Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[Adam Michaels]

If Habs draft Bottom-5 again, I will consider this a failed season. They need to progress.

Now if they finish Bottom-10 or Bottom-12 and win a lottery and move up, that's a different story.

That will mean they progressed and won a lottery.

 

[Slafkofield]

The pick will be closer to 10-12 than top 5 imo. Having Dach in the lineup (50-60 pts), Cole will score more, Slaf/Newhook/Roy will have better seasons. Adding Lane, the PP will be better too. Plus, I see us trading for Laine, he has 2 years left on his deal, Kent was offering FAs 2 year contracts…

 

[Habs7631]

This is not a tank year. It's more an examination.

This.

A lot questions in the air that will be answered this year.

 

[Miller Time]

I'd be very surprised to see us finish bottom 5 unless it's due to yet another year of being among the top teams for injury games lost.

 

[Egresch]

Baring some key injuries and potential top 6 acquisition I expect us to improve to 82+ points. Not sure how that transforms to standings, but I expect that the gap between top and bottom teams will be lower. Florida, Carolina, Boston, Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia will all be worse than last season.

 

[Walrus26]

I don't think the young, new-core, players (Suzuki, Slaf, CC, Dach, possibly Guhle) will be happy with another bottom 5 finish. They want to compete.

 

[Sorinth]

Barring major injuries it seems doubtful to me that we will finish bottom 5 again. We've gone from 55 to 68 to 76 points, our GF has gone from 2.66 to 2.77 to 2.83, our GA has gone from 3.87 to 3.72 to 3.43.

Seems more likely those trends will continue and we will end up in the mid 80s points wise and be closer to a playoff spot then we are to a bottom 5 finish.

 

[Sorinth]

Canadiens don't seem to have the capability to prevent high danger shots and chances from happening. They also get hemmed in their zone constantly. I doubt the young defense coming in will improve things much.

If Montembeault becomes the super average goalie he actually is, watch out. It looks like (on paper of course) that the teams around us improved. We could be even worse than last year, Dach or no Dach.

And what, you don't think teams like Buffalo, Philly, or Detroit don't also bleed high danger shots and get hemmed in their zone constantly because they do all the time. We don't havet have to be amazing defensively to get out of the bottom-5.

 

[Fuonki]

I'm setting my sights on the GF/GA differential as the measuring stick not the standings.
Take care of that and the standings will take care of themself.

An even better metric is xGF/xGA, which ignores goaltending results and hot streaks in shooting %. Last year Habs were the 4th worst team in the league according to pretty much every analytical model out there, and climbed up nearly 15 points in the table mostly because of goaltending and an abundance of OT/SO games. Here's the full league table at the end of last season. Curiously, the two best teams in the regular season also met in the playoffs, where the superior goaltending eventually won.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

And what, you don't think teams like Buffalo, Philly, or Detroit don't also bleed high danger shots and get hemmed in their zone constantly because they do all the time. We don't havet have to be amazing defensively to get out of the bottom-5.

Well, there's also that whole thing where we're terrible offensively...

Being bad at offense and bad at defense is not exactly a recipe for success. Let's say Dach somehow stays healthy and manages to replace Monahan. Is Hutson, a rookie defenseman, supposed to make up the rest?

I'm not saying it's guaranteed they'll be as bad. I'm just saying it's as likely as it is unlikely. Lots of other factors could screw us, like our young D being even worse defensively, or Monty and Primeau (or Matheson) coming back to Earth. Or teams not playing their backup against us in 75% of games. I'm not necessarily pulling for a full blown tank season this year, but one wouldn't surprise me.

 

[salbutera]

This + Dach are the two main reasons the Habs will battle w Det/Buf/Sens for last wildcard spot



Top-10 PP upcoming..

 

[SOLR]

Full time dach will make a difference. To lesser degree, so will full time newhook.

I don't expect playoffs at all but I think there's potential here to climb out of the bottom 5 next year.

It will come down to health quite a bit because the depth isn't quite there.

This. that's why I'm still expecting a trade for a good top 6 player. Hughes is waiting for teams to feel that their work is more done. None of the Necas/Zegras etc. have moved yet.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Maybe. For me, the wild card is the defense. A strong d-core can prop up a weak forward group.

They don't all have to hit their potential, but any combo of Guhle, Hutson, Reinbacher, Struble, Barron, Harris, Xhekaj taking the next step in their development could change a lot for the club.

I agree with this. That did, I feel Dach is the real wild card. He represents such a pivotal piece in our line up. How many one goal losses last year could have been different with a solid second line center?

 

[Egresch]

Ways to improve, most of them can be organic:
- no more 3 goalie system
- hopefully we get rid of that stupid man marking D system in our own zone
- Dach will hopefully stay healthy and be an upgrade to Monahan
- PP and PK improvement
- one more top 6 acquisition

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Barring and major additions can’t see how we are not bottom 5

If we are fully healthy and PP improves a lot might get us bottom 10

And I’m 100% ok with that and start trying to contend next season after we add another core piece

 

[Sorinth]

Well, there's also that whole thing where we're terrible offensively...

Again look at the other bubble teams, they aren't amazing offensively either, Philly had one player hit 60 points, two that hit 50 points. Buffalo didn't have a single 60 point player, etc...

Being bad at offense and bad at defense is not exactly a recipe for success. Let's say Dach somehow stays healthy and manages to replace Monahan. Is Hutson, a rookie defenseman, supposed to make up the rest?

I'm not saying it's guaranteed they'll be as bad. I'm just saying it's as likely as it is unlikely. Lots of other factors could screw us, like our young D being even worse defensively, or Monty and Primeau (or Matheson) coming back to Earth. Or teams not playing their backup against us in 75% of games. I'm not necessarily pulling for a full blown tank season this year, but one wouldn't surprise me.

Look anything can happen, but the most likely thing to happen is that we continue to do what we've done over the past 2 years and have slight improvements in points, GF, GAs, etc... And if your looking for individual player improvements. Slaf is likely to improve drastically on his 50 points given that he spent the first third of the year not producing much before finally putting it together, Caufield's likely to have his shooting % improve at least a few points and score more goals, Suzuki has yet to have an NHL season where he didn't improve his production from the year before and given he actually has linemates this year that's likely to continue again. We actually have the makings of a 2nd line where guys can put up 50 points which is something we've lacked for years. As for goaltending Allen was the worst of the 3, so if anything we are likely to improve in that regard.

 

[dcyhabs]

Not playing Allen and adding one or two young guys will make for a bottom ten finish instead of bottom five. It’s a great draft and the habs will play well enough to get a good player, not a great one. Some teams that have no shame about tanking will get some great players.

Most of the habs moves have been good. The main issues were starting with a boring style of play, do that there is really nothing fun when they lose, and getting D and G working before getting any offense. The D is still far from a strength and the goal tending probably isn’t a long term solution, but it got them points they didn’t want.

You don’t want to build like Buffalo, but you absolutely want to tank shamelessly like Pittsburgh back in the day or Chicago recently. The losing is only worth it for the teams that come out with picks who move the needle. The habs got better but they are still missing top guys. Not easy to fix.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Tank for two more seasons.

 

[Sorinth]

Not sure the exact dates on when the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line was put together but it was roughly the final 50ish games. And if we look at the combined goal scoring of those 3 before/after it tells the tale, first 32 games they combined for 20 goals, during the final 50 they combined for 61 goals.

That's almost 20 extra goals we could expect over a full season next year with zero actual changes. So yeah the lineup this year vs last year isn't likely to be much different, but that doesn't mean you should expect the same results.

 

[Mikah]

Barring and major additions can’t see how we are not bottom 5

If we are fully healthy and PP improves a lot might get us bottom 10

And I’m 100% ok with that and start trying to contend next season after we add another core piece

I kind of agree with this..

I don't see any teams at the top going down much, and many teams that will likely be fighting for a wild card spot next year made several moves towards improving their roster, including Buffalo, Detroit, New Jersey, Tampa Bay and Washington.

I don't see Montreal suddenly winning against those teams next season, and they will see a lot of them.

Nothing was really done to improve the team. All they can hope for is more progression from the young guys, and a healthy Dach and roster. I am not sure that will be enough to really improve the standing. They are very likely to be in a similar position as last year (75-80 pts).

 

[Mrb1p]

Yes. If it all remains the same it's straight to bottom 5 again.

 

[Trabdy2]

If Habs draft Bottom-5 again, I will consider this a failed season. They need to progress.

Now if they finish Bottom-10 or Bottom-12 and win a lottery and move up, that's a different story.

That will mean they progressed and won a lottery.

I agree, we need to see progress this season, and we need to equip ourselves for it. Our younger players are still maturing their games and improving, but I feel like we need to add a forward to play in our Top 6 in order to ensure we have enough scoring consistency, depth, and stability. We essentially need what Monahan brought us last year.

I'd like to see us rise out of the Bottom 10 this year and play meaningful games until maybe just the last few weeks of the season.

 

[FLHabs]

I think some of y'all forget the record number of 1 goal games they had last year. The team wasn't as bad as their record showed. With a healthy Dach and second half Slaf for the whole year, I expect and hope to see improvement.

I'm done with tanking, I want to see meaningful hockey again.

 

[LaP]

Same, as long as Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf and Monty are all out on LTIR

Why?

If they have what it takes they'll make the playoffs eventually by themselves. If they don't then it means we need to draft new toys. Crosby and Malkin never needed help to just make the playoffs. Ovy never needed help to just make the playoffs. Same for McJesus and Drasaitl. All those guys made the playoffs with some pretty average lineup. In 2006-2007 Crosby and Malkin made the playoffs and the 4th most productive forward on the team was Michel Ouellett. Let that sink in.

The whole concept that missing the playoffs will have any negative impact on our kids is imo ridiculous. If those kids are good enough we'll make the playoffs. Elite players don't need help to make the playoffs. They have an impact on the team and make players around them better. Where they need help is to win a cup.

We'll see in the next two years if those kids have what it takes by letting them make the playoffs by themselves without trying to skip a step like Detroit (huge mistake by Detroit imo). After that it will be the time to bring in some help to go far in playoffs. If those kids can't make it then we'll finish low and draft new ones. Personally i think the kids we have will finish around 22th this season and minimum fight for a playoffs spot in 2025-26 without major help. Don't see KH moving before summer 2025.

 

[Doublechin]

It would take massive leaps of young talent and a healthy Dach for us to finish with the 10th to 12th pick as many are saying

If progression is standard and nothing astronomical ,(Caufield scoring 45 or Slaf becoming a ppg player) and Dach gives up 50or so points and plays 70 plus, I think we could finish with the 8th pick pre lottery