Goals vs. Assists: If you had to weight them, how would you?

[filinski77]

Why compare two players when one is 2 years older and has played many more games? That's illogical.

You are also adding parameters that weren't initially given.

You clearly don't understand.

Regardless of /gp metrics, what I illustrated is that even though Crosby had more points, he had LESS goals that he played some part of his team scoring (which includes situations where he might have been the 3rd/4th/5th assist on). The NHL arbitrarily chose 2 assists - and that's how you're basing "contributed to goals" based on.

 

[rogking65]

Do you want to provide an actual educated response to why you feel that is wrong or just leave it with your comment?

few reasons
1. for an assist to be awarded a goal has to be scored but there are many unassisted goals scored
2. no player has 1000 career goals, many have 1000 points
3. many assists are earned on shots from the point that is going wide of the net but a deflection from the side directs it into net
4.; a goalie passes the puck to a player inside his blueline and that player carries it into zone and passes to another player who scores. What exactly did that goalie do to deserve an assist ?

 

[WarriorofTime]

There’s like 1.7 assists per goal iirc. So without diving into specifics on an individualized basis, roughly just apply that ratio.

 

[HansonBro]

To receive a point, a goal needs to happen in any case.

Player A has 999 goals and player B has 1000 points. Give me player B every single time.

What if player A has 999 SHG and player B has 1000 points on empty net goals. Does that move the goal posts for you?

Obviously its unrealistic, but proves that context matters

 

[filinski77]

It's too bad the NHL doesn't track primary vs secondary assists. Primary assists are almost as valuable as goals while secondary assists often accrue to a player who handles the puck a lot in a team's offensive scheme.

The NHL does track this on their website.
Here are top-10 since lockout. The 2 assists are arbitrary, and if the NHL only did 1 assist like soccer, nobody would care (just like nobody now cares about 3 assists not existing). If the NHL had only primary assists and goals, we'd see a different list that showed Ovi, Stamkos, Tavares and McDavid moving up spots. If the NHL had tertiary assists, the list would also likely look different, and if it allowed assisting on your own goal, the list would also look different.

I like to look at Backstrom as a playmaker. You might look at him vs. Crosby and see that Crosby has about a 14% higher assist/gp stat. That would indicate that Crosby is a bit ahead of Backtrom as a playmaker. But when you dig in and see that Backstom had a tonnnn of secondary assists, and that Crosby is 34% higher in primary assists per game, that more accurately illustrates Crosby's ability as a playmaker over Backstrom to me.

 

[koyvoo]

TJ was just as valuable to that Washington team as was Nick Backstrom. Goals!

 

[Signupnow]

1.629865 / 1

This is the answer here. It is 2 assist per goal which makes piling up assists and easier feat. So breaking down the goal difference here we could simply add 443 more points to Ovechkins point totals making him sit at 1926 points adjusted in comparisons to Crosbys 1,676 using the same metric.

Id say ovie is more impressive than secondary Sid.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

 

[kugelbahn]

I think it's safe to say that most people believe goals are a more valuable stat than assists, but I'm curious how much more people think.

You expect HF users to apply causality statistical analysis?
For majority - calculating PPG is the most advanced thing they could do.
"Every goal's assist leads to a goal on that assist!"

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

What if player A has 999 SHG and player B has 1000 points on empty net goals. Does that move the goal posts for you?

Obviously its unrealistic, but proves that context matters

Yes context obviously matters. But with no context in the scenario being presented, I would take the person with more points.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

You clearly don't understand.

Regardless of /gp metrics, what I illustrated is that even though Crosby had more points, he had LESS goals that he played some part of his team scoring (which includes situations where he might have been the 3rd/4th/5th assist on). The NHL arbitrarily chose 2 assists - and that's how you're basing "contributed to goals" based on.

He only has less goals that he contributed to and was on ice for because he has played a large amount less of games. That was clearly called out.

By the end of their careers Crosby will be ahead in all statistics except goals.

 

[Frank Drebin]

1 goal - 1 point
1 primary assist - 1 point
1 secondary assist - 1 point

Thats how I would do it.

 

[kugelbahn]

Hockey-reference uses 1 to 0.5 weights for G to A for calculation of their Goals Created and Point Shares advanced stats.

It is reasonable, but I would do weights:
1 to 0.5 to 0.25 to 0.125 for
G to A1 to A2 to GFA
where GFA is number of Goals player was on ice For where he did not register a Point: GFA = GF - P
GFA is to account for a "tail" of A3, A4 and "just was there, screening goalie with my butt" situations.

Primary Assists are also used a lot to throw away noisy A2s.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Goal at 100%
Primary assist at 75%
Secondary assist at 25%

Would be my rough ratio in terms of impact/importance. And yes there are examples or players who are outliers that break that but for the entirety of the league I think that’s fair.

 

[Midnight Judges]

He only has less goals that he contributed to and was on ice for because he has played a large amount less of games. That was clearly called out.

By the end of their careers Crosby will be ahead in all statistics except goals.

 

[TheLegend27]

To receive a point, a goal needs to happen in any case.

Player A has 999 goals and player B has 1000 points. Give me player B every single time.

Is that you Adam Oates?.

Crosby has 1,676 points… if Ovi had 1675 goals and zero assists he’d be called the greatest or second greatest player ever no doubt.

 

[Doom Bot]

There are about 60-70% more assists than there are goals. Statistically that shows that goals are more valuable and hard to accumulate. This is further ilustrated from the qualitative understanding that the primary objective of hockey is to score goals.

Realistically, I'm on board with a primary assist = a goal, but secondary assists do not have the same value to me as goals do. The 2nd assist is arbitrary and if the NHL decided to never count them back in the day, nobody would really bat an eye - similar to how most soccer leagues don't count secondary assists, and similar to how we don't see people here advocating for tertiary assists.

I agree that sometimes the primary or secondary assist can be more fundamental to the goal. But the reality is that the further you go down the chain: Goal -> primary assist -> secondar assist -> tertiary assist -> 4th assist etc. the less impactful or meaningful that play or pass goes towards the final outcome which is the goal.

I will take a guy that is 80 goals, 20 assists over the 20 goal, 80 assist guy. Therefore also logical to say that I would still take the 80 goal (100 point) guy over the 20 goal (110 point) guy even if he had 10 more points.

Who do you take between 2021-22 Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin

 

[Fantomas]

There are about 60-70% more assists than there are goals. Statistically that shows that goals are more valuable and hard to accumulate.

"But sometimes an assist is more important hurr durr"

 

[kugelbahn]

"But sometimes an assist is more important hurr durr"

Yeah, I still remember youtube video of beautiful Crosby assist on Tyler Kennedy goal, presented as evidence that A2 = G in similar thread.

Anybody has youtube video of top 10 Sid's secondary assists by chance?

 

[Randyne]

plant a tree on the rink center and it would have 100+ assists every season

 

[K1900L]

It also depends on the type of goal scorer and his shooting percentage.
Is he static? Is his shot selection in need of improvement even if he scores many goals?

If player A scores 40 goals with a percentage of 15% and player B scores 30 goals with a percentage of 20% but has 20 more assists because he decides to make a pass instead of shooting the puck in the correct situations, who is more valuable to his team?

If taking a shot in situation X over and over again will lead to 10 goals and 0 assists, whereas only taking the shot half the time and passing/circling the puck the other times leads to 6 goals and 6 assists, how is the first alternative superior?

Also, the quality of assists varies. Are we talking about a Draisaitl backhand sauce or Kucherov splitting the defense, or are we talking about a defenseman taking a slap-shot repeatedly?

Many factors play a role.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Is that you Adam Oates?.

Crosby has 1,676 points… if Ovi had 1675 goals and zero assists he’d be called the greatest or second greatest player ever no doubt

1 goal - 1 point
1 primary assist - 1 point
1 secondary assist - 1 point

Thats how I would do it.

That’s how a rational brain would interpret as well. But here we are.

 

[Frank Drebin]

That’s how a rational brain would interpret as well. But here we are.

Ideally we could filter and sort them individually. One day.

 

[filinski77]

Who do you take between 2021-22 Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin

Do you think this is some kind of “gotcha” moment? Did you even read my analysis? I don’t know where you are correlating the Kreider vs Panarin debate to anything I said. I never said anything to suggest that regardless of MASSIVE point differences I still think the goalscorer is better.

That year, Panarin was on pace for 106 points, Kreider for 78. That’s a crazy difference.

But I’ll entertain you even if you’re just being disingenuous. Panarin that year had paced for 71 primary points in 82 games. Kreider was on pace for 64 primary points.

So Panarin was on pace for 11% more primary points. Even if the NHL never invented 2nd assists, it would be clear Panarin contributed more.

 

[UED]

A goal is the same as a primary assist, a secondary assist isn't worth as much. If I had to choose I'd value the primary assist over the goal but who cares about the negligible difference between those two. I don't think secondary assists should actually be awarded, kinda strange, but never thought it was a big enough deal to fight against them either. Whatever! They're not totally useless, it suggests the player participated somewhat in the goal!