Groupings for next year question

[jcbio11]

Why is that weird? IIRC, we have only played a couple of games during the last 5 years or so at the U20 level, and it was a draw with 5 minutes left in the 3rd period the previous time (2013 WJC), and a 1 goal game late in the 3rd period in the other one. I saw both of the games, both were close contests and since the last time we played 3 years ago, our team has only improved in terms of depth.

Yes, you were a tier above us 15 or 10 years ago when you had like 10 draftees in the NHL every year, but things have changed. Latvia was ranked higher than Slovakia in the IIHF rankings last year. We have 8 NHL draftees in the past 5 years (only 1 legit NHL guy out of those 8 + 1 AHL/NHL player), you have 14 (also just 1 legit NHL player + Marko Dano who has the potential of becoming a career NHL guy). That's not a huge difference by my book.

We beat you the last time in the World Champs and all of the exhibition games between us at the national team level have been very close over the last few years as well.

Even more importantly, I don't see any top end talent among your 97, 98 or 99 born players.

So, no offence, but there's a bunch of pretty good reasons why we consider you a beatable team. And I'm not saying that we're going to be the favorites, I'm saying that Latvian fans view Slovakia as a roughly comparable team that can be beaten.

I don't know why you're bringing the men's category into this. Plus I think Slovakia is ahead of you in that regard as well. Switzerland caught up, Latvia didn't.

Anyway at the WJC level Slovakia's never been relegated, they always play in the elite division. Latvia is up and down, more down than up. It is fully reasonable to expect Slovakia not to get relegated and Latvia to be a prime candidate for relegation again.

 

[Namejs]

I don't know why you're bringing the men's category into this. Plus I think Slovakia is ahead of you in that regard as well. Switzerland caught up, Latvia didn't.

Anyway at the WJC level Slovakia's never been relegated, they always play in the elite division. Latvia is up and down, more down than up. It is fully reasonable to expect Slovakia not to get relegated and Latvia to be a prime candidate for relegation again.

I don't think anyone caught up, it's that you have regressed to the level of Germany/Latvia/etc.

And us not making the Elite tier of WJC has been considered an upset the last few years (meaning the head coach got sacked if he didn't win the DivIA tournament). You should pay more attention to the quality of our both teams not the places that they've taken historically.

Latvia is definitely not going to be the prime candidate for relegation.

 

[Jakk123]

I don't think anyone caught up, it's that you have regressed to the level of Germany/Latvia/etc.

And us not making the Elite tier of WJC has been considered an upset the last few years (meaning the head coach got sacked if he didn't win the DivIA tournament). You should pay more attention to the quality of our both teams not the places that they've taken historically.

Latvia is definitely not going to be the prime candidate for relegation.

And who is the main candidate, then? Don't get me wrong, I agree with basically everything, although our 99 year is pretty good by our standards. But that won't have any impact next year. I just still view you as the main candidate for relegation, not saying you can't beat us.

 

[Wooren]

Even more importantly, I don't see any top end talent among your 97, 98 or 99 born players.

97 or 98 probably aren't that good, though 99 is looking very solid for Slovakia. Top end talent could be considered Milos Roman, 99 born. He is almost PPG in Czech U20.

I don't think anyone caught up, it's that you have regressed to the level of Germany/Latvia/etc.
Latvia is definitely not going to be the prime candidate for relegation.

Switzerland actually did, they have Fiala or Meier, they are getting a decent number of draftees. Hischier seems to be very good. Switzerland improved their junior program.

Latvia shouldn't be like Belarus this year, where everyone expected loses and relegation. Latvia could actually do some damage. That being said they will still be the prime candidate for relegation. (It could be Denmark though, depending on their roster)

 

[Jakk123]

97 or 98 probably aren't that good, though 99 is looking very solid for Slovakia. Top end talent could be considered Milos Roman, 99 born. He is almost PPG in Czech U20.



Switzerland actually did, they have Fiala or Meier, they are getting a decent number of draftees. Hischier seems to be very good. Switzerland improved their junior program.

Latvia shouldn't be like Belarus this year, where everyone expected loses and relegation. Latvia could actually do some damage. That being said they will still be the prime candidate for relegation. (It could be Denmark though, depending on their roster)

That is basically all I wanted to say, you beat me by a minute

 

[garbageteam]

Didn't someone say Slovakia's always built and coached to avoid relegation instead of aiming for a medal? Don't see that changing. They desperately want to stay as part of the big boys, instead of actually beating the big boys. Sort of the thread that Switzerland wants to hang onto after they've recently tasted some success.

Latvia's clearly the most obvious candidate (along with possibly Germany, Denmark) to try to enter the fray in upcoming years, but hard to see how they'll avoid the relegation round...they're always competitive enough in games but they just never get the results needed. With enough time things are meant to change I suppose but they should be hoping for Switzerland to finally come ahead of Denmark for an "easier" relegation battle...

 

[Namejs]

And who is the main candidate, then? Don't get me wrong, I agree with basically everything, although our 99 year is pretty good by our standards. But that won't have any impact next year. I just still view you as the main candidate for relegation, not saying you can't beat us.

Are you aware that only 1 team out of 10 gets relegated? Denmark has little depth and they have a gaping hole in defence. Apart from having a couple of young forward prospects (probably too young to be impact players next year), I don't see what exactly would make them the favorites in a potential match-up against us.

 

[Namejs]

97 or 98 probably aren't that good, though 99 is looking very solid for Slovakia. Top end talent could be considered Milos Roman, 99 born. He is almost PPG in Czech U20.



Switzerland actually did, they have Fiala or Meier, they are getting a decent number of draftees. Hischier seems to be very good. Switzerland improved their junior program.

Latvia shouldn't be like Belarus this year, where everyone expected loses and relegation. Latvia could actually do some damage. That being said they will still be the prime candidate for relegation. (It could be Denmark though, depending on their roster)

Switzerland has always had a decent hockey team. I don't see any major improvement in the Swiss programme in the last few years. I do see a downwards trending Slovakian hockey programme.

And, no, I can't see a single reason why we should be considered *the prime candidate* for relegation.

 

[Namejs]

Didn't someone say Slovakia's always built and coached to avoid relegation instead of aiming for a medal? Don't see that changing. They desperately want to stay as part of the big boys, instead of actually beating the big boys. Sort of the thread that Switzerland wants to hang onto after they've recently tasted some success.

Latvia's clearly the most obvious candidate (along with possibly Germany, Denmark) to try to enter the fray in upcoming years, but hard to see how they'll avoid the relegation round...they're always competitive enough in games but they just never get the results needed. With enough time things are meant to change I suppose but they should be hoping for Switzerland to finally come ahead of Denmark for an "easier" relegation battle...

North Americans (sorry for the generalization, but I really think it's true) tend to misinterpret any changes in the ranking or even a single upset made by some 2nd tier team as a clear indication that their entire hockey programme has made leaps and bounds and has improved significantly. That's not how it works.

If you had followed the DivIA tournament, you'd know that there's a bunch of relatively evenly matched teams down in the 2nd tier of WJC. Whether it's Denmark, Latvia, Germany, Belarus or Norway, any of these teams can make the play-offs at the WJC and do some damage if they happen to have a good crop of players in that given year.

If you're a small hockey programme, some years you don't have a lot of good prospects, some years you do. Some years you have absolutely horrendous goaltending and no prospects worth mentioning in defense, but a bunch of talented forward prospects. Some years you have a balanced line-up. There are a lot of fluctuations and changes from year to year.

The reason why I'm confident in our team is that, barring any injuries, we'll have a solid, very balanced roster with a bunch of NHL prospects in every position and enough depth that you won't see pee-wee level mistakes and guys falling down on the ice for no reason. And that's something that I haven't seen in a very long time.

Slovakia, on the other hand, is going to have one of the most talentless lineups that they have iced. So it's not hard for me to imagine them losing against Latvia at all.

 

[kabidjan18]

North Americans (sorry for the generalization, but I really think it's true) tend to misinterpret any changes in the ranking or even a single upset made by some 2nd tier team as a clear indication that their entire hockey programme has made leaps and bounds and has improved significantly. That's not how it works.

If you're a small hockey programme, some years you don't have a lot of good prospects, some years you do. Some years you have absolutely horrendous goaltending and no prospects worth mentioning in defense, but a bunch of talented forward prospects. Some years you have a balanced line-up. There are a lot of fluctuations and changes from year to year.

The reason why I'm confident in our team is that, barring any injuries, we'll have a solid, very balanced roster with a bunch of NHL prospects in every position and enough depth that you won't see pee-wee level mistakes and guys falling down on the ice for no reason. And that's something that I haven't seen in a very long time.

Slovakia, on the other hand, is going to have one of the most talentless lineups that they have iced. So it's not hard for me to imagine them losing against Latvia at all.

YES, finally someone says it. I grew so sick of people saying Belarussian hockey is on the rise see they made it to the WJC and fought valiantly losing every game by significant margins. Some hockey programs are on the rise, others are not. Latvia actually is having a drought for 1998 but I don't think there's any "prime candidate" for relegation next year, every team has a reason they could stay afloat. I know some like to try tear Denmark apart and I agree Slovakia is falling but they still have solid teams, they won't be falling on their skates for no reason or making pee-wee level mistakes that's what happens when I play hockey.

 

[jcbio11]

North Americans (sorry for the generalization, but I really think it's true) tend to misinterpret any changes in the ranking or even a single upset made by some 2nd tier team as a clear indication that their entire hockey programme has made leaps and bounds and has improved significantly. That's not how it works.

If you had followed the DivIA tournament, you'd know that there's a bunch of relatively evenly matched teams down in the 2nd tier of WJC. Whether it's Denmark, Latvia, Germany, Belarus or Norway, any of these teams can make the play-offs at the WJC and do some damage if they happen to have a good crop of players in that given year.

If you're a small hockey programme, some years you don't have a lot of good prospects, some years you do. Some years you have absolutely horrendous goaltending and no prospects worth mentioning in defense, but a bunch of talented forward prospects. Some years you have a balanced line-up. There are a lot of fluctuations and changes from year to year.

The reason why I'm confident in our team is that, barring any injuries, we'll have a solid, very balanced roster with a bunch of NHL prospects in every position and enough depth that you won't see pee-wee level mistakes and guys falling down on the ice for no reason. And that's something that I haven't seen in a very long time.

Slovakia, on the other hand, is going to have one of the most talentless lineups that they have iced. So it's not hard for me to imagine them losing against Latvia at all.

What? No, they can't do some damage in the playoffs at the elite u20. When has one of these teams EVER won a game in the playoffs? These are elevator teams, up and down.

See this is what seperates these teams from a team like Slovakia. Slovakia can from time to time do some damage and has never been relegated, they're established at the WJC.

 

[Namejs]

What? No, they can't do some damage in the playoffs at the elite u20. When has one of these teams EVER won a game in the playoffs? These are elevator teams, up and down.

See this is what seperates these teams from a team like Slovakia. Slovakia can from time to time do some damage and has never been relegated, they're established at the WJC.

Did you watch the WJC this year? Did you miss the Denmark-Russia game? All it takes is one flukey win, and you're playing for the bronze medals at the very least. You have done it, Switzerland has done it, and all of these teams are capable of pulling off an upset like that on a good year.

And that's exactly the point that I'm trying to make - the difference between 2nd tier teams and Slovakia (which is basically a bubble team in-between 1st and 2nd tier along with Switzerland) is smaller than you'd like to think.

But we're starting to go in circles now. Let's just wait and see what happens a year from now.

 

[baronsforever]

Not disagreeing, but that sure is ridiculous.

A) They shouldn't switch groups for matchups.

B) The whole idea of an outdoor game is brutal. This is not supposed to be an exhibition. If it was, why hand out medals at the end. Each game is so much more meaningful than a regular season NHL game based on the total number of games.

Awful all-around from IIHF, USA Hockey, Hockey Canada (i'm sure, they have their hand in everything), TSN. Brutal.

In 2010 Germany played USA outdoors, in 2013 the seeding was changed by the organizers. Those are examples from the men's tournament, it has never happened in the juniors before but:

" The organiser is entitled to allocate a maximum of two teams to separate groups" ("IIHF Sport Regulations" sec. "Team seeding regulation"). Additionally the rules state that the schedule is up to the organizer, and must be submitted to the IIHF for approval. There is no reason that a Canada/USA game for new year's eve can't happen.

And really, eight out of ten teams advance, so for two favorites for medals is one game really particularly meaningful?

 

[kabidjan18]

What? No, they can't do some damage in the playoffs at the elite u20. When has one of these teams EVER won a game in the playoffs? These are elevator teams, up and down.

See this is what seperates these teams from a team like Slovakia. Slovakia can from time to time do some damage and has never been relegated, they're established at the WJC.

I'm going to preface what I say by saying that I'm not predicting Slovakia to be the team relegated, or Denmark, or Latvia, it's way to early and a lot of things could happen between now and then. I'm just going to point out the way you're thinking and why I believe it's wrong.

When you called Latvia an elevator team, and lumped it with all the other elevator teams you basically said that all elevator teams are created equal, and you just expect to use whichever elevator team is new this year as a buffer to save your own squad from relegation. You sound completely ignorant of who's on the Latvian squad, who's on the other squads of the elevator teams, you just assume when they come up they're be easy game like Belarus' pitiful excuse for a WJC team because they're an "elevator team."

Slovakia has enjoyed some success in the WJC, and hasn't been relegated, but there's an old saying in entrepreneurship that you've gotta work with the idea that someone working 24/7 in a garage somewhere wants to eat your lunch, and steal everything you have. This year in D1A Latvia destroyed an Austrian team 6-2 that featured as many past and present CHLers as this year's Slovakian team. They have quite a few NHL prospects on that team, perhaps more after the upcoming draft, and they're returning a lot of the heart of their team. Denmark for it's part beat a "tier 2" team in Switzerland. I'm not sure you've even looked at your own team. Slovakia is losing all their top 5 scorers, and only 2 players who will play next year scored at all this year (1 assist each). This isn't to say I don't believe in the Slovak system, and that I believe they'll be relegated like evidently exactly 1/2 of Latvia (pop. 2.03 mil) believe but basically what I'm hearing is Slovakia will beat Latvia or Denmark because we're Slovakia and we've traditionally had some success, let's ignore who's playing on the other side because they're an "elevator team" and those elevator programs never get better and we never have drought years. Everything above has basically been "we've always done well" vs. "we have these prospects you have these prospects" and since the Slovak lineups of the glorious past can't return and play in next year's WJC, I think it'd make for more productive discussion to focus on who you do have, and prospects that you think will give Latvia trouble, as opposed to ignoring who's on your team, never knowing who's on their team and just pointing to the past "we're Canada we'll always make it to the semi-final round."

 

[kabidjan18]

About the actual groupings next year, group B looks a little rougher than group A.

 

[jcbio11]

I'm going to preface what I say by saying that I'm not predicting Slovakia to be the team relegated, or Denmark, or Latvia, it's way to early and a lot of things could happen between now and then. I'm just going to point out the way you're thinking and why I believe it's wrong.

When you called Latvia an elevator team, and lumped it with all the other elevator teams you basically said that all elevator teams are created equal, and you just expect to use whichever elevator team is new this year as a buffer to save your own squad from relegation. You sound completely ignorant of who's on the Latvian squad, who's on the other squads of the elevator teams, you just assume when they come up they're be easy game like Belarus' pitiful excuse for a WJC team because they're an "elevator team."

Slovakia has enjoyed some success in the WJC, and hasn't been relegated, but there's an old saying in entrepreneurship that you've gotta work with the idea that someone working 24/7 in a garage somewhere wants to eat your lunch, and steal everything you have. This year in D1A Latvia destroyed an Austrian team 6-2 that featured as many past and present CHLers as this year's Slovakian team. They have quite a few NHL prospects on that team, perhaps more after the upcoming draft, and they're returning a lot of the heart of their team. Denmark for it's part beat a "tier 2" team in Switzerland. I'm not sure you've even looked at your own team. Slovakia is losing all their top 5 scorers, and only 2 players who will play next year scored at all this year (1 assist each). This isn't to say I don't believe in the Slovak system, and that I believe they'll be relegated like evidently exactly 1/2 of Latvia (pop. 2.03 mil) believe but basically what I'm hearing is Slovakia will beat Latvia or Denmark because we're Slovakia and we've traditionally had some success, let's ignore who's playing on the other side because they're an "elevator team" and those elevator programs never get better and we never have drought years. Everything above has basically been "we've always done well" vs. "we have these prospects you have these prospects" and since the Slovak lineups of the glorious past can't return and play in next year's WJC, I think it'd make for more productive discussion to focus on who you do have, and prospects that you think will give Latvia trouble, as opposed to ignoring who's on your team, never knowing who's on their team and just pointing to the past "we're Canada we'll always make it to the semi-final round."

I just absolutely disagree with a team like Latvia being lumped together with team Slovakia, when historically, their results at this level have been vastly different. I mean sure, next year Latvia could have a great team, Slovakia a down year and they might lose. But I still think it's unfair to say that Latvia is on the same level in ice hockey, either at the WJC or at the mens level.

 

[jcbio11]

Did you watch the WJC this year? Did you miss the Denmark-Russia game? All it takes is one flukey win, and you're playing for the bronze medals at the very least. You have done it, Switzerland has done it, and all of these teams are capable of pulling off an upset like that on a good year.

And that's exactly the point that I'm trying to make - the difference between 2nd tier teams and Slovakia (which is basically a bubble team in-between 1st and 2nd tier along with Switzerland) is smaller than you'd like to think.

But we're starting to go in circles now. Let's just wait and see what happens a year from now.

If it's so easy to make the final 4, if all it takes is a fluke, why do you never see Latvia, Germany or Belarus up there? You said these teams could do some damage, yet they never do. Even a hockey program like that of Czech republic has struggled at this tourney, not making the final 4 in the last 10 years even once.

All things considered, this is an extremely tough tourney to compete in against teams like Canada, USA, Sweden, Russia when you realistically really only use 19 and 18 year olds.

Anyway good luck to team Latvia next year, I would love to see them make it out of the group stage and through the QFs. Would be hellava run.

 

[ThrashersfanSVK]

You should pay more attention to the quality of our both teams not the places that they've taken historically.

No offense, but then you should consider what you're writing too... I mean especially this part of your post:

Even more importantly, I don't see any top end talent among your 97, 98 or 99 born players.

I could tell you that you should pay more attention to the promising Slovak prospects in those birthyears, because I'm sure that in all three next years we're going to have stronger team than we did this year.

Anyway, I do think, too, that Slovakia will face really tough opponent. Next-year Latvian team should be one of the strongest 5th seed in group of WJC I've ever remembered. I saw Latvians at last-year U18 Worlds and they looked really decent. However still I think Slovaks have edge in terms of skill and it's quite clear that Latvia will be an underdog in all round robin games next year. That means nothing, though. You're overreacting little bit.

 

[v-man]

Comparing past results is pointless since the tournament format has been altered in recent years. It's much harder to get back into the top pool now than it was three years ago, and it's harder to fall out. Latvia was in the top pool for 4 or 5 years before their last demotion and the subsequent format change (hardly an elevator team). A team basically has to go undefeated now in all 5 games in Division 1 to get back in. Many of those losing Division 1 teams, whose fates are at times decided by as little as one fluke OT goal, are just as good or better than the lower ranked elite division teams. This entire tournament is made up essentially of players from two birth years. It proves nothing at all about a nation's over-all hockey prowess, development or regression. That being said, it's blatantly obvious that while the Swiss and Danes have progressed in recent years, Latvia has become more or less stagnant and Slovakia has regressed in terms of quality players produced.

 

[kabidjan18]

Comparing past results is pointless since the tournament format has been altered in recent years. It's much harder to get back into the top pool now than it was three years ago, and it's harder to fall out. Latvia was in the top pool for 4 or 5 years before their last demotion and the subsequent format change (hardly an elevator team). A team basically has to go undefeated now in all 5 games in Division 1 to get back in. Many of those losing Division 1 teams, whose fates are at times decided by as little as one fluke OT goal, are just as good or better than the lower ranked elite division teams. This entire tournament is made up essentially of players from two birth years. It proves nothing at all about a nation's over-all hockey prowess, development or regression. That being said, it's blatantly obvious that while the Swiss and Danes have progressed in recent years, Latvia has become more or less stagnant and Slovakia has regressed in terms of quality players produced.

Thanks for stealing the words out of my mouth. When comparing history you really have to be very careful to only include relevant history, which generally means only history within the past 3-4 years, 5 at most and this isn't just true for WJC but hockey program strength in general. From 1963-2002 Denmark never finished better than 16th in the world championships that doesn't mean they're bound to lose to Belarus next September, some actually think them to be the favorite. I can't really say the Swiss are rising I think they've peaked, but Denmark is definitely rising, Latvia I still think is still improving but slowly, and I'm pretty sure everyone outside of Slovakia is in consensus that Slovakia is regressing.

 

[jcbio11]

Thanks for stealing the words out of my mouth. When comparing history you really have to be very careful to only include relevant history, which generally means only history within the past 3-4 years, 5 at most and this isn't just true for WJC but hockey program strength in general. From 1963-2002 Denmark never finished better than 16th in the world championships that doesn't mean they're bound to lose to Belarus next September, some actually think them to be the favorite. I can't really say the Swiss are rising I think they've peaked, but Denmark is definitely rising, Latvia I still think is still improving but slowly, and I'm pretty sure everyone outside of Slovakia is in consensus that Slovakia is regressing.

Everyone here is very critical of the hockey program actually. I also think we're regressing. But there is still a degree of separation between the hockey program of Slovakia and Latvia. Just look at the number of NHL players. It's 9 right now for Slovakia, will be 10 whenever Panik suits up for Chicago (might be next game). Latvia has one or two, not sure now. But I am pretty sure they used to have more, so I'll believe this "Latvia is the same tier as Slovakia" when they actually produce NHLers (prospects are what they are, prospects, might not amount to anything) or produce results at the international tournaments. Switzerland has done both, Latvia neither.

 

[kabidjan18]

Everyone here is very critical of the hockey program actually. I also think we're regressing. But there is still a degree of separation between the hockey program of Slovakia and Latvia. Just look at the number of NHL players. It's 9 right now for Slovakia, will be 10 whenever Panik suits up for Chicago (might be next game). Latvia has one or two, not sure now. But I am pretty sure they used to have more, so I'll believe this "Latvia is the same tier as Slovakia" when they actually produce NHLers (prospects are what they are, prospects, might not amount to anything) or produce results at the international tournaments. Switzerland has done both, Latvia neither.

Hmmm...I think we're in agreement in some areas like Slovakia as a country is still ahead of Latvia. You might get an earful from Namejs on using a NHL player count but I'm cool with that. I think we're using two different Slovak words though. The word in Slovak for equal evidently is Rovny, I think that Slovakia is better than Latvia at hockey, they are Nerovna. However I do think they're in the same tier, or Rad in Slovak. Slovakia has lost to teams like Austria, Slovenia (in the Olympics), Norway, and Latvia all in the past 3 years. They were the Group A whipping boy in Sochi and yes they were missing Gaborik but still, the NHL sent a pretty clear sign with the World Cup of hockey decision so I still think Slovakia is ahead of Latvia, that's obvious but unless each team is it's own tier I don't think they're a tier lower.

 

[jcbio11]

Hmmm...I think we're in agreement in some areas like Slovakia as a country is still ahead of Latvia. You might get an earful from Namejs on using a NHL player count but I'm cool with that. I think we're using two different Slovak words though. The word in Slovak for equal evidently is Rovny, I think that Slovakia is better than Latvia at hockey, they are Nerovna. However I do think they're in the same tier, or Rad in Slovak. Slovakia has lost to teams like Austria, Slovenia (in the Olympics), Norway, and Latvia all in the past 3 years. They were the Group A whipping boy in Sochi and yes they were missing Gaborik but still, the NHL sent a pretty clear sign with the World Cup of hockey decision so I still think Slovakia is ahead of Latvia, that's obvious but unless each team is it's own tier I don't think they're a tier lower.

What are you doing that for? You're also misusing those words

 

[kabidjan18]

What are you doing that for? You're also misusing those words

: B-B-B-But I thought I had a PHD in Slovak.
(Stressing the difference between equality and being on the same tier btw)