Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[LaP]

It would take massive leaps of young talent and a healthy Dach for us to finish with the 10th to 12th pick as many are saying

If progression is standard and nothing astronomical ,(Caufield scoring 45 or Slaf becoming a ppg player) and Dach gives up 50or so points and plays 70 plus, I think we could finish with the 8th pick pre lottery

We were 11 points away from drafting 12h. This is 6 more wins. Don't think it would require a massive leap.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

This is a rebuild. What are people expecting ? Hutson, Reinbacher and Demidov are all probably 1 year from the NHL and even further away from having an impact. I thought they might add something in UFA but I’d rather be patient than be stuck with contracts like Marchessault/DeBrusk/Edmundson/Monahan/OEL and other garbage that was signed.

Bottom 10 finish at best.

 

[417]

Not sure the exact dates on when the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line was put together but it was roughly the final 50ish games. And if we look at the combined goal scoring of those 3 before/after it tells the tale, first 32 games they combined for 20 goals, during the final 50 they combined for 61 goals.

That's almost 20 extra goals we could expect over a full season next year with zero actual changes. So yeah the lineup this year vs last year isn't likely to be much different, but that doesn't mean you should expect the same results.

I mean...just not having Jake Evans as the #2C for the majority of the season like this past one, should help in itself.

People forget we ran with a Suzuki/Evans/Gignac down the middle at some point this season lol

 

[Saundies]

We were 11 points away from drafting 12h. This is 6 more wins. Don't think it would require a massive leap.

This is what people don't understand. Plus the amount of 1 goal games we lost or went to OT and lost, we could have easily finished a lot higher this year in general. We drafted in the same spot as we did in 2022-2023 and yet it was way less painful to watch.

Plus all of our core guys are getting a year older. It's Slaf's third year in the league, Caufield's 4th. Suzuki's entering his prime and a lot of our D who went through the sophomore slump can expect to bounce back.

Having Dach back and even playing for 60+ games would keep everyone in their chairs.

We have largely the same team, but it's not the same team of guys who have peaked and we can expect the exact same performances out of them.

 

[CDN24]

I think some of y'all forget the record number of 1 goal games they had last year. The team wasn't as bad as their record showed. With a healthy Dach and second half Slaf for the whole year, I expect and hope to see improvement.

I'm done with tanking, I want to see meaningful hockey again.

A lot will depend on injuries. I don't expect a playoff spot but expect them to be in the 17 to 22 range overall. Drafting just outside the top 10.

Yes we are relying on organic growth, but with close to half the roster 25 and under you will get more organic growth than most teams. The only net growth in the league is organic. For every Nashville adding a couple high end UFAs there is another team who lost the same high end UFA.

Sharks and Hawks were 29 and 24 pts behind us - they have improved but not that much
Ducks were 17 pts behind us and relying on organic growth too
Columbus 10 pts back lost a few players to ufa and at last deadline. added Monahan. doubt they pass us

What about the teams in front of us they didn't all improve

Flames dumped 1/2 their roster since last trade deadline and will tank hard
Sens, lot wrong with that roster, more than Ullmark can fix.
Flyers - no goalie, stayed in race with smoke and mirrors last year- expect them to take a step back- probably dump Konecny at deadline
Wild no sig adds a lot o guys on wrong side of 30, could see them slide back
Pens Guentzel gone, no sig adds, most of the key guys on the wrong side of 35. we may be looking for organic growth- they top guys are in decline mode
Det relying on organic growth too. Added Tarasenko lost Perron seem to be trying to corner market on washed up goalies and d-men
Islanders - kinda old too, Can Patrick work a miracle
Capitals added a lot but who knows seem to be more focused on getting Ovi 895 than anything
Blues another team moving sideways
Tampa Is Guentzel+ Mcdonnough> stamkos+sergachev, if not they are due to regress further too
Jersey/Buffalo/Seattle who knows

Habs will not be better than all those teams but they will be better than some of them, no way they are bottom 5 next yr

 

[Lshap]

After a good draft and FA period I see a bottom five finish. Utah is better. Upgrades there. Columbus is better. Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa goaltender upgrade are better. It is your organic growth vrs others organic growth and upgrades. We add a Kirby Dach. I can not see a bubble playoff year. New Jersey has goaltending . Washington upgraded. Hughes needs to add in the summer and use cap space to avoid a 4th year of bottom 5 finishes.

Sorry, I don't see any logic to this. Montreal’s youth and prospects are considered among the league’s best. Give them time, let them develop, and that core will outpace other teams' cores. That's the entire point of a rebuild.

You don't stock your roster with picks and prospects, and then hijack the process by focusing on upgrades. UFAs and trades are finishing touches, not the foundation.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Another high pick next year is ideal, though I think at this point I’d be looking to trade it for an impact player

 

[Habs Halifax]

It would not be surprising, there's a reason Montreal's Cup odds are 5th worst.

I think they will be improved with continued development, but I still expect a bottom 10 finish, and likely closer to 5 than 10.

Offseason isn't over yet, even though I expect management to err on long term over short.

In Feb last year, we were 7th or 8th last. That was without Dach and plans to trade Monahan.

Youth is 1 year older.

I would not be surprised if we are picking around 5 again or if we are picking 8-12 range. If I had to put money on it, I'd say 8-12.

4 or 5 wins was the difference between 5th last or 10-12 range. Nobody can predict what will happen with teams so tight together like that from 5-12.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sorry, I don't see any logic to this. Montreal’s youth and prospects are considered among the league’s best. Give them time, let them develop, and that core will outpace other teams' cores. That's the entire point of a rebuild.

You don't stock your roster with picks and prospects, and then hijack the process by focusing on upgrades. UFAs and trades are finishing touches, not the foundation.

Agreed.

Look no further than what the Sens did prematurely. Spending big futures on Debrincat and Chychrun.

Leafs signing Tavares helping them move up faster also messed up their chances at drafting studs on D and inserting them on ELC while they had cap issues.

Hughes is not dumb... he's not overpaying for Zegras or Necas or McGroarty or Laine. If the deal fits and it's something we can afford, will do it (Dach and Newhook trades for example).

This is circumstantial in terms of timing of when to make moves and when not too.

 

[Gravity]

Whether we tank or hover around the playoff bubble is solely dependent on the core. You don't want to tank anymore and want to win? Cool, then do it, because if they can't that tells you a lot about the quality/capability of the core (as it stands) moving forward.

 

[JianYang]

This is a rebuild. What are people expecting ? Hutson, Reinbacher and Demidov are all probably 1 year from the NHL and even further away from having an impact. I thought they might add something in UFA but I’d rather be patient than be stuck with contracts like Marchessault/DeBrusk/Edmundson/Monahan/OEL and other garbage that was signed.

Bottom 10 finish at best.

I generally agree with this take. I wouldn't mind a top 6 add on short term deal, but I don't think they should be committing any big money on ufa veterans at this point in time in the types of contracts that we know won't age well.

 

[Walrus26]

Barring catastrophic injuries (again), I'd bet on us being in that 8-14 pick range this coming season. Having a proper 2C playing the lion's share of games for a change will have a big impact, and act as a soft multiplier for the top line's performance at the same time.

And I think we'll be quite watchable, which is at least as important.

 

[CGG]

Pearson, Ylonen, Stephens, White. Total of 153 GP last year, so we averaged 2 of those guys in the lineup each night. 11 goals, 24 points. RHP played 43 games and scored 2 goals. Pezzetta got 3 in 63 games. The bottom of our lineup was littered with unproductive players, and that's not even getting into Dvorak, Gallagher and Anderson (who we're still stuck with). You can't not improve by losing the first 4 guys.

 

[billy piton]

We were 11 points away from drafting 12h. This is 6 more wins. Don't think it would require a massive leap.

at the time of monahan trade, we were one win bellow .500. having dach for the whole season, even with just marginal progression of the young guns, should be enough for at least 82-84 point season. having evans as #4 c instead of #2 c (at times) should also help. not to mention a 6,4% shooting percentage by josh anderson and 8.9% by cole caufield...

 

[Rapala]

An even better metric is xGF/xGA, which ignores goaltending results and hot streaks in shooting %. Last year Habs were the 4th worst team in the league according to pretty much every analytical model out there, and climbed up nearly 15 points in the table mostly because of goaltending and an abundance of OT/SO games. Here's the full league table at the end of last season. Curiously, the two best teams in the regular season also met in the playoffs, where the superior goaltending eventually won.
View attachment 892199

Goaltenders are a huge part of any TEAM.
I grew up watching and interpreting hockey a certain way.
I get it I really do but I don't give a rat's ass about xGF xGA.
All goaltenders bail out defensive errors just like all goaltenders blow angles etc.
If the goaltender is particularly good GREAT. If not time to upgrade.
This expected thing gives me a huge chuckle.
The reason I watch and love hockey is for the Unexpected.

If Habs draft Bottom-5 again, I will consider this a failed season. They need to progress.

Now if they finish Bottom-10 or Bottom-12 and win a lottery and move up, that's a different story.

That will mean they progressed and won a lottery.

They all will.

 

[Rapala]

If they win the first game I'll start the playoffs thread, unless someone else has already started it.

Need one of those Michel Therrien October starts.
I wonder if the back end of the season would look the same where we don't make the playoffs because we couldn't beat the teams we had to.

 

[morhilane]

Need one of those Michel Therrien October starts.
I wonder if the back end of the season would look the same where we don't make the playoffs because we couldn't beat the teams we had to.

Therrien's team were running out of juice by January.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I have us outside the playoffs but we're not going to be bottom five again. And we might surprise people.

The additions of Hutson and Dach make us a much better team. There's a good chance CC has a better season as well. And there are players like Mailloux and Beck who could wind up joining as well. I don't think it's crazy to think we might overdeliver and surprise our way into the postseason. A lot would have to go right but it could happen.

 

[LaP]

Pearson, Ylonen, Stephens, White. Total of 153 GP last year, so we averaged 2 of those guys in the lineup each night. 11 goals, 24 points. RHP played 43 games and scored 2 goals. Pezzetta got 3 in 63 games. The bottom of our lineup was littered with unproductive players, and that's not even getting into Dvorak, Gallagher and Anderson (who we're still stuck with). You can't not improve by losing the first 4 guys.

Like i've said many times most of it will be solved next summer (2025). Dvorak and Armia will be gone and only Gallagher and Anderson will remain and for the time being they can be hidden on a 4th line until they are tradeable or must be bought out.

The lineup in 2025-26 should be :

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Demidov - Dach - ?
Newhook - ? - Roy
Anderson - Evans - Gallagher

In the pipeline we will have Mesar (1 year exp AHL), Beck (1 year exp AHL), Farrell (2 year exp AHL), Tuch (1 year exp AHL), Kapanen (3 years of exp in Europe), Rohrer (2 years of exp in Europe), Florian Xhekaj (1 year exp AHL).

Ideally we should need only one top 6 forward and one 3rd line forward. If none of those kids can play this role we can look at the UFA or trade market in the summer of 2025 now would have been too soon.

Guhle - Matheson
Hutson - Reinbacher
Xhekaj - Mailloux
Struble

In the pipeline we will have Engstrom (3 years of Exp in Europe), Konyushkov (3 years of Exp in Europe). I would be surprised if we need to add a dman unless we trade Matheson and that trade will happen only if it solve the top 6 hole imo.

 

[schwang26]

We were 11 points away from drafting 12h. This is 6 more wins. Don't think it would require a massive leap.

Agreed. People forget all the 1 goal games and ot losses.

 

[domiwroze]

TLDR : Allen leaving is a bigger addition than any other team made this summer.

 

[Rapala]

We actually have the makings of a 2nd line where guys can put up 50 points which is something we've lacked for years.

Absolutely we've never had the benefit of two lines working well at the same time in decades.
It has always seemed like we could only ever get one line going no matter what.
We did have strengths like Price good checking lines and a couple of solid Dmen over the years but never that needed secondary scoring.
I don't even want to think back about the number of series we could have won if we had it.

 

[FLHabs]

A lot will depend on injuries. I don't expect a playoff spot but expect them to be in the 17 to 22 range overall. Drafting just outside the top 10.

Yes we are relying on organic growth, but with close to half the roster 25 and under you will get more organic growth than most teams. The only net growth in the league is organic. For every Nashville adding a couple high end UFAs there is another team who lost the same high end UFA.

Sharks and Hawks were 29 and 24 pts behind us - they have improved but not that much
Ducks were 17 pts behind us and relying on organic growth too
Columbus 10 pts back lost a few players to ufa and at last deadline. added Monahan. doubt they pass us

What about the teams in front of us they didn't all improve

Flames dumped 1/2 their roster since last trade deadline and will tank hard
Sens, lot wrong with that roster, more than Ullmark can fix.
Flyers - no goalie, stayed in race with smoke and mirrors last year- expect them to take a step back- probably dump Konecny at deadline
Wild no sig adds a lot o guys on wrong side of 30, could see them slide back
Pens Guentzel gone, no sig adds, most of the key guys on the wrong side of 35. we may be looking for organic growth- they top guys are in decline mode
Det relying on organic growth too. Added Tarasenko lost Perron seem to be trying to corner market on washed up goalies and d-men
Islanders - kinda old too, Can Patrick work a miracle
Capitals added a lot but who knows seem to be more focused on getting Ovi 895 than anything
Blues another team moving sideways
Tampa Is Guentzel+ Mcdonnough> stamkos+sergachev, if not they are due to regress further too
Jersey/Buffalo/Seattle who knows

Habs will not be better than all those teams but they will be better than some of them, no way they are bottom 5 next yr

That's what I'm thinking also. For sure a playoff spot would be great, but I'm definitely not expecting it. What I'm hoping is for them to somewhat still be in the mix 3/4 through the season at least.

I want to happy when they win or angry when they lose, no more of this apathetic bs.

 

[LaP]

Whether we tank or hover around the playoff bubble is solely dependent on the core. You don't want to tank anymore and want to win? Cool, then do it, because if they can't that tells you a lot about the quality/capability of the core (as it stands) moving forward.

Absolutely 100% agree. Let the kids make it by themselves and then patch holes to win a cup. Keep looking for trades to improve the team but for player fitting the window like Florida did with Forsling, Montour, Bennett and Reainhart.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

I have no problem being bottom 5 again , in fact I would love it

i heard the draft is really strong next year.