going forward: Thompson-Cozens vs Zegras-McTavish vs Stutzle-Norris

[CowbellConray]

agreed... I mean, if I did this poll last year after the Milano-Zegras goal, or soon after the WJC last July, the ANA duo probably wins it.

I do think TT may the best going forward, even though hes a little older. His size and skillset is just so rare to see. Question is can he do it for long with his 6'7 frame? knees/back may be an issue into his 30s.

Yea I do wonder with his skating style (Thompson is so effortless and can shift his weight so well for his size) does he have the threat of losing some of that as he gets into his 30s.

However, I'm just happy as a Sabres fan that my biggest concern with Thompson is his knees holding up 6-7 years from now. Give me a half a decade of what he can bring to the table!

 

[amnesiac]

Yea I do wonder with his skating style (Thompson is so effortless and can shift his weight so well for his size) does he have the threat of losing some of that as he gets into his 30s.

However, I'm just happy as a Sabres fan that my biggest concern with Thompson is his knees holding up 6-7 years from now. Give me a half a decade of what he can bring to the table!

yep, gotta win while your stars are cheap(er). Not sure their cap space next summer, but I do believe its a good summer for big name UFAs. I dont really beleive in spending a lot on July 1, but one big name may be worth it for BUF.

 

[bert]

This to me is a classic "where is your team right now" poll.

Playoff team needing that last piece to put you over the top? Buffalo's two
Rebuilding team needing butts in seats and a great future? Ducks' two

I do think Ottawa's duo is a VERY slight tier below (I think Norris is a 2nd line guy and I feel everyone else has top line potential), but even then, if you want the home run potential, Stutzle is right there.

Of course I'm happy as a Sabres fan, but all three have their place at the top.

Norris is literally the sens first line center and played at a 44 goal pace last year. Show me how many other players are 45 goal pace players at 22 that are 2nd liners. He is also responsible defensively and takes all the hard matchups. I dont see how anyone takes Zegras and Mactavish over Stutzle and Norris. Buffalos players are hot right now sure but Stutzle is 20 he is ahead of every player in the poll at the same age.

 

[Final Boss]

Norris is literally the sens first line center and played at a 44 goal pace last year. Show me how many other players are 45 goal pace players at 22 that are 2nd liners. He is also responsible defensively and takes all the hard matchups. I dont see how anyone takes Zegras and Mactavish over Stutzle and Norris. Buffalos players are hot right now sure but Stutzle is 20 he is ahead of every player in the poll at the same age.

Stuetzle is about to be 21 while McTavish is just turning 20 so lets stop trying to exaggerate here

Norris also shot 20% last season, which wont happen again.

So yes, Josh Norris is a step below every other player here. Hes the only name listed without true PPG capability, maybe he hits it a few times

Also McTavish has, literally, exactly the same amount of points in his 19-turning-20 Oct-Jan stretch as Stuetzle did last season. And on a much worse team.

 

[bert]

Stuetzle is about to be 21 while McTavish is just turning 20 so lets stop trying to exaggerate here

Norris also shot 20% last season, which wont happen again.

So yes, Josh Norris is a step below every other player here. Hes the only name listed without true PPG capability, maybe he hits it a few times

Also McTavish has, literally, exactly the same amount of points in his 19-turning-20 Oct-Jan stretch as Stuetzle did last season. And on a much worse team.

Stutzle is a year older than Mactavish.... Thats it 1 year. Talk about exaggeration. Stutzle is WAY ahead of him. He has been playing at a ppg for almost 80 games in a row. The eye test also shows you how elite his skillset it. He made the NHL earlier and produces more.

I am a big Mactavish fan but I dont know how he has PPG potential right now and Norris doesnt. How many of them can play first line center first PK and score like that?...

If you actually think Mactavish is the same level as Stutzle go right ahead. But you are flat out wrong.

 

[Final Boss]

Stutzle is a year older than Mactavish.... Thats it 1 year. Talk about exaggeration. Stutzle is WAY ahead of him. He has been playing at a ppg for almost 80 games in a row. The eye test also shows you how elite his skillset it. He made the NHL earlier and produces more.

I am a big Mactavish fan but I dont know how he has PPG potential right now and Norris doesnt. How many of them can play first line center first PK and score like that?...

If you actually think Mactavish is the same level as Stutzle go right ahead. But you are flat out wrong.

nowhere in my post is exaggeration.
"Stuetzle is turning 21 while McTavish is turning 20" , yeah I too can see that adds to one year. Wheres the exaggeration exactly?

Meanwhile your argument for McTavish below Stuetzle (which isnt even the comparison, its McTavish vs Norris and Zegras vs Stuetzle) is meaningless and also poorly articulated. McTavish has produced exactly as Stuetzle did at the same age yet on a much worse team

 

[Xspyrit]

I think Norris is a 2nd line guy and I feel everyone else has top line potential

2nd liners don't end up Top-15 on that list on a 100 games sample size

From March 15th 2021 to the end of the 2021-22 season

1- Auston Matthews 0.82 GP in 98 GP
2- Leon Draisaitl 0.66 GP in 106 GP
3- Alex Ovechkin 0.65 GP in 99 GP
4- Aleksander Barkov 0.60 GP in 90 GP
5- Kirill Kaprizov 0.58 GP in 110 GP
6- Connor McDavid 0.57 GP in 106 GP
7- Kyle Connor 0.56 GP in 108 GP
8- Chris Kreider 0.55 GP in 105 GP
9- Filip Forsberg 0.55 GP in 80 GP
10- Alex DeBrincat 0.53 GP in 109 GP
11- Nikita Kucherov 0.53 GP in 47 GP
12- Gabriel Landeskog 0.53 GP in 81 GP
13- Mikko Rantanen 0.52 GP in 101 GP
14- Matt Duchene 0.52 GP in 89 GP
15- Josh Norris 0.52 GP in 91 GP

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Norris also shot 20% last season, which wont happen again.

Norris is not a volume shooter, he shoots when he really thinks he can score. He has an history of high S%

2016‑17 (17 y/o) Team USA - USNTDP (USHL) 12 goals in 25 GP 16.2 S%
2017‑18 (18 y/o) University of Michigan (NCAA) 8 goals in 37 GP 8.2 S%
2018‑19 (19 y/o) University of Michigan (NCAA) 10 goals in 17 GP 14.5 S%
2019‑20 (20 y/o) Belleville Senators (AHL) 31 goals in 56 GP 19.4 S%
2020‑21 (21 y/o) Ottawa Senators (NHL) 17 goals in 56 GP 17.7 S%
2021‑22 (22 y/o) Ottawa Senators (NHL) 35 goals in 66 GP 20.3 S%

If anything, he should be told to shoot more as his shot regularly goes through goalies

 

[Crow]

Tough poll. I guess I’m betting on Norris getting/staying healthier.

 

[Final Boss]

2nd liners don't end up Top-15 on that list

From March 15th 2021 to the end of the 2021-22 season

1- Auston Matthews 0.82 GP in 98 GP
2- Leon Draisaitl 0.66 GP in 106 GP
3- Alex Ovechkin 0.65 GP in 99 GP
4- Aleksander Barkov 0.60 GP in 90 GP
5- Kirill Kaprizov 0.58 GP in 110 GP
6- Connor McDavid 0.57 GP in 106 GP
7- Kyle Connor 0.56 GP in 108 GP
8- Chris Kreider 0.55 GP in 105 GP
9- Filip Forsberg 0.55 GP in 80 GP
10- Alex DeBrincat 0.53 GP in 109 GP
11- Nikita Kucherov 0.53 GP in 47 GP
12- Gabriel Landeskog 0.53 GP in 81 GP
13- Mikko Rantanen 0.52 GP in 101 GP
14- Matt Duchene 0.52 GP in 89 GP
15- Josh Norris 0.52 GP in 91 GP

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Norris is not a volume shooter, he shoots when he really thinks he can score. He has an history of high S%

2016‑17 (17 y/o) Team USA - USNTDP (USHL) 12 goals in 25 GP 16.2 S%
2017‑18 (18 y/o) University of Michigan (NCAA) 8 goals in 37 GP 8.2 S%
2018‑19 (19 y/o) University of Michigan (NCAA) 10 goals in 17 GP 14.5 S%
2019‑20 (20 y/o) Belleville Senators (AHL) 31 goals in 56 GP 19.4 S%
2020‑21 (21 y/o) Ottawa Senators (NHL) 17 goals in 56 GP 17.7 S%
2021‑22 (22 y/o) Ottawa Senators (NHL) 35 goals in 66 GP 20.3 S%

Sure and I heard this exact same argument for Elias Pettersson when he was shooting 19%. 'hEs SeLeCtIvE'

No, Josh Norris will not be one of the four NHL players to ever average 20+% in a career. Nor will he be in the next 35 to average above 18%

When the history of the league gives you a <1% chance, its not worth arguing over

 

[Xspyrit]

Sure and I heard this exact same argument for Elias Pettersson when he was shooting 19%. 'hEs SeLeCtIvE'

No, Josh Norris will not be one of the four NHL players to ever average 20+% in a career. Nor will he be in the next 35 to average above 18%

When the history of the league gives you a <1% chance, its not worth arguing over

No one ever said that...

He scored 35 goals in 172 shots last season. Even if he "regresses" to his lowest S% in a while (17.7%), he still scores 38 goals per 82 games.

But ok I guess that 47 goals in 91 games stretch at 21-22 y/o was just a lucky run

 

[Final Boss]

No one ever said that...

He scored 35 goals in 172 shots last season. Even if he "regresses" to his lowest S% in a while (17.7%), he still scores 38 goals per 82 games.

But ok I guess that 47 goals in 91 games stretch at 21-22 y/o was just a lucky run

Well he only played 66 games which means hed likely come in under 20%. However I didnt even realize I typed 'happen again' when I was working with the logic of 'wont keep happening'.

Id probably not argue he cant shoot 20% in a season. Hes a sniper and its definitely possible. I meant to argue his shooting % will regress to a mean as he becomes the player he becomes and then his prime. Especially with the wave of goalies and defenseman coming up. It happens with all shooters including Ovechkin, and Bossy didnt play past 30 so Id argue hed have fallen down past 20% as well.

Norris probably averages out at 16-17% when its all said and done

 

[Shmuffalo]

It's difficult to tell, but I'm a Sabres fan... [looks over at username]

This is tough. I love Norris and Timbo Stü. McTavish is a stud, and Zegras reminds me of a Tik-Tok-Version of Afinogenov.

I'll go homer and vote Tage/Cozens, but nice poll.

 

[Xspyrit]

Well he only played 66 games which means hed likely come in under 20%. However I didnt even realize I typed 'happen again' when I was working with the logic of 'wont keep happening'.

Id probably not argue he cant shoot 20% in a season. Hes a sniper and its definitely possible. I meant to argue his shooting % will regress to a mean as he becomes the player he becomes and then his prime. Especially with the wave of goalies and defenseman coming up. It happens with all shooters including Ovechkin, and Bossy didnt play past 30 so Id argue hed have fallen down past 20% as well.

Norris probably averages out at 16-17% when its all said and done

Yes, that's what most Sens fans think. Let's say 20% was his top accuracy form, 15% would be a somewhat disappointing season. If all things stay the same he'll fluctuate between 15 and 20%

It's important to note that 66 games is not a small sample size. If someone shoots 20% after 20 games, it's likely that this % will regress over the season, particularly if the player doesn't have an history of high S% like Norris does

 

[KevSkillz4]

Right now Thompson, but in the future I would pick Zegras and McTavish.

 

[Coffee]

Who ya got, going forward?

Good poll

 

[LuckyDucky]

It's difficult to tell, but I'm a Sabres fan... [looks over at username]

This is tough. I love Norris and Timbo Stü. McTavish is a stud, and Zegras reminds me of a Tik-Tok-Version of Afinogenov.

I'll go homer and vote Tage/Cozens, but nice poll.

There are a couple bad takes on Zegras in this thread, but this one takes the cake. Zegras has his faults, no doubt. With that said, too many posters here fall back on the lazy “he’s all flash” narrative because of a few goals he’s scored.

 

[wetcoast]

Right now Thompson/Cozens, but in the future could very well be Zegras/Mactavish

This is how I looked at it as well the "going forward" part and one has to seriously look at the ducks duo for the future even though I think Stutzle might be the best player of the 6 Norris might end up being the bottom guy.

 

[Shmuffalo]

There are a couple bad takes on Zegras in this thread, but this one takes the cake. Zegras has his faults, no doubt. With that said, too many posters here fall back on the lazy “he’s all flash” narrative because of a few goals he’s scored.

It wasn't an insult.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Tage is the best of the 6 players right now, by a good margin too. Add in Cozens, it's a no brainer for me.

 

[jbeck5]

This is how I looked at it as well the "going forward" part and one has to seriously look at the ducks duo for the future even though I think Stutzle might be the best player of the 6 Norris might end up being the bottom guy.

But Norris could just as easily be the top goal scorer of the group, too.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Tage is the best of the 6 players right now, by a good margin too. Add in Cozens, it's a no brainer for me.

The toughest thing about this poll is that Thompson is so much older than Stutzle and Zegras. I think today you obviously have to take the Buffalo duo, but how good can those other guys be in 3-4 years?

 

[Xspyrit]

But Norris could just as easily be the top goal scorer of the group, too.

I didn't realize how underrated Norris was. What he did at 21 and 22 y/o was very impressive. Scoring a lot of goals while facing top competition night after night and doing pretty well on a rebuilding team... But yeah, he's automatically the worst here.

2020-21 + 2021-22 :

Josh Norris : 122 GP 52 Goals 90 Pts (0.43 GPG, 0.74 PPG)

Other Centers from the 2017 draft :

Robert Thomas : 105 GP 23 Goals 89 Pts (0.22 GPG, 0.85 PPG)
Elias Pettersson : 106 GP 42 Goals 89 Pts (0.40 GPG, 0.84 PPG)
Nico Hischier : 91 GP 27 Goals 71 Pts (0.30 GPG, 0.78 PPG)
Nick Suzuki : 138 GP 36 Goals 102 Pts (0.26 GPG, 0.74 PPG)
Martin Necas : 131 GP 28 Goals 81 Pts (0.21 GPG, 0.62 PPG)
Casey Mittelstadt : 81 GP 16 Goals 41 Pts (0.20 GPG, 0.51 PPG)
Filip Chytil : 109 GP 16 Goals 44 Pts (0.15 GPG, 0.40 PPG)

Now if you look further in defensive impact and other facets of the game, it shows that Norris totally belongs in the conversation among the best of that draft

 

[Golden_Jet]

nowhere in my post is exaggeration.
"Stuetzle is turning 21 while McTavish is turning 20" , yeah I too can see that adds to one year. Wheres the exaggeration exactly?

Meanwhile your argument for McTavish below Stuetzle (which isnt even the comparison, its McTavish vs Norris and Zegras vs Stuetzle) is meaningless and also poorly articulated. McTavish has produced exactly as Stuetzle did at the same age yet on a much worse team

Anaheim has 3 less points than Ottawa after 28 games , this time last year, not really a much worse team.