Friedman: Gibson is interested in Carolina or Edmonton

[MessierThanThou]

an .888% SV percentage is terrible no matter which team is in front of you.


I'm just saying that goalies are voodoo, and that a goalie who has one good season after 5 bad ones is not the answer. I would trust Gibson in the playoffs as much as I trust Skinner.

I agree. An .888 is bad. Skinner has an .885 in his last nine games.

The cup window is closing. We should be going after someone who is good NOW. That's what matters. What's to say Gibson won't be this good next season? What's to say Skinner won't be on waivers? Because that's where we're trending right now if they maintain the same level of play...

 

[FiveTacos]

an .888% SV percentage is terrible no matter which team is in front of you.

The Ducks were the worst defensive team in history just two years ago. It was compounded by the fact that they also had a horrific offense that almost never had the puck.

Just because the Oilers are contenders doesn't mean they play good defense.

They sure as hell play vastly better defense than the Ducks have in recent years by almost any measurement you choose.

If you want to argue that the Oilers' D is in any way comparable to a team that averaged 40 shots against per game, then I would suggest that the Oilers should have no business being considered a contender regardless of who is in net.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Just a fun little update...

GSAx (minimum 20 Games):
Skinner - 39th (out of 49 goalies)
Gibson - 6th

GSAx per 60 (minimum 20 Games):
Skinner - 38th
Gibson - 3rd

Skinner has 14 games below an objectively bad .870 save percentage, for a total of 37% of his games. He's been under .800 for five games.
Gibson has had 5 games below an objectively bad .870 save percentage, for a total of 21% of his games.

Skinner has 17 games below .900 for a total of 45% of his games. So Skinner has been under .900 for almost half of his games this season...
Gibson has had 8 games below .900 for a total of 33% of his games.

Just because the Oilers are contenders doesn't mean they play good defense.

So explain why his GSAx was still bad when they were playing good defense and even when they remained a top 5 team in the league in defensive metrics?

Read this article and have fun learning: Why the Oilers would be taking a significant gamble if they stick with their current goaltending tandem

 

[KCC]

Gibson injured now. Losing him beyond the deadline to injury would be chef’s kiss after all the Ducks fans stomping their feet about how he is untouchable.

It's pretty much day to day anyways. He'll be fine.

 

[Rubi]

Objectively the smartest thing the Oilers could do this season is trade for Gibson. Emotionally, as a long time Flames fan, I hope they don't... but then that's just my schadenfreude kicking in.

 

[nturn06]

The Ducks were the worst defensive team in history just two years ago. It was compounded by the fact that they also had a horrific offense that almost never had the puck.

Yet, somehow Dostal was .902% with exactly the same worst defensive team in the history.

Again, no matter how bad the defense is, .888% is not a good save percentage.

 

[belair]

The ducks never had a window to move him because they’ve had no interest in moving him.

I'm sure they've had interest in moving him. They've simply been unwilling to do what's necessary to move his less than favorable contract.

 

[Three On Zero]

I'm sure they've had interest in moving him. They've simply been unwilling to do what's necessary to move his less than favorable contract.

Nothing wrong with his contact

 

[nturn06]

I agree. An .888 is bad. Skinner has an .885 in his last nine games.

The cup window is closing. We should be going after someone who is good NOW. That's what matters. What's to say Gibson won't be this good next season? What's to say Skinner won't be on waivers? Because that's where we're trending right now if they maintain the same level of play...

My point is that Gibson was good for what? 15 games this season? After being subpar for 5 straight seasons, just because he had few good games does not mean he will keep playing like this.

If I remember right, he was about .905 the first half of the last season, and then crashed and burned.

 

[belair]

Nothing wrong with his contact

Most teams prefer paying less than $6.4m for a split starting goalie. And it's been a while since he's been a league average starter.

 

[Three On Zero]

Most teams prefer paying less than $6.4m for a split starting goalie. And it's been a while since he's been a league average starter.

And Anaheim has no worries or need to move his contract. If the team you play for has no issues with your contract, it’s a fine contract.

Let’s not try to spin some new false narrative that Anaheim has being trying to sell off Gibson for years and can’t move him because of his contract

 

[belair]

And Anaheim has no worries or need to move his contract. If the team you play for has no issues with your contract, it’s a fine contract.

Let’s not try to spin some new false narrative that Anaheim has being trying to sell off Gibson for years and can’t move him because of his contract

It's not a new narrative whatsoever. Anaheim has been open to talks regarding Gibson dating back years. Gibson himself has been vocal about his preference to be an uncontested starter and to play for a contender.

$6.4m cap hit with two years left on the term, a 10-team NTC, the injury history and years of less than average production all play a part in why the ask will likely need to favor the buyer.

 

[FiveTacos]

Yet, somehow Dostal was .902% with exactly the same worst defensive team in the history.

By and large Gibson as the presumptive starter had the honor of drawing most of the tougher opponents. Regardless, it's not as if .902 is an amazing number either ... but like Gibson it's better than it looks given the situation.

Regardless, it seems the argument now is that Gibson's improved play as the Ducks' D gets better is irrelevant, and that his value should be based on his stats behind some of the worst teams in history. If that's the case, then clearly there isn't enough return to justify trading him ... again, better off just keeping him. The suggestion that they should unload him for practically nothing ... that makes no sense.

Most teams prefer paying less than $6.4m for a split starting goalie.

The Ducks most likely retain some, if for no other reason than to keep up with the cap floor. Unlikely someone would be asked to take on all 6.4m.

If even 3.2m or 4.8m is too rich for you, then you're gonna have a hard time finding any sort of decent starter in a league where the top goalies are now in the 8 figure range.

And it's been a while since he's been a league average starter.

He's one of the best in the league this year, well above average. The Ducks are flirting with .500 for one reason only ... their goaltending. It sure isn't because of their offense (last in GF/g) or their team defense (most SA/g).

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Just a fun little update...

GSAx (minimum 20 Games):
Skinner - 39th (out of 49 goalies)
Gibson - 6th

GSAx per 60 (minimum 20 Games):
Skinner - 38th
Gibson - 3rd

Skinner has 14 games below an objectively bad .870 save percentage, for a total of 37% of his games. He's been under .800 for five games.
Gibson has had 5 games below an objectively bad .870 save percentage, for a total of 21% of his games.

Skinner has 17 games below .900 for a total of 45% of his games. So Skinner has been under .900 for almost half of his games this season...
Gibson has had 8 games below .900 for a total of 33% of his games.


So explain why his GSAx was still bad when they were playing good defense and even when they remained a top 5 team in the league in defensive metrics?

Read this article and have fun learning: Why the Oilers would be taking a significant gamble if they stick with their current goaltending tandem

They are one of the worst teams against the rush. They are literally letting the best players from the opposing team to walk into the slot uncontested or give up breakaways and odd man rushes all game long.

The current tandem aren't saviours but bringing in a new goalie isn't going to fix Bouchard's giveaways or brutal turnovers at the blueline, ect. Especially when the Oilers are low on assets and desperately need to improve in other areas.

Oilers are fantastic at defending down low against the cycle and breaking out of the zone and the analytics show that. However, they have poor puck management are terrible at defending the home plate area especially against the rush. This has been a problem all season long but the most recent examples include

1st Ovechkin goal today
The Michkov and 1st Tippett goal yesterday
The Lehkonen and Makar goals before the break.

Oilers playing better defensively fixes alot of what plagues the team right now.

 

[Three On Zero]

It's not a new narrative whatsoever. Anaheim has been open to talks regarding Gibson dating back years. Gibson himself has been vocal about his preference to be an uncontested starter and to play for a contender.

$6.4m cap hit with two years left on the term, a 10-team NTC, the injury history and years of less than average production all play a part in why the ask will likely need to favor the buyer.

The only talks they’ve been open to is “you want him? You’re going pay a premium for him”. That has nothing to do with his contract, it’s a team whom is comfortable and willing to facilitate a trade for the right price.

 

[MessierThanThou]

The current tandem aren't saviours but bringing in a new goalie isn't going to fix Bouchard's giveaways or brutal turnovers at the blueline, ect. Especially when the Oilers are low on assets and desperately need to improve in other areas.

And you don't think getting goalies above 61st and 79th in GSAx will stop those shots from going in? It's just all Bouchard's fault! Even when he's not on the ice and the current tandem lets in total muffins? Last year it was all Nurse's fault, this year it's Bouchard's, but no, never Skinner's...the one constant.. I would laugh if it wasn't so depressing to know that far too many of you actually believe this. I'm honestly embarrassed for the Oilers fanbase and wish about half of them would just go cheer on the Flames instead.

The current tandem is one of the worst in GSAx. They have had poor numbers pretty much all season save for a 7 game stretch where Skinner looked like an NHL goalie, and even then it wasn't enough to get him to league average. A better goalie could make those saves our current tandem can't. It makes logical sense and is backed up by so much more data than what you shared...which lacked anything in the way of numbers or tangible stats, just "goalies shouldn't be expected to stop turnovers or giveaways ever...it's all Bouchard's fault." Stop listening to Gregor and the other Edmonton media clowns...it's all bullshit and it's bad for you!

Also...

For goalies who have played a minimum of 20 games, Skinner is 39th out of 49 in GSAx. Pickard is 43rd out of 49. None of the goalies below them are on teams in playoff spots, and two of them are currently back in the minors (Jarry and Grubauer). But oh no, none of this can possibly be the fault of the goalies...

 

[MessierThanThou]

My point is that Gibson was good for what? 15 games this season? After being subpar for 5 straight seasons, just because he had few good games does not mean he will keep playing like this.

If I remember right, he was about .905 the first half of the last season, and then crashed and burned.

Except we're now almost 75% into the season and Gibson has been consistently good. Skinner is in the bottom half of the league in GSAx: 39 out of 49 goalies who have played at least 20 games...Gibson is third. The only goalies below Skinner are on teams out of playoff spots or in the minors... and Skinner was near the absolute bottom of the league early on, so we know he can get worse.

Yet, somehow Dostal was .902% with exactly the same worst defensive team in the history.

Again, no matter how bad the defense is, .888% is not a good save percentage.

Yes, and again, no matter how bad the defense is, .885 is not a good save percentage and that's been Skinner's average over the last nine games. And at one point this season he was near the very bottom in the entire league. Last season is irrelevant, as is the season before, what matters is how well a goalie is playing right now, otherwise Tristan Jarry would still be a starting NHL netminder and not playing in the AHL.

 

[Rasp]

It's not a new narrative whatsoever. Anaheim has been open to talks regarding Gibson dating back years. Gibson himself has been vocal about his preference to be an uncontested starter and to play for a contender.

$6.4m cap hit with two years left on the term, a 10-team NTC, the injury history and years of less than average production all play a part in why the ask will likely need to favor the buyer.

Anaheim is interested in assets that will help the rebuild not in getting rid of his contract. The only trade that happens is one that Anaheim sees as favorable in improving the teams rebuild. Losing Gibson's cap hit isn't that.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Objectively the smartest thing the Oilers could do this season is trade for Gibson. Emotionally, as a long time Flames fan, I hope they don't... but then that's just my schadenfreude kicking in.

You would be surprised at how many oblivious Oiler fans are opposed to this idea and some actually blaming one defenseman for both goalies being terrible.

 

[belair]

Anaheim is interested in assets that will help the rebuild not in getting rid of his contract. The only trade that happens is one that Anaheim sees as favorable in improving the teams rebuild. Losing Gibson's cap hit isn't that.

Anaheim gives zero ducks about his cap hit. They do, however, mind the salary if they end up giving Dostal the job and the contract after this season.

I think if Gibson is moved, you'll see retention. I also think you'll see Anaheim take back short term salary. And I don't think the ask will be as significant as many believe it to be. The market just doesn't show it being realistic.

 

[Gliff]

Similar to the Zegras threads:

"We wan't Gibson"
"Well he is playing really well and helping the Ducks win."
"Here is the offer, take it or leave it"
"No we will keep him thanks"
"Gibson sucks"

Gibson may regress next year. It's a risk. But it's the same risk teams wanting to acquire him would be taking, and the downside for the Ducks is basically nothing since it will just mean an overpaid backup and the Ducks have the most cap space in the league. They are much better off keeping him to help them win, unless the trade is either an overpayment, or makes them better right now AND the future.