GDT: GM 47: Team Connor @ Team No-Connor - 9:08PM EST

[895]

I really enjoy the aw shucks humble smile LT does every time they compliment him in the gold chain ceremony.

 

[stephenball]

I don't like PDO very much because I don't think save percentage is a very useful stat.

That said, the way they're winning games isn't sustainable. My pipe dream TDL scenario continues to be an upgrade over Strome at 1C.

Strome isn’t even truly our 1C at the moment, PLD is our best center and his line is consistently the best line.

 

[895]

Whichever line has Protas is the first line.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Also, what is the matter with Bouchard? His defense is extra-sucky and he seems in Carlson-sativa mode on O

Good question, he was noticeably bad last night. Maybe just an off night, I don't watch the Oil much.

 

[qc14]

Re: complaining about how they're winning

Apologies in advance for the long post ...

I will start by saying of course winning is better than losing in all scenarios. I've very much liked their team D pretty much the entire season, and LT has been extremely good in every way -- the volume of saves, the timing, making some saves he probably shouldn't and not letting in any goals that he should save, etc.

I think it's pretty clear though that the first half of the season (to me, the Ovi injury was the first wobble, but the game in Chicago was the real turning point) they were not just winning but absolutely steamrolling teams. They were convincingly beating good teams and bad ones, at home and away, generating tons of looks and not giving up many to the other teams. Even some of their few losses, like away to Tampa or Dallas, were games that they largely dominated.

Of their 11 wins in the 17 games since then they've definitely had some good wins but how many of them did they really dominate play for? I'd probably only say the Anaheim and Pittsburgh games, and even then neither of them were to the extent of say the first win over NYR or both of the Vegas wins. They've also had some real stinkers of games that they basically never had in the first 30. SJS, Detroit, Chicago, Boston, Buffalo were all pretty embarrassing efforts where they were completely outplayed by some of the worst teams in the league.

For me, this has all been caused by a complete drop in their ability to generate offense. In their first 30 games pre-Chicago they were averaging ~29 shots per game. Since then, they're at ~23. At the start of the year, they were able to generate tons of the cycle in-zone but also with great transition play through the neutral zone and attacking on the rush. Their neutral zone play has fallen off a cliff and the clean rush looks have been few and far between, basically the only consistent source of offense has been low-to-high plays in-zone and defenseman shooting for tips.

I get the points about overpassing after getting into dangerous positions and lots of tips being blocked maybe more than they had in the first half, but those definitely do not account for all or even most of the drop off to me. I think a large amount of it can be attributed to the McMichael-Strome-Ovi combo. At the beginning of the year they all looked so in-sync -- connecting on every pass, reading so well off of everyone on the ice -- and the last 15 games have been the complete opposite. Ovi has many excuses and mitigating factors, but Strome and McMichael do not.

I also think that there have been structural changes in how they're playing. The D and forwards seem much more disconnected and physically further apart on the ice. This is especially noticeable to me on a set defensive neutral zone regroup, where our F1 will pressure the opponent's D all by themselves but the F2 and F3 are standing still towards the center circle and the D all the way back inside our own blue line. This allows 1 pass or move to beat 2 or 3 guys cleanly and leaves or D back on an island defending tough rush chances from basically a standstill. Is Carbery doing this on purpose? I don't know but it's gone on long enough that if it isn't he's done a poor job fixing it.

Part of the reason that I'm harping on their play so much though is that I've seen them look really, really, really good for a pretty significant stretch of games at the start of the year. I think this team has the capability to be more than just a one-off surprise that goes out in the first or second round and can actually make a deep run. I also think that NHL history has shown that how they are currently playing is a recipe for going out quickly in the playoffs either to an upstart wildcard team or to a very good and complete team in Carolina or New Jersey. I also think that there's an interesting, balanced way to be critical of how the team is currently playing that is not the blatant clickbaiting or even trolling of certain blog sites.

TLDR: both the stats and the eye test have suggested that they were playing amazingly well to start the year and mediocre to bad since, and I would rather this team not be a 13-14 Avalanche!

 

[um]

Puck defending offensiveman.

Its the new adv stat in fashion that the kids like to throw up there. And because the Canucks of last year fitted the narrative, its now known as "the actual meter of success in long term".

"As a statistic, PDO is simple – shooting percentage plus save percentage. While that might not seem like much, this statistic is attempting to capture “puck luck” with a number, a proxy measure of how fortunate a team or player is."

PDO concetrates on the fact that hockey involves a lot of luck, and in long term the luck evens out. Kind of. But what we old timers like to say, "you earn the puck luck!" so I think we two atleast can go on with our lives and ignore that Capitals is PDO-sweetheart and will balance out back to mediocre team when PDO evens out - and instead just say we have the best goalie in the world and we are doing a lot of bodywork to earn tip in/deflection goals, and theres no reason that wont go on forever.

Im old too, so its possible that I dont get it either, though.

It's weird that people shit all over last years Canucks, who beat a red hot Nashville team and than took the Oilers to 7 games despite several injuries. It's not like they imploded.

Good shot selection and good goalies are real things.

 

[Roshi]

It's weird that people shit all over last years Canucks, who beat a red hot Nashville team and than took the Oilers to 7 games despite several injuries. It's not like they imploded.

Good shot selection and good goalies are real things.

Fully agreed, but the focus is also that they arent as good this year -> result of PDO balance.

Id take a close look at their locker room though, which is falling apart rapidly. They couldnt handle the pressure of being a good team and completely lost it. Losing confidence and focusing on fighting each other instead of playing as a team on ice.

That can easily happen to us too, we are definately enjoying the shelf life of a fresh new coach and new guys making the most out of it and those vibes can wear out. But i like to choose being optimistic. And we have a lot of fresh faces coming in the next years that can inject even more positivity around.

Whats going for us too is that we are four lines, three pairs and two goalies deep on the cycle at the moment. When one line is having quieter scretch the next one steps up. I feel like Canucks was more top heavy last year and again, their top two forwards battling for the alfa-status is not helping them..

 

[um]

Fully agreed, but the focus is also that they arent as good this year -> result of PDO balance.

Id take a close look at their locker room though, which is falling apart rapidly. They couldnt handle the pressure of being a good team and completely lost it. Losing confidence and focusing on fighting each other instead of playing as a team on ice.

That can easily happen to us too, we are definately enjoying the shelf life of a fresh new coach and new guys making the most out of it and those vibes can wear out. But i like to choose being optimistic. And we have a lot of fresh faces coming in the next years that can inject even more positivity around.

Whats going for us too is that we are four lines, three pairs and two goalies deep on the cycle at the moment. When one line is having quieter scretch the next one steps up. I feel like Canucks was more top heavy last year and again, their top two forwards battling for the alfa-status is not helping them..

I think Demko going down hurt them big time too. Thompson going down would knock us down a few pegs as well.

But it's weird how quickly they came apart, they are currently only 1 point out of the playoffs. I gotta believe our locker room isn't that shit.