Goaltenders are rarely worthy of top picks because of the relative unpredictability of their position. And I think GMs around the league have finally learned that it's not worth it to gamble taking a goalie in the top half of the first round.
For young players playing against similarly aged peers, it's much, much easier to get by on skill alone. However, unlike players, skill alone for goalies only takes you so far. Especially when you get to the pro leagues, the difference in pure talent between a quality starter and a backup is very, very small. At that point, it comes down to having exceptionally high competitiveness, elite mental toughness, and supreme confidence-- three qualities that are extremely hard (impossible, almost) to judge when observing teenagers playing against their peers.
For example, I consider Fleury to be among the NHL's most talented netminders. However, the difference in talent between him and a less talented starter is more than made up by the mental aspect. For skaters, the same is true but to a much lesser extent. Supremely talented players are still effective because they are just so much more skilled than other players. Of course, you still have many skaters who are extremely talented but still never overcome that mental barrier; that's what busts are made of.
So I think GMs are starting to come around on this realization, and I think that contributed to Fucale's fall. Not many would question his talent level, but does he have the elite mental ability that it takes to succeed in the NHL as a goaltender? We won't know for a little while.
So for me, I will never be excited by a goaltender who dominates in juniors. Until he proves his worth against professionals, my expectation of any goaltender will be tempered. So unless there is a teenage goaltender playing lights out hockey in the KHL, Swedish league, etc., I'd refrain from using a first round pick on him.
EDIT: This would also explain why it takes longer to "develop" goaltenders. It's not so much that there aren't 18 or 19 year olds who could step in right away; it's that you just don't know which ones those are until those mental abilities manifest themselves. That doesn't happen until they are playing consistently at the higher levels.
