Grade/Discuss Michael Grabner

[Veteran journeyman]

You're not connecting certain key pieces here, even though you mention them.

First off, you're looking at his best season in terms of point production which is his rookie season. In that season, you say that he gets hot twice and puts up the majority of those points. You're furthering the idea that he's a very streaky player and isn't at all consistent offensively. Secondly missing the fact that when you're a rookie on a lowly Islanders team, you're often overlooked by your opponent and a lot of the teams (mainly in the division) have adjusted to Grabner since then.

You can play Grabner more when he's hot, but for the majority of the season he needs lower minutes because when he plays higher minutes for extended periods of time he gets fatigued.

He also had 6 SHG in his rookie season, and does log a lot of time on the PK. Which is skewing your perception when talking about his highest minute time versus his lower one. You need to look at, how often he plays higher minutes and does he produce at a higher rate when he's at higher minutes. He only played more than 20 minutes 4 times last season, and he had 1p and was a -1.

JT doesn't need a speed guy on his line who doesn't control the puck well in the offensive zone, who also happens to be extremely streaky.

Grabner is good, but he does not possess the skills necessary to be a top 6 forward right now. He needs to develop at least one of his weak areas into a stronger game in order for that to happen.

No, that's not what I was trying to say. He had 20 points in those 12 games, but put up 52 total that season, so definitely not the majority. The idea I was getting at was strictly related to the minutes/fatigue theory. I took his two longest point streaks that season to show that his ice time was above 15 minutes for every game during one of those streaks and below 15 minutes for every game during the other. His ice time had little to no impact on whether he'd put points up...the only difference was his point total was actually higher in the streak where he got more minutes.

From Feb. 1 that season until the last game on Apr. 9, he logged over 15 minutes in all but two games and he was far more productive and consistent than earlier on in the season when he rarely played over 15 (you can see for yourself: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473546&view=log&season=20102011). I'm not saying he was more productive because of the ice time (I think he was used in a better role with more freedom at that part of the season than earlier on) but I am saying he was at his most productive as an Islander while consistently logging over the magical 15 minute mark that he's not allowed to cross now without fatigue supposedly limiting his production.

Incidentally, his longest scoring drought that season was seven games, six of which he logged under 15 minutes. His second-longest drought that season was six games, five of which he logged under 15 minutes. This past season, his longest scoring drought was five games, none of which he logged over 15 minutes. His most productive scoring streak this past season was the first three games of the year, all of which he logged over 15 minutes. When he's scoring, he's scoring, and when he's not, he's not. It doesn't really have anything to do with ice time, from what I see. Even in his worst season, 2011-12, you can't really make a case for more/less ice time and production looking at the game logs. He put points up in games with over 15 minutes and put points up in games under, and struggled mightily for stretches logging both over and under.

All the other stuff is fine for a debate about why he should or shouldn't get more ice time...his streakiness, whether he is or isn't a good match playing with JT, areas of the game where he should improve, etc (personally I disagree with you about him not being a top-six player and think he's better suited there than some other players currently cemented into that role, but that's for another post). But saying that limited minutes are necessary because he can't produce as well unless he's limited to 12-14 minutes is just not really true.

 

[luki here]

All the other stuff is fine for a debate about why he should or shouldn't get more ice time...his streakiness, whether he is or isn't a good match playing with JT, areas of the game where he should improve, etc (personally I disagree with you about him not being a top-six player and think he's better suited there than some other players currently cemented into that role, but that's for another post). But saying that limited minutes are necessary because he can't produce as well unless he's limited to 12-14 minutes is just not really true.

Of course not, but he can still produce with limited minutes. Others can't. Putting grabs on the third line gives the isles an advantage in regards to secondary scoring, an advantage few teams have. That's a large part of what makes grabs so valuable.

 

[Veteran journeyman]

Of course not, but he can still produce with limited minutes. Others can't. Putting grabs on the third line gives the isles an advantage in regards to secondary scoring, an advantage few teams have. That's a large part of what makes grabs so valuable.

That makes more sense than some of the other stuff I've seen. The thing with Grabner that fans are trying to figure out, I think, is wondering what happened in 2011-12 when his production slipped. This past season, he seemed to improve; despite playing in a reduced role, he was second on the team goals, so he can certainly still score. So why "just" 20 goals in 2011-12?

Who knows, really. Maybe he just had a bad season, pure and simple. He was coming off a Calder finalist rookie season, he got a nice contract extension in the offseason and had his first kid. Speaking personally, if that was me, maybe I would have taken that all in a bit too much and not prepared for the following season with the same intensity. I don't know if that's the case with Grabner. It'd be interesting if someone with access asked him about what was different that season.