Grade the Oilers FAF

[oobga]

Keep Jackson involved in player negotiations is a big thing we learned. A marks for sure.

Still need a crafty GM to fix the D. Likely going to take some trades. Also need to get under the cap. The fun part is over.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

I liked Haas, lol.

never forget

 

[unicornBLOOD]

The defense and goaltending is good enough to get us into playoffs with another 100+ pt season.
We can make an add or two at the trade deadline and just go with what we have.

Getting under the cap is the next big challenge.

I really feel our top 4 D, when healthy has HUGE potential. They have pedigree, I know draft position doesn't mean everything, but it does show that, at least in one point in time, they were fairly highly regarded.

Nurse (7th overall)
Broberg (8th overall)
Bouchard (10th overall)

add in Ekholm, who is the perfect #2 Dman.

I could see this top 4 being great. I have to believe that Nurse was hurt, because he did not look good in the playoffs, he has looked so much better for the majority of his career. No doubt, he's overpaid, but if he's the Oilers 3rd D, he has the talent to be the best 3rd D in the NHL, I believe that. He needs a puck mover with him, Broberg can move the puck, he just needs NHL reps, to gain experience with the big club.


Bouchard is ELITE, 5th in Norris voting. Ekholm was probably a top 20 D last season, maybe top 15. If Nurse can get healthy and find his old game, and find some chemistry with Broberg. And Broberg can continue to improve and develop. This group could be scary good IMO.

 

[McFlyingV]

It's a significant concern. If we discount 2014-15 where he only played 6 games as a rookie, he's played 540/738 possible games over the last 9 years. Good for an average of 22 games missed per season or 27% of the max possible games missed.

But there's no question he's been consistently effective when he is out there and he did play 77/82 in 22-23.

Your numbers are a bit off. You didn't account for shortened seasons. 540/699 is the actual number, and I think last season is an outlier because he had surgery to his back before the season started so that he could be healthy for the playoffs. If we take out last year he has played 522/617 games meaning he averages 13 games missed on a typical year. Thats not insignificant, but he's still playing in 84% of his teams regular season games and hasn't missed much time at all in the playoffs.

The nice thing is you can easily plan for him missing 13 or 14 games, hell even 20 in the regular season because Perry can slide into the line up, and guys like Kane and Henrique can elevate to the top 6. To me it's a non-issue if he's healthy come playoff time.

 

[Salvaged Ship]

This is truly a cup or bust year and it starts with winning the division and gaining home ice, hopefully throughout the playoffs. My biggest concern in all of this is not addressing the proven vet goalie situation, they are all in it looks like with the Skinner/Pickard combo. I guess it can be addressed at the deadline if need be but it looks to be the biggest concern going forward. Hopefully Skinner can develop consistency and stop letting in softies, if not it comes down to scoring enough to make up for him giving up bad goals at times and we have seen how difficult that can be in the playoffs.

 

[TB12]

never forget

Rockstar shit.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I'm surprised at the number of people thinking Brown's going to be on the roster.

Imo the 1mil salary makes him less likely to be on the NHL roster full-time, and I'd bet Kemp (and possibly Wanner) will be a mainstay on the main roster before him.


At the pro level, the Oil didn't really have a proper heavyweight. Nurse and Kane can moonlight, but neither of those two should be your main answer for fights (especially as we don't know when/if Kane will be back this season). In Bakersfield, their best answer to rough stuff just retired with Malone calling it quits.

There aren't as many situations where a fighter is needed in 2024, but seeing LA adding Edmundson and Jeannot on top of Englund tells you what direction they're committing to; and the AHL is also a notoriously chippy league. A heavy is still a need you need to fill.

 

[TheNumber4]

never forget

Gettin HAAS in hereee

 

[Oilhawks]

I'm surprised at the number of people thinking Brown's going to be on the roster.

Imo the 1mil salary makes him less likely to be on the NHL roster full-time, and I'd bet Kemp (and possibly Wanner) will be a mainstay on the main roster before him.


At the pro level, the Oil didn't really have a proper heavyweight. Nurse and Kane can moonlight, but neither of those two should be your main answer for fights (especially as we don't know when/if Kane will be back this season). In Bakersfield, their best answer to rough stuff just retired with Malone calling it quits.

There aren't as many situations where a fighter is needed in 2024, but seeing LA adding Edmundson and Jeannot on top of Englund tells you what direction they're committing to; and the AHL is also a notoriously chippy league. A heavy is still a need you need to fill.

Agree with this. I think at most, he will be the 7D rotating in for heavy games. I see Stecher or a prospect like Kemp getting more reps in rotation as the 3rd pairing RD.

Also, people have to start saying J Brown and C Brown, when I first started reading your post I thought you meant C Brown and nearly spit my coffee out

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

K can't change vote but if this McLeod for Savoie thing goes through I'm changing my answer to A+.

 

[Kerberos]

A+ now.

If we upgrade on Ceci, Jackson becomes master of the Universe.

 

[Drivesaitl]

On paper the team looks really talented. For ticket sales the org got a lot of name players. Still, this team is old and slow headed into next season and gave up McLeod and Foegele two of our pace players.

Org has a tendency to get players after their prime. Perry and Brown still don't do anythign for me. Not sure why either was retained. In the case of Brown specifically two weeks in postseason doesn't make up for a year of playing shitty. Even in playoffs Brown was repeatedly healthy scratched and the pk was just as good without him. McLeod was the unsung pk player and Janmark. That said Janmark same boat as Brown. Didn't show his best till late in playoffs and I kind of wonder about that.

Skinner, Henrique, Arviddsson are skill players but of the 3 Henrique is the clear best and important to remember that in terms of what the others will bring to a lineup. Of them only Henrique is solid 200ft player and solid in playoffs. I like Arviddsson but age catching up and didn't get much done past couple playoffs. This last one particularly he was nothing. Arvie is another unknown coming back from serious injury and we just don't know how he will look. Skinner has never been in playoffs and is notably a player that will cheat forward.

As far as Savoie its fine to get a prospect bolster to our roster but he doesn't help us in the lineup next season so evaluated just on the one season window we lose McLeod, his pk ability, his goal suppression, zone exits and entries and one of the best pace players we had. We're not getting that pace back in adding multiple older players and retaining Perry and Brown.

 

[BlackDogg]

Jeff's trades are so yesterday now...

 

[nexttothemoon]

I'm sure others have pointed this out but I haven't participated in the threads here much since the downer of game 7... but replacing McLeod/Foegele with Skinner/Arvidsson could be a 30 goal increase in offense.

The 2 new guys could combine for around 60 goals whereas McLeod/Foegele probably top out at around 30 combined. This assumes healthy seasons for all involved of course.

Defensively I don't think you lose much either overall.

Arvidsson is very good defensively and Skinner is dogcrap defensively so that somewhat evens out.

Foegele was average at best defensively and McLeod at evens I would say was decent but not far above average defensively either.

The fact that you now have a full time Henrique at 3C is a pretty huge upgrade as well.

You've got a young and improving Holloway in the mix as well who has the potential to be just as good as McLeod overall as well and if the playoffs was an indicator... Holloway may ALREADY be as good as McLeod.

They upgraded the forwards very solidly when you have Arvidsson/Skinner in with an improving Holloway and full year of Henrique.

On D... Desharnais out and Stecher in... which is an improvement imo (as long as Stecher recovers from his injury).

Hopefully the improvement keeps coming from Broberg because he looked solid in the playoffs.


Depth pieces added at RD like Carrick and Brown don't hurt either... some depth on RD was definitely needed.

Goaltending is what it is... average at best with Skinner/Pickard in net... and it will likely stay average unless someone jumps out of the blue up to the NHL with an amazing season from Rodrigue/Ungar in the AHL.


Overall based on what Jackson and the Oilers have done so far... I'm going to say an A+ is deserved because forwards are definitely improved... defense has been slightly improved with Broberg improving organically and Stecher (hopefully) healthy for a full season.

Goaltending is same as last year but hopefully Skinner can build on what ended up being a decent playoff performance... and Pickard was surprisingly solid all year including in the playoffs when called upon.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I'm giving an A and not an A+ because the defense still needs a little work but that's likely more of a trade deadline thing.

Grading the moves individually....

Pickard 2 years $1m - A
Played as well as can be as a backup last season, saved their bacon in the Canucks series and got him for near minimum for the next 2 years, great locker room guy too by all accounts. Perfect

C. Brown 1 year $1m - A
Perfect number but was hoping for an extra year or two so I downgraded from A+

Arvidsson 2 years $8m - A+
Ideal number and term, best case scenario contract. Health is a bit of a concern but this is a 25 goal, 60 point guy who plays fast and gritty. He was my #1 realistic FA target so...mission accomplished

Perry 1 year $1.4m (bonuses included) - C
The one move I didn't like and especially now that they filled out the forward group after this signing. I get the locker room aspect of it but I don't think this is a team at this point in their development that needs a locker room guy anymore. I like the gamesmanship he brings but he looked two steps behind in the playoffs and I'd prefer to have a spot for somebody like Lavoie, need to get some youth injected into the lineup.
Not a crippling deal by any means but I could have done without it

Skinner 1 year $3m - A-
Can't ever complain about getting a 30 goal scorer for $3m. He scores a lot of goals in tight, with he and Hyman flanking McDavid, he might get like 150 assists haha. I give a little below an A because he's pretty soft but I'll get over it when he's pumping in 30+ goals next season

Janmark 3 years $4.35m - A+
Love the term, the AAV and the player. Thrilled to have him back. People talk about his playoffs but he was also solid in the regular season and there were several games when the team was dead team skating and he sparked them with a fight or a physical play.

Henrique 2 years $6m - A
See Janmark comments. My only slight worry is his age and the inevitable fall off but Henrique is the type of player who should be solid late into his 30s. It was crucial to bring The Identity 3 back (like a version of that great Islanders 4th line that changed tides in games regularly and played with an identity) and it was done at less than 5.5m.

J. Brown - 3 years $3m - B
#7 Dman - Vinny replacement, fill in for #6 if need be. Solid depth

Stecher - 2 years $787K/per - A
This is great value for him. I'm quite frankly surprised that no team threw a $1-1.5m offer his way.
Clear top 6 Dman IMO, gives the Oilers the flexibility to pursue a Ceci trade if need be.

Overall an A. I think he surpassed most of our expectations, not much more needs to be said. Team is ready to make a big run again and for more than 1 year.

Great post.

As for the bolded I disagree. It's tricky because he has the hockey sense to get by without foot speed, but that said he's super close to losing another step and when he does he is simply too slow to play. (look at Perry)

Rico will still be effective this year, but late 30's? No chance

 

[Mr Positive]

I'm definitely there with saying that it's like A- or B+

The big issue was the defense. Specifically 2nd pair RHD. It wasn't fixed and it will be a problem. I know Jackson isn't done yet but that's the standard of the top scores. There needs to be a place to go, and it's not like he did a move as good as the Ekholm trade.

Having said that, the moves are great. They are older forwards but that's okay, because it's for short term and they are high IQ players that will elevate their linemates. It's also perfect timing for re-signing Draisaitl and Bouchard because it has smashed the narrative that has dogged us since the player exodus after 2006. The fact is that we can attract a great surrounding cast and it isn't with a qualifier like Kane's off ice issues or with players that aren't quite good enough.

 

[5 14 6 1]

I'm definitely there with saying that it's like A- or B+

The big issue was the defense. Specifically 2nd pair RHD. It wasn't fixed and it will be a problem. I know Jackson isn't done yet but that's the standard of the top scores. There needs to be a place to go, and it's not like he did a move as good as the Ekholm trade.

Having said that, the moves are great. They are older forwards but that's okay, because it's for short term and they are high IQ players that will elevate their linemates. It's also perfect timing for re-signing Draisaitl and Bouchard because it has smashed the narrative that has dogged us since the player exodus after 2006. The fact is that we can attract a great surrounding cast and it isn't with a qualifier like Kane's off ice issues or with players that aren't quite good enough.

I'm guessing the D is addressed in season. UFA D were all generously overpaid.

 

[Mr Positive]

I'm guessing the D is addressed in season. UFA D were all generously overpaid.

I do agree that I don't see what we could have done. I wouldn't want us to a Campbell type move where we over invest in a player to chase a gamble. If there were a move it would likely be a trade, and likely a name we don't know

 

[Fourier]

On paper the team looks really talented. For ticket sales the org got a lot of name players. Still, this team is old and slow headed into next season and gave up McLeod and Foegele two of our pace players.

Org has a tendency to get players after their prime. Perry and Brown still don't do anythign for me. Not sure why either was retained. In the case of Brown specifically two weeks in postseason doesn't make up for a year of playing shitty. Even in playoffs Brown was repeatedly healthy scratched and the pk was just as good without him. McLeod was the unsung pk player and Janmark. That said Janmark same boat as Brown. Didn't show his best till late in playoffs and I kind of wonder about that.

Skinner, Henrique, Arviddsson are skill players but of the 3 Henrique is the clear best and important to remember that in terms of what the others will bring to a lineup. Of them only Henrique is solid 200ft player and solid in playoffs. I like Arviddsson but age catching up and didn't get much done past couple playoffs. This last one particularly he was nothing. Arvie is another unknown coming back from serious injury and we just don't know how he will look. Skinner has never been in playoffs and is notably a player that will cheat forward.

As far as Savoie its fine to get a prospect bolster to our roster but he doesn't help us in the lineup next season so evaluated just on the one season window we lose McLeod, his pk ability, his goal suppression, zone exits and entries and one of the best pace players we had. We're not getting that pace back in adding multiple older players and retaining Perry and Brown.

I am not sure how you can say that the team is slow. The top six is going to be something like

Skinner McDavid Hyman
Nuge Draisaitl Arvidsson.

The only guy in that group who could be remotely called slow is Skinner, and while he is not fast he is a very strong skater technically. This helps him in tight and in evading checks.

The bottom six will be a combination of Kane, Henrique, Holloway, Janmark, Brown, Perry and Ryan or potentially Lavoie or some other prospect like Philip. Perry is slow but I'd be surprised if he plays all that much. Henrique is definitely not fast but he has never been fast and has successfully played with fast guys all of his career. The rest of the bottom 6 core are in fact quite fast, assuming Kane is healthy.

Going by there NHL edge data you have in terms of top speed for forwards:

Holloway 78 percentile regular season 89 percentile playoffs
Janmark 79 percentile regular season 85 percentile playoffs
Brown 56 percentile regular season 95 percentile playoffs
Kane preinjury 89 percentile

The Brown we saw in the playoffs was the guy many of us had seen before his injury. The evidence above suggests that his injury really hurt his skating. But I know no one will change your mind on him so lets just stick to his skating.

As to Avridsson, he was actually fairly effective in the playoffs in 2023. But he also played most of his time on a checking line with Danault in a 1-3-1 system that does not exactly showcase his skills. He had excellent playoffs in 2017 and 2018 playing with some skill. And while he has aged for sure he is only 31.