Grub's Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Early Trade Deadline

[thecupismine]

are you looking at all sits, vs 5v5? because the only Canucks defender under 45 (5v5) is Soucy at 43.52

If you look at raw numbers, that’s correct. However, if you dig into pairings data, no Canuck pairing without Hughes, Hronek or Brannstrom is above 45 with more than 20 minutes played.

The most common pairings lately, Soucy/Juulsen and Forbert/VD are between 40-43. For context on how bad that is, those are the figures you’d historically expect out of really poor third pairings or lottery teams.

The reason everyone’s raw numbers look better than that is Hughes double shifts with them and pumps up their numbers a fair bit.

 

[TruGr1t]

Not sure I agree. For arguments sake let’s say the guy they acquire is able to saw off their minutes at a 45% expected goal rate, which is hardly a big ask (slightly below Ian Cole’s level last year).

I’m usually defensive of Tocchet, but let’s say he also pulls his head out of his ass and plays Brannstrom on the third pairing in soft minutes, and he’s able to put up 47-50% expected goal rate (reasonable given his early season performance imo).

At that point, the defense is passable given how stupidly dominant Hughes and Hronek have been when they played together. The issue right now is those other pairings are sub 40 because no one can pass the puck.

I don’t think the asks are that difficult on the other pairings (coaching adjustment + player quality in the acquisition), but they represent a massive change (10%+) over what’s currently occurring in non Quinn Hughes minutes.

We'll see. Effectively you want Desharnais, Juulsen, Forbort and Brannstrom probably out of the line-up most nights. I don't really see a path towards that through in-season acqusition, and due to the cap I think you'll need at least one ELC to take the defense to the next level in the next couple seasons. You can no doubt improve it by taking 2 of those 4 out, but I don't think any of them should really be blue-line mainstays at this point.

 

[Jerry the great]

If you look at raw numbers, that’s correct. However, if you dig into pairings data, no Canuck pairing without Hughes, Hronek or Brannstrom is above 45 with more than 20 minutes played.

The most common pairings lately, Soucy/Juulsen and Forbert/VD are between 40-43. For context on how bad that is, those are the figures you’d historically expect out of really poor third pairings or lottery teams.

The reason everyone’s raw numbers look better than that is Hughes double shifts with them and pumps up their numbers a fair bit.

I'm not trying to sugar coat the issue, i just never look at all strengths for any of the diff numbers. To get a sense of how well a defender is keeping his head above water (or not) I look at 5v5 numbers and adjust for quality of opp/tm and how they're deployed.

Since Hronek's injury, the situation is a mess and short of bringing in a legitimate #3 defender (or better) it won't change IMO. To weather the storm, the best we can hope for is total defensive buy-in from the forwards and above average goaltending.

Brannstrom has been unplayable over his last ten games....he has serious limitations due to lack of size/strength and below average mobility. moves the puck well enough, but he's so small and slow he needs to be hidden, which we were able to do for a bit. heaven help him when the other team gets possession in our zone and he has to try and break the cycle. IMO, he's a 6/7 defender on an ambitious contender.

 

[ziploc]

Blueline is such a mess.

Best I can imagine is Hronek gets back and we make a trade for a LD. Try to give VD to another team.

Hughes - Myers (ugh)
Mystery LD - Hronek
Soucy - Brannstrom/Forbort/Juulsen/Willander

Then play the crap out of Hughes - Hronek when we really need to tilt the ice.

 

[thecupismine]

I'm not trying to sugar coat the issue, i just never look at all strengths for any of the diff numbers. To get a sense of how well a defender is keeping his head above water (or not) I look at 5v5 numbers and adjust for quality of opp/tm and how they're deployed.

Since Hronek's injury, the situation is a mess and short of bringing in a legitimate #3 defender (or better) it won't change IMO. To weather the storm, the best we can hope for is total defensive buy-in from the forwards and above average goaltending.

Brannstrom has been unplayable over his last ten games....he has serious limitations due to lack of size/strength and below average mobility. moves the puck well enough, but he's so small and slow he needs to be hidden, which we were able to do for a bit. heaven help him when the other team gets possession in our zone and he has to try and break the cycle. IMO, he's a 6/7 defender on an ambitious contender.

To clarify my numbers are 5 vs 5, and I isolated Quinn’s effect by looking at 5 on 5 pairing data to see how everyone is performing when he’s not on the ice. It’s not pretty.

I get the Brannstrom point too, but I think people are weighting the (legitimate) defensive flaws too heavily and not weighing the zero passing skills aspect of the other guys heavily enough.

We'll see. Effectively you want Desharnais, Juulsen, Forbort and Brannstrom probably out of the line-up most nights. I don't really see a path towards that through in-season acqusition, and due to the cap I think you'll need at least one ELC to take the defense to the next level in the next couple seasons. You can no doubt improve it by taking 2 of those 4 out, but I don't think any of them should really be blue-line mainstays at this point.

While I agree you’d want those guys out most nights in an ideal world, I was trying to paint a picture of how you can get to respectability using the pieces they have with performance data from this year to back it up.

A sheltered third pairing with Brannstrom can perform just fine (does require Tocchet to buy into it), so if they can acquire a second pairing guy who doesn’t get absolutely buried in some tough minutes, they’re in an ok spot.

 

[JT Milker]

Blueline is such a mess.

Best I can imagine is Hronek gets back and we make a trade for a LD. Try to give VD to another team.

Hughes - Myers (ugh)
Mystery LD - Hronek
Soucy - Brannstrom/Forbort/Juulsen/Willander

Then play the crap out of Hughes - Hronek when we really need to tilt the ice.

Hughes Hronek
Soucy/LD RD/Soucy
Whatever combo of Myers/Forbert/Juulsen/Branstrom/Willander

They need someone that can control play for that second pairing, preferably a RD that could also play with Hughes if needed. Team will contend if they can do that + get Miller and EP going at the same time.

 

[mriswith]

It's crazy that Brannstrom sits out because of defensive issues while Juulsen can single handedly cause a constant stream of goals against and stay in the lineup.

Brannstrom's not a permanent or long term solution, as soon as we trade for a 2LD (and we should asap) that shoves Soucy down he can get punted back to the press box but for now we desperately need the puck movement. Even a sheltered 10 minutes/night would go a long way.

 

[ziploc]

Hughes Hronek
Soucy/LD RD/Soucy
Whatever combo of Myers/Forbert/Juulsen/Branstrom/Willander

They need someone that can control play for that second pairing, preferably a RD that could also play with Hughes if needed. Team will contend if they can do that + get Miller and EP going at the same time.

If Soucy regains his game we are in much better shape. But if not, I think they need to separate Hughes and Hronek at least on occasion to provide some balance.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

It's crazy that Brannstrom sits out because of defensive issues while Juulsen can single handedly cause a constant stream of goals against and stay in the lineup.

Brannstrom's not a permanent or long term solution, as soon as we trade for a 2LD (and we should asap) that shoves Soucy down he can get punted back to the press box but for now we desperately need the puck movement. Even a sheltered 10 minutes/night would go a long way.

We absolutely need him in the line up with Hronek out. It really doesn’t matter if Juulsen, Desharnais, etc are better defensively if they continually give the puck right back in the defensive zone.

 

[Jerry the great]

It's crazy that Brannstrom sits out because of defensive issues while Juulsen can single handedly cause a constant stream of goals against and stay in the lineup.

Brannstrom's not a permanent or long term solution, as soon as we trade for a 2LD (and we should asap) that shoves Soucy down he can get punted back to the press box but for now we desperately need the puck movement. Even a sheltered 10 minutes/night would go a long way.

Brannstrom can tread water if he gets put out almost exclusively in the O-Zone or against the other teams worst forwards. he has no special teams utility and has been on the ice for more 5v5 goals than Juulsen this year.

Juulsen routinely gets tasked with harder matchups in more difficult deployment scenarios, and he has PK utility (which is why he's playing currently with Hronek out).

In a perfect world, neither of these guys should be higher in the line up than #6/7

 

[brock hughes007]

Hughes Hronek
Soucy/LD RD/Soucy
Whatever combo of Myers/Forbert/Juulsen/Branstrom/Willander

They need someone that can control play for that second pairing, preferably a RD that could also play with Hughes if needed. Team will contend if they can do that + get Miller and EP going at the same time.

After watching the Sharks game last night
and barley winning.This team is still really bad.I am really having a hard time believing that the players are buying into Tocchets system.Without making significant defense moves soon I just do not see this team making the playoffs.
That ball is in Alvin's court.

 

[LemonSauceD]

If Soucy regains his game we are in much better shape. But if not, I think they need to separate Hughes and Hronek at least on occasion to provide some balance.

At this point Soucy has played about the level he’s at right now for much longer than the good 25 game stretch coming back to the line up between two injuries last season.

 

[valkynax]

After watching the Sharks game last night
and barley winning.This team is still really bad.I am really having a hard time believing that the players are buying into Tocchets system.Without making significant defense moves soon I just do not see this team making the playoffs.
That ball is in Alvin's court.

I myself would not look down on the Sharks too much. They have a lot of good pieces to follow the charge of Celebrini, and watching them feels so much better than a pathetic team like the Chicago Bedards. Also, they forced Oilers into OT before playing us. All jokes aside, the Oilers are making very steady progress and is hell-bent on returning to the finals.

Defense is our biggest problem for sure. Our front office will need to address it, there's no doubt.

The bottom line is, there's no such thing as easy wins - if you think the game will be an easy one then you've already lost.

I guess with all that random gibberish I just mumbled I meant to say: we won, give the boys some credit, and the Sharks are not to be underestimated.

 

[mriswith]

Brannstrom can tread water if he gets put out almost exclusively in the O-Zone or against the other teams worst forwards. he has no special teams utility and has been on the ice for more 5v5 goals than Juulsen this year.

Juulsen routinely gets tasked with harder matchups in more difficult deployment scenarios, and he has PK utility (which is why he's playing currently with Hronek out).

In a perfect world, neither of these guys should be higher in the line up than #6/7

At 5v5:

Juulsen:
8 GF
15 GA

Brannstrom:
14 GF
16 GA

This isn't an argument against Brannstrom. One extra goal against but 6 extra goals for, give me that every day of the week. Also Brannstrom has about 50% ozone starts, Juulsen gets way less than that but that's as much because it's a crime against humanity to watch Juulsen in the ozone as it is because he's relied on to defend.

Sure neither should be regulars in the lineup but 5 of our current defensemen don't belong outside the bottom pairing, we aren't in a perfect situation. We are desperate for someone who can consistently move the puck and Brannstrom is the only one who actually can other than Hughes. As soon as we acquire a legit 2LD it will shove Soucy down a pair and we can punt Brannstrom back out of the lineup but until then we need the puck moving.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I myself would not look down on the Sharks too much. They have a lot of good pieces to follow the charge of Celebrini, and watching them feels so much better than a pathetic team like the Chicago Bedards. Also, they forced Oilers into OT before playing us. All jokes aside, the Oilers are making very steady progress and is hell-bent on returning to the finals.

Defense is our biggest problem for sure. Our front office will need to address it, there's no doubt.

The bottom line is, there's no such thing as easy wins - if you think the game will be an easy one then you've already lost.

I guess with all that random gibberish I just mumbled I meant to say: we won, give the boys some credit, and the Sharks are not to be underestimated.

Sharks are going to be good, and soon.

They’ve stockpiled some excellent young forwards while insulating them with some quality vets, and Askarov is a really nice piece in net. If they can flesh out a blueline and continue developing like they have been, they’ll be a major threat in short order.

 

[valkynax]

Sharks are going to be good, and soon.

They’ve stockpiled some excellent young forwards while insulating them with some quality vets, and Askarov is a really nice piece in net. If they can flesh out a blueline and continue developing like they have been, they’ll be a major threat in short order.

And I cannot stress this enough: watching them vs watching Chicago, it feels like night and day. To me SJS is so much further ahead of their rebuild.

For SJS Celebrini is obviously the center of attention, but I am looking at Zetterlund too. Dude may not be a S level threat on ice but he's gonna become THE backbone of the team when they rise out of the rebuild.

 

[Jerry the great]

At 5v5:

Juulsen:
8 GF
15 GA

Brannstrom:
14 GF
16 GA

This isn't an argument against Brannstrom. One extra goal against but 6 extra goals for, give me that every day of the week. Also Brannstrom has about 50% ozone starts, Juulsen gets way less than that but that's as much because it's a crime against humanity to watch Juulsen in the ozone as it is because he's relied on to defend.

Sure neither should be regulars in the lineup but 5 of our current defensemen don't belong outside the bottom pairing, we aren't in a perfect situation. We are desperate for someone who can consistently move the puck and Brannstrom is the only one who actually can other than Hughes. As soon as we acquire a legit 2LD it will shove Soucy down a pair and we can punt Brannstrom back out of the lineup but until then we need the puck moving.

Brannstrom's ozone starts are 70%+ and Juulsen's are ~27%

despite that, Juulsen's HDCF% and HDGF% is less horrible and their SC% is pretty comparable.

if you drill into the numbers further and look at 5v5 numbers when the games are tied, where Brannstrom's zone starts dip into the mid 60% range, his numbers are team worst, by a lot:

There is a reason he's watching the games....when they can't hide him, he's a liability.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

And I cannot stress this enough: watching them vs watching Chicago, it feels like night and day. To me SJS is so much further ahead of their rebuild.

For SJS Celebrini is obviously the center of attention, but I am looking at Zetterlund too. Dude may not be a S level threat on ice but he's gonna become THE backbone of the team when they rise out of the rebuild.

San Jose did great in the Meier return. Zetterlund is almost as good as Meier but much cheaper, they used the 2nd to move up to get Dickinson who is having an incredible D+1, and they have Musty and Mukhamadullin (have to Google how to spell his name every time) as prospects.

 

[DFAC]

San Jose did great in the Meier return. Zetterlund is almost as good as Meier but much cheaper, they used the 2nd to move up to get Dickinson who is having an incredible D+1, and they have Musty and Mukhamadullin (have to Google how to spell his name every time) as prospects.

They're just lacking that #1 dman IMO - if they can draft Schaefer this year they'll be in a great spot moving forward.

 

[supercanuck]

Chicago really messed up with that Seth Jones trade. Set them back several years.

 

[LemonSauceD]

a lot of talk on the Buffalo boards about Petey. Lot of them throwing out the idea of trading Power + for him.

 

[Delocatedfan]

I would rather not move Miller or Pete but if its one or the other who would we rather they keep?

I think Pete is the pick due to age. Id rather not lose Miller but if the working relationship can't be worked around then moving on is best

Not sure who a good target is & if Miller would waive his nmc. I know Cozens name has been in the news regarding a hypothetical trade but not sure that makes sense for either club

 

[mriswith]

Brannstrom's ozone starts are 70%+ and Juulsen's are ~27%

despite that, Juulsen's HDCF% and HDGF% is less horrible and their SC% is pretty comparable.

if you drill into the numbers further and look at 5v5 numbers when the games are tied, where Brannstrom's zone starts dip into the mid 60% range, his numbers are team worst, by a lot:

View attachment 951086

There is a reason he's watching the games....when they can't hide him, he's a liability.

I do see what you're saying and I don't think either should be regulars. Ideally we trade for a legit 2LD and Willander comes over later in the year to punt the 3RD out and then neither of them are in the lineup anymore.

I don't love advanced stats when the sample size starts creeping down to 100 minutes or so. Tie games means you're looking at samples of just a handful of goals for HDGF%, for example. And advanced stats in small samples don't adequately capture what is happening when Juulsen decides to be a complete bonehead and be entirely responsible for a goal against.

You chose tied games, but if you had picked games where we are trailing at 5v5, Brannstrom has a better GF%, better HDCF % and a 57% xGF% - basically tied with Hronek - vs 47.5 xGF% for Juulsen. Or games where we are leading Brannstrom clobbers Juulsen in GF% and xGF %, Brannstrom's within 1 advanced stats are ugly, but he's still got 12 GF 9 GA vs Juulsen's 7 GF 10 GA which might go back to my earlier point about advanced stats not adequately capturing a single incident of massive boneheadedness. I don't mind Brannstrom hogging the ozone starts because no one else is capable of doing anything but sabotaging the team in the ozone.

Just to clarify, my original point wasn't to compare Brannstrom and Juulsen head to head because they aren't competing for the same job, it was to compare the gap in accountability despite Juulsen bringing more of the same and Brannstrom bringing something no other non-Hughes dman brings right now. Juulsen is allowed to be 100% responsible for goals against and keep playing and Brannstrom's not, despite Brannstrom bringing an aspect that every non-Hughes dman right now doesn't have. Visually it looks and feels horrific watching them unable to move the puck and hamstringing the forwards every game.

 

[racerjoe]

It’s sad we are debating brannstrom, it’s more a statement on how bad things are, but the plays just die on other guys sticks. They might be better defenders, but the other guy helps you defend less. Would be great to get a few guys in to replace what we clearly won in the offseason, fringe nhl men, we sure cornered the market there.

 

[DFAC]

It’s sad we are debating brannstrom, it’s more a statement on how bad things are, but the plays just die on other guys sticks. They might be better defenders, but the other guy helps you defend less. Would be great to get a few guys in to replace what we clearly won in the offseason, fringe nhl men, we sure cornered the market there.

We went from the sea of Granlunds to the sea of Brannstroms