Gordie Howe's offensive ceiling

Where do you place Gordie Howe's offensive ceiling ?


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Just looking at the papers from that time, Gordie Howe had a sprained right shoulder against Toronto November 3rd 1954 which was considered to not be too serious after further examination (by the medical standards of the time I guess I should point out as Dr. Milton Kosley reported "no bones are broken, and his injury appears to be torn ligaments in the right shoulder" so that is some quick therapy lol) and only expected to keep him out for a week to ten days. He suffered the injury tripping while forechecking Hugh Bolton, and finished the game as "it didn't hurt then, but it started hurting after the game" and overnight the shoulder stiffened up after the team's chartered flight to Boston.

Detroit wasn't as hot or as high in the standings early that year compared to years before, though Ted Lindsay among others pointed not only to Gordie Howe missing time, but the Wings shipping off Prystai as a big reason for it.

Howe's stats before his injury are 4 goals and 9 points in 10 games. Seem low, but Howe seemed to generally be a slow starter anyway in years before (11-12 points usually but only 7 in 1951-1952), so not sure how much to read into that.

There's little talk on the injury or any lingering effects after Howe returning however, and the Wings did of course win their last (for a while) cup in 1955.

In the four seasons before 1954-1955, Gordie scored an average of 43 goals and 87 points in a 70 game season. In the four seasons after, he scored an average of 37/38 goals and 82/83 points. Given that the former timeframe saw Howe in his early twenties and the latter in his late twenties, and Lindsay himself entering his thirties, the small difference makes sense no? Most star forwards have their highest scoring years in their early twenties. Gordie may be exceptional in longevity, but is he exceptional in this case of when his best years would be?

The issue I'll always have with looking at scoring placements can be summed up with the early and latter part of the fifties. Which group looks stronger to you?

1950-1951 to 1953-1954

1955-1956 to 1958-1959

The question really is, how would early twenties Gordie look against that latter fifties peer group? Or how would Gordie's dominance look if guys like Beliveau, Bathgate, Moore were in their primes in the early fifties.

To add, this is probably the clearest indication we'll have of why Gordie Howe saw a dip in 1954-1955 (from the Montreal Gazette, February 23 1955)

gordie howe slump.png


Even the best and most consistent slump sometimes
 
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Just looking at the papers from that time, Gordie Howe had a sprained right shoulder against Toronto November 3rd 1954 which was considered to not be too serious after further examination (by the medical standards of the time I guess I should point out as Dr. Milton Kosley reported "no bones are broken, and his injury appears to be torn ligaments in the right shoulder" so that is some quick therapy lol) and only expected to keep him out for a week to ten days. He suffered the injury tripping while forechecking Hugh Bolton, and finished the game as "it didn't hurt then, but it started hurting after the game" and overnight the shoulder stiffened up after the team's chartered flight to Boston.

Detroit wasn't as hot or as high in the standings early that year compared to years before, though Ted Lindsay among others pointed not only to Gordie Howe missing time, but the Wings shipping off Prystai as a big reason for it.

Howe's stats before his injury are 4 goals and 9 points in 10 games. Seem low, but Howe seemed to generally be a slow starter anyway in years before (11-12 points usually but only 7 in 1951-1952), so not sure how much to read into that.

There's little talk on the injury or any lingering effects after Howe returning however, and the Wings did of course win their last (for a while) cup in 1955.

In the four seasons before 1954-1955, Gordie scored an average of 43 goals and 87 points in a 70 game season. In the four seasons after, he scored an average of 37/38 goals and 82/83 points. Given that the former timeframe saw Howe in his early twenties and the latter in his late twenties, and Lindsay himself entering his thirties, the small difference makes sense no? Most star forwards have their highest scoring years in their early twenties. Gordie may be exceptional in longevity, but is he exceptional in this case of when his best years would be?

The issue I'll always have with looking at scoring placements can be summed up with the early and latter part of the fifties. Which group looks stronger to you?

1950-1951 to 1953-1954

1955-1956 to 1958-1959

The question really is, how would early twenties Gordie look against that latter fifties peer group? Or how would Gordie's dominance look if guys like Beliveau, Bathgate, Moore were in their primes in the early fifties.

To add, this is probably the clearest indication we'll have of why Gordie Howe saw a dip in 1954-1955 (from the Montreal Gazette, February 23 1955)

View attachment 464019

Even the best and most consistent slump sometimes

Was just about to post the same thing.

His two seasons after 54/55 see a Howe that is still ahead of the pack but not as much as 51-54, and a peak Beliveau has joined him. That he is a bit older is an easy explanation for a noticeable drop in his production (as measured by his relative domination to the league).

Peak Hull and Peak Mikita also put up at least one season that statistically matches Howe's best except for 52/53.

That Howe has multiple seasons (say like the best 5 or 6 out of the Top Ten for his era (1947 to 1967) while Beliveau, Hull and Mikita have one (maybe two) is what puts him on a clear tier ahead of those players (and ahead of everyone else not name Wayne or Mario).

But he only has one season that is untouchable by his era peers. Similarly, Hull, Mikita and Beliveau also have one season that is untouchable by their era peers (sans Howe). Wayne and Mario have more than one season that are untouchable by their era peers but, objectively, their historic peers, and, in Mario's case, multiple seasons that were gettable by Howe's peak season.
 
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So what is the explanation for why older Maurice Richard suddenly started keeping pace with Gordie Howe, after getting blown away by him previously?

Why did Howe not lead his own (less stacked) team in scoring by the margins he used to?

I'm assuming you are using Howe's linemate Ted Lindsay as a standard #2 when you say others had seasons similar to Howe's 4 year peak? I'm skeptical as to whether Lindsay puts up those totals in a more normal situation. (If we are to, in fact, take Lindsay's totals at face value, then he was vastly underrated on this board's ranking project).

I have answered most of this in the above post but wanted to point out that if his injury was that significant, how did he manage to put up his peak playoff performance in 1955?

And further to this, his playoff resume backs up the premise that his peak wasn't close to Wayne's. His best run is among the best of his era unlike Wayne and Mario's best runs which which are clearly superior.

His overall playoff resume is great and solidifies his position as the best offensive player of his era (total Cup wins aside) but it does nothing to place him on the untouchable levels that Wayne and Mario reached.
 
Explain please.
If you look at the scoring numbers that come from low scoring eras at face value they sure don't look as impressive as the numbers from high scoring eras. That was the main reason people started adjusting statistics wasn't it?
 
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Peak Hull and Peak Mikita also put up at least one season that statistically matches Howe's best except for 52/53.

Howe's best season (95 points) was set in 1953, when there were 4.80 goals per game.

Hull's best season (97 points) was in 1966, when there were 6.08 goals per game (27% higher). Mikita's best season (also 97 points) was in 1967, when there were 5.96 goals per game (24% higher).

It's literally true that Hull and Mikita matched Howe's offensive peak. But that's entirely explained by the change in the scoring environment. Taking that into account, Howe's performance was around 20% better.
 
If you look at the scoring numbers that come from low scoring eras at face value they sure don't look as impressive as the numbers from high scoring eras. That was the main reason people started adjusting statistics wasn't it?

I deal with facts not adjusted suppositions.
 
I deal with facts not adjusted suppositions.

Fact is that league scoring shot up consistently throughout Howe's career.

Howe has 6x Ross and 12x Top 3 in scoring
Gretzky had 11x Ross and 16x Top 3 in scoring
Lemieux had 6x Ross and 8x Top 3 in scoring

Obviously Gretzky is alone on top when it comes to scoring, but interesting to note that Howe is right there with him in Top 3 finishes.

To be fair to Lemieux's injuries, lets look at PPG finishes:

Howe: 7x led league, 11x Top 3
Gretzky: 11x led league, 14x Top 3
Lemieux: 7x led league, 11x Top 3

Point being, Howe is right there with them in dominance over their respective peers
 
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Fact is that league scoring shot up consistently throughout Howe's career.

Howe has 6x Ross and 12x Top 3 in scoring
Gretzky had 11x Ross and 16x Top 3 in scoring
Lemieux had 6x Ross and 8x Top 3 in scoring

Obviously Gretzky is alone on top when it comes to scoring, but interesting to note that Howe is right there with him in Top 3 finishes.

To be fair to Lemieux's injuries, lets look at PPG finishes:

Howe: 7x led league, 11x Top 3
Gretzky: 11x led league, 14x Top 3
Lemieux: 7x led league, 11x Top 3

Point being, Howe is right there with them in dominance over their respective peers
The depth of talent also changed significantly. It just cannot be ignored completely that someone like Lemieux was brought up in the 70s when virtually every kid in Canada tried hockey and he dominated in a league which pretty much by the early 90s became a worldwide superleague. Howe was brought up in the 30s when organized sports weren't even played by the majority of children and played in a league which was virtually 100% Canadian. It's odd that this gets ignored here completely while goals per game is taken as an absolute judgment of skill despite the fact that KHL has less goals scored than the NHL even though it's a clearly weaker league.
 
The depth of talent also changed significantly. It just cannot be ignored completely that someone like Lemieux was brought up in the 70s when virtually every kid in Canada tried hockey and he dominated in a league which pretty much by the early 90s became a worldwide superleague. Howe was brought up in the 30s when organized sports weren't even played by the majority of children and played in a league which was virtually 100% Canadian. It's odd that this gets ignored here completely while goals per game is taken as an absolute judgment of skill despite the fact that KHL has less goals scored than the NHL even though it's a clearly weaker league.
I had forgotten this retort of yours since your entrance on this forum.
The ppg argument only claims that players raw stats must be filtered through the league's differing ppg through the years.
It is however still possible to bring forth other arguments adding to that, such as yours now. I'm not the one best suited at the moment to retort to them though, but know that these other arguments have been bent and weighed not the least in the 'Top-XXXXX' player projects on this history board.
 
Fact is that league scoring shot up consistently throughout Howe's career.

Howe has 6x Ross and 12x Top 3 in scoring
Gretzky had 11x Ross and 16x Top 3 in scoring
Lemieux had 6x Ross and 8x Top 3 in scoring

Obviously Gretzky is alone on top when it comes to scoring, but interesting to note that Howe is right there with him in Top 3 finishes.

To be fair to Lemieux's injuries, lets look at PPG finishes:

Howe: 7x led league, 11x Top 3
Gretzky: 11x led league, 14x Top 3
Lemieux: 7x led league, 11x Top 3

Point being, Howe is right there with them in dominance over their respective peers

I concur. I doubted my choice to vote option 4 and stated I wasn't sure it was the right one.

Then you will never reach any conclusions but the easy ones?

You need to realize that I am a believer in the history of hockey. I judge players based on how they grade out against their contemporaries. I don't need adjusted # to do this.
 
Howe's best season (95 points) was set in 1953, when there were 4.80 goals per game.

Hull's best season (97 points) was in 1966, when there were 6.08 goals per game (27% higher). Mikita's best season (also 97 points) was in 1967, when there were 5.96 goals per game (24% higher).

It's literally true that Hull and Mikita matched Howe's offensive peak. But that's entirely explained by the change in the scoring environment. Taking that into account, Howe's performance was around 20% better.

I stated that Howe's 52/53 season was untouchable. His other seasons are not.
 
Fact is that league scoring shot up consistently throughout Howe's career.

Howe has 6x Ross and 12x Top 3 in scoring
Gretzky had 11x Ross and 16x Top 3 in scoring
Lemieux had 6x Ross and 8x Top 3 in scoring

Obviously Gretzky is alone on top when it comes to scoring, but interesting to note that Howe is right there with him in Top 3 finishes.

To be fair to Lemieux's injuries, lets look at PPG finishes:

Howe: 7x led league, 11x Top 3
Gretzky: 11x led league, 14x Top 3
Lemieux: 7x led league, 11x Top 3


Point being, Howe is right there with them in dominance over their respective peers

Remove Wayne from Mario's finishes and he has 3 or 4 more, and a Top 3 finish in the O6 is more like Top 4/5 in Mario's era.
 
To be fair to Lemieux's injuries, lets look at PPG finishes:

Howe: 7x led league, 11x Top 3
Gretzky: 11x led league, 14x Top 3
Lemieux: 7x led league, 11x Top 3

Point being, Howe is right there with them in dominance over their respective peers

Interesting to see how Crosby rates in this metric.

5x led league, 11xTop5
 
It's also interesting how Gretzky and lemieux each directly cost each other 3 major awards.

Gretzky cost Mario 2 harts and 1 art ross and Mario cost Gretzky 3 art ross trophies ( Steven's had 123 points to gretzkys 121 in 91-92. Safe to say without lemieux Steven's doesn't do that and Wayne is directly 2nd in scoring instead of third)

Without Gretzky
Mario 7 art ross 5 harts
Without Mario
Gretzky 13 art ross 9 harts
 
The thing with howe is that he put up those offensive numbers while also playing a complete game AND putting the fear of God into other players. There has been (with some possible outside comparisons in guys like early lindros, bobby hull, and possibly tkachuk) almost no complete "5 tool players" that hit, fight, score, set up, forecheck, backcheck, and all with maximum intensity. Theres a reason the guy EARNED the moniker of "Mr. Hockey".

Strictly offence, hes right below the likes of lemieux and gretz, but in-game impact... its Howe, outside track on orr too.
 
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Howe's best season (95 points) was set in 1953, when there were 4.80 goals per game.

Hull's best season (97 points) was in 1966, when there were 6.08 goals per game (27% higher). Mikita's best season (also 97 points) was in 1967, when there were 5.96 goals per game (24% higher).

It's literally true that Hull and Mikita matched Howe's offensive peak. But that's entirely explained by the change in the scoring environment. Taking that into account, Howe's performance was around 20% better.

Based on per game performance vs. an appropriate sample of the their peers, I think the peak season of Hull 65/66, Mikita 66/67, Believeau 55/56, Zyerman 88/89, Jagr 98/99, Crosby 10/11 or 12/13, McDavid 20/21 are in the same ballpark as Howe's best seasons outside of his 52/53 season, namely his three other "peak seasons". You can add Richard's 44/45 and OV's 07/08 if you want to put a strong emphasis on goalscoring.

That Howe was able to replicate four elite seasons in a row including a season that is on a tier of its own other than Wayne and Mario, clearly puts him above those other players.

Jagr has the closest four year level of dominance in raw point totals. Hull/Mikita's best four years are impressive too.

Crosby has the closest four year level of dominance in PPG.
 
Howe never dominated a scoring race the way 66 and 99 did.
160 in 60
148 in 84

That is domination howe never sniffed. On pace (224) 76 more points than the second place scorer. Art ross percentages be damned. That is raw domination
 
Howe never dominated a scoring race the way 66 and 99 did.
160 in 60
148 in 84

That is domination howe never sniffed. On pace (224) 76 more points than the second place scorer. Art ross percentages be damned. That is raw domination

You use the word "raw" incorrectly. When you have 64 imaginary points, I think you have to say projected domination.
 

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