Gretzky's Difficulties In Scoring Goals Against Good Defenses, After The Mid-1980s.

[Video Nasty]

It’s never been that mysterious to me.

1. Traditionally, goal scorers are unlikely to pot 60+ goals past the age of 26.

2. He played nearly every game of the regular season and playoffs through the age of 26. 632 regular season games out of 640 and 101 playoffs games. That’s 741 games of NHL hockey through just 8 seasons.

3. Add in the knee injury during his final year in Edmonton and making a 5th Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 6 years, and we have an extreme amount of hockey played in a very short period of time. He played almost 100 games of hockey year in and year, from the ages of 22-27. That’s going to have an impact.

4. He still proved he was capable of being a 40-50 goal scorer through age 30 (while still handing out 100 assists).

5. The back injuries are well documented, but because he dismantled the league for a dozen years, too many are willing to gloss over them and act like he was supposed to be immune to them and the effects of aging. The same people wax poetic about all the time Mario missed. Adjust a few things for Gretzky in a similar fashion and the gap only swells.

Yet another reason why Gretzky is the greatest is because he was apparently expected to score 60+ goals, 100+ assists, and 160+ points for 20 years in a row, while playing nearly all the games and being healthy the entire way.

 

[overpass]

When comparing Gretzky's stats against other forwards, don't forget to consider that he played more minutes than any other forward in the league.

I ran ice time estimates, based on on-ice goals as a percentage of team goals, for eight top scoring centres for the 1985-86 to 1990-91 time period. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Messier, Hawerchuk, Savard, Nicholls, and Lafontaine.

On the power play, Mario played more ice time than any of them, and Gretzky was second. Looking at power play goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, Gretzky was the least effective goal scorer on the power play.

Power play goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, 1985-86 to 1990-91
Pat Lafontaine: 2.2
Mario Lemieux: 2.1
Dale Hawerchuk: 2.0
Bernie Nicholls: 1.8
Denis Savard: 1.7
Steve Yzerman: 1.5
Mark Messier: 1.5
Wayne Gretzky: 1.3

At even strength, Gretzky played more ice time than anyone else, with Lemieux and Yzerman not far behind.

Per estimated 60 minutes, Gretzky was in the middle of the pack as an EV goal scorer, similar to Yzerman, Savard, Nicholls, and Messier, and well behind Lemieux and Lafontaine.

Even strength goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, 1985-86 to 1990-91

Mario Lemieux: 1.7
Pat Lafontaine: 1.5
Steve Yzerman: 1.4
Denis Savard: 1.4
Wayne Gretzky: 1.3
Bernie Nicholls: 1.2
Mark Messier: 1.2
Dale Hawerchuk: 1.1

Overall, Lemieux and Lafontaine were clearly the best goal scoring centres of this era, finishing 1-2 at both EV and PP. I would have to say Yzerman and Savard were both ahead of Gretzky as well, as both led Gretzky in goal scoring efficiency at EV and PP. Nicholls, Messier, and Hawerchuk are debatable, depending on how you want to value EV and PP.

And then consider that Gretzky failed to maintain his goal scoring rate against good teams in a way that none of the others did.

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were 0.500 or above:

Mario Lemieux: 212 GP, 161 G, 0.76 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 211 GP, 140 G, 0.66 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 251 GP, 141 G, 0.56 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 246 GP, 132 G, 0.54 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 228 GP, 121 G, 0.53 G/GP
Denis Savard: 202 GP, 101 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 257 GP, 121 G, 0.47 G/GP
Mark Messier: 205 GP, 92 G, 0.45 G/GP

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were under 0.500:

Mario Lemieux: 168 GP, 160 G, 0.95 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 224 GP, 168 G, 0.75 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 193 GP, 116 G, 0.60 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 223 GP, 133 G, 0.60 G/GP
Denis Savard: 216 GP, 108 G, 0.50 G/GP
Mark Messier: 216 GP, 107 G, 0.50 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 208 GP, 103 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 217 GP, 104 G, 0.48 G/GP

The takeaway from the above splits? Gretzky scored 41% more goals per game against below average teams than he did against average or above average teams. Lemieux scored 25% more. The other six were within +/- 10%. So Gretzky did indeed score less against good defenses in the mid-late 80s,, and by a much larger margin than other top centres.

Overall, from 1985-86 to 1990-91:

Mario Lemieux and Pat Lafontaine were clearly more efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

Steve Yzerman and Denis Savard were slightly more efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

Mark Messier, Bernie Nicholls, and Dale Hawerchuk were slightly less efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

If all eight played equal minutes in a season and played against good defenses only, I think Gretzky would have the best odds to finish with the fewest goals.

Although Gretzky was unable to sustain his goal scoring against better competition during the mid-late 80s, he remained the best playmaker, and was able to play the most minutes. He was likely the best offensive player overall for the time period as a whole, certainly for the first few years before Mario Lemieux hit his prime.

 

[MadLuke]

And then consider that Gretzky failed to maintain his goal scoring rate against good teams in a way that none of the others did.

I wonder if the first vs second half goalscoring decline could be in those line, in the playoff race even bad teams (back in those days almost all team were in the playoff race till the end) giving good effort on defense.

 

[Crosby2010]

Five years younger he would have had fewer time than Bossy to pile them up.

So he's born in 1986 then and enters the NHL in 1984. Would have been a heck of a race to see who the #1 overall draft pick is that year, but alas. It isn't as if goal scoring wasn't still very high. But has anyone thought that Gretzky and the Oilers in the early 1980s drove the league the direction it went? This is a guy who dismantled the record book in his 2nd season in the NHL and then obliterated it in his 3rd season. There is no doubt teams copied this offensive style of game. The Islanders may have still been winning, but 92 goals and 212 points in a season definitely had an impact. Esposito put up gaudy totals in the 1970s and not even a decade later his records are gone. And by a long shot too. That had an impact, let's not kid ourselves. So basically what I am saying is that Gretzky definitely helped change the game the way it was being played. And since you mentioned Bossy, as great as a goal scorer as we all know he was, no one ever answers why he was left in the dust from a goal scoring standpoint against Gretzky. This is Mike Bossy we are talking about.

 

[MadLuke]

But has anyone thought that Gretzky and the Oilers in the early 1980s drove the league the direction it went?

Depend what we mean the highest scoring season post ww2 was 1982.

81 and 82 saw big jump (oilers or the expension in general or something else ? power play jump a lot in 1981), maintain after that, go down starting 1987 a little bit

 

[Crosby2010]

Depend what we mean the highest scoring season post ww2 was 1982.

81 and 82 saw big jump (oilers or the expension in general or something else ? power play jump a lot in 1981), maintain after that, go down starting 1987 a little bit

So shouldn't we contribute some of that to the Oilers? They certainly influenced things. And the one we give the most credit to is Gretzky. And even so, look at those 1980 and 1981 teams. There isn't a lot on there. The other Oilers didn't get their big numbers until starting in 1982 and Gretzky had double the points of his next teammate. And yet he still scored 51 and 55 goals as a teenager. I'll ask what I've asked before, a couple of questions, if Gretzky was just a product of the league at the time why didn't other great goal scorers do things similar? And how long was it sufficient to put up high goal totals and why wasn't the 8 straight years of at least 50 goals good enough?

 

[MadLuke]

So shouldn't we contribute some of that to the Oilers? They certainly influenced things.

Scoring maintainged/went down after 1982 not up and the Oilers had yet to win, league scoring was almost already at his maximum in 1981 when the oilers were a regular top 10 offense 29 wins team.