If the Pens take Eric Staal they have the best forward core in the world for the next 20+ years.
I'm fairly certain that the Pens trading up to #1 was contingent on them taking Fleury. Florida preferred Horton to Staal and figured they could squeeze out some extra assets and still get Horton at #3. If the Pens took Staal, Florida probably wouldn't have risked Carolina taking Horton at #2.
And it's just conjecture, but hypothetically the 2003-04 Penguins with Eric Staal would have been slightly better. The Pens had the worst record in the league (58 points) but finished only one point ahead of both Chicago and Washington. Staal could have been the difference between having the #1 pick pre-lottery rather than say #2 or #3. Columbus was only 4 points behind the Pens as well.
Maybe in a different world, the Pens with Staal finish in the #3 spot and win the lottery for Ovechkin. Winning the 2004 lottery would have meant a reduction of their chances to win the 2005 lottery for Crosby.
Or if the Pens with Staal finished #2 and were bumped down to #3 after the lottery. Instead of Malkin, they'd probably end up with consensus #3 Cam Barker instead.
Plus you can always trade that star forward for a starting goaltender if need be. Taking a goalie 1st overall is a stupid idea IMO.
Even a top 5 or 10 pick is usually Pejorative Slured.
Generally I agree with your first statement, but the second one can be argued. It's a bad assumption that you're going to land a premium forward/defenseman if you hadn't taken a goalie. The tendency is to cherry pick the name of a player taken well after the goalie.
Here are the goalies taken in the top 10 since 1990 and the five players taken after them:
1993: Jocelyn Thibault (10th overall) - Brendan Witt, Kenny Jonsson, Denis Pederson, Adam Deadmarsh, Mats Lindgren
Thibault had an okay career but it's not like he sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the five skaters taken after him. Jonsson was great but returned to Sweden in his prime. Deadmarsh's career was cut short due to injury, as was Pederson's.
1994: Jamie Storr (7th overall) - Jason Wiemer, Brett Lindros, Nolan Baumgartner, Jeff Friesen, Wade Belak
Storr was a perennial goalie of the future for the Kings. He didn't pan out, but Friesen was the only above average player of that grouping.
1997: Roberto Luongo (4th overall) - Eric Brewer, Daniel Tkaczuk, Paul Mara, Sergei Samsonov, Nick Boynton
Islanders didn't benefit due to impatience, but I think Luongo's more than justified his draft spot.
1999: Brian Finley (6th overall) - Kris Beech, Taylor Pyatt, Jamie Lundmark, Branislav Mezei, Oleg Saprykin
Vaguely recall injuries wrecking Finley's career. 1999 proved to be a bad year for most folks. While the Preds didn't get much out of Finley, they would haven't done much better had they picked Beech or Lundmark like many expected going into that draft.
2000: Rick DiPietro (1st overall) - Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik, Rusty Klesla, Raffi Torres, Scott Hartnell, Lars Jonsson (Islanders eventually traded up to #5 for Torres, so including Jonsson as the fifth guy here)
This one has been beaten to death. Perhaps the perfect storm for a bad pick here. Islanders unexpectedly won the lottery and moved from #5 to #1. Meanwhile DiPietro was a late addition to that draft class as he was originally slated for 2001, but gave up his college eligibility to enter a year early.
Simultaneously, the Devils were en route to winning the Cup with Brodeur's puckhandling prowess on display and many thought DiPietro might be even better in that regard. Also, the Islanders got new ownership who seemed to be very hands on with the selection. Unfortunately you heard stories about the new owners falling in love with DiPietro's "attitude" and "brashness" which maybe worked in the business world.
2000: Brent Krahn (9th overall) - Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev, Alexei Smirnov, Ron Hainsey, Vaclav Nedorost
This pick is usually unfairly pinned on Craig Button. Button was hired by Calgary as GM a couple weeks beforehand on the condition that Button would remain with Dallas through the draft process. So this pick was made by Calgary's incumbent staff.
Krahn didn't pan out, but only Hainsey out of that group became an regular NHLer.
2001: Pascal Leclaire (8th overall), Dan Blackburn (10th overall) - Tuomo Ruutu, Fredrik Sjostrom, Dan Hamhuis, Ales Hemsky, Chuck Kobasew, Igor Knyazev
Injuries doomed Leclaire's career over time. A freak injury abruptly ended Blackburn's career. Despite the ugly stats, Blackburn looked pretty good as a young goalie thrown to the wolves. Obviously Hamhuis, Ruutu, and Hemsky have churned out above average NHL careers.
2002: Kari Lehtonen (2nd overall) - Jay Bouwmeester, Joni Pitkanen, Ryan Whitney, Scottie Upshall, Joffrey Lupul, Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Technically Atlanta received a 3rd round pick to not pick Bouwmeester, so he was never a consideration for them. Injuries limited Lehtonen but nobody has questioned his ability.
2003: Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall) - Eric Staal, Nathan Horton, Nik Zherdev, Thomas Vanek, Milan Michalek
In hindsight they probably go in a different direction, but Fleury does have a Cup to his credit.
2004: Al Montoya (6th overall) - Rusty Olesz, Alex Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik, Lauri Tukonen
Took awhile for Montoya to establish himself as a backup, but he hardly the only 2004 top 10 pick that didn't meet expectations. Outside of Smid, I think all of these guys were available off the scrap heap.
2005: Carey Price (5th overall) - Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon
Many of us were shocked that Montreal passed on Brule. I'd imagine that Price is the first guy you'd take off that list today (RIP Bourdon).
The tendency is to cherry pick names, but if you list out the goalies with the other players taken immediately after them, it usually isn't that bad. Or at least, not "Pejorative Slured".
