General COVID-19 Talk #3 NHL Qualifiers begin August 1 MOD Warning

[Lt Dan]

I wonder why the large disparity in different area for ICU admissions. Perhaps it is as you mentioned in the data from Riverside. If you only had 6 people in the ICU on Oct 26, and now you have 18 percentage-wise it's a big increase.

My first guess would be that it got in to another ALF/SNF

 

[Lt Dan]

5.4% positive tests today
Hospitalization down from 251 yesterday
ICU up from 89 yesterday and inching close to the 100 number

Rolling 7 day

Fri: 2
Thu:6
Wed: 2
Tues:3
Mon:0
Sun: 3
Sat:3

The average falls to 2.71

 

[HeadInjury]

I wonder why the large disparity in different area for ICU admissions. Perhaps it is as you mentioned in the data from Riverside. If you only had 6 people in the ICU on Oct 26, and now you have 18 percentage-wise it's a big increase.

Don't read much into the Riverside ICU % increase. Total ICU admissions now are still in the single digits.

 

[Statto]

I would love to discuss the finer points of this with you. Not sure this is the right pace to do it.

We have been fed that narrative for decades now by Pharma and their lobby.

I call it pseudoscience, something that’s sounds reasonable and plausible but is disconnected from reality.

My opinion and perception is formed from a top-down approach; SEC filings - then dig down into the books, rather than the bottom-up stories fed to us with no supporting, third-party verified data.

Every couple few years I dig down on a few top companies, for my own curiosity and education, and end up amazed how much profit they create and what they spend it on.

Things like marketing budgets for advertising being orders of magnitude bigger than the actual RnD budget, stock buybacks, Dr. outreach programs etc.

And if you then really dig down into the RnD spending, you find that 70% of the work was done by the NIH or other government backed research entities that were licensed, bought, sold, then finished off in a phase 3 trial and patented for good measure only to be re-patented when a stereo isomer gets pushed down post 1st patent expiration.

I don’t mind Pharma making a healthy profit, but I also don’t care one bit to be fleeced over and over again by corrupt practices.

I wouldn’t argue about the profit margins and completely agree I’m putting out the age old argument which is essentially true. I couldn’t argue if it’s the real reason certain drugs are so expensive, or used as an excuse, as I’ve never done the maths because it is far too complex and I never had access to the contract/drug cost info anyway. I didn’t work for one of the Big Pharmas but one of the CRO’S so our cost model was different anyway. So if someone could ‘prove’ the drugs are a rip off far in excess of covering r&d and making a reasonable profit I wouldn’t argue it in all honesty.

The model has definitely evolved as you say with smaller companies seemingly being the ones discovering many of the good candidate substances before the big boys come in. I’ve also been out of things for a while now and get the feeling that shareholders seem to get greater rewards than ever before. So you may well be right. I’m less sensitive personally to drug costs as we have the NHS and although our prescriptions top out at approx £10 each, I do a prepayment for all mine annually and it comes in at £110, which is in place to protect those with chronic conditions. So the NHS picks up the vast majority of medication costs for us all in the uk.

I will vehemently defend the clinical trial process though. Yes the odd mistake does happen but when it does the issue gets fixed very quickly and if global change is needed to accepted practice it will happen. Everyone follows GCP and trial data is transparent so I have every confidence in it. Of course it’s possible for an individual Investigator (Doctor) to lie about results but there are complex data analysis’ that would pick that up in the vast majority of those incredibly rare cases (I only recall ever reading about 1 case) so it’s a very robust system.

I will stop boring everyone now...

 

[KINGS17]

Don't read much into the Riverside ICU % increase. Total ICU admissions now are still in the single digits.

Thanks, I had a feeling that was it.

 

[Token]

I wouldn’t argue about the profit margins and completely agree I’m putting out the age old argument which is essentially true. I couldn’t argue if it’s the real reason certain drugs are so expensive, or used as an excuse, as I’ve never done the maths because it is far too complex and I never had access to the contract/drug cost info anyway. I didn’t work for one of the Big Pharmas but one of the CRO’S so our cost model was different anyway. So if someone could ‘prove’ the drugs are a rip off far in excess of covering r&d and making a reasonable profit I wouldn’t argue it in all honesty.

The model has definitely evolved as you say with smaller companies seemingly being the ones discovering many of the good candidate substances before the big boys come in. I’ve also been out of things for a while now and get the feeling that shareholders seem to get greater rewards than ever before. So you may well be right. I’m less sensitive personally to drug costs as we have the NHS and although our prescriptions top out at approx £10 each, I do a prepayment for all mine annually and it comes in at £110, which is in place to protect those with chronic conditions. So the NHS picks up the vast majority of medication costs for us all in the uk.

I will vehemently defend the clinical trial process though. Yes the odd mistake does happen but when it does the issue gets fixed very quickly and if global change is needed to accepted practice it will happen. Everyone follows GCP and trial data is transparent so I have every confidence in it. Of course it’s possible for an individual Investigator (Doctor) to lie about results but there are complex data analysis’ that would pick that up in the vast majority of those incredibly rare cases (I only recall ever reading about 1 case) so it’s a very robust system.

I will stop boring everyone now...

Thank you for the discussion. It is quite different here in the US where Pharma gets to set prices however they like.

Life saving drugs magically went from under $100 to over $600 despite being off patent for decades, like insulin or epipen’s.

It’s a darn shame.

 

[KINGS17]

A little plain science on masking.

Point:



Counterpoint:

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[Lt Dan]

Today




This is the 4th day in a row with over 500 cases

 

[KINGS17]

Moderna: I'll see your 90%, and raise you 4.5%.

Moderna says its vaccine is 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19

 

[KINGS17]

Newsom: Do as I say...

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...says-he-should-not-have-attended-dinner-party

 

[Schrute farms]

Typical politician

 

[Bandit]

Both sides suck shit through a garden hose:

f*** it Dude, let's go golfing...

 

[Token]

Moderna: I'll see your 90%, and raise you 4.5%.

Moderna says its vaccine is 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19

The really good news from Moderna is that their vaccine does not need cryogenic storage. Only -30C or -22F. This is the same cold level for the chickenpox vaccine so folks are trained, equipment already there.

The bad news is that they can only pump out ~ 20M doses for this double-dose vaccine.

 

[Lt Dan]

I despise all politics and have equally annoying and extreme friends on both sides, but they all despise Newsom

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I despise all politics and have equally annoying and extreme friends on both sides, but they all despise Newsom

You'll notice not many people even here put up much of a fight in his defense, lol.

Re: Covid he gets MAJOR marks for our initial response though. I'm sure to some degree that was the height of his approval. I don't even WANT to know what it looks like now.

His current handling is erring on the side of extreme caution which is meritoriously debatable but without presenting the "why" behind it the public is free--and should be--to continue attacking him for answers. "Just because" isn't good enough. What informs the tiers? Now I know the information is out there, but we shouldn't have to search high and low for it.

Something both at the federal and state level that has plagued this country for years is information presentation. In this era, there's no excuse for it, especially with digital tools and dissemination. Hire an info modeling/data visualization consultant at the very least, FFS. What good is the info if you can't translate and disseminate it?

 

[Lt Dan]

The good news, cases under 500!
The bad news, 7.8% positives today

The other bad news is OC is back to the purple tier

SANTA ANA (CBSLA) — Orange County is moving back to the most restrictive purple tier, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday afternoon.
During his news conference, Newsom said the state is hitting an “emergency brake” on economic activity in light of what he calls an unprecedented spike in COVID-19 cases statewide.

Orange County Moves Back To Most Restrictive Purple Tier; Newsom Says State Hitting 'Emergency Brake'

Hospitalization up from 244 on Friday
ICU down from 95 on Friday

Rolling 7 day

Mon:0
Sun:2
Sat:2
Fri: 2
Thu:6
Wed: 2
Tues:3

2.42 is a grrrrrrreat number.

 

[Crownroyal21]

Well shit. I’m a bartender in Santa Barbara county. I’m f***ed. How long you think this lockdown lasts?

 

[Legionnaire]

Well shit. I’m a bartender in Santa Barbara county. I’m f***ed. How long you think this lockdown lasts?

Winter. It depends on the effectiveness of the vaccines.

 

[Lt Dan]

Well shit. I’m a bartender in Santa Barbara county. I’m f***ed. How long you think this lockdown lasts?

Newsom is much quicker to assign tiers and move counties in to more restrictive ones than he is to loosen them.
I wish I could give you a rosy answer, but it's probably time to hit the EDD website again and file...

 

[fivehole32]

It's not just Newsome, its Gov. Prizker, who's wife went to Florida when everyone else in Illinois was told not to travel, it's Governor Whitmer who wrapped up seeds and other "nonessential" things at Walmart and told no one to go boating because of Covid, while her husband went boating. It's Nancy Pelosi getting a blowout and hosting an indoor dinner and once enough pressure was put on her changed those plans. Its Governor Cuomo walking his dog without a mask in his neighborhood while lambasting everyone else for not wearing a mask. It's Mayor Lightfoot who got her hair done during the first 30 day lockdown and when asked said, "Well I have to look good because I have to appear in front of a camera everyday." All of the politicians are self serving idiots. As George Carlin said, "It's a big club folks, and we aren't in it."

 

[Token]

In the US of A, right now, it cost more or less $10000 to bury one’s deceased.

Crazy inflation, and they don’t let you pick a spot on the ranch no more.

edited for spellling

 

[Bandit]

"If your social life is gonna be impacted by new lockdown restrictions, you're probably the reason we're getting new lockdown restrictions"

In the US if A, right now, it cost more or less $10000 to bury one’s deceased.

Crazy inflation, and they don’t let you pick a spot on the ranch no more.

We may be bereaved, but we're not stupid!! Is there a Ralph's around here?

 

[Token]

"If your social life is gonna be impacted by new lockdown restrictions, you're probably the reason we're getting new lockdown restrictions"



We may be bereaved, but we're not stupid!! Is there a Ralph's around here?

This why I keep hogs...

... freezer is full and they greedy as a pig.

 

[tny760]

This why I keep hogs...

... freezer is full and they greedy as a pig.