Speculation: Global Cap Space Available

[Stephen]

So going into the 2022-23 season, the NHL salary cap is set at $82.5 million per team. With 32 teams in the league, global NHL salaries is $2.654 billion if every team spends to the cap.

Ignoring rookie bonuses and LTIR situations, has anyone run the numbers of unfilled projected 23 man rosters and the remaining amount of cap space available in the league?

I know Capfriendly is extremely detailed but I don’t think I’ve seen that summary. Would be kind of an interesting situation if the league actually ran out of cap space during this flat cap era…

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[PostBradMalone]

This is why the players were extremely dumb not to allow for a compliance buyout as the league was returning from COVID. Seemingly everyone could see this coming except the PA, and now all classes of player- star, journeyman, young guns- are facing an enormous cap crunch.

 

[TheNumber4]

The NHLPA is failing the players. Owners are lapping up new revenue streams from Gambling, Huge TV deals, Shamless advertising on Helmets and Jersies. The NHLPA can’t even be bother to fight for 3.2M Cap that just disappeared into thin air and out of players pockets this year. Don Fehr is a joke.

 

[Stephen]

It just seems like such a 2022 problem that we’ll get reasonably close to maxing out the cap systemwide and players could be looking at stagnant salaries while franchise values skyrocket.

 

[ManofSteel55]

So going into the 2022-23 season, the NHL salary cap is set at $82.5 million per team. With 32 teams in the league, global NHL salaries is $2.654 billion if every team spends to the cap.

Ignoring rookie bonuses and LTIR situations, has anyone run the numbers of unfilled projected 23 man rosters and the remaining amount of cap space available in the league?

I know Capfriendly is extremely detailed but I don’t think I’ve seen that summary. Would be kind of an interesting situation if the league actually ran out of cap space during this flat cap era…

It's not especially accurate, but if you plug in the CapFriendly "Projected Cap Hit" numbers into Excel and ad them all together, you get $2,258,411,334, s that would be 381.5M. Seems like an awful lot of money when you just look at the number, but
10 teams are showing with 10M+ cap space. Anaheim is 10M under the cap floor, Arizona is under 2M under the floor but there are 12 teams that are basically capped out (not counting LTIR stuff), meaning they don't have enough cap to sign a player to league minimum. A lot of teams are out of the picture financially, and a handful of cheap teams are sitting there with piles of money hoping to take advantage of desperate GM's looking to shed some cash. And Calgary is sitting there with tons of space from losing Gaudreau, but they haven't been playing the "we'll take your marginal players for futures" game. Not yet.

 

[Cogburn]

I've got about 180 million in cap space this year, without injury reserve usage.

We have 82 NHL roster spot, based on 32 teams with 23 spots each, less the number of signed contracts in these spots (654).

Yes, this doesn't count buried or ELC sliding or minor contracts, but I don't see the league running out of space yet.

 

[GAGLine]

This is why the players were extremely dumb not to allow for a compliance buyout as the league was returning from COVID. Seemingly everyone could see this coming except the PA, and now all classes of player- star, journeyman, young guns- are facing an enormous cap crunch.

Those buyouts would have counted against the player share.

 

[StreetHawk]

This is why the players were extremely dumb not to allow for a compliance buyout as the league was returning from COVID. Seemingly everyone could see this coming except the PA, and now all classes of player- star, journeyman, young guns- are facing an enormous cap crunch.

I don’t think enough owners wanted it. Because it would solely come out of the owners share of HRR like last time in 2013 but that was also due to the cap % for the players decreasing.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The NHLPA is failing the players. Owners are lapping up new revenue streams from Gambling, Huge TV deals, Shamless advertising on Helmets and Jersies. The NHLPA can’t even be bother to fight for 3.2M Cap that just disappeared into thin air and out of players pockets this year. Don Fehr is a joke.

Yes the PA is failing, they should have recommended pro rated salaries during 56 game season. Players did not want it, and the result is a flat cap for longer than was needed.

 

[Handshot]

The NHLPA is failing the players. Owners are lapping up new revenue streams from Gambling, Huge TV deals, Shamless advertising on Helmets and Jersies. The NHLPA can’t even be bother to fight for 3.2M Cap that just disappeared into thin air and out of players pockets this year. Don Fehr is a joke.

The players owe money to the owners still. If anything the NHLPA did well to keep the players fully paid through a pandemic where seasons were significantly shortened with minimal attendance. Once that debt is paid off the cap will absolutely skyrocket

 

[Connor McConnor]

What'd people expect after the Owners bit the bullet during the COVID period of limited/no attendance? The players were gonna be the ones paying for it for atleast a year. The cap should be coming up significantly over the next few years but really bad timing for some of the guys this year.

 

[Djp]

The NHLPA is failing the players. Owners are lapping up new revenue streams from Gambling, Huge TV deals, Shamless advertising on Helmets and Jersies. The NHLPA can’t even be bother to fight for 3.2M Cap that just disappeared into thin air and out of players pockets this year. Don Fehr is a joke.

the owners have to recoup loses from lack of ticket sales.

The players owe money to the owners still. If anything the NHLPA did well to keep the players fully paid through a pandemic where seasons were significantly shortened with minimal attendance. Once that debt is paid off the cap will absolutely skyrocket

The way the contracts are structured being guaranteed. Many team s aren’t going to do long term contracts except on a few until they feel we are past the Covid shut downs.

 

[Captain Mountain]

What'd people expect after the Owners bit the bullet during the COVID period of limited/no attendance? The players were gonna be the ones paying for it for atleast a year. The cap should be coming up significantly over the next few years but really bad timing for some of the guys this year.

There's no mechanism for the Owners to bite the bullet. The formula for the Upper and lower limits of team salary are set out in section 50.5 of the CBA. If the NHL and NHLPA did nothing, the cap would be much lower than it is now. The players are basically still paying back the cap space the owners gave them in 2020 to now.

 

[mouser]

This is why the players were extremely dumb not to allow for a compliance buyout as the league was returning from COVID. Seemingly everyone could see this coming except the PA, and now all classes of player- star, journeyman, young guns- are facing an enormous cap crunch.

The NHL didn't want compliance buyouts. It's not just a player thing.

 

[mouser]

I don’t think enough owners wanted it. Because it would solely come out of the owners share of HRR like last time in 2013 but that was also due to the cap % for the players decreasing.

Compliance buyouts come out the player share. The collective owners still didn't want it though.

 

[golffuul]

This is why the players were extremely dumb not to allow for a compliance buyout as the league was returning from COVID. Seemingly everyone could see this coming except the PA, and now all classes of player- star, journeyman, young guns- are facing an enormous cap crunch.

Not just COVID, but also year 1 of an expansion team that kept close to the floor, as well as multiple franchises who formerly spent to the Cap, settling back to their normal mid-range Cap status. This, along with a flat-cap, was just asking for trouble with escalating salaries and nowhere to really put them, because even if teams have space, not all of them are spending it.

 

[PAZ]

Not just COVID, but also year 1 of an expansion team that kept close to the floor, as well as multiple franchises who formerly spent to the Cap, settling back to their normal mid-range Cap status. This, along with a flat-cap, was just asking for trouble with escalating salaries and nowhere to really put them, because even if teams have space, not all of them are spending it.

I'm confused how you're arguing an expansion team, regardless of how much they spend, is a negative to the players and the league from an financial point of view.

 

[golffuul]

There's no mechanism for the Owners to bite the bullet. The formula for the Upper and lower limits of team salary are set out in section 50.5 of the CBA. If the NHL and NHLPA did nothing, the cap would be much lower than it is now. The players are basically still paying back the cap space the owners gave them in 2020 to now.

This is why the "elevators" were such a bad idea for the Players. Of course the owners offered it to them, it doesn't effect their bottom line whatsoever, because they can always reduce HRR with their "making whole" sharing revenues with failing owners.

 

[golffuul]

I'm confused how you're arguing an expansion team, regardless of how much they spend, is a negative to the players and the league from an financial point of view.

Because if it is a "normal" team with a normal revenue stream (instead of lots of incurred losses due to expansion fees, infrastructure, etc), then they would have more revenue to draw from on a normal year to year basis. Instead, there is a delayed mechanism in place where the expansion fees and a normalized revenue stream aren't realized for multiple years...meanwhile for the rest of the owners, it's business as usual. So the players don't immediately realize any of the revenue, and even less so because they aren't spending on player salaries at a normal rate that the rest of the league does.

 

[PAZ]

Because if it is a "normal" team with a normal revenue stream (instead of lots of incurred losses due to expansion fees, infrastructure, etc), then they would have more revenue to draw from on a normal year to year basis. Instead, there is a delayed mechanism in place where the expansion fees and a normalized revenue stream aren't realized for multiple years...meanwhile for the rest of the owners, it's business as usual. So the players don't immediately realize any of the revenue, and even less so because they aren't spending on player salaries at a normal rate that the rest of the league does.

IIRC the revenue generated from the expansion fee went towards the cap, did it not? Assuming it did, I still have a hard time seeing an argument that an extra team, regardless of of it being an expansion team, has a negative impact for the players. At worst it's an extra ~50-60 mil in total cap space.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

This is why the players were extremely dumb not to allow for a compliance buyout as the league was returning from COVID. Seemingly everyone could see this coming except the PA, and now all classes of player- star, journeyman, young guns- are facing an enormous cap crunch.

Why would the players not want it? It’s literally a lottery ticket. Get bought out, get your money from that contract still and then sign another contract to get double paid.

 

[golffuul]

IIRC the revenue generated from the expansion fee went towards the cap, did it not? Assuming it did, I still have a hard time seeing an argument that an extra team, regardless of of it being an expansion team, has a negative impact for the players. At worst it's an extra ~50-60 mil in total cap space.

So the Expansion Revenue isn't realized until the Escrow is paid off. That's when the new US TV Deal and the Expansion Fee will jump into the HRR. Which is why the 25-26 Salary Cap is expected to be significantly higher that year.

As it pertains to an expansion team. While 50-60 M of total cap space is added to the league, in terms of average salaries for players, it creates a greater imbalance where you get a larger number of higher paid players but a significantly greater number of players who are hovering around the League Minimum. So while that total money is increased, the average salary is reduced because the extra 20-30M of Cap isn't being realized by Seattle, in terms of player salaries. Same with Arizona, Nashville, Islanders, and Anaheim. Because they aren't spending to the same rate that they did 3+ years ago, the total cap space actually goes negative regardless of the increase from Seattle. Add one more team, as a divisor, to the total Cap Space used, and the players see a negative impact for the next several years, but more importantly starting this past season...when Seattle entered the League. But that will all go away, once Escrow is made whole and things go back to normal.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Based purely on the live numbers on Cap Friendly right now, I count:


$196.545M in cap space from teams below the cap... Then $23.720M it teams that are over the cap. So if you get every team above, below the $82.5M you'd be looking at ~$172.8M in space right now. That said, obviously LTIR players will have an impact on that and no doubt Cap friendly doesn't have every roster perfectly setup at the moment either, some prospects will make the NHL, some veterans could end up buried, etc. etc. For example Colorado's roster on cap friendly has Ben Meyers in the AHL but he'll clearly be an NHL guy this year, on the flip side they have Andreas Englund on our NHL roster, he's 99% to be an AHL guy to start the year. Lots of changes from every team between now and then.

There's also by my count, assuming every team goes with a full 23 man roster... 74 open spots remaining.

There's still quite a few UFAs left to sign as well that will eat a decent chunk of that $172M in cap space. Kadri and Klingberg alone could very well end up taking 10% of that space. Plus there's still some guys like Rodriguez, Bergeron, Heinen, Kessel...

And then there's a bunch of RFAs as well. Tkachuk and Bratt will certainly eat 10% of that $172M combined. Then you've still got the likes of Mangiapane, Robertson, Crouse, Zacha, Puljujarvi, etc. etc. Long story short is there's very little cap space in general available right now. I think the remaining RFAs alone probably eat up ~$125M if not more of that space.


And the thing is, not all teams are going to be salary cap teams either. Arizona will almost certainly be a cap floor team, a number of other teams haven't shown any interest in being near the cap for a number of years either now. Buffalo is $19.6M below the cap with a 22 man roster, they aren't spending all that money or even close at this stage. Anaheim is still $8.5M below the Floor even... Now they do have 6 roster spots to fill(And I'd be willing to be at this point they're probably one of the only teams remaining that are willing to take on a major cap dump, but they're probably asking for a very high price to take that dump), but they certainly wont spend to the cap either.



So, for the teams that are trying to move cap right now, its incredibly difficult to do so it would appear... Judging by the Bjorkstrand trade today, its going to be ridiculously expensive to outright dump a bad contract. Bjorkstrand is a legitimately good player and CBJ basically had to give him away for free.


Teams like Toronto, Vegas, and even Colorado right now if they want to sign Kadri, or the Islanders if they want Kadri... Those teams are gonna have to pay a lot to move cap, or dump a really good player for literally pennies on the dollar.

 

[deckercky]

Based purely on the live numbers on Cap Friendly right now, I count:


$196.545M in cap space from teams below the cap... Then $23.720M it teams that are over the cap. So if you get every team above, below the $82.5M you'd be looking at ~$172.8M in space right now. That said, obviously LTIR players will have an impact on that and no doubt Cap friendly doesn't have every roster perfectly setup at the moment either, some prospects will make the NHL, some veterans could end up buried, etc. etc. For example Colorado's roster on cap friendly has Ben Meyers in the AHL but he'll clearly be an NHL guy this year, on the flip side they have Andreas Englund on our NHL roster, he's 99% to be an AHL guy to start the year. Lots of changes from every team between now and then.

There's also by my count, assuming every team goes with a full 23 man roster... 74 open spots remaining.

There's still quite a few UFAs left to sign as well that will eat a decent chunk of that $172M in cap space. Kadri and Klingberg alone could very well end up taking 10% of that space. Plus there's still some guys like Rodriguez, Bergeron, Heinen, Kessel...

And then there's a bunch of RFAs as well. Tkachuk and Bratt will certainly eat 10% of that $172M combined. Then you've still got the likes of Mangiapane, Robertson, Crouse, Zacha, Puljujarvi, etc. etc. Long story short is there's very little cap space in general available right now. I think the remaining RFAs alone probably eat up ~$125M if not more of that space.


And the thing is, not all teams are going to be salary cap teams either. Arizona will almost certainly be a cap floor team, a number of other teams haven't shown any interest in being near the cap for a number of years either now. Buffalo is $19.6M below the cap with a 22 man roster, they aren't spending all that money or even close at this stage. Anaheim is still $8.5M below the Floor even... Now they do have 6 roster spots to fill(And I'd be willing to be at this point they're probably one of the only teams remaining that are willing to take on a major cap dump, but they're probably asking for a very high price to take that dump), but they certainly wont spend to the cap either.



So, for the teams that are trying to move cap right now, its incredibly difficult to do so it would appear... Judging by the Bjorkstrand trade today, its going to be ridiculously expensive to outright dump a bad contract. Bjorkstrand is a legitimately good player and CBJ basically had to give him away for free.


Teams like Toronto, Vegas, and even Colorado right now if they want to sign Kadri, or the Islanders if they want Kadri... Those teams are gonna have to pay a lot to move cap, or dump a really good player for literally pennies on the dollar.

This post is the right type of analysis. Be interesting to go through every player and apply the lowest projected cap hit from Dobber Hockey to the unsigned qualified RFAs, factoring out anticipated LTIR (for example, clearing Backstrom's contract means Washington technically still could add salary).

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

This post is the right type of analysis. Be interesting to go through every player and apply the lowest projected cap hit from Dobber Hockey to the unsigned qualified RFAs, factoring out anticipated LTIR (for example, clearing Backstrom's contract means Washington technically still could add salary).

I think what we would ultimately discover is that... Something simply has to give across the league in order for everything to work.


I just ran some very quick rough estimates of the top RFAs from Capfriendly... And just from the Top ~25 guys, you're looking at ~$85M in cap. Then on the UFA side the Top ~5 guys are getting ~$25M as well, so that would be $110M spent and still over 40 RFAs to sign and another 10-15 UFAs that would be getting more then league minmum at least.



Something's gonna have to give. Will be very interesting to see what unfolds. The cost to move a bad contract must be absolutely absurd right now. I can imagine Arizona being offered like a 1st + prospect just to take on say $3M in bad cap, and having management try to convince the owners of that team right now to say yes to the $3M.