Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[Lafleurs Guy]

Like i've said many times most of it will be solved next summer (2025). Dvorak and Armia will be gone and only Gallagher and Anderson will remain and for the time being they can be hidden on a 4th line until they are tradeable or must be bought out.

The lineup in 2025-26 should be :

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Demidov - Dach - ?
Newhook - ? - Roy
Anderson - Evans - Gallagher

In the pipeline we will have Mesar (1 year exp AHL), Beck (1 year exp AHL), Farrell (2 year exp AHL), Tuch (1 year exp AHL), Kapanen (3 years of exp in Europe), Rohrer (2 years of exp in Europe), Florian Xhekaj (1 year exp AHL).

Ideally we should need only one top 6 forward and one 3rd line forward. If none of those kids can play this role we can look at the UFA or trade market in the summer of 2025 now would have been too soon.

Guhle - Matheson
Hutson - Reinbacher
Xhekaj - Mailloux
Struble

In the pipeline we will have Engstrom (3 years of Exp in Europe), Konyushkov (3 years of Exp in Europe). I would be surprised if we need to add a dman unless we trade Matheson and that trade will happen only if it solve the top 6 hole imo.

Here's what I'd say:

The lineup in 2025-26 should be :

Demidov - Suzuki - Slaf
Caufield Dach Roy
Newhook - Beck - (Mesar? Kidney? Farrel? UFA?)
Anderson - Evans - Gallagher

Agree with you on the D.

Put Demidov with two vets. Give Dach CC who will hopefully be back to normal (we'll see) and Roy plays with two really good players as well. I think that works. But honestly, you could mix it up anyway you want. I wouldn't have Roy and Demidov on the same line though. Other than that, Slaf with Dach? Sure. Nick with Roy? Fine... whatever, it's all good.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

at the time of monahan trade, we were one win bellow .500. having dach for the whole season, even with just marginal progression of the young guns, should be enough for at least 82-84 point season. having evans as #4 c instead of #2 c (at times) should also help. not to mention a 6,4% shooting percentage by josh anderson and 8.9% by cole caufield...

you also dont have monahan

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

I don't think the young, new-core, players (Suzuki, Slaf, CC, Dach, possibly Guhle) will be happy with another bottom 5 finish. They want to compete.

Sucks because this roster rn is not gonna compete.


We have yet to know if Dach will be a top 6 player. People are putting him way too fast as a second liner , he has yet to prove it and first to stay healthy to begin with

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

you also dont have monahan

We only had Monahan for 50 games anyway. Plus we'll have Newhook back and healthy. Hutson will likely be joining the team. Those are all good things that I think we can count on improving the team.

If CC can improve his shot a little bit, that helps. Then there's Mailloux and Beck who could join. Add that in with Dach and we're actually looking like a much improved team.

I have no issue with anyone saying we're not going to make the playoffs next year. I agree. However, I don't think that we have NO chance at it. There are a lot of prospects that are joining and we have some players who are recovering from injury. We could well have a better season than expected.

And if we miss... I'm okay with that. What I want to see is the following:

Hutson joins and plays on the PP, improving it.
Dach has a healthy year and plays well.
CC improves his shooting percentage and we see more pepper on the shot.
Roy has a strong rookie year.
Beck and Mailloux come up at some point and stay up.
Slaf continues his upwards trajectory.
Suzuki builds on the strong 2nd half of last year.
The goalies continue to play well.

If we got all of this, we likely make the playoffs. Even if we don't, the development is more important in the long run.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

The divisions and conferences are tough in the east. Habs and Columbus are the only weak teams. Habs play three games against the conference for 24 games and in the division they play 5 opponents 5 games and 3 opponents 3 times. 50 games in the east in total and 32 against the west via a home and home for the other 32 games. Many teams improved on paper in the division; much more than Montreal. Today the team is no different than the end of season of 24 so only organic growth

 

[billy piton]

you also dont have monahan

last year we didn't have dach and im pretty sure dach will be more effective 5v5 player than monahan.

 

[billy piton]

We only had Monahan for 50 games anyway. Plus we'll have Newhook back and healthy. Hutson will likely be joining the team. Those are all good things that I think we can count on improving the team.

If CC can improve his shot a little bit, that helps. Then there's Mailloux and Beck who could join. Add that in with Dach and we're actually looking like a much improved team.

I have no issue with anyone saying we're not going to make the playoffs next year. I agree. However, I don't think that we have NO chance at it. There are a lot of prospects that are joining and we have some players who are recovering from injury. We could well have a better season than expected.

And if we miss... I'm okay with that. What I want to see is the following:

Hutson joins and plays on the PP, improving it.
Dach has a healthy year and plays well.
CC improves his shooting percentage and we see more pepper on the shot.
Roy has a strong rookie year.
Beck and Mailloux come up at some point and stay up.
Slaf continues his upwards trajectory.
Suzuki builds on the strong 2nd half of last year.
The goalies continue to play well.

If we got all of this, we likely make the playoffs. Even if we don't, the development is more important in the long run.

and if you see everything above, playoffs might be within reach

 

[Rapala]

Sucks because this roster rn is not gonna compete.


We have yet to know if Dach will be a top 6 player. People are putting him way too fast as a second liner , he has yet to prove it and first to stay healthy to begin with

I blame the infamous "On Pace For" which is just another way of saying "I'm cherry picking" when looking at stats in incomplete seasons.
Availability is the first stat that has to be positive plain and simple.

 

[Fuonki]

Goaltenders are a huge part of any TEAM.
I grew up watching and interpreting hockey a certain way.
I get it I really do but I don't give a rat's ass about xGF xGA.
All goaltenders bail out defensive errors just like all goaltenders blow angles etc.
If the goaltender is particularly good GREAT. If not time to upgrade.
This expected thing gives me a huge chuckle.
The reason I watch and love hockey is for the Unexpected.

That's definitely true and we all saw it last season how Monty kept stealing game after game for us. Analytically speaking goalies are actually by far the single most important players on each team, unless you literally have someone like Connor McDavid carrying your offense. The reason why it's better to look at expected goals is because both the finishing aspect and goaltending aspect of the game is extremely unpredictable, and can vary massively from season to season. Only the very best goalies and shooters remain consistently good for their whole careers. Expected goals is all about looking at who is driving the play, who is creating and preventing the most amount of chances that are likely to result in goals.

Of course it's far from perfect when you're ignoring two huge variances in hockey, but some more advanced models take those into account as well, as you can see with the 3 different xG models having a different score from one another. But when you take a big enough data sample like an entire regular season, it paints a pretty good picture. We were consistently outmatched last year, and were just as bad as the teams that finished 10-15 points below us, with the key difference being with us having much better goalies in Montembeault and Allen. Merzlikins and Gibson for instance were both bottom 10 in the league in saving goals for their team, while Monty was in the top 10. So goalies combined with favourable score impacts (such as getting a lucky bounce that ties the game late in the 3rd instead of getting a lucky bounce that cuts a 4 goal lead into 3) resulted in a couple more "stolen" wins and more games going to OT for us than everyone else in that bracket.

What I'm basically trying to say is that the score table flattered us a little bit at the end of last year. If Monty still keeps playing like an elite goalie next season then that's fair, we just have a better goalie than some of the other bottom teams in the league. But if not, the rest of the team would have to pick up quite a lot to drag this team out of a bottom 5 finish. We'll just have to wait and see

 

[Rapala]

That's definitely true and we all saw it last season how Monty kept stealing game after game for us. Analytically speaking goalies are actually by far the single most important players on each team, unless you literally have someone like Connor McDavid carrying your offense. The reason why it's better to look at expected goals is because both the finishing aspect and goaltending aspect of the game is extremely unpredictable, and can vary massively from season to season. Only the very best goalies and shooters remain consistently good for their whole careers. Expected goals is all about looking at who is driving the play, who is creating and preventing the most amount of chances that are likely to result in goals.

Of course it's far from perfect when you're ignoring two huge variances in hockey, but some more advanced models take those into account as well, as you can see with the 3 different xG models having a different score from one another. But when you take a big enough data sample like an entire regular season, it paints a pretty good picture. We were consistently outmatched last year, and were just as bad as the teams that finished 10-15 points below us, with the key difference being with us having much better goalies in Montembeault and Allen. Merzlikins and Gibson for instance were both bottom 10 in the league in saving goals for their team, while Monty was in the top 10. So goalies combined with favourable score impacts (such as getting a lucky bounce that ties the game late in the 3rd instead of getting a lucky bounce that cuts a 4 goal lead into 3) resulted in a couple more "stolen" wins and more games going to OT for us than everyone else in that bracket.

What I'm basically trying to say is that the score table flattered us a little bit at the end of last year. If Monty still keeps playing like an elite goalie next season then that's fair, we just have a better goalie than some of the other bottom teams in the league. But if not, the rest of the team would have to pick up quite a lot to drag this team out of a bottom 5 finish. We'll just have to wait and see

Wow.
Monty's expected stats didn't sway how I looked at the games. He's been above expected for two seasons in a row.
You only had to look at the number of clear cut breakaways he stopped.
The argument going into last season was he's going to fall of that expected cliff.
Maybe the people/system deciding what is expected and what isn't will change the way they look at Montembeault.
He keeps on making the saves so the expected has to change right?
Like I said I'm good with GF/GA.

Carry on then.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

last year we didn't have dach and im pretty sure dach will be more effective 5v5 player than monahan.

well dach has averaged 40 games and 20 points in the five years . The on pace for argument is weak by any standard. I hope you are right but the probability is low. His faceoff percentage is also 32%. If we are depending on him we could fall below 28th

 

[billy piton]

well dach has averaged 40 games and 20 points in the five years . The on pace for argument is weak by any standard. I hope you are right but the probability is low. His faceoff percentage is also 32%. If we are depending on him we could fall below 28th

monahan averaged even less games before traded to the habs. plus, he is much older and had way worse injuries... if dach busts or gets injured we definitely won't gonna see playoffs anyway.

 

[TesseractPrice]

Parity in the league is a cyclical beast. Remember in 2021-2022, when Habs were dead last, how the 8th and 9th teams in the East had a record setting 16 points difference? The parity was basically non existent. Since then, the difference between the top 8 and bottom 8 teams has been dwindling. Bottom feeders have been slowly drafting and accumulating assets while the top teams older cores are getting more and more banged up from all those playoffs games

The trend should continue next season and coalesce into a more even playing field. Some teams will crumble spectacularly while other will see stars allign, sure, but on average a lot of teams will be quite similar. Caps, Sabres, Wings, Pens, Sens, Isles could all get within 5 points of each others

The same applies for the Habs for multiple reasons:
- As @MarkovsKnee noted on another thread, this is a contract year for Dvorak, Armia and Evans as well as Savard. For the forwards, this could be their last big contract; this was definitely a reason Monahan played like he did last season. I actually expect Dvorak to come close to a 0.5 P/G and Armia to pace for close to 20 goals/season. Evans could also see a bump in his production.
- Then, we have the group of Harris, Barron, Strubble and Xhekaj. Let's just say they faced a lot of adversity in the past seasons. If just one of them takes it to the next level and can be a decent 2nd pair option, the D is much better all of a sudden. If two of them figure it out, then the defence becomes almost average
- The rookie dmen (Hutson, Mailloux, Renbacher) will also push and could very well establish themselves as solid 3rd pair options
- The core 5 forwards of Suzuki, Slaf, Dach, Caufield, Newhook is actually quite decent. Dach is a good two-way player and so was Newhook toward the end of last season
- Assuming Gallagher and Anderson will both be somewhere between useless and straight liabilities on the ice, that's just two of them. Last season we had 4 or 5 with Pearson, Ylonen, White, Stephens. We can insulate them with like Evans or something on the 4th line
- The battle for the 9th or 12th forward spot should be more competitive with Beck, Heineman, Mesar and Barré-Boulet fighting for a chance. I expect Beck to have the strongest showing but he could still be sent to the AHL if it's for the 12th spot. If it's for the 9th, he'd make it
- Roy should make it as 6th forward, we'll see how it goes
- The goaltending is league average, which is better than bottom 5 obviously and a driver for a higher spot in the standings

If two of offence, defence and goaltending can be league average while the other one isn't bottom 2, a bottom 5 is unlikely. It rides on Dvorak and Armia wanting to get one last big contract and two of the young dmen not named Guhle to take the next step. It's quite possible and even probable

 

[Lshap]

The divisions and conferences are tough in the east. Habs and Columbus are the only weak teams. Habs play three games against the conference for 24 games and in the division they play 5 opponents 5 games and 3 opponents 3 times. 50 games in the east in total and 32 against the west via a home and home for the other 32 games. Many teams improved on paper in the division; much more than Montreal. Today the team is no different than the end of season of 24 so only organic growth

What improves a team more: Signing one vet, or having 8 or 9 young players improve?

 

[Beer and Chips]

Still too many young defensemen, sending Hutson to Laval so Harris gets more time? And wasting a Savard pairing until the TDL.
Pending pre-season games, I have to think Hutson in Laval means they aren't competing this season.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

I blame the infamous "On Pace For" which is just another way of saying "I'm cherry picking" when looking at stats in incomplete seasons.
Availability is the first stat that has to be positive plain and simple.

The once pace stats is probaby the most delusional stats in hockey.

 

[_vivelequebec_]

Pretty sure we will play for .500

So even a top 10 pick is not guaranteed

 

[montreal]

i heard the draft is really strong next year.

we'll see, too early to say imo.

 

[LaP]

Pretty sure we will play for .500

So even a top 10 pick is not guaranteed

Which is fine don't think we need more top 10. What we need to Calgary to draft 11th and us between 12th and 15th.

 

[LaP]

I blame the infamous "On Pace For" which is just another way of saying "I'm cherry picking" when looking at stats in incomplete seasons.
Availability is the first stat that has to be positive plain and simple.

Dach just need to be a solid 2nd line center, He has 99 points in 212 games in career which is an average of 38 points every 82 games. He must make some progress but people act like he needs to go from 20 points to 80 points for him to be useful.

On pace might be cherry picking but "i'm gonna use the worse season this guy had to prove a point" is cherry picking too. In reality Dach is very close to be a good 2nd line center and in every games i've watched him he looked like he had the skills to pull it off for sure.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

What improves a team more: Signing one vet, or having 8 or 9 young players improve?

I think you need marchessault type player to accelerate the rebuild. you get better with better players.

What improves a team more: Signing one vet, or having 8 or 9 young players improve

what are the odds 9 of 9 improve?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I blame the infamous "On Pace For" which is just another way of saying "I'm cherry picking" when looking at stats in incomplete seasons.
Availability is the first stat that has to be positive plain and simple.

The once pace stats is probaby the most delusional stats in hockey.

It’s beyond me how people don’t understand that on pace is the easiest way to compare players who’ve played different numbers of games. Moreover it’s extremely useful for young players who you’re projecting future numbers for.

But on pace doesn’t definitively mean that playe r X will score Y. But it’s an indicator as to how they’re playing. The more facts you have the better.

It’s totally shortsighted to ignore them.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Dach just need to be a solid 2nd line center, He has 99 points in 212 games in career which is an average of 38 points every 82 games. He must make some progress but people act like he needs to go from 20 points to 80 points for him to be useful.

On pace might be cherry picking but "i'm gonna use the worse season this guy had to prove a point" is cherry picking too. In reality Dach is very close to be a good 2nd line center and in every games i've watched him he looked like he had the skills to pull it off for sure.

Cherry picking is randomly ignoring one group of numbers and only picking ones that suit the case you want to make.

There’s absolutely no harm in looking at a player’s on pace for numbers and showing it over 82. Again, it’s not necessarily predictive, it’s simply giving you an idea of what kind of a season a player’s having.

11 goals in 45 games. Is that good or bad? A good idea is to use on pace, that translates to 20 over 82. Now you’ve got a better idea as to how the player is doing.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Again look at the other bubble teams, they aren't amazing offensively either, Philly had one player hit 60 points, two that hit 50 points. Buffalo didn't have a single 60 point player, etc...

Look anything can happen, but the most likely thing to happen is that we continue to do what we've done over the past 2 years and have slight improvements in points, GF, GAs, etc... And if your looking for individual player improvements. Slaf is likely to improve drastically on his 50 points given that he spent the first third of the year not producing much before finally putting it together, Caufield's likely to have his shooting % improve at least a few points and score more goals, Suzuki has yet to have an NHL season where he didn't improve his production from the year before and given he actually has linemates this year that's likely to continue again. We actually have the makings of a 2nd line where guys can put up 50 points which is something we've lacked for years. As for goaltending Allen was the worst of the 3, so if anything we are likely to improve in that regard.

There's a possibility that ALLLLLLLLLLLLL that happens. Unlikely though. I think some of them will happen, and some of the things I mentioned will happen... And we'll fall where we fall based on that multivariate equation.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

I think some are more pessimistic than they should. MTL was pretty darn good at 5 on 5 down the stretch. Are they a playoff team? I don't think so but they will probably finish in the 19-22 range which would be a step in the right direction. I think the whole premise of MTL having the most 1 goal losses is a tad misleading but it's hard to think they can't get some better luck in that department next year.

For all the flack that this team gets for offense I anticipate that they could score around 240-250 goals which would be a tiny bit more than last year (236; a lot of OT goals too in that metric). I made some projections with best case scenario, somewhere in the middle and worst case scenario (for # of goals per regular).

NAME	WORST CASE	REALIST	BEST CASE
CAUFIELD	30​	32​	37​
SUZUKI	25​	32​	35​
SLAF	20​	25​	28​
NEWHOOK	15​	20​	23​
DACH	12​	15​	18​
ROY	13​	15​	18​
ANDERSON	8​	15​	18​
GALLAGHER	12​	15​	17​
ARMIA	12​	15​	18​
DVORAK	10​	12​	15​
RHP	7​	10​	12​
EVANS	5​	7​	10​
PEZZETTA	2​	4​	6​
BECK	5​	8​	10​
CALL UP FWDS	3​	6​	8​
MATHESON	7​	10​	12​
GUHLE	3​	5​	7​
HUTSON	5​	7​	10​
BARRON	3​	6​	8​
XHEKAJ	3​	4​	6​
HARRIS	1​	3​	4​
SAVARD	1​	3​	4​
STRUBLE	2​	4​	5​
TOTAL	204​	273​	329​
INJURY (minus)	-20.4​	-27.3​	-49.35​
TOTAL w/ inj	184​	246​	280​
RANK (NHL)	30th	Tied for 22nd	7th

I don't think any of these are necessarily outlandish.

The team is still young so we can expect some improvements defensively as well. Montreal allowed 289 goals last year. With a full tandem of Primeau and Montembault and continuous improvement from the PK, I don't think a reduction of 20 goals is not too ambitious. The Habs were also implementing a new D system, the stability in terms of personnel should help compared to the many teams who changed coaches. Also, the Habs were the 3rd most penalized team last year. If Xhekaj, Gallagher and Matheson can cut down on penalties it should help reduce goals against.

I expect Montreal to finish with around 85 points which would have been good for 22nd in the league last year (and 6 pts short of a playoff spot).