you're also throwing your young guys a bone, rewarding them for their hard work in the last couple of seasons and telling them that you're ready to watch them take the next steps.

I want this team to improve, not stagnate standings-wise for another year. No core does it alone. Everyone needs help. I'm just dreading a bad finish and then hearing that Suzuki is tired of being here or something like that.

 

[Lshap]

Consensus from where?

Again, I'm saying this with all due respect, but we hear that stuff from every fanbase. I'm sure Columbus fans think their youth is some of the best in the league, same with Anaheim - they can go, hey if Zegras is back to being healthy and Carlsson takes a step forward, that would motivate Gibson and and and and.

I believe in what you're saying, I just believe it can also apply to others so I'm really skeptical without active team-building (i.e. getting some scoring help and perhaps a D that could help on defense) we're looking up anywhere. New Jersey and Ottawa got goaltenders for example so that may help. A guy like Pinto will be there all year. It may not mean much or it may make all the difference - we'll see. I'd just feel a hell of a lot better about this upcoming year if something had been done instead of the strategy being 'everyone will improve, stay healthy and there'll be no problems'. Seems like a fine way to get smacked in the mouth. I don't like inactivity in an off-season, especially when you are 3 seasons deep into your rebuild.

RE the players: Athletic reported late last year that there was starting to be concerns among the young players to 'not end up like Ottawa' so while I'm sure the guys are happy to be Canadiens and are on good terms with management, the clock is ticking. I guess for most they think it starts ticking next season. For me it's now and I'm disappointed by the offseason so far.

Fair points. I searched for rankings of prospect pools and only found lists after 2023. Here's where these publications ranked Montreal, pre-2024, before we drafted Demidov and Hage:

The Athletic: 10th
ESPN: 10th
HockeyWriters: 8th
Yahoo Sports: 4th
Hockey Prospecting: 2nd

Factor in last week's draft and you'd think we've moved up! That said, I remember a dozen years ago when the 'experts' ranked the Habs' prospects among the top-10, so I know none of this is gospel. But we've had three years of top-5 drafting and have a few excellent prospects ready to make the jump; it's fair to say Montreal's roster in three/four years will be better than a lot of teams currently ahead of us.

 

[Archijerej]

Great teams aren't built from one player... especially UFAs. The best teams grow from superior talent and depth, which grows from a superior group of prospects and youth. Habs have one of the top groups of kids; they will hopefully become one of the top rosters. Again – that's the point of a rebuild.

I agree with this 100% as a general philosophy. The strength of a team lie in its core. That said, there's a difference between artificially trying to improve in the standings by hiring a bunch of mercenaries and creating conditions for the said core to develop organically.

Some examples:

Our first line could come back all guns blazing, but it's not going to help our penalty kill, which will lead to goals against, losses and impact on team morale. Is Rafael Harvey-Pinard the best we can do on our bottom 6? I doubt that. Is there someone in Laval who can step up? Perhaps.

Newhook - Dach could be the nucleus of a good line, but is it necessary, in the name internal development, to staple Josh Anderson on that line? Wouldn't a Tarasenko, a Perron, or an Arvidsson be a good support player on that line, increasing its chance of success? It's not like Dach has established himself the last two years and is ready to run the show coming back from a season-long injury. Maybe the bosses know how to get Anderson going. Fine. They know the players. It's their call.

Is it good developmental strategy to press Joshua Roy into a role he might not be able to handle?

Again, I agree with you in principle, but patience should not lead to passivity.

 

[Rapala]

Because I don't want those vets dragging down a prospect. What did Slaf learn last year being dragged down and barely surviving ? It's the same principle, the moment he was given on-ice support, he soared. Why can't we take what we learned from Slaf and use it for all young player on different levels ?

Yeah when Demidov does finally play you aim to get him with Suzuki sooner than later.
I don't think it's a coincidence both Dach and Slaf found their games alongside him.

 

[Rapala]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

I'm not a huge fan of JFresh's models, but I thought this was interesting that he projects us to finish 31st in the league next year.

I disagree tbh, but it's not out of the question.

Did HuGo send them a memo to stop trying.
Marty taking a year off for personal reasons..

WoW

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

I'm not a huge fan of JFresh's models, but I thought this was interesting that he projects us to finish 31st in the league next year.

I disagree tbh, but it's not out of the question.

His model also had the Habs finishing 31st last season. The models seems not to like the Habs very much lol. I expect another small increase from last year to happen again. I haven't set my official prediction but now I'm at 84.5 over/under

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

But I don't think one negates the other, not at all. A veteran scorer can help and you're also throwing your young guys a bone, rewarding them for their hard work in the last couple of seasons and telling them that you're ready to watch them take the next steps.

I want this team to improve, not stagnate standings-wise for another year. No core does it alone. Everyone needs help. I'm just dreading a bad finish and then hearing that Suzuki is tired of being here or something like that.

I don't think your position is unreasonable. Both you and @Mrb1p have raised some good points. But I also don't think we HAVe to do it that way either. And I really don't think a guy like Suzuki is going to sour on the club because this young roster doesn't make the playoffs. I think you guys are painting this as a 'must do' and I don't see it that way.

As I've said, if we go that way... I'll be okay with it. But I'd prefer not to. With the talent that's on it's way up and the vets in place now, I have a really hard time not seeing this club improving massively within a few short years as it is.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree with this 100% as a general philosophy. The strength of a team lie in its core. That said, there's a difference between artificially trying to improve in the standings by hiring a bunch of mercenaries and creating conditions for the said core to develop organically.

Some examples:

Our first line could come back all guns blazing, but it's not going to help our penalty kill, which will lead to goals against, losses and impact on team morale. Is Rafael Harvey-Pinard the best we can do on our bottom 6? I doubt that. Is there someone in Laval who can step up? Perhaps.

Newhook - Dach could be the nucleus of a good line, but is it necessary, in the name internal development, to staple Josh Anderson on that line? Wouldn't a Tarasenko, a Perron, or an Arvidsson be a good support player on that line, increasing its chance of success? It's not like Dach has established himself the last two years and is ready to run the show coming back from a season-long injury. Maybe the bosses know how to get Anderson going. Fine. They know the players. It's their call.

Is it good developmental strategy to press Joshua Roy into a role he might not be able to handle?

Again, I agree with you in principle, but patience should not lead to passivity.

Again, I'll use the 2nd line as an example. If Roy wasn't here, I'd totally agree with filling in the second line with a vet. But Roy's here so why doesn't he just slot in there with Dach and Newhook? That looks like a great young 2nd line to me.

 

[JianYang]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

I'm not a huge fan of JFresh's models, but I thought this was interesting that he projects us to finish 31st in the league next year.

I disagree tbh, but it's not out of the question.

How did his projection do last year?

 

[Canadienna]

How did his projection do last year?

This is what he had to say about it.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809253525773275470

Again, I don't agree with his prediction, I was just sharing out of interest.

 

[JianYang]

This is what he had to say about it.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809253525773275470

Again, I don't agree with his prediction, I was just sharing out of interest.

Not bad.... he underestimated the Habs by 5 points, but his projection likely would have been even lower had he known that dach would miss 80 games.

 

[Archijerej]

Again, I'll use the 2nd line as an example. If Roy wasn't here, I'd totally agree with filling in the second line with a vet. But Roy's here so why doesn't he just slot in there with Dach and Newhook? That looks like a great young 2nd line to me.

To me it looks like (another) a question mark.

The proper way, in my opinion, would be to start Roy on the 3rd line and work from there.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

To me it looks like (another) a question mark.

If we were contenders I’d agree with you. But we’re not. We’re not making the playoffs. The standings don’t matter as much as player progression.

The proper way, in my opinion, would be to start Roy on the 3rd line and work from there

Look at what happened with CC and Slaf when they played with better players. Their points went up. Their play improved.

It’s one thing to have Beck on the 3rd learning D but Roy’s an offensive player. Why not let him play on the second? I’d even give him some shifts on the first.