Gretzky's Difficulties In Scoring Goals Against Good Defenses, After The Mid-1980s.

[Staniowski]

No, I'm not wrong.

You're confusing two different things: 1) the Gretzky injury in 1991, and 2) Gretzky's relative difficulty with an improved NHL/better defense that started in the mid-1980s and continued for the remainder of his career.

These two factors combined to affect his career after 1991.

Remember, this thread is about 1990, which is before that injury.

When we talk about his relative diffulty with an improved/tighter NHL, there is no need to talk about his 1991 injury, given that there are several seasons between the beginnings of the two factors.
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Anybody can watch Gretzky in the '80s and '90s and see exactly what I'm talking about. In the early '80s, Gretzky had a lot of space, a lot of time, to do his thing. And he obviously did it extremely well. By the middle of the decade, more sophisticated coaching introduced tighter play and more defensive systems to an increasing number of teams. At the same time, the NHL continued to add more talent, better skaters. The number of good players increased substantially through the decade. As a result of these things - better league, better defense - Gretzky was increasingly unable to play to his strengths to the same extent as he was in the early '80s.

The better league, of course, affected every player. But it did affect Gretzky more so than it did some other star players, including Messier, Lemieux, Chelios, and Bourque. Primary reasons were that these four players were all better all-around skaters than Gretzky, and also physically stronger than Gretzky. He still had his smarts, but his deficiencies became bigger factors in his game. He was still a great player, but his game was affected.

It most affected his goal-scoring. He had scored most of his goals from close proximity to the net. He couldn't do that anywhere close to the same ease after the mid '80s.

As I said, after the Suter hit, these two factors combined, which affected his game even more. He could still be very good, and occasionally excellent, but was never the same.

Anybody who watched hockey in the '80s and '90s should know all this. It isn't news.

Click to read more...

 

[Staniowski]

If I have this correctly, total league scoring from '84 to '90 declined by 6.6%. As I've discussed previously, in this time period, offense and defense both improved substantially in the NHL, which is why the change in scoring doesn't, at first glance, reflect the considerable improvements in defense in the league overall.

In that time period, '84 to '90, Gretzky's goal-scoring declined 53.4%.

Anybody watching hockey at the time could easily see his ability to score goals had fallen a lot, even though his goal-scoring talents hadn't changed a whole lot. He was scoring (a lot) less because it was more difficult to score.

These were his 22 and 28 year old seasons, respectively.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The knee injury in 1987 is a big part of the decrease. It impacted his edge work and ability to drive the net.

He still lead the league in goals in 1986-87. When he got hurt in 1987-88 he was 1 goal behind Lemieux for lead and on pace for 63 goals.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

He only scored 10 goals on his last 26 games post return (32 goal pace).

He basically lost 10 goals/season with that injury. He had played at a ~62 goal pace for 110ish games, then instantly became a ~51 goal pace guy for the next 110ish games.

The 1991 Suter hit rightfully gets blamed for abruptly ending his prime. But the 1987 knee injury is the second most impactful of his career.

 

[overpass]

I agree that Gretzky's goal-scoring declined against stronger teams in particular. You can see that when looking within seasons as well, against weaker and stronger competition.

Particularly during the years that his goal-scoring was declining but his playmaking remained at a very high level, from 85-86 through 90-91. In those six seasons combined, he scored as follows against RS competition:

0.600+: Gretzky scored 26 goals in 58 GP (0.45 G/GP)
0.500-0.599: Gretzky scored 95 goals in 170 GP (0.56 G/GP)
0.400-0.499: Gretzky scored 103 goals in 148 GP (0.70 G/GP)
0.000-0..399: Gretzky scored 65 goals in 76 GP (0.86 G/GP)

I think Gretzky was an incredible goal-scorer against a league that didn't play very much defense in the early to mid-80s, and then his goal scoring dropped off against stronger opponents as more and more teams improved defensively in the late 80s.

Compare to Mario Lemieux from 87-88 through 96-97 against RS competition:

0.600+: Lemieux scored 50 goals in 72 GP (0.69 G/GP)
0.500-0.599: Lemieux scored 180 goals in 209 GP (0.86 G/GP)
0.400-0.499: Lemieux scored 182 goals in 198 GP (0.92 G/GP)
0.000-0..399: Lemieux scored 66 goals in 67 GP (0.99 G/GP)

You can see prime Mario's drop-off against stronger opponents was much less steeper than late-80s Gretzky's.

 

[Dallas Winston]

This is a fact that gretzky fans like to throw in the rug. While lemieux was scoring 69 in 70 in similar scoring leagues as today. I think with the time the truth will come out

 

[Staniowski]

This is a fact that gretzky fans like to throw in the rug. While lemieux was scoring 69 in 70 in similar scoring leagues as today. I think with the time the truth will come out

Yes, Gretzky is the 2nd-best scorer (goals and assists) in the history of hockey. It is clear.

But that's not what this thread is about.

Gretzky's goal-scoring is actually a very interesting phenomenon. He scored all those goals, but he was never the best goal-scorer at any point in his career. It's kind of an illusion, but it also speaks to Gretzky, his drive, and what a great player he was.

 

[Crosby2010]

With Gretzky there is always that knock against him simply because his highs are higher than anyone else and that means his drops are bigger too. How long do people think someone can score 70+ goals a year until you drop? He scored 52 goals in a year where he averaged more than 2 assists per game. And while we have Ovechkin as the sole example of a player who scored 50 goals a year well into his 30s and even mid 30s, this just never happened prior to that. Everyone, regardless of how good of a goal scorer you were declined in their 30s with goal scoring. Another thing too, when Gretzky had 92 goals in 1982 Bossy had 64. Why didn't Bossy get more than that? And why did Bossy never get 70 in a season? Can it be that Gretzky was just a better goal scorer during their overlapping years?

 

[McPoyle]

Yes, Gretzky is the 2nd-best scorer (goals and assists) in the history of hockey. It is clear.

But that's not what this thread is about.

Gretzky's goal-scoring is actually a very interesting phenomenon. He scored all those goals, but he was never the best goal-scorer at any point in his career. It's kind of an illusion, but it also speaks to Gretzky, his drive, and what a great player he was.

Huh?

nhl.com

 

[Dingo]

its pretty clear to me that a new breed of player began coming in to the league throughout the 80s. Gretzky and Bourque were the first to arrive. Gretzky was the first modern forward.

He fell from untouchable God to one of the best before his 20s were over.

At the same time guys like Trottier, Hawerchuk and Stastny fell from 'next best' to role players by 30.

At the same time guys like Stoughton, Nilsson, Maruk, Kerr, Middleton, Ogrodnick, Vaive, Federko went from 'damned good top 10-20 players to 'obsolete'

The league changed, and every forward suffered a lot. Gretzky was just so advanced compared to those guys that he was still a very highend player even with his big drop.

 

[The Panther]

He fell from untouchable God to one of the best before his 20s were over.

How do you then explain, say, Gretzky's 1990-91 season, when he was 30?

-- 4th in ES goals (his shooting percentage was higher than in '80, '86, '88, '89, or '90)
-- 1st in assists (highest of all-time except for himself)
-- 1st in points by 32 (highest of all-time except for himself and two Mario seasons)
-- 1st in ES points (highest of all-time except for himself)

Seems pretty untouchably God-like to me...

 

[The Panther]

Aside from the obvious (general decline in League scoring and drop in team-strength after he was traded), Gretzky's drop in goal scoring from the mid-80s to late-80s / early-90s has absolutely nothing to do with improved League defense, and a lot to do with shot volume:

1984-85 to 1986-87 (all Edm.):
18.2%
1988-89 to 1990-91 (all L.A.):
18.0%

He wasn't shooting as much. That is all.

 

[Johnny Engine]

One would think improved defenses would be able to influence Gretzky to shoot less.
Proof would be, if we could get a look at on-ice shots for and against, is Gretzky transferring all his extra shot volume to his linemates, or is it just evaporating? My assumption would be that both are happening in different amounts.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Huh?

nhl.com

Obviously he means from a talent evaluation standpoint, not a counting perspective.

 

[Dingo]

How do you then explain, say, Gretzky's 1990-91 season, when he was 30?

-- 4th in ES goals (his shooting percentage was higher than in '80, '86, '88, '89, or '90)
-- 1st in assists (highest of all-time except for himself)
-- 1st in points by 32 (highest of all-time except for himself and two Mario seasons)
-- 1st in ES points (highest of all-time except for himself)

Seems pretty untouchably God-like to me...

He had the best year that year.

He was not the best goalscorer.
His assists per game, and Points per game were very similar to Oates.
Lemieux wasnt playing.

But he was still the best that year.

This is a normal human superstar having the best year of all players, at a not-advanced age.

It looks more like a standout year from Jagr or McDavid, or even, on a per game, Crosby's 3 broken years or Forsberg's little 1.5 year blip.

Its not like say 83-84, where he was 93 points clear of he first non team mate, and 31 goals clear of #2.

 

[Dingo]

Huh?

nhl.com

im with you on his one. He was well ahead of Bossy statistically, WHILE being the playmaking center of his line, instead of the recipient.

And, as far as the eyetest goes - he was awesome, i think. Quick little sidesteps into a very quick and accurate slapper, and he had good dekes, too. I don't see anyone from that time period who appealed to me as a clearly better scorer at all.

I didnt actually watch much of young Lemieux, not until 87CC, so i can't say that i went "oh! thats a next level goalscorer" when he came into the league (but, its probably the truth) but i do remember watching Bure and also Brett Hull's onetimers (which reminded me of Kurri, but better, i thought) and going, "there are higher levels to this?"

I think Gretzky was, even just by looking, at LEAST as good as Bossy, Stastny, Kurri, Dionne, etc. And then the numbers shake out to where I gotta accept it whether i saw it or not.

 

[MadLuke]

has absolutely nothing to do with improved League defense, and a lot to do with shot volume:

The assumption that taken less shots (without improving your shot%) has nothing to do with improved defense. seem farfetch to me.,

Could you imagine in basketball a player that always score less against the best team defense in the league, someone look at it oh is FG% do not go down or up, he just shoot less, so that has nothing to do with the other team defense.

I feel the premise made, is that it was harder for Gretzky to be able to take as many 18% shoot because team got better and at letting other teams have them,,,, (and Gretzky being Gretzky instead of taking bad shots to keep is volume up did find others ways to make goals happen)

This feel with starting with the answer and reasoning back a little bit, if shoot volume had stayed the same it would have been nothing to do with team defense, took as many shoots, goaltenders equipment got better.

 

[Frank Cannon PI]

Its not like say 83-84, where he was 93 points clear of he first non team mate, and 31 goals clear of #2.

We shouldn't overlook that he wasn't playing with the 1983-84 versions of Kurri, Messier, Anderson, and Coffey in 1990-91. I'm most impressed by what he did in 1990-91, considering who he was playing with, and how the league was drastically changing.

Also, Gretzky (IMO) evolved beyond a point where he needed to score as many goals as he could. I imagine that he got more out of passing, that it was more synergistic for everyone on the team.

That's why I prefer Lafleur and Bossy over Ovechkin, they passed the puck as much or more than they scored.

 

[Dingo]

The assumption that taken less shots (without improving your shot%) has nothing to do with improved defense. seem farfetch to me.,

Could you imagine in basketball a player that always score less against the best team defense in the league, someone look at it oh is FG% do not go down or up, he just shoot less, so that has nothing to do with the other team defense.

I feel the premise made, is that it was harder for Gretzky to be able to take as many 18% shoot because team got better and not letting have them,,,,

This feel with starting with the answer and reasoning back a little bit, if shoot volume had stayed the same it would have been nothing to do with team defense, took as many shoots, goaltenders equipment got better.

yep. A player doesnt just GET to shoot. Especially a high end scorer - teams are literally trying to stop that player FROM shooting as one of their main goals.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Ah yes, another round of the league somehow got better the instant Lemieux was drafted argument...

 

[McPoyle]

Obviously he means from a talent evaluation standpoint, not a counting perspective.

If a player has almost 100 more goals than the next highest in a 4 year span, I think from a talent evaluation standpoint that player can pretty comfortably be considered the best.

 

[Michael Farkas]

If a player has almost 100 more goals than the next highest in a 4 year span, I think from a talent evaluation standpoint that player can pretty comfortably be considered the best.

Sure. That may well be true. But you can't count your way to a proper talent evaluation still. I'm not saying Gretzky isn't the best in whatever span you're talking about (I didn't click the stats link, I know the guy scored plenty haha)...you still have to do the work if you want to be sure because there's a lot of factors that go into the result and not all of them are talent.

 

[MadLuke]

If a player has almost 100 more goals than the next highest in a 4 year span, I think from a talent evaluation standpoint that player can pretty comfortably be considered the best.

That fair enough of course, but this message board went in great length explaining the rational.

To make maybe a stupid argument from 2014 to 2017 in the khl.

Mozyakin scored 141 goals in 220 games, .64 gpg
Kovalchuck scored 89 goals in 209 games, .43 gpg

kovalchuck was 1-2 year younger, would that close the debate for who was the better goal scorer and we are certain Mozyakin would have scored more than 500 goals in the nhl if he went to the blue jackets instead of staying in Russia, after all he was significantly better than a HOF caliber talent in Kovalchuck that scored 440 despite taking long breaks.

I think we could find a list of case of player outscoring another one and shifting place when they change league, AHL-NHL, junior-NHL, KHL-NHL, etc...

That while in this specific case, someone outscored another, it is still possible in some other way hockey is played it would be the reverse, it is not like 100-meter sprint, where someone faster is just faster than the others.

Gretzky case over Bossy is great, but if you look at playoff.

Gretzky 84-88 cup winning era he scored at a .63 goal per games in his high scoring youth 81-85, it was .81 goal per games.
79-83 cup winning Bossy era he scored at a .82 goal per games, 79-83 it was .73.

It already look less crazy of a statement, when you compare Bossy vs Gretzky against top half defense in the league and minute played, look less crazy.

Peak Gretzky was certainly better at scoring more goals in a season, Bossy has no argument there.

If someone is more talking need a goal against a great team defense, 3rd period, everyone is doing their maximum effort, you still take Gretzky because he make more likely for a goal to happen obviously, but in term of being the one scoring it, Isles fans saying give Bossy is not necessarily crazy.

1981 Canada cup, Bossy 8 goals, Gretzky 5 goals, 1984 Canada cup both scored 5 goals. At least that how I see people making those arguments, Gretzky endurance, drives, complete tool kit, made it so he would outscore a peak Bossy over a season, in a playoff run, less obvious.

 

[The Panther]

Prime Gretzky (not 1991-92-or-after-Gretzky, which is entirely different) is clearly not a player where we can conclude that "he took less shots because NHL defense was better".

Look at Gretzky's shooting percentage from 1984 and 1986 (two years with basically identical League-scoring levels and identical Oiler-offensive levels):
1984 -- 26.7% (94-goal pace)
1986 -- 14.9% (52-goal pace)
He is taking the same number of shots in these seasons, but in 1986 is scoring goals at a pace of 42-fewer than two seasons prior.

Why did that happen? Well, he played a bit more on the point on the PP, and also he inexplicably had a long goalless-streak around Feb. 1986, which both contributed. But probably the main reason is that he was more focused on setting up teammates, as all of Kurri, Coffey, and Anderson were producing at peak-career levels all through that season. In other words, Gretzky was becoming more of a pass-in-Grade-A-situations and shoot-from-the-perimeter player. It certainly had nothing to do with improved League defense.

Want more proof of this? Jump to the very next season (1986-87). League-parity was suddenly the highest in 50+ years and scoring was down, but In the first 38 games of the season, Wayne scored 39 goals and leaped back up to 22.9% shooting (bettered only by Tim Kerr among players with 100+ shots on net). Why was he suddenly back to peak goal-production in the first half of this season? It's probably because all of Coffey, Kurri, and Anderson's were struggling to score in the first half.

Clearly, there are a lot of factors involved in prime-Gretzky's goal-scoring production besides improved League defense.

Generally, c.1980 to 1988 (Edmonton) Gretzky is around a 60-goals-per-year player, with 1982 and 1984 as outlier season for his goal-scoring. And in his first three years in Los Angeles, he was around a 45-50 goals-per-year player. Given League scoring rates dropping a bit from, say, 1984 to 1990, it is not a particularly big change from 60 to 47 goals a year.

Gretzky becoming more of a perimeter shooter, I believe, had nothing to do with League defense and a lot to do with self-preservation. As another poster noted, the first injury to keep him out of 15-ish or more games occurred on Dec. 30th 1987. Immediately after that, he dropped from a 60-goal guy to a 47-goal guy. (Of course, getting traded to a weaker team likely didn't help this.)

 

[McPoyle]

I'm not saying Gretzky isn't the best in whatever span you're talking about

But you did say that in your original comment, where you stated that Gretzky was never once the best scorer at any point in his career.

That is quite the statement and you should probably do more work to show how you conclude that.

 

[Overrated]

Ah yes, another round of the league somehow got better the instant Lemieux was drafted argument...

Isn't the argument usually that throughout the entire 1980s and early 90s there was an explosion of the amount of talent? I think that is indeed very true.