GDT: GDT Game #III Pens vs Flames 1900hrs EST: The BlindWillyMcHurt Banishment Edition

[McGroarty2]

Let's be realistic for a second here. The goals have been scored by the powerplay or the top 6. The bottom 6 has not produced much in terms of goals or chances, thus, it is crucial that the top 6 and big guns continue to produce.

Now, looking at the stats and extrapolating out to 82 games played, assuming no injuries, we have:

Malkin: 82GP - 41G 123A 164PTS
Crosby: 82GP - 123G 0A 123PTS
Guentzel: 82GP - 0G 123A 123PTS
Smith: 82GP - 41G
Rust: 82GP - 41G

Letang, Eller, Karlsson, Rakell, and Pettersson all with 41A.

If they can keep that kind of pace, I think we should be ahead of where we were last year. They all need a big game tonight to help.

I think Sid could hit 123 goals. That's definitely possible.

 

[SEALBound]

This has been my argument for "zone starts" stats perspectives for quite awhile. I all ignore the premise of "Well Player XYZ is shit but it's because he has >50% dzone starts". Often the eye test and the stats confirm the player is shit but...yeah, it's the zone start.

I don't know what that line needs...it's not terrible but realistically, it looks like an AHL 2nd line out against NHL 3rd/4th lines. I don't think anyone of them have been THAT bad individually sans Carter's atrocious penalty in Game 1.

That line needs a 2016 Rust/Sheary/Wilson. Someone with some jump that can get them moving. If we could swap Smith+ for a decent 3RW, I would be interested to see DOC-Accari-Nieto

 

[Kristopher Letang]

I bet my house on a Karlsson goal.

LGP!

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Kris Letang bet his house on a Karlsson goal. Uh oh.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Our version of the bottom six is like the village people songs.

Track

1. Y- you M- make C- consistent A- anguish
2. In the Bottom Six-y
3. Jake, do we still get a Milkshake?
4. I wish I was Macho Man Malkin
5. I want Letang as MY Roommate
6. I Am What I Am, I'm a bottom six I am
7. Give Me A Break, from defending you Sully
8. Watching Karlsson from the bench is like, Sex Over The Phone
9. That big G is Fire Island from the penalty box
10. I Wanna Shake Your Hand from the bench, Sidney Crosby

"Bonus Track - playing it backwards"

11. @ColePens bottomed out and was never informed of or Ready For The 80's hfboard trivia

And there's your top 10 songs plus bonus track.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I'll probably be watching some spooky movies instead of the game.

Go Pens!

 

[Ugene Magic]

I'll probably be watching some spooky movies instead of the game.

Go Pens!

Edit: I went to Recon Brewery in Cranberry last night (good food) and their soft pretzel and beer cheese is awesome. Then went home and watched The Nun.

 

[McGroarty2]

Kris Letang bet his house on a Karlsson goal. Uh oh.

Someone please bet Carter's new house on a Karlsson goal.

 

[K Fleur]

I'm feeling a Rakell goal tonight.

Probably at 5v5 so it will count for more

 

[Pancakes]

Our bottom six is at least not bleeding goals against yet so far.

 

[LOGiK]

I'll probably be watching some spooky movies instead of the game.

Go Pens!

We never miss an opportunity on rainy nights to enjoy the atmosphere... since it is cold now, definitely staying in and watching a rainy scary/thriller/mystery/suspense film after sundown.
Will watch game in the a.m.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

This has been my argument for "zone starts" stats perspectives for quite awhile. I all ignore the premise of "Well Player XYZ is shit but it's because he has >50% dzone starts". Often the eye test and the stats confirm the player is shit but...yeah, it's the zone start.

I don't know what that line needs...it's not terrible but realistically, it looks like an AHL 2nd line out against NHL 3rd/4th lines. I don't think anyone of them have been THAT bad individually sans Carter's atrocious penalty in Game 1.

That line needs a 2016 Rust/Sheary/Wilson. Someone with some jump that can get them moving. If we could swap Smith+ for a decent 3RW, I would be interested to see DOC-Accari-Nieto

Takes a large chunk of L4's shift to even get possession in the O-zone (at the other end), let alone score.
It's not something we can pretend doesn't heavily influence scoring rates.

Sure, if the guys are dreadful you don't give them more ozS, cuz it's not worth it. Doesn't change the fact that they'd score more if they got like 50/50, instead of 20/80.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

No idea why 38 year old Carter played 5 more ES minutes than Harkins last night, but oh well.
As long as the team wins, it's all good.

 

[SEALBound]

Takes a large chunk of L4's shift to even get possession in the O-zone (at the other end), let alone score.
It's not something we can pretend doesn't heavily influence scoring rates.

Sure, if the guys are dreadful you don't give them more ozS, cuz it's not worth it. Doesn't change the fact that they'd score more if they got like 50/50, instead of 20/80.

That's not a zone start issue though, that's a "the line sucks" issue.

Plain fact of the matter is, hockey is a 200ft game played at both ends. You need to be able to play at both ends. If you can't get out of your own end reliably, then of what worth are you to the team?

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Time Stands Still tonight, I got Big Money on Rush to score first tonight. Early Distant Warning, we gotta get out of our Subdivisions of those that hate Sully versus those those that just strongly dislike him. I fear Carts is the Enemy Within, but I’m in the Mood for a back to back win tonight…

 

[Andy99]

I'll probably be watching some spooky movies instead of the game.

Go Pens!

The game could be a lot scarier lol depending on what team shows up…

 

[AuroraBorealis]

That's not a zone start issue though, that's a "the line sucks" issue.

You're missing the point. Even the worst lines in the league will score more if you boost their O-zone starts by 30% for the whole year. That's just the nature of chance generation and O-zone time.
Every time you give them an O-zone start instead of a D-zone start, that's like 15 seconds or whatever more that they have to work with on the attack, assuming they win the faceoff and get to work on possession.
Inevitably, some of those instances will lead to more goals that they otherwise wouldn't score. There'll be lucky bounces and randomly good plays from fringe players.

Plain fact of the matter is, hockey is a 200ft game played at both ends. You need to be able to play at both ends. If you can't get out of your own end reliably, then of what worth are you to the team?

We agree, it has to be worth giving them the ozS. I don't mind trying it occasionally when they have good flow and L1 or L2 are playing like dogshit. Same goes with L3.
I don't believe in giving 65-75% ozS to Crosby and Malkin's line every night, regardless of how they're playing. We did that last year.
It doesn't work. It's bad for morale in the bottom-six, and the top-six get sloppy defensively.
There needs to be a reward/punishment system for strong/weak play.

 

[SomeDude]

I'll probably be watching some spooky movies instead of the game.

Go Pens!

Watching game 1 again? Terrifying.

 

[SEALBound]

You're missing the point. Even the worst lines in the league will score more if you boost their O-zone starts by 30% for the whole year. That's just the nature of chance generation and O-zone time.
Every time you give them an O-zone start instead of a D-zone start, that's like 15 seconds or whatever more that they have to work with on the attack, assuming they win the faceoff and get to work on possession.
Inevitably, some of those instances will lead to more goals that they otherwise wouldn't score. There'll be lucky bounces and randomly good plays from fringe players.

We agree, it has to be worth giving them the ozS. I don't mind trying it occasionally when they have good flow and L1 or L2 are playing like dogshit. Same goes with L3.
I don't believe in giving 65-75% ozS to Crosby and Malkin's line every night, regardless of how they're playing. We did that last year.
It doesn't work. It's bad for morale in the bottom-six, and the top-six get sloppy defensively.
There needs to be a reward/punishment system for strong/weak play.

No, I get that if you give them more offensive zone starts, there may be a SMALL increase in offensive production but that's all "in a vacuum" irrespective of everything else. Why does Sullivan give the line with already poor offensive zone play more opportunity? Of what value is that to the team and game? You put your offensive threats in the best opportunity to score.

But this also gets more to the point of Jesse's post about shifts beginning more on the fly than via faceoffs. The GF% doesn't start and stop only when there is or is not a faceoff in a particular zone. Realistically, it's only a single factor in a multi-factor analysis of a player or line's overall play.

 

[Victor Z]

Not to steal any thunder from our more-experienced pessimists here, but a loss tonight and people will start to realize that we are really very similar to the Capitals, if they don't realize it already (1 fluky game aside):

Elderly core, top-heavy offense limited to 2 lines (L3 and L4 suck on both teams), not much defense (but at least we have offense there), middle-of-the-pack caliber goaltending, no great young prospects making any impact.

Aside from Ovi's attempt to decapitate Karlsson and Wilson's courageous attempt to duke it out with Markus "The Breadstick" Pettersson, they don't even bother cheap-shotting so much anymore. While they aren't as "soff" as the Pens (nobody is) they aren't going to win games with super physical play any more than we are.

The main differences between the Pens & Caps: we have "EK65" now and they don't, and they have a new non-retread coach who may implement a system other than "let's all pitch in to get Ovi his record". Shockingly, in the first 60 minutes of the season under that new system, the Caps didn't look so great.

 

[Sideline]

No idea why 38 year old Carter played 5 more ES minutes than Harkins last night, but oh well.
As long as the team wins, it's all good.

As much as I want Carter set adrift on an iceflow, I didn't see anything from Harkins that makes me think he's a better option. Carter still occasionally shows flashes of the star player he used to be.

 

[Andy99]

As much as I want Carter set adrift on an iceflow, I didn't see anything from Harkins that makes me think he's a better option. Carter still occasionally shows flashes of the star player he used to be.

Eh…I saw Carter be near the net last night with a chance at a goal and his stick wasn’t even on the ice to receive a pass…if he’s not going to bother with even that kind of effort, he shouldn’t be out there

 

[TNT87]

Eh…I saw Carter be near the net last night with a chance at a goal and his stick wasn’t even on the ice to receive a pass…if he’s not going to bother with even that kind of effort, he shouldn’t be out there

If Hextall was still here he would have given Carter a two-year extension by now.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's been two games of an 82+ game campaign. Carter's definitely gonna fall back to being the Jack Johnson-level shitbag on the ice, and likely sooner than later. He hasn't been an automatic for numerous chances and/or goals against while on the ice yet, but he hasn't been good at all imo. /shrug

But, team's stuck with him unless he gets hurt. So, cross your fingers that somebody blasts a slapshot off his inner foot or something.

 

[WickedWrister]

Not to steal any thunder from our more-experienced pessimists here, but a loss tonight and people will start to realize that we are really very similar to the Capitals, if they don't realize it already (1 fluky game aside):

Elderly core, top-heavy offense limited to 2 lines (L3 and L4 suck on both teams), not much defense (but at least we have offense there), middle-of-the-pack caliber goaltending, no great young prospects making any impact.

Aside from Ovi's attempt to decapitate Karlsson and Wilson's courageous attempt to duke it out with Markus "The Breadstick" Pettersson, they don't even bother cheap-shotting so much anymore. While they aren't as "soff" as the Pens (nobody is) they aren't going to win games with super physical play any more than we are.

The main differences between the Pens & Caps: we have "EK65" now and they don't, and they have a new non-retread coach who may implement a system other than "let's all pitch in to get Ovi his record". Shockingly, in the first 60 minutes of the season under that new system, the Caps didn't look so great.