General COVID-19 Talk #3 NHL Qualifiers begin August 1 MOD Warning

[Token]

It is a disease that has a 0.2 IFR. It affects people who are older and have serious issues. These are facts.

This is the kind of data cherry-picking that leads to poor choices.

It’s not any kind of fact. It’s the current observation based on allot of extrapolated data.

IFR is a post-event analysis done as a study to further understand the scope and scale of the contagion. It is based on serological surveillance of the population at large and application of statistical models. In the peak of a pandemic we are not collecting this surveillance data! We are testing people with PCR tests for current infections! i.e. CFR!

Case Fatality Rate is what is overwhelming the healthcare system and it’s in the 3-4% range.

Choosing a metric just because it is lower and supports ones point of view doesn’t make it good judgment. Hubris is a better fit.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I almost completely stopped commenting on here, but this is my opinion. The WHO recently published this: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf. The unstratified IFR according to the WHO is estimated to be ~0.2, which is not that extreme, especially when we know this disease disproportionately affects those of extreme ages who have comorbidities. This is a real disease, but we for certain overestimated the danger and the policies put forth are scary and are killing people as well. Questioning the extreme policies does not make you a Covid denier.

No, we absolutely agree with that. That may be true for some, but that's not the conversation we've been having. Please don't misinterpret that part because I think we've had a pretty good discussion over policy disagreements. What I'm worried about is full-out denial, like the examples in the last page as well as this:



This person is in charge of policy. That's a problem, when you're bold faced lying to your constituents--SD has more deaths than South Korea and is alternating with ND for worst situation in the world right now. At least own it. Their official policy is "we're not going to do shit"--fine. But of course the people are going to be reckless when you outright deny that there's even an issue.

And to be fair California might be the opposite with the added bonus of leadership ignoring their own mandates.

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[Statto]

Good news, the AZ vaccine, subject to some final dose tweaks, looks like it will be 90% effective, a fifth of the cost and easy to store/distribute.

Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine is highly effective

 

[Lt Dan]

.

Holy shit on the new cases!!!
12.9 % positive tests today

Hospitalization skyrocketed over the weekend . it was 333 on Friday
ICU up slightly from 102 on Friday

Mon: 0
Sun-3
Sat-11
Fri: 3
Thu:7
Wed: 2
Tues:0

3.714 up from 2.28 on Friday

 

[Lt Dan]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, even Kings17

 

[KINGS17]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, even Kings17

I think you misspelled "especially".

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[Lt Dan]

6.8% positive tests today 428 yesterday
ICU up from 105 yesterday


Rolling 7 day
Tues: 2
Mon: 0
Sun-3
Sat-11
Fri: 3
Thu:7
Wed: 2

a 2 replaced a 0 so the average rises a little to 4 from 3.71 yesterday

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

This is the kind of data cherry-picking that leads to poor choices.

It’s not any kind of fact. It’s the current observation based on allot of extrapolated data.

IFR is a post-event analysis done as a study to further understand the scope and scale of the contagion. It is based on serological surveillance of the population at large and application of statistical models. In the peak of a pandemic we are not collecting this surveillance data! We are testing people with PCR tests for current infections! i.e. CFR!

Case Fatality Rate is what is overwhelming the healthcare system and it’s in the 3-4% range.

Choosing a metric just because it is lower and supports ones point of view doesn’t make it good judgment. Hubris is a better fit.

In my opinion it's just a crap argument to sit there and ignore all the other harms. The "well did you die?" argument is just on the surface of what this virus does that it glosses over reality which oversimplifies it with black and white thinking. It makes no mention of long term effects, effects on children affecting family members and possibly killing their grandparents. Of all the patients who get PTSD from getting intubated, who go to sleep hearing alarms, having nightmares post discharge if they do make it out and are not delirious with all the meds we give People are not the same after being in the ICU. There is no root into real life understanding by sitting on, "well, you didn't die".

This article is from 2015. Post Covid, that number will surely be higher because patients can't see their families. They are alone, dealing with this for weeks. Some months in the ICU.

To pinpoint a more definitive estimate of PTSD prevalence, the researchers conducted a meta-analysis of a subset of the 40 studies. They selected six studies, with a total of about 450 patients, that used a PTSD measurement tool called the Impact of Event Scale between one and six months after ICU discharge. From these data, they found that one in four patients had symptoms of PTSD. The researchers repeated the same meta-analysis for studies that looked at patients seven to 12 months after an ICU stay and found that one in five patients had PTSD. “These rates are as high as you might see in combat soldiers or rape victims,” says Dale Needham, M.D., a professor of medicine and of physical medicine and rehabilitation at Johns Hopkins. “Our clinicians and patients should know that the high risk of PTSD exists among patients surviving critical illness.”

Common risk factors for PTSD included being diagnosed with a psychological problem, such as anxiety or depression, before coming to the ICU, the researchers found. Another risk factor was receiving large amounts of sedation medication while in the ICU. Additionally, patients that reported having frightening memories of being in the ICU have a higher risk of PTSD.
These symptoms occur across a wide variety of patients, regardless of their age, diagnosis, severity of illness or length of stay. “This tells us that if we focus on factors traditionally associated with worse physical outcomes, such as a patient’s age, we may miss individuals with psychiatric symptoms,” says Bienvenu.

With more than 5 million people annually requiring ICU-level care in the United States and more than 750,000 Americans needing mechanical ventilators, “it’s clear that those who care for ICU patients need to be aware that there could be long-term consequences of critical illness and lifesaving treatments, including PTSD, which can significantly limit a patient’s quality of life well after discharge,” says Parker.
The field of critical care medicine is getting better at saving lives, but there’s now an ever-growing group of ICU survivors. “To ensure that these patients have the best possible quality of life, we have to look at what their lives are like after they leave the ICU,” says Needham.
For years Needham and his colleagues have studied what happens to patients after they leave the ICU. “Our previous research looked at patients one to five years after surviving a critical illness in the ICU,” he says. “We analyzed the physical, cognitive and psychological effects of their critical illness/ICU care and uncovered an array of challenges that are clinically referred to as post-intensive care syndrome.” PTSD is just one aspect of post-intensive care syndrome, he says.

This was from 2015. We haven't even started studying what is happening with these Covid Patients let alone seeing long term health effects. Right now, it's just focused on keeping people alive. Everything else will come after that emergency dies down. (pun intended).
Sourced for your viewing pleasure.

PTSD Common in ICU Survivors - 04/20/2015

 

[Token]

In my opinion it's just a crap argument to sit there and ignore all the other harms. The "well did you die?" argument is just on the surface of what this virus does that it glosses over reality which oversimplifies it with black and white thinking. It makes no mention of long term effects, effects on children affecting family members and possibly killing their grandparents. Of all the patients who get PTSD from getting intubated, who go to sleep hearing alarms, having nightmares post discharge if they do make it out and are not delirious with all the meds we give People are not the same after being in the ICU. There is no root into real life understanding by sitting on, "well, you didn't die".

This article is from 2015. Post Covid, that number will surely be higher because patients can't see their families. They are alone, dealing with this for weeks. Some months in the ICU.

To pinpoint a more definitive estimate of PTSD prevalence, the researchers conducted a meta-analysis of a subset of the 40 studies. They selected six studies, with a total of about 450 patients, that used a PTSD measurement tool called the Impact of Event Scale between one and six months after ICU discharge. From these data, they found that one in four patients had symptoms of PTSD. The researchers repeated the same meta-analysis for studies that looked at patients seven to 12 months after an ICU stay and found that one in five patients had PTSD. “These rates are as high as you might see in combat soldiers or rape victims,” says Dale Needham, M.D., a professor of medicine and of physical medicine and rehabilitation at Johns Hopkins. “Our clinicians and patients should know that the high risk of PTSD exists among patients surviving critical illness.”

Common risk factors for PTSD included being diagnosed with a psychological problem, such as anxiety or depression, before coming to the ICU, the researchers found. Another risk factor was receiving large amounts of sedation medication while in the ICU. Additionally, patients that reported having frightening memories of being in the ICU have a higher risk of PTSD.
These symptoms occur across a wide variety of patients, regardless of their age, diagnosis, severity of illness or length of stay. “This tells us that if we focus on factors traditionally associated with worse physical outcomes, such as a patient’s age, we may miss individuals with psychiatric symptoms,” says Bienvenu.

With more than 5 million people annually requiring ICU-level care in the United States and more than 750,000 Americans needing mechanical ventilators, “it’s clear that those who care for ICU patients need to be aware that there could be long-term consequences of critical illness and lifesaving treatments, including PTSD, which can significantly limit a patient’s quality of life well after discharge,” says Parker.
The field of critical care medicine is getting better at saving lives, but there’s now an ever-growing group of ICU survivors. “To ensure that these patients have the best possible quality of life, we have to look at what their lives are like after they leave the ICU,” says Needham.
For years Needham and his colleagues have studied what happens to patients after they leave the ICU. “Our previous research looked at patients one to five years after surviving a critical illness in the ICU,” he says. “We analyzed the physical, cognitive and psychological effects of their critical illness/ICU care and uncovered an array of challenges that are clinically referred to as post-intensive care syndrome.” PTSD is just one aspect of post-intensive care syndrome, he says.

This was from 2015. We haven't even started studying what is happening with these Covid Patients let alone seeing long term health effects. Right now, it's just focused on keeping people alive. Everything else will come after that emergency dies down. (pun intended).
Sourced for your viewing pleasure.

PTSD Common in ICU Survivors - 04/20/2015

For my 50th birthday, my good doctor saiz: “With your family history, the acid reflux, we gotta go in and take a look, check out for polyps and also look at the esophagus and stomach for acid damage”

I respond: “Oh shit”!

He goes: “Yes, you will be doing that too”

So with a history of both anxiety and seasonal depression, they set me up on the gurney, tap a IV drip and go with a mild sedative of some kind. All good so far.

The IV drip was freaky cuz they took it from the fridge and it was weird cold pumping in but the sedative is balancing out the freak out.

So I’m more or less zoned out a bit and they wheel me I to the procedure room.

There I’m greeted by an instrument on the surgical table that looks like H. R. Geiger designed it for a bio-mech appendage that would be at home in the Aliens movie franchise. A coiled, ribbed 6’ snake with pistol grips and endless steampunk knobs.

And then it hits me... there’s only one instrument.

In my haze I say: “Hey, Doc, your doing the esophagus first, right”?

He bursts out laughing just as the Propofol hits the IV ...

I still dream of that lovely instrument.

Anyway, not really Rona or hockey related, but y’all know a bit more about me and it’s a fine segue for a hearty Happy and Safe Thanksgiving to all.

BTW, no polyps or acid reflux damage so it all came out fine in the end.

 

[tny760]

The IV drip was freaky cuz they took it from the fridge and it was weird cold pumping in but the sedative is balancing out the freak out.

that's a weird f***in feeling isn't it? i had to have my wisdom teeth done outpatient at the hospital with an anesthesiologist and all that, cause apparently i'm resistant to whatever the clinic doc gave me when he tried the first time and he didn't feel comfortable operating on me

i remember that distinctly though, "this is gonna feel cold" and feeling that weird internal coldness even though i wasn't

always been kinda amused by those weird sensory events that only happen once or twice in your life

 

[Bandit]

For my 50th birthday, my good doctor saiz: “With your family history, the acid reflux, we gotta go in and take a look, check out for polyps and also look at the esophagus and stomach for acid damage”

I respond: “Oh shit”!

He goes: “Yes, you will be doing that too”

So with a history of both anxiety and seasonal depression, they set me up on the gurney, tap a IV drip and go with a mild sedative of some kind. All good so far.

The IV drip was freaky cuz they took it from the fridge and it was weird cold pumping in but the sedative is balancing out the freak out.

So I’m more or less zoned out a bit and they wheel me I to the procedure room.

There I’m greeted by an instrument on the surgical table that looks like H. R. Geiger designed it for a bio-mech appendage that would be at home in the Aliens movie franchise. A coiled, ribbed 6’ snake with pistol grips and endless steampunk knobs.

And then it hits me... there’s only one instrument.

In my haze I say: “Hey, Doc, your doing the esophagus first, right”?

He bursts out laughing just as the Propofol hits the IV ...

I still dream of that lovely instrument.

Anyway, not really Rona or hockey related, but y’all know a bit more about me and it’s a fine segue for a hearty Happy and Safe Thanksgiving to all.

BTW, no polyps or acid reflux damage so it all came out fine in the end.

Sounds like a real pain in the ass...

 

[Lt Dan]

Today

 

[Token]

Sounds like a real pain in the ass...

Didn't feel a thing and that Propofol is real nice ...

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

For my 50th birthday, my good doctor saiz: “With your family history, the acid reflux, we gotta go in and take a look, check out for polyps and also look at the esophagus and stomach for acid damage”

I respond: “Oh shit”!

He goes: “Yes, you will be doing that too”

So with a history of both anxiety and seasonal depression, they set me up on the gurney, tap a IV drip and go with a mild sedative of some kind. All good so far.

The IV drip was freaky cuz they took it from the fridge and it was weird cold pumping in but the sedative is balancing out the freak out.

So I’m more or less zoned out a bit and they wheel me I to the procedure room.

There I’m greeted by an instrument on the surgical table that looks like H. R. Geiger designed it for a bio-mech appendage that would be at home in the Aliens movie franchise. A coiled, ribbed 6’ snake with pistol grips and endless steampunk knobs.

And then it hits me... there’s only one instrument.

In my haze I say: “Hey, Doc, your doing the esophagus first, right”?

He bursts out laughing just as the Propofol hits the IV ...

I still dream of that lovely instrument.

Anyway, not really Rona or hockey related, but y’all know a bit more about me and it’s a fine segue for a hearty Happy and Safe Thanksgiving to all.

BTW, no polyps or acid reflux damage so it all came out fine in the end.

As a prank, you could have asked the Doc "are you sure went through the mouth first? It tasted a little tart". Glad everything worked out. Propofol is truly milk of the poppy. It's super weird how fast it works and quickly it wears off.

 

[Lt Dan]

No figures released Thu, so this is Thu and Fri

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kinda figured it would be a goofy reporting week, with the late week holiday + weekend.

Gonna be a really unfortunate looking catch-up day on Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This is bad.



I'd like to assume better treatment at this stage helps but still.

 

[Bandit]

"Freedom isn't free"

 

[Lt Dan]

"Freedom isn't free"

My mom is though

Just get in line

 

[fivehole32]

"Freedom isn't free"

Nope, it's about a buck o'five.

 

[Lt Dan]

Three days in a row of 0 deaths

Pick your shitty 3 days in a row song



or




Bad news 10.46% positive tests today
and more bad news: since Wednesday the

Hospitalization up from 479 on Wednesday
ICU up from 115 on Wednesday


Rolling 7 day

Mon:0
Sun: 0
Sat:0
Fri: 7
Thu: 11
Wed: 3
Tues: 2

The average is 3.28, which is actually down from Tuesday of last week because of the zeros