Proposal: H. Fleury To Montreal

[Marc Bergevin]

What would it take?

Maybe

To Carolina : Arturri Lehkonen, 2019 4th Round Pick, Mike Reilly
To Montreal : Hayden Fleury, 2019 3rd Round Pick

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[FreshSeabass]

We have a ton of prospects/players the same caliber as Lehkonen. Really don't see a deal to be had for Fleury. As others have said Fleury will be an add in a bigger deal or we just keep him.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

He was a 7OA. Find a good comparable.

 

[GoldiFox]

The way Fleury has been deployed he has developed into a bust for his draft spot. Similar to Michael Dal Colle (#5 in 2014) and Jake Virtanen (#6 in 2014). These guys are unfortunately all not worth much. Fleury might have the highest value due to positional upside. Best case they can move him in a deal similar to Rask for Nino. Trade Fleury's upside for a better player who makes too much or is a rental.

He isn't worth much more than Lehkonen, but I don't see why the Canes would trade him for Lehkonen. From Montreal the Canes would be more likely to target Tatar or Shaw.

Bleedgreen mentioned Puljujarvi for Fleury which is probably as good as the Canes would get in a like-for-like swap.

 

[DaveG]

Reilly is legitimately of negative value to us in any trade as he would simply be lost to waivers after camp.

As stated above Lehkonen doesn't do much for us that a guy like say Geekie won't be able to as soon as next season.

Just looking at the two rosters, Montreal isn't a good fit trade wise shy of you guys offering up a first. Just not seeing a struggling but high upside player unless there is someone that's on the outs.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The way Fleury has been deployed he has developed into a bust for his draft spot. Similar to Michael Dal Colle (#5 in 2014) and Jake Virtanen (#6 in 2014).

He's still young enough and has got enough upside that we shouldn't be giving him away for third rounders or grinders. And you're right: Puljujarvi is likely the comparable.

I really wonder how that kid would do in a Brindy-run environment. He could thrive, or disappear. Feels like no in between.

 

[Chrispy]

Reilly is legitimately of negative value to us in any trade as he would simply be lost to waivers after camp.

As stated above Lehkonen doesn't do much for us that a guy like say Geekie won't be able to as soon as next season.

Just looking at the two rosters, Montreal isn't a good fit trade wise shy of you guys offering up a first. Just not seeing a struggling but high upside player unless there is someone that's on the outs.

Agreed. Carolina has 3 2nd round picks already, so even a mid-round 2nd isn't a great need.

Lehkonen is similar to plenty of guys the Canes have been developing in Charlotte and they would be more likely to give the Checkers a shot than acquire someone else.

A right-handed C in the AHL or bottom 6 might be more intriguing. But despite Dreger's comment, the Canes may hold onto defensive depth while de Haan and TVR recover from surgery. If they aren't ready to start the season, the depth chart is:

Slavin-Hamilton
Bean-Pesce
Fleury/McKeown-Faulk
McKeown/Fleury

And if Bean struggles out of the gate, he's still waiver exempt to go back to Charlotte once one of the other D is healthy.

 

[emptyNedder]

What would it take?

Maybe

To Carolina : Arturri Lehkonen, 2019 4th Round Pick, Mike Reilly
To Montreal : Hayden Fleury, 2019 3rd Round Pick

I am probably alone in this.

Fleury for Ylonen and one of the 2019 2nds. As mentioned, Fleury is not a key part of the D plans moving forward. Ylonen would give the Canes another shot at developing Williams' replacement in the next 2 years. The 2nd would allow the Canes to try and move up this draft if there is a player they covet.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I am probably alone in this.

Fleury for Ylonen and one of the 2019 2nds. As mentioned, Fleury is not a key part of the D plans moving forward. Ylonen would give the Canes another shot at developing Williams' replacement in the next 2 years. The 2nd would allow the Canes to try and move up this draft if there is a player they covet.

2 2nds for a 1st, basically. The math is about right if the fit is good.

 

[DaveG]

I am probably alone in this.

Fleury for Ylonen and one of the 2019 2nds. As mentioned, Fleury is not a key part of the D plans moving forward. Ylonen would give the Canes another shot at developing Williams' replacement in the next 2 years. The 2nd would allow the Canes to try and move up this draft if there is a player they covet.

I wouldn't loathe that. I'd try to parlay Fleury and say the Buffalo 2nd in to Ylonen and the Montreal 1st instead though

 

[Dishface]

He was a 7OA. Find a good comparable.

His was drafted in 2014, his draft position doesnt add any value 5 years later. Same argument people made with Yakupov and look at his return...

 

[Navin R Slavin]

His was drafted in 2014, his draft position doesnt add any value 5 years later. Same argument people made with Yakupov and look at his return...

Sure it does, especially for a 22 year old defenseman. I'm not saying he should bring back a top 10 pick, but that draft positioning still accurately reflects his upside. He's worth a mid-round first, two seconds, or a comparable young asset.

From all reports, Fleury works hard. Yakupov did not. That's the difference between a mild disappointment and a complete bust.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I personally agree with the he's nowhere near a 1st in value. We aren't likely to get much use out of him in a trade if it's not as a package, unless we are just cutting our losses completely. I didn't think he was great the year he was up with us pretty much the entire year, and I didn't think he was good with us at any point this year. Maybe he'll figure it out, but I haven't seen anything that makes me think he will to this point. I haven't liked him offensively, or defensively to this point.

As mentioned, I'd like to see someone offer anything close to the value of a 1st for some of the scrubs from Fleury's draft that were picked near him, cause that's what he is to this point.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Fleury may not be a core piece, but he’s a 22 year old with nearly 100 games of NHL experience who looks in-place on a third pairing. This is a guy who’s likely to play another 15 years at a low price point.

It’s very, very easy to undervalue a young player like this, right up to the point that you trade him away and spend the next decade trying to replace him with overpaid UFAs and AHL garbage.

I’m not saying he’s top 10 pick worthy. But we absolutely shouldn’t trade that kind of asset for less than a solid 1st. He has way more value to us than a truly borderline prospect, regardless of upside.

 

[emptyNedder]

I’m not saying he’s top 10 pick worthy. But we absolutely shouldn’t trade that kind of asset for less than a solid 1st. He has way more value to us than a truly borderline prospect, regardless of upside.

I agree. However, once he needs to clear waivers only one other organization has to value Fleury like you do. Then the options are to keep Fleury in Raleigh even if he isn't playing or lose him for nothing. A fan from another team asked the price for Fleury. If a GM does the same, then Waddell would be smart to take a reasonable offer now while Fleury is waiver exempt.

 

[Weltschmerz]

He was a 7OA. Find a good comparable.

Alex Nylander?

 

[bleedgreen]

Fleury may not be a core piece, but he’s a 22 year old with nearly 100 games of NHL experience who looks in-place on a third pairing. This is a guy who’s likely to play another 15 years at a low price point.

It’s very, very easy to undervalue a young player like this, right up to the point that you trade him away and spend the next decade trying to replace him with overpaid UFAs and AHL garbage.

I’m not saying he’s top 10 pick worthy. But we absolutely shouldn’t trade that kind of asset for less than a solid 1st. He has way more value to us than a truly borderline prospect, regardless of upside.

Yup. Every team in the league would love to have a Fleury. I’ve been comparing him to TVR and I think he’s very likely to at least make it to that level. Fleury is a guy who comes back more confident every year. I’m sure he was capable of a legit step forward this season but DW never made the move and Rod chooses vets. He was likely pretty frustrated. I’d love to have him watch CDH up close every day.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Fleury may not be a core piece, but he’s a 22 year old with nearly 100 games of NHL experience who looks in-place on a third pairing. This is a guy who’s likely to play another 15 years at a low price point.

It’s very, very easy to undervalue a young player like this, right up to the point that you trade him away and spend the next decade trying to replace him with overpaid UFAs and AHL garbage.

I’m not saying he’s top 10 pick worthy. But we absolutely shouldn’t trade that kind of asset for less than a solid 1st. He has way more value to us than a truly borderline prospect, regardless of upside.

You can't look at Fleury in a vacuum like that. You have to look at him in terms of our team. The waiver rules exist for exactly this situation. They are set up to make sure Fleury gets the chance to be what you think he can be with another club, if he's not going to get it here. And he's not going to get it here. We're too deep. If he's going to be a bottom-pairing contributor for 15 years, he's going to have to do it with another club. And if we're eventually going to lose him to waivers, we should trade him before that happens.

I'm not saying he doesn't have value. He's all the things you said he is. But value is about more than just a player profile. The harsh truth is that if a guy hasn't established himself by his draft year plus five, he's probably going to have to go to another organization to have that career. In other words, we're about to lose him for nothing, so the value takes a hit.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You can't look at Fleury in a vacuum like that. You have to look at him in terms of our team. The waiver rules exist for exactly this situation. They are set up to make sure Fleury gets the chance to be what you think he can be with another club, if he's not going to get it here. And he's not going to get it here. We're too deep. If he's going to be a bottom-pairing contributor for 15 years, he's going to have to do it with another club. And if we're eventually going to lose him to waivers, we should trade him before that happens.

I'm not saying he doesn't have value. He's all the things you said he is. But value is about more than just a player profile. The harsh truth is that if a guy hasn't established himself by his draft year plus five, he's probably going to have to go to another organization to have that career. In other words, we're about to lose him for nothing, so the value takes a hit.

If he's actually on the verge of being put on waivers, I totally agree. Losing him for nothing would be silly, if someone's willing to give us something for him.

That said, I think of Fleury as a pretty strong candidate for a pressbox rolerather than waiver or trade bait. Skillset-wise he's easy to slip in and out of the lineup, and career-stage-wise he's arriving at a point where time in the minors is going to stop being so important. Ideally I'd like to see him start the season as our 7D, with the understanding that he'll either get his shot either through injury replacement or be rotated periodically with TVR. That gives us a reasonable level of early season injury/doghouse insurance in the d-group, and some leverage in future decisions as well. If someone comes to us with THE TRADE for Hamilton or Faulk, then we can make it a 1-for-1 without needing to get a dman back the other way. And if we somehow get to the end of the season without major changes, Fleury's performance would help inform our decision whether (and for how much) to extend TVR's contract.

Of course, if waiving him becomes truly inevitable (Bean comes out and smokes everyone in camp, staking a clear claim to next-in-line status) then we do what we have to do. But losing a player like him on a waiver-motivated trade is one of those little papercuts I would rather avoid.

 

[My Special Purpose]

If he's actually on the verge of being put on waivers, I totally agree. Losing him for nothing would be silly, if someone's willing to give us something for him.

That said, I think of Fleury as a pretty strong candidate for a pressbox rolerather than waiver or trade bait. Skillset-wise he's easy to slip in and out of the lineup, and career-stage-wise he's arriving at a point where time in the minors is going to stop being so important. Ideally I'd like to see him start the season as our 7D, with the understanding that he'll either get his shot either through injury replacement or be rotated periodically with TVR. That gives us a reasonable level of early season injury/doghouse insurance in the d-group, and some leverage in future decisions as well. If someone comes to us with THE TRADE for Hamilton or Faulk, then we can make it a 1-for-1 without needing to get a dman back the other way. And if we somehow get to the end of the season without major changes, Fleury's performance would help inform our decision whether (and for how much) to extend TVR's contract.

Of course, if waiving him becomes truly inevitable (Bean comes out and smokes everyone in camp, staking a clear claim to next-in-line status) then we do what we have to do. But losing a player like him on a waiver-motivated trade is one of those little papercuts I would rather avoid.

OK, I agree with you. But let's take this one step further. As fake GMs, we can't get caught in a bad situation, so we have to think this all the way through. Knowing what we know about the players involved (Bean, Fleury, Sellgren), and our team needs, what's *likely* to happen?

Given our depth and players coming on the left side and how they fit team needs, it seems likely that Fleury will eventually face the chopping block here. If that's the case, isn't it better to get out in front of it instead of being backed into a corner down the road?

 

[spockBokk]

I won’t be surprised if they deal Fleury and I’d think they won’t have a problem getting reasonable value for him. But, with the uncertainties due to the injuries to CDH and TVR, I’d imagine they are in no rush to move on from Fleury. He’s really the only option for NHL minutes outside of Slavin/Pesce/Faulk/Hamilton if the other 2 guys aren’t ready at the beginning of next season.

I like him as the 7th D next year, alternating with Bean as needed. He’ll be cheap, has a good attitude and I think still has plenty of potential to end up a CDH -lite 2nd pairing mainstay. Deal with the potential logjam when everyone is healthy. Teams always are looking for cheap young D.

 

[Chrispy]

Add in McKeown for those discussions; it complicates matters that there are 2 who are waiver eligible this year. Do the Canes carry 8 D at times to retain them all? 6 + 2 IR (TVR, CdH) to start the season?

In terms of beyond this year, that depends on the plans for Faulk & TVR. Sounds like they want to talk contract with Faulk, but will the terms be too rich? What is the plan with TVR? Letting him play out his contract and backfilling with Fleury/McKeown/Bean makes sense to me.

Sellgren (and Martin) are on a longer-term development plan.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

OK, I agree with you. But let's take this one step further. As fake GMs, we can't get caught in a bad situation, so we have to think this all the way through. Knowing what we know about the players involved (Bean, Fleury, Sellgren), and our team needs, what's *likely* to happen?

Given our depth and players coming on the left side and how they fit team needs, it seems likely that Fleury will eventually face the chopping block here. If that's the case, isn't it better to get out in front of it instead of being backed into a corner down the road?

To me this is the ultimate question, and I think I have a different take than you on it.

The fact of the matter is that when guys aren't full time NHLers, their value is skewed and lessened regardless of circumstances. Adam Fox is one of the very few exceptions, but even then it was due to a unique situation in which he made it clear he didn't want to be here.

Any trade of Fleury at this point, straight up, would get us what, a 3rd? If he's not an NHLer he's still a "prospect" in the minds of many, and prospects don't usually move for something useful.

So what's the value of getting out in front of it? The 3rd round pick we'd get for him?

Now, if we're playing the forecasting game (which, as I said, I 100% agree with you that we should and need to think about this all the way through to the end), there's another timeline in which Fleury starts the year in the top 6 due to TVR's injury. I think it was 6 months back at the beginning of May? So he'll miss a full month of the season which puts Fleury in the lineup (even if we don't move another dman out). So say he plays that month, scores an NHL goal or two, and generally holds down a regular shift. Now the narrative around the league (and as much as we'd like to give GMs and scouts more credit, narrative still rules the day in many cases) is that the Canes are getting TVR back and will have a logjam, and now they have a legit young NHL player on the block. Which, to be clear, is what many of us believe is the situation anyway (I personally think he's more of a non-prospect than many, but I bow to the hivemind for the purpose of the argument).


It'd be the same thing in Edmonton by the way. If Puljujarvi starts the year in Edmonton and puts up .5 PPG (even next to McDavid), he'd net them way more than if they traded him right now. Fleury's in the same boat, and when the difference between "getting ahead of a logjam" and seeing how this will play out is like a 3rd round pick, I'm more inclined to see how it'll play out. Even just the label "young NHL defenseman" vs. "NHL/AHL tweener" can significantly change the way he's viewed around the league, and recoup some value fairly quickly.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Sellgren (and Martin) are on a longer-term development plan.

You're right that Faulk is the key, but I completely disagree with this. Martin, sure, since he's not even signed. But the Canes are obviously moving very quickly on Sellgren because he is way ahead of schedule. He plays a simple game, moves well and has a high hockey IQ. I think the team would be comfortable with Sellgren in the NHL next season. I don't see it happening because of our depth, but if it did, I don't think anybody would panic.

 

[My Special Purpose]

scores an NHL goal or two

Whoa, whoa, whoa ... let me stop you right there ...