Gretzky's Difficulties In Scoring Goals Against Good Defenses, After The Mid-1980s.

[MadLuke]

Skinner since 2013-2014:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Show a strong correlation with the more minutes he plays the more goals per minutes he score.

Probably not causal (ie coach give him more ice time because he score and vice-versa)

I would imagine Panthers points is more something that would apply to superstars, once you play 19 minutes in total a game as forward, adding more having a diminishing return, I do not imagine it would kick if you are a 16-17 minutes guy and if it does to a very small portion of their minutes.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I don't doubt that Gretzky played a lot of ice-time in this period, and possibly more than other forwards (though I'm not convinced that he played more than Lemieux, or Yzerman in 1988-89).

However, the supposition that he played more ice-time (than, say, Denis Savard or whoever) and that ALL of that extra ice-time is equally fair-game to judge his ability to score goals at even-strength is a silly conclusion. Players who play huge amounts of ice-time aren't going all-out 100% every shift on the ice, trying to score with the same intensity all the time. That might be a fair (if still speculatory) conclusion if Gretzky had been playing 19 minutes a game, all at ES and PP. But he was playing 25 minutes or whatever. Imagine a Kings' game in 1990 -- L.A. takes two penalties in a row, and Gretzky helps kills off, say, two minutes of that PK situation. When Robitaille and Gretzky go out for their next regular shifts respectively, Robitaille is fresh as a spring-chicken, having sat on the bench for the past five shifts. But Gretzky (and a few others) are tired, having just killed penalties. If LA is up 5-1, Gretzky isn't going out with the same energy to score as Denis Savard in Montreal is, where he's playing fewer minutes on a 4-line rotation and not killing penalties.

Gretzky and Lemieux (and others) did play a ton of time during the 80s and I think the change to the short shift strategy in the mid-80s has a lot to do with Gretzky scoring less goals - along with him focusing more on playmaking which is well known. They definitely had to pace themselves a lot differently than after the change.

One of Gretzky's prodigious abilities was his endurance, and I'm just guessing that he was able to take advantage of that more when longer shifts were the norm and his anticipation let him get the jump on other players who were a bit tired after a while on the ice.

I think the ice time argument cuts both ways because then you get into considerations of what effectiveness means.. sure, some players may score at a higher rate p60 or whatever, but is that because they are in a situation where they have the luxury of starting more often in the offensive zone, or are the preferred option in certain score situations? Is a guy playing a ton of minutes and scoring a bit less on a per minute basis because they are being relied on for a lot more situations out of necessity? Like you say, does he PK and have to take it a bit easier the next ES shift? All this stuff is super complicated.