Gretzky's decline in goal-scoring

[Big Phil]

Age during final fifty goal season

Player|Age
Jaromir Jagr | 33
Phil Esposito | 32
Joe Mullen | 31
Joe Sakic | 31
Marcel Dionne | 31
Mario Lemieux | 31
Dave Andreychuk | 30
Jarome Iginla | 30
Alexander Ovechkin | 29
Brett Hull | 29
Lanny McDonald | 29
Mike Bossy | 29
Peter Bondra | 29
Guy Lafleur | 28
Wayne Gretkzy | 28
Bernie Nicholls | 27
Pat Lafontaine | 27
Steve Yzerman | 27
Teemu Selanne | 27
Alexander Mogilny | 26
Dino Ciccarelli | 26
Jari Kurri | 26
Luc Robitaille | 26
Brendan Shanahan | 25
Brian Bellows | 25
Bryan Trottier | 25
Glenn Anderson | 25
Michel Goulet | 25
Mike Gartner | 25
Keith Tkachuk | 24
Mark Recchi | 24
Sergei Fedorov | 24
Jeremy Roenick | 23
Mike Modano | 23
Pierre Turgeon | 23
Joe Nieuwendyk | 22
Theo Fleury | 22
Dale Hawerchuk | 21
Mark Messier | 21

Funny thing is, of the ones who scored a 50 goal season older than Gretzky, very few were doing it regularly.

McDonald had 66 his last year but the kicker is this is his only 50 goal year. Andreychuk was a 50 goal man twice, which coincided with him being Gilmour's winger. Bondra, who never did anything other than score goals never had one after 29. Lafleur literally collapsed after he was 29, all around. Mullen had one 50 goal year. Jagr hadn't had one in quite some time, nor did Sakic. Both were 5 years after their previous one. Iginla was hit and miss with 50 goal seasons. Brett Hull peaked later as a goal scorer. So that leaves Bossy, Dionne, Esposito and for now Ovechkin as guys who were routinely hitting 50 goals a year - like Gretzky - prior to their last. Lemieux to be fair did have lots of injuries and time off, or even a season off, prior to his last 50 goal year.

So yeah, I've never seen the fuss over this. Gretzky did what everyone else did, his goal scoring dropped in his 30s. It is a very natural thing to have happen. For a guy who is thought of having "benefitted" from playing in the 1980s, he sure dominated the 1990s as well. Gretzky had 100 more points than anyone else in the 1990s, a decade where he was past his prime. What does that tell you?

As for goal scoring, I've yet to hear someone tell me just how long they expected the man to keep scoring 70+ goals a year, as if it was child's play.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

To respond to a few comments (apologies for the delay):

1. I agree that Gretzky made a conscious decision to score less and pass more starting around 1987. This has been discussed extensively in other threads. I agree with The Panther that this makes his numbers even more impressive relative to pure shooters like Hull, Gartner, Ciccarelli, etc. who didn't compensate for their goal-scoring decline with more assists.

2. Sentinel - Bure wasn't included because I only included the fifty players who scored the most goals from 1967-68 to 2014-15. Bure barely missed the cut (even though I'm well aware that he's a better goal-scorer than many players included in the sample).

3. An interesting area for future research is looking at how Gretzky's goals-to-assist ratio changes over the course of his career, relative to other star players. (Thanks Jacob for this suggestion). He obviously became more focused on assists but I wonder if his G/A ratio changed in a similar manner to other star players?

4. I see where the "Gretzky doesn't have any peers, so anything showing him as average is an insult" line of thinking comes from - but I don't agree. To be clear, I`m not saying that he`s average - just that his decline from his peak (which was probably the best in history) was, on a percentage basis, similar to the other top goal-scorers of his generation. If you're the best, and you decline at a similar rate compared to most players, you're still way above average.

5. Big Phil - good point. Only eight players scored 50+ at or after age 30. I don`t want to say ``fluke`` but that was the first time Jagr even his 40 in five years. Sakic had just one 40+ goal season in the past five years. Andreychuk got there largely thanks to Gilmour. Mullen hit 50 for the only time in his career. Lemieux scored 69 goals the year before but had 17 goals in the previous two seasons combined. Even most of the players who scored 50 goals later than Gretzky didn`t hit that milestone with consistency (though Dionne and Esposito are notable exceptions).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here`s yet another way to look at the data. Looking at the same fifty players, here are their careers divided into four-year segments, ranked in descending order of goals scored. I ignore everything after year 20. Trottier averaged 46.3 goals in his four best seasons (50, 47, 46, 42), then 35.8 in his next best (40, 37, 34, 32), etc.

Player | Years 1-4 | Years 5-8 | Years 9-12 | Years 13-16 | Years 17-20
Wayne Gretkzy | 80.75 | 55.75 | 43 | 29.25 | 14.75
Mario Lemieux | 73.25 | 49.25 | 37.5 | 12.25 | 0.25
Brett Hull | 71.25 | 45 | 35 | 28 | 14
Phil Esposito | 67.75 | 47.25 | 35.5 | 10.25 | 0
Mike Bossy | 65.5 | 55.5 | 22.25 | 0 | 0
Jari Kurri | 61.25 | 41.25 | 30.5 | 16 | 1.25
Steve Yzerman | 59 | 42.5 | 31.25 | 22 | 14.75
Teemu Selanne | 56.75 | 40 | 30.25 | 26.25 | 15.5
Marcel Dionne | 56.5 | 49 | 38.75 | 30.75 | 7.75
Alexander Ovechkin | 56.5 | 46.25 | 16 | 0 | 0
Guy Lafleur | 56.25 | 40.25 | 27.25 | 15.75 | 0.5
Michel Goulet | 55.25 | 42.75 | 24.5 | 14.5 | 0
Jaromir Jagr | 53.75 | 39.25 | 32.5 | 29.75 | 21.25
Luc Robitaille | 53.5 | 44.5 | 35.5 | 23 | 10.5
Alexander Mogilny | 53.25 | 31.5 | 21.25 | 12.25 | 0
Lanny McDonald | 50.5 | 38 | 24.25 | 12.25 | 0
Joe Sakic | 50.25 | 37.25 | 29.25 | 25.5 | 14
Pat Lafontaine | 50 | 41 | 21.25 | 4.75 | 0
Glenn Anderson | 49.5 | 36.25 | 25 | 13.75 | 0
Bernie Nicholls | 49 | 32.25 | 21.5 | 14.5 | 1.5
Mike Gartner | 48.75 | 42.75 | 37.25 | 34.25 | 14
Dino Ciccarelli | 48.75 | 40.25 | 34.5 | 19.25 | 9.25
Peter Bondra | 48.75 | 35.25 | 27 | 14.75 | 0
Brendan Shanahan | 48.5 | 37.75 | 30.5 | 27.75 | 18
Joe Nieuwendyk | 48 | 35.75 | 27 | 20.5 | 9.75
Dale Hawerchuk | 47.75 | 40.5 | 28.75 | 12.5 | 0
Mark Messier | 47.5 | 36.75 | 32.25 | 23.75 | 18.75
Jeremy Roenick | 47.5 | 31.25 | 25.25 | 16.25 | 8
Dave Andreychuk | 47 | 35.25 | 28.25 | 22.25 | 18.75
Jarome Iginla | 46.5 | 36 | 31.25 | 26.75 | 6.75
Bryan Trottier | 46.25 | 35.75 | 29.75 | 16 | 3.25
Peter Stastny | 46.25 | 36.75 | 23.75 | 5.75 | 0
Joe Mullen | 46 | 39.75 | 27.75 | 12 | 0
Keith Tkachuk | 45.75 | 35.5 | 28.25 | 21 | 4
Theo Fleury | 44.25 | 32 | 27.25 | 10.25 | 0
Mark Recchi | 44 | 31 | 27.25 | 22.25 | 16
Pierre Turgeon | 44 | 33.75 | 26.5 | 17 | 7.5
Brian Bellows | 44 | 33.5 | 26.25 | 16 | 1.5
Pat Verbeek | 43.5 | 35.5 | 23.75 | 17.75 | 10
Darry Sittler | 43 | 38 | 31 | 9 | 0
Denis Savard | 42.25 | 33 | 26.5 | 14.25 | 4.75
Marian Hossa | 41.75 | 32.25 | 28 | 19.5 | 0
Mats Sundin | 41.5 | 32.75 | 31.5 | 27.25 | 8
Sergei Fedorov | 41.25 | 31.5 | 28.5 | 15.25 | 4.25
Gilbert Perreault | 41 | 34.75 | 28.75 | 21.25 | 2.25
Mike Modano | 39.75 | 33.5 | 29.5 | 22.75 | 13.75
Patrick Marleau | 38.25 | 30.75 | 23.75 | 18 | 3.25
Doug Gilmour | 35.5 | 26 | 24 | 17.5 | 9.5
Rod Brind'Amour | 35.25 | 27.5 | 23.25 | 16.5 | 10.5
Ron Francis | 30.5 | 27 | 24.75 | 23.5 | 21.75

Gretzky has the highest average in years 1-4 (ahead of Bossy, Lemieux, Dionne and Esposito). Ovechkin is 6th which is a remarkable result given that he peaked in such a low scoring era.

Gretzky has the highest average in years 5-8. He`s barely ahead of Bossy - the two of them are the only two players to average more than 50 goals per year here. They`re both comfortably ahead of Lemieux, Dionne and Esposito though.

Gretzky has the highest average in years 9-12. In fact he`s the only player to average more than 40 goals a year here. The next closest players are Dionne, Lemieux, Gartner (consistency pays!) and Esposito/Robitialle (tied). This is where Bossy drops like a rock (injury plagued 10th season, and zero goals scored in his 11th and 12th). Yes, there's a good chance Bossy would have scored a lot of goals those two years but we can't give him credit for what he didn't actually do.

In the years 13-16 category, Gartner and Dionne lead, being the only two players to average 30+ goals so deep into their careers. Rounding out the top five are Jagr, Gretzky and Hull.

In the years 17-20 category, the leaders are Francis, Jagr, Messier, Andreychuk and Shanahan. Francis has a bizarre profile - he's not a goal scorer at all. He has by far the lowest average in his best four seasons, and the second worst result in the next four. Gretzky ranks 8th here, tied with Yzerman.

Once again, these are all raw numbers, not adjusted for era. If I used adjusted numbers, his peak would be slightly less impressive, but the numbers from the second half of his career would improve, so the rate of decline is probably even less than is suggested here.

According to this metric, as deep as year twelve, Gretzky has the best results over the past fifty years (give or take). In the years 13-16 category, he`s still in the top five. The only criticism that you can make is that he dropped off by years 17-20 but he`s still far ahead of Lemieux, Bossy, Esposito and his other closest competitors who had either retired by then or were plagued with injuries.

(Note: the numbers of goals these players scored in the 21st season and beyond is trivial. 41 of them scored zero goals. Six of them scored less than twenty goals (Jagr, Recchi, Yzerman, Selanne, Shanahan, Modano). Messier, Francis and Andreychuk scored 58, 39 and 34, respectively).

 

[The Panther]

That chart is really interesting, Hockey Outsider. I'm glad to have that data!

1. I agree that Gretzky made a conscious decision to score less and pass more starting around 1987. This has been discussed extensively in other threads. I agree with The Panther that this makes his numbers even more impressive relative to pure shooters like Hull, Gartner, Ciccarelli, etc. who didn't compensate for their goal-scoring decline with more assists.

Well, his numbers are more impressive after goal-scoring decline than pure shooters, yes, BUT I don't think Gretzky made a conscious decision to score goals less. The only exception to that would be the 1985-86 season. I think there was a point, probably in mid-season, where Gretzky realized his goals were down a bit and assists a bit up, and he he probably did decide that he was going for 160 assists or whatever goal he set. I think in January 1986, he went about 8 games without a goal for the first time in his career, and it's entirely likely he was focusing more on assists.

However, he then came back to lead the NHL in goals the next season, and still scored at a 50+ goal pace for three more seasons.

So, I think there was just a gradual change in his style circa 1987 to 1991. He became less willing to go to the front of the net, for example. (Going to the front of the net and scoring on Dec. 30th, 1987, for example, resulted in his first serious injury.) And when he set up behind the net, it became increasingly rare for him to come out and try to score as he frequently had before. We'll never know (Gretzky probably doesn't "know" either) how much of this was conscious or not, but I suspect it was just an evolution in his game, probably for self preservation.

Also, it's tricky to say that he "compensated" with more assists -- I know you actually mean relative to pure shooters -- when the only season he really did that was 1985-86. Otherwise, he simply scored fewer goals, while his assists totals remained superhuman.

(On a marginally-related note, Gretzky's 122 assists with L.A. in 1991 are the most by any player since 1986. For the 'Adjusted Stats' fans, 1990-91 is his second-best assists season ever, only beat by 1986.)


It would be interesting to ask Gretzky himself about this matter, but luckily he's busy supporting Steven "Hitler" Harper, and so has better things to do...