Friedman: Gibson is interested in Carolina or Edmonton

[Soundwave]

Anaheim could have afforded to keep Fowler too, clearly they didn't and dumped him to basically make way for Trouba's incoming salary.

A lot of teams (especially non-playoff teams) operate on an internal budget that is never disclosed. If Dostal is getting a raise into the $5+ million range, then moving Gibson even with half retention effectively pays for a big chunk of Dostal's raise, that's likely attractive for a cost conscious ownership. In the same way moving Fowler out effectively paid for most of Trouba's salary. If they can get a 1st out of it, that's a nice return relative to what Fowler got.

The goaltending market just isn't very big, most contenders of even fringe hopefuls have a designated starter already. Even Edmonton, I mean you can't really say it's an emergency situation for them, they did just make game 7 of a Cup Finals with their existing goalie.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

According to David Pagnotta, Verbeek's asking price is Stu Skinner and a top level prospect.
I can only assume the prospect is Matt Savoie or Sam O'Reilly. So I guess thst kind of translates out to Skinner + a 1st. I don't know about the 50% retention. Anaheim can certainly afford it.

NHL insider confirms asking price for Oilers to acquire John Gibson in trade

The Oilers have been linked to John Gibson in trade rumours this season, and now one NHL insider has confirmed what it would probably cost Edmonton to acquire him in a trade.

www.yardbarker.com

As a ducks fan , I’d be content with

Skinner + savoie/o’rielly
For
Gibson at 50%

Would also be fine with 26 1st, or 2nd + akey

That being said…. I can’t see Anaheim having high interest in savoie.

O rielly I’d guess was prob someone our scouts like a lot

 

[Dr Amazing]

Should get traded to Carolina for Fred Andersson 1 for 1 Edmonton has the Skinner for goalie.

 

[Rec T]

So what's the ask either with retention or without?

Does PV have any consideration to honour players wishes to play for a contender to build that kind of reputation as a GM for future transactions or does he not care to build that reputation? Asking out of curiosity. Ken Holland def believed in that.

Hell I don't know, I'm just some dork on the internet.

I do know that the owners really don't like paying for players to play elsewhere so any retention will probably be minimal. To get them to agree to 50% for 2+ years will take something nice coming back above whatever is settled for Gibson himself. If team 'x' can't fit him without all that retention then it's up to them to make it agreeable to the Ducks to do so.

There's been rumors for years that Gibson wants out. When the team was historically bad I could certainly see it. Now though...? He may or may not want out, it's been radio silence on that front except from people who need to get eyeballs on their articles & potentially go the clickbait route to do so. He very well may have seen where the team is going and decided to ride it out. Nobody outside of the team (ok, his agent) really knows. If he still wants out, yes PV should try to accommodate that...but not at the expense of something that makes the team worse or a negative return. He's a highly paid professional under contract for a couple more years. If PV can make it work, great. If not, it's not the end of the world for the team. Regardless, PV making the attempt to work something out, word will spread around & shouldn't be a complete negative (unless his unknown at this point asking price is so far beyond reasonable to be silly (3 firsts or something equally dumb)).

He's still the starter & the 60/40 work split seems to be working out well for the two of them, maybe he's happy with that. We just don't know. The only thing that's really known is that PV has said that he's taking calls & that the price he wants is high...probably much higher than what's been offered here in this little corner of the internet. Most of Anaheim's fans here seem to factor that into their responses & most of Edmonton's seem to ignore it & try to justify it with 'x', 'y', & 'z'...which means absolutely nothing when the team doesn't 'have' to move on from him & PV seems to know that very well.

 

[Rubi]

Edmonton, I mean you can't really say it's an emergency situation for them, they did just make game 7 of a Cup Finals with their existing goalie.

I bow to the expert knowledge of Edmonton fans. They seem concerned that Skinner often has less than desirable results when playing good teams, which is certainly, according to stats, is a valid concern.

 

[Soundwave]

I bow to the expert knowledge of Edmonton fans. They seem concerned that Skinner often has less than desirable results when playing good teams, which is certainly, according to stats, is a valid concern.

Player Discussion Thread 'Stuart Skinner'

May 15, 2023

Wanted to throw this out there.

While Skinner was very average for many playoff starts this spring, now is not the time to panic and give up on him or throw him away.

He's a Calder finalist, and was good enough to win the starters crease and saved our regular season from being a total disaster with Campbell.

Further more, we've seen Skinner's game, and mental game grow stronger season by s season and there's no reason to believe that this trend will not continue. The team may need a better insurance policy behind Skinner, but Skinner himself will keep improving and in the long run the...

• yukoner88
• Replies: 1,179
• Forum: Edmonton Oilers

• 
• 

HFBoards =/= what management thinks. Anaheim can't really assume Edmonton is desperate and ask for the moon, the fact of the matter is the goaltending market is a buyer's market. There's not much demand. I don't even think Carolina is in that market, not for a 1st. Andersen is back.

 

[Rubi]

HFBoards =/= what management thinks. Anaheim can't really assume Edmonton is desperate and ask for the moon, the fact of the matter is the goaltending market is a buyer's market. There's not much demand.

I never know what management thinks. There's a lot of positive spin out there because nobody likes to admit they've made mistakes... something Oilers fans are familiar with over the years.

 

[Czechboy]

What do you think the owners prefer, paying Gibson to help the Ducks win games, or pay half his salary to help another team win games?

And even if this crazy thing happened where the Ducks didn't have to take a cap dumb or retain, trading Gibson brings them under the cap floor. They will have to spend that money anyways.

Gibson's contract should have literally zero effect on trading Gibson from the Ducks perspective.

Regarding your wording.. yes if you word it like that then who would say 'no'? However, maybe not everyone sees it that way?

Being below the cap is a blessing and a gift. Ducks need to weaponize that cap space and get some forwards and I'd hope their management get that.

Like I said. Hope you guys keep him for the ducks posters sake because I don't think the posters will like the return at all. Guys with NMC's and small lists never get a great return. The article is about Gibson wanting to go to Edmonton, not Edmonton dying to get him.

 

[LTIR]

I don't know how likely a Gibson trade to Edmonton would be. That would be a major trade for the Edm organization. They haven't done anything like that since the Taylor Hall trade. They prefer to make minor trades where risk isn't too great.
I could see Carolina doing a deal though.

Depends upon what EDM is giving up.
Oilers have been burning 1st rd and other picks regularly and this wouldn't be much different.

 

[Soundwave]

I never know what management thinks. There's a lot of positive spin out there because nobody likes to admit they've made mistakes... something Oilers fans are familiar with over the years.

Bottom line is they were a Cup Final game 7 a few months ago along with Florida.

This ain't even a 2006 type situation where the team was scraping by to just barely make the playoffs. The optics do matter. It's hard to strong arm a team that's had a lot of playoff success and has gotten to a Final with basically the roster they have.

If it was a situation where they were sitting in like 9th place, OK different story. But they're the 3rd best team in the league, no.1 since early November.

There's not a ton of leverage there for Anaheim. What Anaheim does have going for them is they could probably extract a 1st + 2nd maaaaaybe, or 1st + 3rd for Gibson + Dumoulin. Dumoulin is an OK vet D, Oilers could use one of those too.

 

[Gliff]

The following summer, the Ducks have to give new contracts to Z, Cutter, Leo, LaCombe, Minty, Zelly. So its not just about this summer. Some of those guys will get bridge deals but its possible a couple get long term as well.

I'm aware of that summer potentially hurting, but I expect most of those guys to get bridges. And The Ducks have an additional 34 mil in cap space opening up the next year. Unless all of those guys break out as PPG players next year, I doubt they will come even close to using all that cap space.

Regarding your wording.. yes if you word it like that then who would say 'no'? However, maybe not everyone sees it that way?

Being below the cap is a blessing and a gift. Ducks need to weaponize that cap space and get some forwards and I'd hope their management get that.

Like I said. Hope you guys keep him for the ducks posters sake because I don't think the posters will like the return at all. Guys with NMC's and small lists never get a great return. The article is about Gibson wanting to go to Edmonton, not Edmonton dying to get him.

They already are not weaponizing their cap space. What would another 3 mil matter?
Also, he has a 10 team NTC, not a full NMC.

This is not a Fowler situation, who had a 28 team NTC.

 

[Three On Zero]

As a ducks fan , I’d be content with

Skinner + savoie/o’rielly
For
Gibson at 50%

Would also be fine with 26 1st, or 2nd + akey

That being said…. I can’t see Anaheim having high interest in savoie.

O rielly I’d guess was prob someone our scouts like a lot

Very reasonable ask and within the constraints of typical goalie trades.

I would steer clear of Savoie. O’Reilly, Akey or Clattenburg(sp?) should be the targets

 

[Soundwave]

If the Oilers offer a 2026 1st take it or leave it, IMO Anaheim takes it. A rebuilding team is not really in a position to turn down a 1st for a 30+ something player that has had poor numbers 4/5 last seasons (thanks Dallas Eakins). It just doesn't make much sense to do that.

Stockpiling 1sts is the bread and butter of basically any sports rebuild these days.

 

[Czechboy]

Very reasonable ask and within the constraints of typical goalie trades.

I would steer clear of Savoie. O’Reilly, Akey or Clattenburg(sp?) should be the targets

Nothing to do with this particular trade.. but it is staggering how little the Oilers have to offer in value.lol

Shitty draft too and our pick will be in the 20's.

Shame Gibson named us to be honest.

And I wouldn't trade Skinner the other way. Gibson may want to be the guy and number 1 but he'll have to earn that. Pickard/Gibson isn't much better than Pickard/Stu. Stu/Gibson battling out the rest of the season and a playoff tandem.. now we're cooking.

 

[Three On Zero]

Nothing to do with this particular trade.. but it is staggering how little the Oilers have to offer in value.lol

Shitty draft too and our pick will be in the 20's.

Shame Gibson named us to be honest.

And I wouldn't trade Skinner the other way. Gibson may want to be the guy and number 1 but he'll have to earn that. Pickard/Gibson isn't much better than Pickard/Stu. Stu/Gibson battling out the rest of the season and a playoff tandem.. now we're cooking.

Teams trying to become serious contenders shouldn’t have much of value for trade, in my opinion.

Did Gibson actually name Edmonton, isn’t it just speculation that he would waive for Edmonton/Carolina? I believe Gibson only has a 10 team modified No Trade Clause, that leaves 21 potential suitors. Anaheim isn’t pigeon holed too badly by that.

Anaheim is also a team showing progress so they don’t really have any incentive to move Gibson when they still have a couple years of Gibson/Dostal.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If the Oilers offer a 2026 1st take it or leave it, IMO Anaheim takes it. A rebuilding team is not really in a position to turn down a 1st for a 30+ something player that has had poor numbers 4/5 last seasons (thanks Dallas Eakins). It just doesn't make much sense to do that.

Stockpiling 1sts is the bread and butter of basically any sports rebuild these days.

The Ducks can still be considered a rebuilder but I do think they are looking to progress more into the "build" phase of that process and be more focused on putting a better team on the ice versus collecting young assets. There's a big picture to consider with any bigger move like that but generally speaking I think they want to start taking steps forward vs backwards in terms of the current roster.

Next season will be year four of what was supposed to be Verbeek's five year rebuild back to contention and it's probably not reasonable to expect it to all come together in year five. The Ducks will be looking to push for playoff contention next year. From the sounds of it, they were in the mix on some big name free agents already this past off season, but struck out and chose to sit on their cap space.

 

[Soundwave]

The Ducks can still be considered a rebuilder but I do think they are looking to progress more into the "build" phase of that process and be more focused on putting a better team on the ice versus collecting young assets. There's a big picture to consider with any bigger move like that but generally speaking I think they want to start taking steps forward vs backwards in terms of the current roster.

Next season will be year four of what was supposed to be Verbeek's five year rebuild back to contention and it's probably not reasonable to expect it to all come together in year five. The Ducks will be looking to push for playoff contention next year. From the sounds of it, they were in the mix on some big name free agents already this past off season, but struck out and chose to sit on their cap space.

The fact of the matter though is even in that scenario having an extra 1st to dangle in a trade for a player for example can help them complete a deal that may not otherwise work.

It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to not have the pick. If they secure a 1st for Henrique and a 1st for Gibson from Edmonton, I'd say that's a pretty smart set of deals of the Ducks. Picks can tip a trade or move you up in a draft to get a player you really want.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

The fact of the matter though is even in that scenario having an extra 1st to dangle in a trade for a player for example can help them complete a deal that may not otherwise work.

It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to not have the pick. If they secure a 1st for Henrique and a 1st for Gibson from Edmonton, I'd say that's a pretty smart set of deals of the Ducks. Picks can tip a trade or move you up in a draft to get a player you really want.

They definitely need to start looking at those types of pieces as ammo.

 

[FiveTacos]

If he’s traded I think it’ll be something like Gibson 30% retained for a mid 2nd + a mid prospect or a 4th.

Locking up a significant amount on a retention spot for 2.5 years alone is worth a decent pick on its own. And Gibson in the 4m range is no longer a financial risk ... look at the list of guys who'd have bigger cap hits, there's a lot of real duds on that list. If that's all there is, better to keep him.

HFBoards =/= what management thinks. Anaheim can't really assume Edmonton is desperate and ask for the moon,

I don't think the assumption is that the Oilers are desperate, but what's certain is the Ducks aren't desperate to sell. If they do nothing with Gibson this year because all they can get is like 2nd-4th rounders, they're no worse off if they wait. I bet he can get a 4th as a rental in two years, and they won't have to retain for 2 years on top of that, and get 2 years of service instead of having to buy a FA or trade an asset to get a backup.

the fact of the matter is the goaltending market is a buyer's market.

The goaltending market is weird in that it's usually a buyer's AND a seller's market, because there's not usually a ton of teams who really really need one, but there's also not usually anything truly fantastic to buy. It would take a perfect confluence of circumstances ... a good goalie, who's a pending UFA, on a team at just the right stage of doing a teardown. Or someone who has two top goalies where they can't give both a huge contract, but in that scenario the buyer's market tends to expand to teams who aren't just contenders looking for a short term fix, but even building teams looking for a longer term solution.

Very reasonable ask and within the constraints of typical goalie trades.

I would steer clear of Savoie. O’Reilly, Akey or Clattenburg(sp?) should be the targets

What's wrong with Savoie?

 

[tomd]

Do people really think Verbeek is burning up the phone lines begging for a deal to give Gibson away? Really??

The ONLY thing that matters is whether Edmonton or Carolina (or someone else) believes their current goaltending is not good enough to win a SC. If they don't then THEY should be burning up the phone lines trying to get an upgrade. If they believe Gibson is that upgrade then they will call Verbeek. If Verbeek asks for a goalie in return plus a top prospect then that is the price of poker. Any sensible GM will pay that price if he feels that a goalie upgrade is the difference between getting that 16th win or not getting it.

 

[MessierThanThou]

The only people naïve enough to think that Edmonton is just fine in net are the 40% of Oiler fans still going on about "Game 7" and the "Dallas series" because they are totally incapable of seeing the obvious or don't watch enough games or need the local media puppets to tell them what to think. I'm not even kidding here when I say that pyramid schemers and cult recruiters should DM these Skinner supporters.

It's pretty clear even from even a faint memory of the playoffs and a cursory glance of his playoff stats that Edmonton got to Game 7 in spite of Skinner (look at his numbers for the first three games of the Finals, especially Game 3) and probably lost the Cup in large part due to him.

The team's weakness is net is obvious to the rest of the league, even if the Edmonton sports media won't dare speak ill of the great moustache. A lot of Oiler fans in this thread sound as if Anaheim's GM could be fooled as easily as Ken Holland or Chiarelli when it's clear that Edmonton needs Gibson more than Anaheim needs whatever Edmonton is wiling to give up to acquire him.

The benefit to Anaheim is that trading Gibson is better than a buyout, but Anaheim has an abundance of cap space and has struggled to make the cap floor...meanwhile the cap will rise even higher than most analysts expected. If Gibson wants out, let him out, take the 1st rounder and prospects, and let's do business, but don't think that underperforming, overpaid guys like Arvidsson are attractive pieces in a deal like this.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Locking up a significant amount on a retention spot for 2.5 years alone is worth a decent pick on its own. And Gibson in the 4m range is no longer a financial risk ... look at the list of guys who'd have bigger cap hits, there's a lot of real duds on that list. If that's all there is, better to keep him.



I don't think the assumption is that the Oilers are desperate, but what's certain is the Ducks aren't desperate to sell. If they do nothing with Gibson this year because all they can get is like 2nd-4th rounders, they're no worse off if they wait. I bet he can get a 4th as a rental in two years, and they won't have to retain for 2 years on top of that, and get 2 years of service instead of having to buy a FA or trade an asset to get a backup.



The goaltending market is weird in that it's usually a buyer's AND a seller's market, because there's not usually a ton of teams who really really need one, but there's also not usually anything truly fantastic to buy. It would take a perfect confluence of circumstances ... a good goalie, who's a pending UFA, on a team at just the right stage of doing a teardown. Or someone who has two top goalies where they can't give both a huge contract, but in that scenario the buyer's market tends to expand to teams who aren't just contenders looking for a short term fix, but even building teams looking for a longer term solution.



What's wrong with Savoie?

They tied up more for the same amount of time in the Fowler deal for a 2nd in 3 years and nothing prospect, while also sending a 4th back and I’d say there’s almost assuredly more of a market for a top 4 dman at 4M then there is for Gibson.

I’m sure you’ll try to say the Fowler trade is tied to the Trouba trade but Fowler was dealt after Trouba and as you pointed out they have plenty of cap space so not like they were forced to give Fowler away retained to fit in Trouba. So what’s the though process? They traded away a 6.5M top 4 dman and retained 2.5M so they could replace him with an overpaid 8M top 4 dman and turn it into a 10.5M cap hit?

 

[tomd]

The only people naïve enough to think that Edmonton is just fine in net are the 40% of Oiler fans still going on about "Game 7" and the "Dallas series" because they are totally incapable of seeing the obvious or don't watch enough games or need the local media puppets to tell them what to think. I'm not even kidding here when I say that pyramid schemers and cult recruiters should DM these Skinner supporters.

It's pretty clear even from even a faint memory of the playoffs and a cursory glance of his playoff stats that Edmonton got to Game 7 in spite of Skinner (look at his numbers for the first three games of the Finals, especially Game 3) and probably lost the Cup in large part due to him.

The team's weakness is net is obvious to the rest of the league, even if the Edmonton sports media won't dare speak ill of the great moustache. A lot of Oiler fans in this thread sound as if Anaheim's GM could be fooled as easily as Ken Holland or Chiarelli when it's clear that Edmonton needs Gibson more than Anaheim needs whatever Edmonton is wiling to give up to acquire him.

The benefit to Anaheim is that trading Gibson is better than a buyout, but Anaheim has an abundance of cap space and has struggled to make the cap floor...meanwhile the cap will rise even higher than most analysts expected. If Gibson wants out, let him out, take the 1st rounder and prospects, and let's do business, but don't think that underperforming, overpaid guys like Arvidsson are attractive pieces in a deal like this.

You have hereby been found guilty by a jury of your HF peers for making way too much sense!!

 

[tomd]

They tied up more for the same amount of time in the Fowler deal for a 2nd in 3 years and nothing prospect, while also sending a 4th back and I’d say there’s almost assuredly more of a market for a top 4 dman at 4M then there is for Gibson.

I’m sure you’ll try to say the Fowler trade is tied to the Trouba trade but Fowler was dealt after Trouba and as you pointed out they have plenty of cap space so not like they were forced to give Fowler away retained to fit in Trouba. So what’s the though process? They traded away a 6.5M top 4 dman and retained 2.5M so they could replace him with an overpaid 8M top 4 dman and turn it into a 10.5M cap hit?

You are looking for a link between Fowler and Gibson where none exists. Fowler had made it clear he wanted out and his play was abysmal. Essentially swapping Fowler for Trouba has made the team much more balanced defensively and their record reflects that.

Gibson OTOH has not given up on the team like Fowler appears to have done. He's one of the better goalies in the league this year and his play has been getting stronger as the season has progressed. There are way worse outcomes than having a Gibson/Dostal duo for the next 2 years.

 

[Rec T]

They tied up more for the same amount of time in the Fowler deal for a 2nd in 3 years and nothing prospect, while also sending a 4th back and I’d say there’s almost assuredly more of a market for a top 4 dman at 4M then there is for Gibson.

I’m sure you’ll try to say the Fowler trade is tied to the Trouba trade but Fowler was dealt after Trouba and as you pointed out they have plenty of cap space so not like they were forced to give Fowler away retained to fit in Trouba. So what’s the though process? They traded away a 6.5M top 4 dman and retained 2.5M so they could replace him with an overpaid 8M top 4 dman and turn it into a 10.5M cap hit?

Fowler (LHD) was dealt for one main reason, the same as to why Trouba (RHD) was brought in...they had an absolute logjam of NHL ready, good LHD, and very little on the right side. To the point where some were made to play on their offside and there was a regularly rotating schedule of healthy scratches (they couldn't be sent down without going through waivers which none of them would clear). Trouba brought the vet presence to a position they were very weak at.

Fowler knew he wasn't the future, was playing like it, & was more than willing to move on (to the point of wanting out nine games short of his 1k with the team). Especially with Trouba taking up another D slot he needed to go fairly quickly. Toss in Fowler's 28 team no trade list & PV pretty much had to take any offer that came along if it wasn't from one of the 4 teams & hope that Cam would waive for them. The return wasn't the point, clearing a D slot was. Retention was just a cost that needed to be paid.

Zero in common with Gibson's situation. If they trade him they'll need to get a relatively decent backup for Dostal (who isn't ready to shoulder a 1A role...which Gibson still has), one that will probably cost $3-4 million/year. If Gibson get traded at 50% retention (3.2 million) that means that the backup, probably/most assuredly lesser quality than Gibson, costs the Ducks $6.2-7.2 million with the retention amount factored in. Orrr they can just keep him at $6.4...

Plus Dostal needs a new contract. If he sees that his backup is effectively getting paid that much, what's he going to demand and probably get? Gibson stays for another year & they can probably bridge him at a reasonable to both sides amount & then really get paid in a year or two when he's the true 1A.