Gretzky's decline in goal-scoring

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

(Mods: some of the content here overlaps with other recent threads but I wanted to keep it seperate due to the number of charts that people might find useful in other contexts. But not strongly opposed if you want to merge this).

Some people have criticized Gretzky because his last 50 goal season was at age 28, and his last 40 goal season was at age 30. The implication is that Gretzky is overrated and that his dominant goal-scoring early in his career is a result of him feasting on the poor goaltending and the lack of parity that (allegedly) existed in the early 1980s - and that, had he played in another era, he would have been a less dominant goal-scorer. (This doesn't explain why nobody else approached his numbers, but that's another story).

This analysis is flawed because it doesn't take into account how Gretzky compared to other great goal-scorers. I've compiled the single-season goal-scoring data for the fifty players who have scored the most goals post-expansion (ie from 1967-68 to 2014-15). Coincidentally, these fifty players each scored at least 450 goals. (Note 1). I think this is a reasonable peer group to compare Gretzky to.

I looked at the player's age during their last 40 & 50 goal seasons. If Gretzky never scored 40+ goals after age 30, but that's comparable to how his peer group performs, I think even his staunchest critics would acknowledge that this wouldn't be an argument against him.

(Note 1: the only player on this list whose career precedes expansion is Phil Esposito, but his goal-scoring peak clearly happened after expansion. Five players are still active - Jagr, Iginla, Marleau, Hossa and Ovechkin - but only the latter has a realistic chance of scoring 40+ goals in the future).

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

Age during final fifty goal season

Of the fifty players in my sample, eleven never scored fifty goals in a season (Sittler, Savard, Gilmour, Perreault, Hossa, Sundin, Verbeek, Marleau, Stastny, Brind'Amour, Francis).

Gretzky scored his last fifty goal season at age 28. Of the players who scored 50 at least once, the average age during their final 50+ goal season was 26.6. Gretzky actually scored his final 50 goal season a bit later than the average for his peer group.

Only thirteen players scored 50 goals after age 28, and only eight of them scored 50 goals after age 30. Surprisingly, more than half of these players scored their last 50 goal season no later than age 26.

At this risk of stating the obvious, goal-scorers tend to peak at a young age. It`s rare for them to score 50+ goals into their late 20s or beyond. In this sense, Gretzky`s performance is very much in line with his peer group.

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

Age during final forty goal season

Of the fifty players in my sample, all but two (Brind'Amour, Francis) scored forty goals at least once.

Gretzky scored his last forty goal season at age 30. Of the players who scored 40 at least once, the average age during their final 50+ goal season was 29.3. Gretzky actually scored his final 40 goal season a bit later than the average for his peer group.

Eighteen players scored 40 goals after age 30, and only nine of them scored 40 goals after age 32. More players scored their last 40 goal season before age thirty (23) than after (18). The most common age for a final forty goal season was age 30.

Once again, Gretzky`s performance is very much in line with his peer group.

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

Goal-scoring span

I also wanted to look at the span of each player's 40+ and 50+ goal seasons - looking at the difference in their age between their youngest and oldest milestone seasons.

Longest span between fifty goal seasons

Player | Oldest | Youngest | Span
Jaromir Jagr | 33 | 23 | 11
Mario Lemieux | 31 | 21 | 11
Alexander Ovechkin | 29 | 20 | 10
Wayne Gretkzy | 28 | 19 | 10
Mike Bossy | 29 | 21 | 9
Marcel Dionne | 31 | 25 | 7
Jarome Iginla | 30 | 24 | 7
Joe Sakic | 31 | 26 | 6
Guy Lafleur | 28 | 23 | 6
Steve Yzerman | 27 | 22 | 6
Teemu Selanne | 27 | 22 | 6
Dino Ciccarelli | 26 | 21 | 6
Luc Robitaille | 26 | 21 | 6
Phil Esposito | 32 | 28 | 5
Brett Hull | 29 | 25 | 5
Pat Lafontaine | 27 | 24 | 4
Alexander Mogilny | 26 | 23 | 4
Jari Kurri | 26 | 23 | 4
Michel Goulet | 25 | 22 | 4
Peter Bondra | 29 | 27 | 3
Glenn Anderson | 25 | 23 | 3
Dave Andreychuk | 30 | 29 | 2
Brendan Shanahan | 25 | 24 | 2
Keith Tkachuk | 24 | 23 | 2
Jeremy Roenick | 23 | 22 | 2
Joe Nieuwendyk | 22 | 21 | 2
Joe Mullen | 31 | 31 | 1
Lanny McDonald | 29 | 29 | 1
Bernie Nicholls | 27 | 27 | 1
Brian Bellows | 25 | 25 | 1
Bryan Trottier | 25 | 25 | 1
Mike Gartner | 25 | 25 | 1
Mark Recchi | 24 | 24 | 1
Sergei Fedorov | 24 | 24 | 1
Mike Modano | 23 | 23 | 1
Pierre Turgeon | 23 | 23 | 1
Theo Fleury | 22 | 22 | 1
Dale Hawerchuk | 21 | 21 | 1
Mark Messier | 21 | 21 | 1
Darry Sittler | 0 | 0 | 0
Denis Savard | 0 | 0 | 0
Doug Gilmour | 0 | 0 | 0
Gilbert Perreault | 0 | 0 | 0
Marian Hossa | 0 | 0 | 0
Mats Sundin | 0 | 0 | 0
Pat Verbeek | 0 | 0 | 0
Patrick Marleau | 0 | 0 | 0
Peter Stastny | 0 | 0 | 0
Rod Brind'Amour | 0 | 0 | 0
Ron Francis | 0 | 0 | 0

Gretzky scored fifty goals nine times, spanning ten seasons from ages 19 to 28. This is actually the third-longest stretch between fifty goal seasons in this sample (only Jagr and Lemieux top this, with ten seasons each). Ovechkin is, in my opinion, likely to break the tie with Gretzky.

Of the 39 players with at least one fifty goal season, 26 of them had a span of no more than five seasons. The average span between first and last fifty goal seasons (among the 39 players who achieved this at least once) is exactly 4.0 years. Gretzky's longevity as an elite goal-scorer is, in this case, superior to his peer group.

Longest span between forty goal seasons

Player | Oldest | Youngest | Span
Teemu Selanne | 36 | 22 | 15
Mark Messier | 35 | 21 | 15
Brendan Shanahan | 37 | 24 | 14
Marcel Dionne | 33 | 21 | 13
Mike Gartner | 33 | 21 | 13
Mario Lemieux | 31 | 19 | 13
Dino Ciccarelli | 32 | 21 | 12
Wayne Gretkzy | 30 | 19 | 12
Phil Esposito | 36 | 26 | 11
Jaromir Jagr | 33 | 23 | 11
Joe Sakic | 31 | 21 | 11
Jarome Iginla | 33 | 24 | 10
Mats Sundin | 30 | 21 | 10
Alexander Ovechkin | 29 | 20 | 10
Brian Bellows | 28 | 19 | 10
Joe Mullen | 34 | 26 | 9
Brett Hull | 32 | 24 | 9
Alexander Mogilny | 31 | 23 | 9
Pat Verbeek | 31 | 23 | 9
Pat Lafontaine | 30 | 22 | 9
Theo Fleury | 30 | 22 | 9
Mike Bossy | 29 | 21 | 9
Darry Sittler | 32 | 25 | 8
Luc Robitaille | 27 | 20 | 8
Dale Hawerchuk | 25 | 18 | 8
Peter Stastny | 31 | 25 | 7
Marian Hossa | 30 | 24 | 7
Lanny McDonald | 29 | 23 | 7
Jari Kurri | 28 | 22 | 7
Bryan Trottier | 27 | 21 | 7
Michel Goulet | 27 | 21 | 7
Peter Bondra | 32 | 27 | 6
Guy Lafleur | 28 | 23 | 6
Bernie Nicholls | 27 | 22 | 6
Steve Yzerman | 27 | 22 | 6
Dave Andreychuk | 30 | 26 | 5
Gilbert Perreault | 29 | 25 | 5
Keith Tkachuk | 25 | 21 | 5
Glenn Anderson | 25 | 22 | 4
Mark Recchi | 25 | 22 | 4
Jeremy Roenick | 24 | 21 | 4
Joe Nieuwendyk | 24 | 21 | 4
Pierre Turgeon | 23 | 20 | 4
Denis Savard | 26 | 24 | 3
Patrick Marleau | 30 | 30 | 1
Sergei Fedorov | 24 | 24 | 1
Doug Gilmour | 23 | 23 | 1
Mike Modano | 23 | 23 | 1
Rod Brind'Amour | 0 | 0 | 0
Ron Francis | 0 | 0 | 0

Gretzky had 40 goal seasons 12 years apart. He isn't the leader here, but is in the top quartile. The average span (excluding Brind'Amour and Francis) is 7.8 years.

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

Average age during best season

There are a number of ways to analyze the data. I'm defining best seasons as the five best campaign, irrespective of whether they're consecutive, looking at total number of goals scored. One can tweak the data - look at per-game results, limit to consecutive seasons, choose three or six years, etc., but I think this is a starting point.

Average goals & average age during best five seasons

Player|Average goals|Average Age
Patrick Marleau | 37.2 | 30
Phil Esposito | 65.2 | 30
Peter Bondra | 46.8 | 29.8
Joe Mullen | 45 | 29.6
Darry Sittler | 42.4 | 28.6
Jarome Iginla | 45 | 28.4
Marcel Dionne | 55.8 | 28
Teemu Selanne | 54.8 | 27.8
Doug Gilmour | 33.8 | 27.6
Peter Stastny | 45.2 | 27.6
Alexander Mogilny | 49.2 | 27
Brendan Shanahan | 47 | 27
Brett Hull | 67.8 | 27
Mike Gartner | 48 | 27
Jaromir Jagr | 51.8 | 26.8
Marian Hossa | 40.6 | 26.8
Dave Andreychuk | 45.2 | 26.6
Pat Verbeek | 42.6 | 26.6
Gilbert Perreault | 40.6 | 26.2
Mike Modano | 38.6 | 26.2
Joe Sakic | 48.4 | 26
Mark Messier | 45.4 | 26
Rod Brind'Amour | 34.4 | 25.6
Sergei Fedorov | 39.4 | 25.6
Theo Fleury | 42.2 | 25.6
Dino Ciccarelli | 47.2 | 25.4
Lanny McDonald | 48.4 | 25.4
Mats Sundin | 39.8 | 25.4
Mike Bossy | 64.4 | 25.2
Guy Lafleur | 55.4 | 25
Bernie Nicholls | 46.4 | 24.8
Mario Lemieux | 69.4 | 24.6
Ron Francis | 29.8 | 24.6
Alexander Ovechkin | 55.4 | 24.4
Keith Tkachuk | 44.2 | 24.4
Mark Recchi | 42 | 24.4
Pat Lafontaine | 49 | 24.4
Joe Nieuwendyk | 46.2 | 24.2
Steve Yzerman | 57.2 | 24.2
Denis Savard | 41.2 | 24
Jari Kurri | 58 | 24
Jeremy Roenick | 44.8 | 24
Michel Goulet | 54 | 24
Bryan Trottier | 45 | 23.6
Wayne Gretkzy | 77 | 23.2
Glenn Anderson | 47.2 | 23
Pierre Turgeon | 42.8 | 23
Brian Bellows | 42.2 | 22.6
Luc Robitaille | 51.8 | 22.4
Dale Hawerchuk | 47 | 21.6

In this sample, the average age for the five best seasons per player was 25.7 and the median was 25.5. In total, 41 players peaked between ages 23 and 28. Gretzky has one of the lower averages here, but it's still only about two years below the average for the group.

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

After looking at the information in a number of different ways, my conclusion is that Gretzky`s performance is generally in line with his (impressive) peer group. Looking at his age during his milestone seasons, and the span between his oldest and youngest milestone seasons, he consistently ranks at or above average. The only metric by which he appears to have peaked early is looking at the average of his best five seasons. In most types of analyses there will be factors for and against certain conclusions but, on balance, the evidence suggests that Gretzky had a fairly normal career trajectory as a goal-scorer.

One important factor absent from my analysis, which would overstate the extent of his decline, perhaps significantly, is the level of scoring league-wide. As most people reading this already know, the level of offense dropped significantly over the span of his career. There are a number of metrics that account for league scoring levels, all with their own advantages and disadvantages, but Gretzky`s decline looks much more gradual taking that into account. Remember that there are two variables at play here that reduced his goal-scoring as his career progressed: 1) his age and 2) the league scoring context. Since they both had negative effects on his raw numbers, and both moved consistently in lockstep during the course of his career, it`s quite remarkably that Gretkzy`s goal-scoring numbers have held up fairly well even without taking this context into account.

Mickey Marner · Sep 17, 2015

Great work. Gretzky had over 900 professional hockey games of wear and tear before his final 50 goal season as well. I'd bet only Jagr tops that.

The Panther · Sep 17, 2015

Interesting data. The thing with Gretzky that needs to be taken into account is that he was both an uber-elite goal-scorer and the uber-elite playmaker. In a goal-scoring context then, this clearly marks his case as different from, say, Brett Hull or Joe Mullen or Peter Bondra (or, in future, Ovechkin).

In 1990-91, for example, Gretzky almost certainly could have scored 50 goals if he were his team's "goal-scorer". He scored 41 in the end, but I think he had 26 or 27 goals in the first half, and then he scored more points in the second half than the first half (the Kings were doing very well). It is therefore fairly obvious that if he had been focused on goal-scoring (like, Hull, Mullen, Bondra), he would have scored 50+. So, that would have been a 50-goal season at age 30, if he'd had a role similar to those players.

In 1993-94, he scored 38 goals, and largely "gave-up" on his (crappy) team late in the season. Another example of where he would certainly have scored 40+ (age 33) if he's been focused on goals.

After 1994, it seems unlikely that Gretzky would have ever scored 40+ goals no matter his role.

Given all this, his fairly standard positioning in comparison to peers vis-a-vis age is all the more impressive.

Supreme King · Sep 17, 2015

Hockey Outsider said:
Age during final fifty goal season

Player|Age
Jaromir Jagr | 33
Phil Esposito | 32
Joe Mullen | 31
Joe Sakic | 31
Marcel Dionne | 31
Mario Lemieux | 31
Dave Andreychuk | 30
Jarome Iginla | 30
Alexander Ovechkin | 29
Brett Hull | 29
Lanny McDonald | 29
Mike Bossy | 29
Peter Bondra | 29
Guy Lafleur | 28
Wayne Gretkzy | 28
Bernie Nicholls | 27
Pat Lafontaine | 27
Steve Yzerman | 27
Teemu Selanne | 27
Alexander Mogilny | 26
Dino Ciccarelli | 26
Jari Kurri | 26
Luc Robitaille | 26
Brendan Shanahan | 25
Brian Bellows | 25
Bryan Trottier | 25
Glenn Anderson | 25
Michel Goulet | 25
Mike Gartner | 25
Keith Tkachuk | 24
Mark Recchi | 24
Sergei Fedorov | 24
Jeremy Roenick | 23
Mike Modano | 23
Pierre Turgeon | 23
Joe Nieuwendyk | 22
Theo Fleury | 22
Dale Hawerchuk | 21
Mark Messier | 21

Of the fifty players in my sample, eleven never scored fifty goals in a season (Sittler, Savard, Gilmour, Perreault, Hossa, Sundin, Verbeek, Marleau, Stastny, Brind'Amour, Francis).

Gretzky scored his last fifty goal season at age 28. Of the players who scored 50 at least once, the average age during their final 50+ goal season was 26.6. Gretzky actually scored his final 50 goal season a bit later than the average for his peer group.

Only thirteen players scored 50 goals after age 28, and only eight of them scored 50 goals after age 30. Surprisingly, more than half of these players scored their last 50 goal season no later than age 26.

At this risk of stating the obvious, goal-scorers tend to peak at a young age. It`s rare for them to score 50+ goals into their late 20s or beyond. In this sense, Gretzky`s performance is very much in line with his peer group.

Outstanding research.

bobholly39 · Sep 17, 2015

Your posts are comparing Gretzky to many other players, and looking at 40 and 50 goal seasons, vs age.

The only critic i might have about your work is that it doesn't necessarily factor in the actual amount of goals scored.

Gretzky scored 92 and 87 goals...I could be wrong, but i believe that in those 2 years, if instead of 92 and 87 goals he had scored 500 goals (that's right - 500 goals per season for 2 years) - Gretzky would still rank in the exact same position in every one of your tables.

So - if you intent was to show that - as a top NHL goal scorer, one who can score 40 or 50 goals in a year, and taking into account how late in their careers they're able to do so - Gretzky looks really good, you accomplished that.
If your intent was also to show that Gretzky didn't decline in goal scoring ability anymore than most other goal scorers, as he was average age during his last 40 and 50 goal years, you accomplished that too.

But - you don't necessarily tackle the issue of his decline in goal scoring ability. Most of those people on that list peaked at ~50 goals per season, maybe close to 60. Gretzky was much higher. Gretzky did after all go from 92 and 87 goals to 40s and 50s. In contrast - Lemieux scored 69 in 70 games late in his career, and then 35 in 43 games. Gretzky was never able to find that magic superhuman scoring touch later in his career. When you compare Gretzky to these 50 other players, you are comparing him to "average" stars.

I guess to explain what i'm trying to say, i'll quote your first post:

Hockey Outsider said:
Some people have criticized Gretzky because his last 50 goal season was at age 28, and his last 40 goal season was at age 30. The implication is that Gretzky is overrated and that his dominant goal-scoring early in his career is a result of him feasting on the poor goaltending and the lack of parity that (allegedly) existed in the early 1980s - and that, had he played in another era, he would have been a less dominant goal-scorer. (This doesn't explain why nobody else approached his numbers, but that's another story).

This analysis is flawed because it doesn't take into account how Gretzky compared to other great goal-scorers. I've compiled the single-season goal-scoring data for the fifty players who have scored the most goals post-expansion (ie from 1967-68 to 2014-15). Coincidentally, these fifty players each scored at least 450 goals. (Note 1). I think this is a reasonable peer group to compare Gretzky to.

I looked at the player's age during their last 40 & 50 goal seasons. If Gretzky never scored 40+ goals after age 30, but that's comparable to how his peer group performs, I think even his staunchest critics would acknowledge that this wouldn't be an argument against him.

(Note 1: the only player on this list whose career precedes expansion is Phil Esposito, but his goal-scoring peak clearly happened after expansion. Five players are still active - Jagr, Iginla, Marleau, Hossa and Ovechkin - but only the latter has a realistic chance of scoring 40+ goals in the future).

Looking mostly at the bolded part - I know some posters have attacked Gretzky that way before. I don't buy into that at all myself. Gretzky didn't scor 92 goals because goalies sucked, he scored 92 goals because he was awesome. As awesome a goal scorer as there's ever been. And had he played in another era, he'd have dominated just as much as a goal scorer.

But then he declined considerably as a goal scorer. Did he decline to become one of the worst scorers in the league? One who might only score 15-20 goals a year? Well - no. He IS Wayne Gretzky after all. But scoring 40 and 50 (or less) goals in a year is a huge decline for him, because he fell from so high.

Hockey Outsider · Sep 17, 2015

Here's another way of looking at the data. Let's disregard age entirely and look at the average number of goals scored during the players' top five goal-scoring years, and then compare it to their 6th through 10th best seasons.

For example, Bryan Trottier had seasons of 50, 47, 46, 42, 40, 37, 34, 32, 31 and 30 goals. Thus his production dropped from 45.0 goals per season in his best half decade to 32.8 goals per season in his next best half decade - a drop of 27%.

Player|Best five|Next five|Decrease
Alexander Mogilny | 49.2 | 28.2 | -42.7%
Guy Lafleur | 55.4 | 32.8 | -40.8%
Brett Hull | 67.8 | 40.4 | -40.4%
Bernie Nicholls | 46.4 | 28 | -39.7%
Jari Kurri | 58 | 36.8 | -36.6%
Phil Esposito | 65.2 | 41.4 | -36.5%
Jeremy Roenick | 44.8 | 28.8 | -35.7%
Teemu Selanne | 54.8 | 35.4 | -35.4%
Michel Goulet | 54 | 35 | -35.2%
Steve Yzerman | 57.2 | 37.2 | -35%
Wayne Gretkzy | 77 | 50.6 | -34.3%
Mario Lemieux | 69.4 | 46 | -33.7%
Glenn Anderson | 47.2 | 32.2 | -31.8%
Peter Bondra | 46.8 | 32 | -31.6%
Jaromir Jagr | 51.8 | 35.8 | -30.9%
Mark Recchi | 42 | 29.2 | -30.5%
Joe Nieuwendyk | 46.2 | 32.2 | -30.3%
Joe Sakic | 48.4 | 33.8 | -30.2%
Pat Lafontaine | 49 | 34.4 | -29.8%
Peter Stastny | 45.2 | 31.8 | -29.6%
Dave Andreychuk | 45.2 | 32.2 | -28.8%
Alexander Ovechkin | 55.4 | 39.6 | -28.5%
Lanny McDonald | 48.4 | 34.6 | -28.5%
Pierre Turgeon | 42.8 | 30.6 | -28.5%
Theo Fleury | 42.2 | 30.4 | -28%
Pat Verbeek | 42.6 | 30.8 | -27.7%
Bryan Trottier | 45 | 32.8 | -27.1%
Brendan Shanahan | 47 | 34.4 | -26.8%
Denis Savard | 41.2 | 30.2 | -26.7%
Brian Bellows | 42.2 | 31 | -26.5%
Keith Tkachuk | 44.2 | 32.6 | -26.2%
Marian Hossa | 40.6 | 30.2 | -25.6%
Rod Brind'Amour | 34.4 | 25.8 | -25%
Jarome Iginla | 45 | 33.8 | -24.9%
Doug Gilmour | 33.8 | 25.4 | -24.9%
Patrick Marleau | 37.2 | 28.6 | -23.1%
Mike Bossy | 64.4 | 50.2 | -22%
Dale Hawerchuk | 47 | 36.8 | -21.7%
Sergei Fedorov | 39.4 | 31 | -21.3%
Gilbert Perreault | 40.6 | 32 | -21.2%
Mark Messier | 45.4 | 36 | -20.7%
Marcel Dionne | 55.8 | 44.6 | -20.1%
Luc Robitaille | 51.8 | 41.8 | -19.3%
Mats Sundin | 39.8 | 32.4 | -18.6%
Dino Ciccarelli | 47.2 | 39 | -17.4%
Joe Mullen | 45 | 37.4 | -16.9%
Mike Modano | 38.6 | 32.4 | -16.1%
Darry Sittler | 42.4 | 36 | -15.1%
Mike Gartner | 48 | 40.8 | -15%
Ron Francis | 29.8 | 26.2 | -12.1%

One thing that immediately jumps out - Gretzky has the highest average, both for his best five years, and then also for the next five years after that. I haven't calculated data after the ten year mark (largely because of players like Ovechkin and Bossy who didn't play more than ten years). Yes, Gretzky's goal-scoring dropped after that point, but his 6th-to-10th best seasons are still better than the corresponding seasons from any other player in the past 47 years.

Overall Gretzky's production falls 34%, which is a bit higher than the 28% average for the group. But I don't think a big drop is necessarily a bad thing. Some of the players with the smallest percentage drops were really compilers rather than dominant goal-scorers (four of the bottom seven players were Francis, Gartner, Ciccarelli and Sundin).

If we drop the bottom half of the list (as those with more dominant, pronounced peaks have lower to fall than compilers) the average drop for the players in the top half of the list is 31% - just barely less than Gretzky's decrease. Once again Gretzky is very much in line with this distinguished peer group.

I just don't see much validity to the "Gretzky was an overrated goal-scorer" argument. He probably had the best five-year goal-scoring peak in NHL history. The drop that he had from the incredibly high peak is roughly in line with his peer group, and in years six through ten he's still ahead of everyone else. As we saw early, he consistently performed average to above average in "milestone" forty and fifty goal seasons, both in terms of how late they came in his career, and the span of goal-scoring dominance. Yes, he was even better as playmaker, but that doesn't make him overrated as a goal-scorer.

seventieslord · Sep 17, 2015

really good research, but I see what bobholly is saying too. I wonder if there's some metric we can use to determine the rate of decline. Something like their goal scoring rate in the seasons following their last season above a benchmark, compared to their peak rate... or something like that.

Because yeah, percentage-wise it does appear he declined more than most others in this class of players, from his prime to his... "still good but not prime" years.

edit: you posted the newest table while I was typing this. that's exactly what I was looking for... thanks.

Rebuilt · Sep 17, 2015

How many different ways does one need to set up the parameters of the data to 'frame' Gretzky as less than the best of all time?

What is the point? You showed us there are 5000 ways to manipulate data if you set up the parameters the way you want?

We have known this ever since statistics were invented.

The Panther · Sep 17, 2015

The rate of decline from peaks is interesting, thanks. If you stretched the data beyond 10 years, Gretzky's level would decline more, but then would 90% of players'. It's only some outliers who managed to maintain a peak-level of production more than about 10 seasons.

Again, the standards of "decline from peak" seem a little unfair when applied to a Gretzky-type. Since he has the #1 and #2 goal-scoring seasons ever, and most of the top-12 assist seasons ever, his decline is obviously going to be big. But even after a huge decline, he's still on top. To use the most extreme example, his 163 assists in 1985-86. Let's say, for example, he dropped 48 assists to 115. That means he dropped nearly 30% from 163 assists to 115 assists. Yet his 115 assists would still be the most by any player ever (except for himself).

So, there's a difference between a big drop to becoming average, and a big drop to still being elite. 1982 Gretzky scores 92 goals, and 1987 Gretzky scores 62. That's an enormous drop. But 1987 Gretzky is still #1 in the NHL in goals!

seventieslord · Sep 17, 2015

Signed said:
How many different ways does one need to set up the parameters of the data to 'frame' Gretzky as less than the best of all time?

What is the point? You showed us there are 5000 ways to manipulate data if you set up the parameters the way you want?

We have known this ever since statistics were invented.

What makes you think that this has any agenda to frame Gretzky in any particular way?

johan f · Sep 18, 2015

if now goalies sucked and since many think gretz had help by them and was not that great as other thinks...I wonder this: How come nobody else scored 90 goals a season?

I am sick and tired of the downplaying of Gretz.

Pominville Knows · Sep 18, 2015

johan f said:
if now goalies sucked and since many think gretz had help by them and was not that great as other thinks...I wonder this: How come nobody else scored 90 goals a season?

I am sick and tired of the downplaying of Gretz.

If by downplaying you mean "Cant just go by the numbers", you might be correct in that it occurs. However, show me one individual that has not called him the greatest playmaker of all time, and more than a handful that says he without a doubt is not the greatest offensive player of all time. Even i might say that his playmaking probably makes him the best offensively ever.

shazariahl · Sep 18, 2015

bobholly39 said:
But then he declined considerably as a goal scorer. Did he decline to become one of the worst scorers in the league? One who might only score 15-20 goals a year? Well - no. He IS Wayne Gretzky after all. But scoring 40 and 50 (or less) goals in a year is a huge decline for him, because he fell from so high.

You have a very good point. The only thing I wanted to point out though, is that for some of those years, it's hard to complain that Gretzky was "worse" even though his goal scoring was down. Obviously later in his career, of course, but it's hard to criticize the guy for only scoring 52 goals when he also puts up 163 assists in the same year. When we're only looking at the goal scoring, that looks like it's part of a decline where Gretzky's play is degrading from his previous years. But that's because the focus on goal scoring is only looking at half the equation.

Even some of his years with the Kings, when he is only in the 40 range, he's still putting up 120 assists, 114 another year, etc. So while I agree that he clearly falls off as a goal scorer, I sometimes think too much is being made of his "decline", given that we're still talking about the guy who holds the record for most 40+ goal seasons, is tied for most 50+, has the most 60+, 70+, 80+, and only 90+ goal season ever, reached 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, and 800 goals in fewer games than any other player, etc.

BTW, this post isn't really directed specifically at you, because I know you aren't one of those trying to denigrate Gretzky's career, I just quoted you because you were kind of on the subject, and I wanted to give my POV on the topic.

Sentinel · Sep 18, 2015

On a different topic... Why am I not seeing Pavel Bure in any of these tables?

Jacob · Sep 18, 2015

I'm too stupid to figure this out definitively but at a quick glance it appears as though his goal-to-assist ratio didn't remain all that constant throughout his career, and his goal totals dipped more than his assist totals later on. But that's probably just a natural thing that happens to all superstars as they face tighter checking and learn to be the best passers and playmakers they can be, as hard as it may be to imagine that Gretzky in the 80s still had something he could still improve upon.

Also probably a combination of tighter checking, less talent around him and the game itself changing.

bobholly39 · Sep 18, 2015

shazariahl said:
You have a very good point. The only thing I wanted to point out though, is that for some of those years, it's hard to complain that Gretzky was "worse" even though his goal scoring was down. Obviously later in his career, of course, but it's hard to criticize the guy for only scoring 52 goals when he also puts up 163 assists in the same year. When we're only looking at the goal scoring, that looks like it's part of a decline where Gretzky's play is degrading from his previous years. But that's because the focus on goal scoring is only looking at half the equation.

Even some of his years with the Kings, when he is only in the 40 range, he's still putting up 120 assists, 114 another year, etc. So while I agree that he clearly falls off as a goal scorer, I sometimes think too much is being made of his "decline", given that we're still talking about the guy who holds the record for most 40+ goal seasons, is tied for most 50+, has the most 60+, 70+, 80+, and only 90+ goal season ever, reached 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, and 800 goals in fewer games than any other player, etc.

BTW, this post isn't really directed specifically at you, because I know you aren't one of those trying to denigrate Gretzky's career, I just quoted you because you were kind of on the subject, and I wanted to give my POV on the topic.

Whenever I talk about Gretzky's "decline" - my thoughts are usually that he scored less because he became less good at scoring.

And I hate when others counter by saying "nope - he was still as good, but he chose to score less so he could pass more". That's the argument that bugs me the most.

The truth is likely that - Gretzky did indeed slow down at being able to score goals. Why? I dunno. Age, speed, goalies/defense playing him better, goalies getting better...can be many reasons, but the fact is he did become less effective at it. I can't imagine he'd have been able to still score 92 goals or more by the late 80s.

So what did he do? Well - he used his natural ability as a godly playmaker to compensate, and still managed to create as much offense but through assists.

But to claim he didn't decline, but he just "chose to score less" i believe is over the top.

bobholly39 · Sep 18, 2015

Hockey Outsider said:
Here's another way of looking at the data. Let's disregard age entirely and look at the average number of goals scored during the players' top five goal-scoring years, and then compare it to their 6th through 10th best seasons.

For example, Bryan Trottier had seasons of 50, 47, 46, 42, 40, 37, 34, 32, 31 and 30 goals. Thus his production dropped from 45.0 goals per season in his best half decade to 32.8 goals per season in his next best half decade - a drop of 27%.

Player|Best five|Next five|Decrease
Alexander Mogilny | 49.2 | 28.2 | -42.7%
Guy Lafleur | 55.4 | 32.8 | -40.8%
Brett Hull | 67.8 | 40.4 | -40.4%
Bernie Nicholls | 46.4 | 28 | -39.7%
Jari Kurri | 58 | 36.8 | -36.6%
Phil Esposito | 65.2 | 41.4 | -36.5%
Jeremy Roenick | 44.8 | 28.8 | -35.7%
Teemu Selanne | 54.8 | 35.4 | -35.4%
Michel Goulet | 54 | 35 | -35.2%
Steve Yzerman | 57.2 | 37.2 | -35%
Wayne Gretkzy | 77 | 50.6 | -34.3%
Mario Lemieux | 69.4 | 46 | -33.7%
Glenn Anderson | 47.2 | 32.2 | -31.8%
Peter Bondra | 46.8 | 32 | -31.6%
Jaromir Jagr | 51.8 | 35.8 | -30.9%
Mark Recchi | 42 | 29.2 | -30.5%
Joe Nieuwendyk | 46.2 | 32.2 | -30.3%
Joe Sakic | 48.4 | 33.8 | -30.2%
Pat Lafontaine | 49 | 34.4 | -29.8%
Peter Stastny | 45.2 | 31.8 | -29.6%
Dave Andreychuk | 45.2 | 32.2 | -28.8%
Alexander Ovechkin | 55.4 | 39.6 | -28.5%
Lanny McDonald | 48.4 | 34.6 | -28.5%
Pierre Turgeon | 42.8 | 30.6 | -28.5%
Theo Fleury | 42.2 | 30.4 | -28%
Pat Verbeek | 42.6 | 30.8 | -27.7%
Bryan Trottier | 45 | 32.8 | -27.1%
Brendan Shanahan | 47 | 34.4 | -26.8%
Denis Savard | 41.2 | 30.2 | -26.7%
Brian Bellows | 42.2 | 31 | -26.5%
Keith Tkachuk | 44.2 | 32.6 | -26.2%
Marian Hossa | 40.6 | 30.2 | -25.6%
Rod Brind'Amour | 34.4 | 25.8 | -25%
Jarome Iginla | 45 | 33.8 | -24.9%
Doug Gilmour | 33.8 | 25.4 | -24.9%
Patrick Marleau | 37.2 | 28.6 | -23.1%
Mike Bossy | 64.4 | 50.2 | -22%
Dale Hawerchuk | 47 | 36.8 | -21.7%
Sergei Fedorov | 39.4 | 31 | -21.3%
Gilbert Perreault | 40.6 | 32 | -21.2%
Mark Messier | 45.4 | 36 | -20.7%
Marcel Dionne | 55.8 | 44.6 | -20.1%
Luc Robitaille | 51.8 | 41.8 | -19.3%
Mats Sundin | 39.8 | 32.4 | -18.6%
Dino Ciccarelli | 47.2 | 39 | -17.4%
Joe Mullen | 45 | 37.4 | -16.9%
Mike Modano | 38.6 | 32.4 | -16.1%
Darry Sittler | 42.4 | 36 | -15.1%
Mike Gartner | 48 | 40.8 | -15%
Ron Francis | 29.8 | 26.2 | -12.1%

One thing that immediately jumps out - Gretzky has the highest average, both for his best five years, and then also for the next five years after that. I haven't calculated data after the ten year mark (largely because of players like Ovechkin and Bossy who didn't play more than ten years). Yes, Gretzky's goal-scoring dropped after that point, but his 6th-to-10th best seasons are still better than the corresponding seasons from any other player in the past 47 years.

Overall Gretzky's production falls 34%, which is a bit higher than the 28% average for the group. But I don't think a big drop is necessarily a bad thing. Some of the players with the smallest percentage drops were really compilers rather than dominant goal-scorers (four of the bottom seven players were Francis, Gartner, Ciccarelli and Sundin).

If we drop the bottom half of the list (as those with more dominant, pronounced peaks have lower to fall than compilers) the average drop for the players in the top half of the list is 31% - just barely less than Gretzky's decrease. Once again Gretzky is very much in line with this distinguished peer group.

I just don't see much validity to the "Gretzky was an overrated goal-scorer" argument. He probably had the best five-year goal-scoring peak in NHL history. The drop that he had from the incredibly high peak is roughly in line with his peer group, and in years six through ten he's still ahead of everyone else. As we saw early, he consistently performed average to above average in "milestone" forty and fifty goal seasons, both in terms of how late they came in his career, and the span of goal-scoring dominance. Yes, he was even better as playmaker, but that doesn't make him overrated as a goal-scorer.

So just to point out - I personally have never argued that Gretzky is overrated as a goal scorer, and I agree with you that his goal scoring peak is probably the best ever. But I will argue that he seems to have declined as a goal scorer much more than the other greats. And not necessarily the other 50 players you listed - Gretzky being Gretzky, he still manages to look good here. But if you only compare Gretzky's decline specifically to who you consider to be the top 3-5 goal scorers of all time? I think Gretzky's numbers take a dive.

1. Lemieux. Lemieux is a bit tricky, as always, with health and injuries. Your numbers seem mostly to concentrate on 40 and 50 goal seasons - something Lemieux didn't reach often late in his career due to how little he played. Which is typical of Lemieux some people will argue i'm sure - but Lemieux was still scoring goals at a much larger *pace* than Gretzky late in his career.

2. Ovechkin. Too soon to tell. I have Ovy as a top 5-7 goal scorer of all time, maybe even as high as top 3. He's such a machine lately that i have trouble seeing him decline quickly, but of course we'll only know in a few years.

3. Bobby Hull. No idea. I could do a bit of comparative work with Hull's scoring, but i'm definitely less familiar with his era so I may not adjust totals as well. But I'd be curious to see how we rank him as a goal scorer late in his career compared to #99.

4. Bossy. He may be the most consistent top end goal scorer of all time, but of course he never played passed 30, so who knows. There's no question Gretzky's peak years destroyed his, but looking at Bossy's consistency i can only speculate he may have maintained it a bit better than #99. Again, it is just speculation.

5. Maurice Richard. Like Bobby Hull, i am a bit less familiar with that era.

6. Brett Hull. Brett Hull actually has a very comparable career pattern as a goal-scorer to Gretzky I believe. Started out with some crazy high numbers, and then settled in at a much lower - yet still impressive - rate of 30 and 40 goals per year. So I would say Brett Hull declined as a goal scorer a lot with age too - either that, or his numbers were simply highly inflated in 90 and 91, maybe thanks to Oates.

Can't think of anyone else off-hand.

But it would be interesting to compare Gretzky's decline as a goal scorer to some of these other names specifically that i mentioned, to truly try to understand how he compares. And most of those names are either not in your study, or in Lemieux's case his lack of full seasons late in his career hurt his "total goals per season" numbers, even though his pace is great.

BraveCanadian · Sep 19, 2015

seventieslord said:
Because yeah, percentage-wise it does appear he declined more than most others in this class of players, from his prime to his... "still good but not prime" years.

When you are that far down the curve it takes a lot less of a slow down to drop your numbers significantly.

Gretzky had a lot farther to fall.

Dennis Bonvie · Sep 19, 2015

Hockey Outsider said:
Age during final fifty goal season

Player|Age
Jaromir Jagr | 33
Phil Esposito | 32
Joe Mullen | 31
Joe Sakic | 31
Marcel Dionne | 31
Mario Lemieux | 31
Dave Andreychuk | 30
Jarome Iginla | 30
Alexander Ovechkin | 29
Brett Hull | 29
Lanny McDonald | 29
Mike Bossy | 29
Peter Bondra | 29
Guy Lafleur | 28
Wayne Gretkzy | 28
Bernie Nicholls | 27
Pat Lafontaine | 27
Steve Yzerman | 27
Teemu Selanne | 27
Alexander Mogilny | 26
Dino Ciccarelli | 26
Jari Kurri | 26
Luc Robitaille | 26
Brendan Shanahan | 25
Brian Bellows | 25
Bryan Trottier | 25
Glenn Anderson | 25
Michel Goulet | 25
Mike Gartner | 25
Keith Tkachuk | 24
Mark Recchi | 24
Sergei Fedorov | 24
Jeremy Roenick | 23
Mike Modano | 23
Pierre Turgeon | 23
Joe Nieuwendyk | 22
Theo Fleury | 22
Dale Hawerchuk | 21
Mark Messier | 21

Of the fifty players in my sample, eleven never scored fifty goals in a season (Sittler, Savard, Gilmour, Perreault, Hossa, Sundin, Verbeek, Marleau, Stastny, Brind'Amour, Francis).

Gretzky scored his last fifty goal season at age 28. Of the players who scored 50 at least once, the average age during their final 50+ goal season was 26.6. Gretzky actually scored his final 50 goal season a bit later than the average for his peer group.

Only thirteen players scored 50 goals after age 28, and only eight of them scored 50 goals after age 30. Surprisingly, more than half of these players scored their last 50 goal season no later than age 26.

At this risk of stating the obvious, goal-scorers tend to peak at a young age. It`s rare for them to score 50+ goals into their late 20s or beyond. In this sense, Gretzky`s performance is very much in line with his peer group.

The problem is, offensively, Gretzky doesn't really have a peer group. He stands alone. Anything that shows him being in line with other players would have to be perceived as a negative.

Sens Rule · Sep 19, 2015

I think Gretzky declined from his peak more then any other player ever that was still good at the end.

I think he declined more as a goal scorer too, after 1994 or so. Being the big game player he was he still came through with goals in the playoffs though.

I think Gretzky's physical skills started declining in about 86. More after 88. More after 1991 and the Suter hit.

I think Gretzky was the most consistent offensive player over a long period ever from 81-88. He varied little in production game to game in that time.

I think by the time he was on the Rangers he was a charicature of himself on the Oilers. He had massively declined. In every way. Especially his shot and every physical aspect of his body, still could see the ice the same, but unable to take advantage of it to anywhere near the way he did on the Oilers or before 91 or even before 94. Despite this he led the league in assists, was top 3 or 4 in points and over a second half outscored those ahead of him.

I think Gretzky got more out of his abilities then any other player ever. Whatever he gave was absolutely all he had to give.

I think the 92/93 playoffs, the series vs the Leafs. I think Gretzky says that was his greatest game in game 7 or his greatest series or playoff... Is because he already had really declined a ton. He was not nearly as good as he was in the 80's. He was slower, his body could not do what his brain wanted it to do anymore, a lot of the time. Despite that, despite missing half the season and actually not being near the best in the regular season, despite knowing his greatness was waning. He willed himself and his team to the finals. Those 3 goals in game 7 may seem like Gretzky being Gretzky. But he didn't score off defenceman from behind the net regularly, it was still a freak play. A trick play. Gretzky was gutting down and throwing knuckleballs after being Nolan Ryan. He had lost a lot of his aresenal and what was left was a massive will and the wilely veteran savvy to find any possible weakness and exploit it. He couldn't really just blow a short slapper by guys anymore with any regularity. Gretzky knew all of this. It is why that performance resonates because he knew it was maybe the last time he could still get enough of his junk stuff together to still be the Gretzky that he once was.

I think Mario was definitely a better goal scorer them Gretzky after Gretzky turned about 24 or 25. So what? before that... Gretzky had the numbers and results. Peak Gretzky is still as good or maybe better then peak Mario at goal scoring.

The thing with Gretzky is he got literally everything he had to give on the ice. He never gave less, took games off, retired, he went from having Pedro Martinez stuff, to the same stuff with less speed like Maddux to later in his career being Phil Niekro or Gaylord Perry at scoring goals. He might not blow it past them, but he would find a way to score or manufacture a goal regardless.

Again vs Mario... Who scored more goals after 30? 99. Mario might do better per game or in a shootout but talent is only useful if actually used, and Gretzky kept using his to find ways to score and manufacture goals.

I think realizing how dramatically Gretzky lost so much of his physical talent later in his career, but continued to play full seasons and still have a lot of great success is a big part of his legacy.

Gretzky's decline in goal-scoring

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