Grading 2024 Free Agency

[Peter Tosh]

A

Kane, Talbot and Tarasenko will contribute without hurting the team long term. Losing Sprong, Ghost and Perron can be managed.

We still need G and D, but free agency 2024 wasn’t the place to solve those issues.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think they're destined for a top 5 pick without any extra help/moves.

Top 5 pick? I wish, and I say that as someone who is vehemently anti-tank. I'm going to guess a 7 to 10 draft pick. Likely not good enough for a true franchise player unless that pick overachieves.

My expectation for this roster is 240-250 GF and 270-280 GA. They did nothing to improve overall team possession metrics on the roster, reduced overall depth scoring by losing Fabbri, Ghost and Sprong, and added a plug like Motte who simply does not touch the puck when he's on the ice.

I think the teams worse than Detroit in the east are Montreal, Columbus and possibly Philly, though their coach has that team playing structured, disciplined hockey. Maybe Ottawa depending on the team defense/goaltending situation.
In the west I think San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago and Calgary are worse. Maybe Seattle but only because of goaltending.

This was easily avoidable if Yzerman was willing to "perform surgery" on the roster, as he put it.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

It’s insane to think they’re top 5 pick bound. They simply have too much talent in their core players now to tank and be near the top of the draft barring something material and unforeseen like Larkin going out all year or something.

At worst, they stayed level with last year

Full year of Kane + Tarasenko in for Perron + one more year for Raymond will make up for losing the corpse of Fabbri and not signing Sprong.

Walman was stapled to the bench, so he’s not actually an on-ice loss. Gustafsson = ghost. A full year of Edvinsson and more Johansson instead of more Holl can only be a good thing.

The Wings are a bubble playoff team; not a bubble top 3 lottery team

 

[Frk It]

At worst, they stayed level with last year

I think that’s pretty damn ambitious to say or think right now. We were overachieving pretty hard last year from a goals for perspective.

Full year of Kane + Tarasenko in for Perron + one more year for Raymond will make up for losing the corpse of Fabbri and not signing Sprong.

As if there is no shot Kane and/or Tarasenko get injured at their age with the amount of mileage they have on them.

Walman was stapled to the bench, so he’s not actually an on-ice loss. Gustafsson = ghost. A full year of Edvinsson and more Johansson instead of more Holl can only be a good thing.

The Wings are a bubble playoff team; not a bubble top 3 lottery team

He was bad at the very end of the year. He was fine for decent stretches of the year. Who are you putting next to Seider to where we are coming out better? Only answer for me is Edvinsson, which then I think your 2nd and 3rd pairing are taking a hit.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

It’s insane to think they’re top 5 pick bound. They simply have too much talent in their core players now to tank and be near the top of the draft barring something material and unforeseen like Larkin going out all year or something.

At worst, they stayed level with last year

Full year of Kane + Tarasenko in for Perron + one more year for Raymond will make up for losing the corpse of Fabbri and not signing Sprong.

Walman was stapled to the bench, so he’s not actually an on-ice loss. Gustafsson = ghost. A full year of Edvinsson and more Johansson instead of more Holl can only be a good thing.

The Wings are a bubble playoff team; not a bubble top 3 lottery team

At worst? The wings didn't get better. They got worse and several other teams got better.

They're running it back with essentially the same defense corps as last season, which was bottom 5 in the league outside of Seider. Maybe Edvinsson helps turn it into a bottom 8 D corps?

Talbot looked serviceable behind a very defensive LA Kings squad, but Detroit's team defense is nowhere near that level. Lyon was mediocre to bad to finish the season after being run too hard. Husso was realbad to 2019-2020 Jim Howard level bad.

Detroit scored the 9th most goals in the NHL last year which was impressive, with 13 players scoring 10 or more goals and 9 with 40+ points. That offense dried up the final 2 months of the season. With the roster changes I'm expecting their offense to drop by 25-ish goals.

Ghost and Walman scored 22 goals between them and we added Gustafsson who had 6 last year, and Edvinsson who is not a goalscoring defender, so let's say between the two of them they make up 10-12 of those goals from defense.

Fabbri, Sprong and Perron combined for 53. A healthy Tarasenko should be good for 25. If Berggren sees top 9 icetime he should be good for 15, but that is a big if with Fester. Then there's our new favorite acquisition, Motte and his 6 goals...

So unless Kane scores at the same pace or better than he did last season, which I sincerely doubt he will, and either Raymond becomes a 40+ goal superstar and/or DeBrincat gets back to his 40 goal days, this team will put the puck in the net less while giving up probably the same amount of goals or more.

 

[raymond23]

C

Pros
- Biggest pro by far is we keep our cap flexibility moving forward. This was a 2016-level free agency... ridiculous contracts handed out
- Kane and Tarasenko are both great signings

Cons
- Walman trade (the post-trade narrative that he sucked is interesting)
- Gustavsson over Ghost has me worried (hoping to be proven wrong)
- D and G groups both are lacking

What's most puzzling to me is how much we are relying on the young players to have an impact. Johansson, for instance, has never seen a minute of NHL time and now all of the sudden he's a make or break piece for us this year. Same goes for Berggren. Would have been nice to know what we have in these kids before they go waiver exempt... the roster management the past 12 months has been poor in that respect. We've sent out a 2nd and 4th to move salary and it still feels like Steve has his hands tied with the roster he put together, especially on defense. Thankfully no d contract goes beyond 2 years (besides Mo's upcoming extension)

I don't believe Stevie one bit when he says he's happy with our d group so I'm hoping and expecting some type of trade

 

[Shaman464]

I don't put much stock into free agency because in the grand scheme of it, players are the ones in demand and they hold the cards. I'm not interested in handcuffing my team by signing Matt Roy to the contract he got if it means we have trouble re-signing one of our top draft picks. We are in a weird transition spot, but we aren't in a spot to be risking doing that imo

Who was the last UFA to make a legitimate, big time impact for their team? Pietrangelo is the only one I can think of (I'm omitting Tavares because Leafs). That type of player I would be happy paying + giving term to (at the time Vegas did with him). The rest of the players are just roster filler in the upper/middle part of the lineup for the most part. That's when you end up signing Copp or Chiarot to the contracts they got and get stuck with them because they're not Guentzels or Pietrangelos

Tarasenko is a nice surprise add and I think he will be valuable to this team in an intangibles way when the kids are coming up this year and next for full time roster spots. He spent time in two Stanley Cup wins playing in entirely different roles and spots in the lineup

The important pieces we're needing come by the draft and via trade

Trocheck makes as much money as Copp and scored at about the same pace as Larkin. That's nothing to sneeze at.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

Trocheck makes as much money as Copp and scored at about the same pace as Larkin. That's nothing to sneeze at.

True, but at that time the Rangers had been well-established as contenders and, just like Vegas and Pietrangelo, was a much sexier place to sign than a lowly team like Detroit (who finished with 74 points before Trocheck hit FA)

 

[tabness]

at least Grand Rapids got an A lol

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

At worst? The wings didn't get better. They got worse and several other teams got better.

They're running it back with essentially the same defense corps as last season, which was bottom 5 in the league outside of Seider. Maybe Edvinsson helps turn it into a bottom 8 D corps?

Talbot looked serviceable behind a very defensive LA Kings squad, but Detroit's team defense is nowhere near that level. Lyon was mediocre to bad to finish the season after being run too hard. Husso was realbad to 2019-2020 Jim Howard level bad.

Detroit scored the 9th most goals in the NHL last year which was impressive, with 13 players scoring 10 or more goals and 9 with 40+ points. That offense dried up the final 2 months of the season. With the roster changes I'm expecting their offense to drop by 25-ish goals.

Ghost and Walman scored 22 goals between them and we added Gustafsson who had 6 last year, and Edvinsson who is not a goalscoring defender, so let's say between the two of them they make up 10-12 of those goals from defense.

Fabbri, Sprong and Perron combined for 53. A healthy Tarasenko should be good for 25. If Berggren sees top 9 icetime he should be good for 15, but that is a big if with Fester. Then there's our new favorite acquisition, Motte and his 6 goals...

So unless Kane scores at the same pace or better than he did last season, which I sincerely doubt he will, and either Raymond becomes a 40+ goal superstar and/or DeBrincat gets back to his 40 goal days, this team will put the puck in the net less while giving up probably the same amount of goals or more.

So shedding our worst two defensive forwards (Sprong and Fabbri) and arguably our worst two defenders in the d-zone down the stretch (Walman and Ghost) leads to the same amount of goals?

Yzerman followed his own post-season presser here. Motte doesn't score a ton, but he has good five on five numbers and excellent PK numbers. He plays more reliable defense.

I agree the offense is likely to go down, though Raymond could step forward to 90+ point player he teases at being. Seider's offense should tick up with somewhat different deployment and without babysitting Walman for large stretches. He is putting it on young scoring players to take that step while playing better defense. You now have Kane as really your only big negative up front defensively. I know we are all going to hate the third pairing on the right side defensively. You hope AlJo can grab a spot and at least put one of Holl and Petry in the press box. He does have a history of partnering with Edvinsson though I wouldn't be surprised if Fester won't do that. The Trouba trade is really the bummer to me here as you could see what he was getting ready to do there.

I think it is on one of Rasmussen or Veleno if not both to become more offensive. You could probably deploy a line of Fischer-Copp-Motte against a lot of #1 lines where they actually survive given what those guys do defensively.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

So shedding our worst two defensive forwards (Sprong and Fabbri) and arguably our worst two defenders in the d-zone down the stretch (Walman and Ghost) leads to the same amount of goals?

Yzerman followed his own post-season presser here. Motte doesn't score a ton, but he has good five on five numbers and excellent PK numbers. He plays more reliable defense.

I agree the offense is likely to go down, though Raymond could step forward to 90+ point player he teases at being. Seider's offense should tick up with somewhat different deployment and without babysitting Walman for large stretches. He is putting it on young scoring players to take that step while playing better defense. You now have Kane as really your only big negative up front defensively. I know we are all going to hate the third pairing on the right side defensively. You hope AlJo can grab a spot and at least put one of Holl and Petry in the press box. He does have a history of partnering with Edvinsson though I wouldn't be surprised if Fester won't do that. The Trouba trade is really the bummer to me here as you could see what he was getting ready to do there.

I think it is on one of Rasmussen or Veleno if not both to become more offensive. You could probably deploy a line of Fischer-Copp-Motte against a lot of #1 lines where they actually survive given what those guys do defensively.

The offense went down but we didn't get significantly better on defense. There's a reason Gustafsson has bounced around so often, and it's because he's weak defensively. About on par as Ghost or maybe worse while providing even less offensively. Because he's an offensive specialist I think that Lalonde will deploy him on PP1 instead of Seider, just like Ghost was on PP1 last season.

If we start the season with Husso and Talbot (which is what I expect) then yeah, the goals against are going to be crap. And we're also expecting that Seider will be babysitting Chiarot instead of Maatta or Johansson because that's just the way Lalonde works.

Edvinsson over Walman or Ghost is potentially a net gain, and I think Johansson is too. However I'm again going to point to coaching as what prevents them from making a real impact on the ice by limiting their icetime.

As for Motte-Copp-Fischer, that sounds awful to me. Copp has become slow as molasses. Fischer has no hands, and Motte is a career 10-12 minute a night guy that chases the puck. I'm expecting that line to get absolutely caved at 5 on 5. The line of Rasmussen - Copp - Fischer got hot last season because Rasmussen was putting in strong work in in the defensive zone and in the neutral zone to get the puck up ice and then he and Fischer would cycle it down low. Copp didn't do anything for them except win his draws. He's about as useless as can be. And if you put Motte with anyone else it's like putting Czarnik on their wing because he's that bad offensively.

So yeah, I think the Wings offense will drop 7 to 10% due to no longer having a real PP2 that can score unless we get some rookies stealing spots. And I think our goals against will be about the same or worse unless our kids are allowed to shine because we didn't improve the team's possession metrics with any of our new signings.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

The offense went down but we didn't get significantly better on defense. There's a reason Gustafsson has bounced around so often, and it's because he's weak defensively. About on par as Ghost or maybe worse while providing even less offensively. Because he's an offensive specialist I think that Lalonde will deploy him on PP1 instead of Seider, just like Ghost was on PP1 last season.

If we start the season with Husso and Talbot (which is what I expect) then yeah, the goals against are going to be crap. And we're also expecting that Seider will be babysitting Chiarot instead of Maatta or Johansson because that's just the way Lalonde works.

Edvinsson over Walman or Ghost is potentially a net gain, and I think Johansson is too. However I'm again going to point to coaching as what prevents them from making a real impact on the ice by limiting their icetime.

As for Motte-Copp-Fischer, that sounds awful to me. Copp has become slow as molasses. Fischer has no hands, and Motte is a career 10-12 minute a night guy that chases the puck. I'm expecting that line to get absolutely caved at 5 on 5. The line of Rasmussen - Copp - Fischer got hot last season because Rasmussen was putting in strong work in in the defensive zone and in the neutral zone to get the puck up ice and then he and Fischer would cycle it down low. Copp didn't do anything for them except win his draws. He's about as useless as can be. And if you put Motte with anyone else it's like putting Czarnik on their wing because he's that bad offensively.

So yeah, I think the Wings offense will drop 7 to 10% due to no longer having a real PP2 that can score unless we get some rookies stealing spots. And I think our goals against will be about the same or worse unless our kids are allowed to shine because we didn't improve the team's possession metrics with any of our new signings.

I also actually expect Danielson to make the team and score 40 points in terms of one of the ones I didn’t say.

Injuries will likely play a role in how this shuffles line wise. I am not sure they shouldn’t keep getting better, their young guys should be taking steps if we aren’t blowing this thing back up. Yzerman seems committed to this direction.

 

[Scottgaf1]

I give it a B. Not the big splash people hoped for, but after seeing the term given to old guys, I'm a bit relieved.

I think Yzerman learned his lesson. He's been guilty of giving too much term to average guys. (Copp, Holl, Chariot, Husso)

I think it was amazing to get Kane back on a one year deal. I also liked the clearing of some cap to sign the

big two soon. If the end result of this is Seider and Raymond locked up long term, it goes to an A-.

Also seeing some youth this year is encouraging. Can't afford to not let them gain pro experience.

 

[DoMakc]

I don't think Red Wings got worse compared to last season, i think missed an opportunity to improve on defensive side. But overall I think they should be more balanced forward-wise and less vulnerable defensively. Edvinsson is now up and Johansson might also get an opportunity. I liked Motte signing which means they have a 4th line which at least has purpose and does not need to be hidden 5-on-5. Not having Sprong and Fabbri is also an advantage, only Berggren is now weak defensively in the bottom six. Maybe even there is a possibility to spread offense across three lines a have something like, in order to lower impact bad defensive players like Tarasenko and Kane.

Cat-Larkin-Tarasenko
Rasmussen-Compher-Kane
Berggren-Copp-Raymond
Motte-Veleno-Fischer

I think offense wise they are better now then last year. Having 32/33-yea-old Tarasenko instread of 36-year-old Perron, full year of Kane, improved version of Raymond. I would also argue that Berggren can be improvement of Fabbri for sure but also over Sprong.

I still think that signing somebody like Roy instead of Gustafsson would help significantly - currently ride side of defense beyond Seider is a mess. But i think we shouldn't mix up missed opportunity with lack of improvement, having young players also presents further chance to improve.

 

[14ari13]

Generous D

 

[Run the Jewels]

Max Bultman gave his feebdack on the moves to date.

 

[dalem177]

@Bench How blue can I go around here? PG? PG-13? R?

 

[Bench]

@Bench How blue can I go around here? PG? PG-13? R?

HBO but prestige HBO.

 

[dalem177]

HBO but prestige HBO.

Hmm. I dk what that means but I will accept arbitration.

[redacted - try again]

 

[Winger98]

I think that’s pretty damn ambitious to say or think right now. We were overachieving pretty hard last year from a goals for perspective.

I guess the question is how much everyone sees last year as a statistical outlier. If you think last season should have been an 80 point season, and this season they grab 85 but with less "luck" then did they improve?

Maybe when trying to figure out how successful of a season we have we might need to look at something other than points or playoff spots. It gets really hard to quantify that, though.

 

[steafo]

I give it a C+ : High marks for trusting the injection of youth and staying away from high term/high cost contracts that don't fit the window. Lower marks for not really solving the defense/center issue but they're kind of tied to the Long term/High cost FA's. Trust the process I guess.

I would have liked landing a big fish but not at the term and cost that was going out. I still think I would have liked a way to make Roy fit but it is what it is. I think the goals we "lost" will be made up by the Tarasenko signing, a full year of Kane, and Berggren can produce at 5 on 5 the way Perron did at least.

Defense...I'm not sure how they will line up but I'm high on Edvinsson so defensively I think they've upgraded internally despite walking away from Ghost and Walman. I'm also still scratching my head at the Walman trade but whatever his production overall is easily replaced. Ghost's production will be missed and his jumping keep will forever be etched in my mind.

Goaltending: I hope they can somehow move Husso either via buyout or trade...Talbot is an upgrade and with him and Lyon able to share the net you hope they both stay healthy and kind of split the load so-to-speak. Not sure why we signed 3005u3240948 other goalies after that but some are destined to GR which is fine. I hope Campbell isn't the first call up before Cossa when needed I'd really like to see the kid kick this year if even only for a few games

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

I guess the question is how much everyone sees last year as a statistical outlier. If you think last season should have been an 80 point season, and this season they grab 85 but with less "luck" then did they improve?

Maybe when trying to figure out how successful of a season we have we might need to look at something other than points or playoff spots. It gets really hard to quantify that, though.

It does get hard to quantify, as points and overall standing define teams as a rule of thumb.

Another measure I like to use is a seasonal goal differential, as a rule of thumb, a negative goals for versus goals allowed reflects a non-playoff team more often than not. Islanders and Caps last year were exceptions, but if you have a large positive value, (say larger than 20 at the end of a season) then usually you are a good team and into the playoffs.

My measure of success this year will be based on the overall team play with a healthy introduction of youth. I expect that last years heroics and scoring fest equate more to Scotty's first year where he let the team play it their way, then the next year they did it his way. The players brought in this FA period certainly suggest to me that SY is taking that approach.

I do expect to see fewer goals scored this year (but certainly not 75 less), the team did jettison many of the main defensive black holes (the dreaded +/- stat negative players) and this should drastically decrease the goals against by improving team defense (that and hopefully out 8 goalies, they can keep a few healthy).

The kids coming aboard should have the defensive mindset from their GR days but will need some time to refine it for the NHL, but I will judge the team at the end of the year on the GF/GA differential.

If they can improve upon last years +2, say to +12, then they are going in the right direction, regardless of standings or how many goals they score, and open the door for a trickle in of youth each year going forward.

Sorry for the windy rant, but if the wings end 2024/25 with a plus 12 GF/GA delta, target a GF=240 and a GA=228 with 96 points sound as a measure of success? (I do suspect that this coming season, it may take 98 or 100 points to snag the last wildcard spot)

If the wings over achieve and can have RW>losses, then they are likely to in the playoffs (show they can protect a lead if they have one).

Oh, for a FA score, I give SY a B to B-

 

[rangersblues]

For those saying Stevie should have landed a big fish, I'm curious who and at what price. Other than Guentzel the others are old and/or overpaid with too long term. We're finally out of the mess Holland left. We already signed too many marginal FAs in the past imo.

I like having some cap flexibility so if a "big fish" opens up via trade we have the room to land him. In the meantime it's time for the kids to show what they have.

 

[13to40]

For those saying Stevie should have landed a big fish, I'm curious who and at what price. Other than Guentzel the others are old and/or overpaid with too long term. We're finally out of the mess Holland left. We already signed too many marginal FAs in the past imo.

I like having some cap flexibility so if a "big fish" opens up via trade we have the room to land him. In the meantime it's time for the kids to show what they have.

Most people just don’t seem to understand how the salary cap works, or they don’t remember signings like Justin Abdelkader or Frans Nielsen.

We are finally approaching the tip of the iceberg of our younger prospects becoming ready and what they will bring to the team.

The signings made are all taken into consideration of who’s to be brought up from the minor leagues this year and next.

We also have our 2 young studs who are RFA, the allocated dollars put aside for them is for both either long term or short term options.

Raymond and Seider hold a higher importance than signing Tyler Toffoli for 6M a year….

 

[norrisnick]

No one is saying anything about old overpriced forwards. A legitimate top 4 D would have been nice. And I'm going to slap the first person that mentions Zadorov or Montour as of those atrocities aren't even remotely the extent of what was out there.