GDT: Game 9: Sharks @ Vegas 7pm NBCSCA

[Jargon]

This is the win. Goose and Smith lead the way in a 4-3 OT win.

 

[The Nemesis]

Most of us predicted Vegas not making the playoffs this year and not making the playoffs still makes a team eligible for the lottery. We have to ask when their regression will come though, right? Stone is gonna get hurt. Theodore just secured his payday so we expect regression there. I am completely surprised that they are doing so well, I thought Reilly Smith and Muchasshole were their heart and soul but I guess not haha

I would be super curious if there have been studies to show whether or not the "got paid, take the foot off the gas" effect is real and repeatable. Sure we all have anecdotal evidence but that hardly counts as proof and may disguise myriad of other factors that would contribute to post-payday swoons (signing guys at or just past their peaks so their natural decline is masked as "coasting on a fat contract", injuries, their fate being impacted by the team around them (such as player on a contender signing a contract that then runs through the team's decline phase where they now have less help and will struggle to produce equally valuable output as the roster falls apart), etc. Or it might be that 80% of fat extension guys live up to them and we just remember the 20% that don't because it's a bigger and more interesting story than "guy does what he's expected to do"

I'm not asking this to say "you're wrong and you should feel bad that your opinion is bad", just that it occurs to me that we tend to take this idea that security breeds complacency for granted but it might be a misdirect or an outright mirage.

 

[Cas]

...signing guys at or just past their peaks... Or it might be that 80% of fat extension guys live up to them and we just remember the 20% that don't because it's a bigger and more interesting story than "guy does what he's expected to do"

I would almost guarantee it's these two things.

 

[The Nemesis]

I would almost guarantee it's these two things.

That's what I figure as well, I just wanted to see if there was actual evidence to support it otherwise it's no more valid of a conclusion than assuming that guys get their bag and become fat and lazy.

 

[Hodge]

Per Sheng Gushchin is skating with Granlund and Toffoli. If he doesn't score tonight I never want to hear about how this guy wasn't given a fair shake again.

 

[CHALUPA]

Per Sheng Gushchin is skating with Granlund and Toffoli. If he doesn't score tonight I never want to hear about how this guy wasn't given a fair shake again.

Got it, Boss

 

[Sharksfan66]

It's time.

4-2 Sharks

SJ: Goose, Toffoli, Smith, Goodrow
Vegas: Theodore, Eichel

 

[Kcoyote3]

Per Sheng Gushchin is skating with Granlund and Toffoli. If he doesn't score tonight I never want to hear about how this guy wasn't given a fair shake again.

No guarantees my bias runs deep

 

[sharski]

The Regression to the Mean winning streak starts here with the Will Smith breakout game

SNOG
Sharks 3 - Smith, Taffoli, Eklund
VGK 2 - Eichel, Stone

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

I would be super curious if there have been studies to show whether or not the "got paid, take the foot off the gas" effect is real and repeatable. Sure we all have anecdotal evidence but that hardly counts as proof and may disguise myriad of other factors that would contribute to post-payday swoons (signing guys at or just past their peaks so their natural decline is masked as "coasting on a fat contract", injuries, their fate being impacted by the team around them (such as player on a contender signing a contract that then runs through the team's decline phase where they now have less help and will struggle to produce equally valuable output as the roster falls apart), etc. Or it might be that 80% of fat extension guys live up to them and we just remember the 20% that don't because it's a bigger and more interesting story than "guy does what he's expected to do"

I'm not asking this to say "you're wrong and you should feel bad that your opinion is bad", just that it occurs to me that we tend to take this idea that security breeds complacency for granted but it might be a misdirect or an outright mirage.

I dont have any data on it, it's mostly anecdotal but it would be an interesting project to do.

Regarding Theodore, there are a lot of things working against him that scream "regression soon"! He is 29 already and I remember when I got over 30 everything physical became so much harder for some reason. Also, he recently welcomed his first child, likely the first of many. It might give him Dad Strength and make him Shea Superdad or.....for me at least, my newborn completely ruined my sleep/productivity/stamina. Finally, he already won his Stanley Cup, Pietrangelo does everything on defense anyways, so why not make this business decision here and not turn my back to this incoming forechecker who wants to plaster me to the boards eh?

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

4-2 vagueness Hertl with 2

 

[TheBeard]

Sharks 5
Vegas 3

Goose scores all 5 just to spite Hodge.

 

[Tw1ster]

Sharks 5
Vegas 3

Goose scores all 5 just to spite Hodge.

And then is subsequently healthy scratched for the next game

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

Quinn was the tank commander, but the idea is that Warsofsky can still potentially be a tank commander while acclimating to the NHL coaching job.

Let's say it takes 2 seasons for Warsofsky to learn how to be a proper NHL head coach. And for the sake of this let's ignore the question of whether he may not be one at all irrespective of development time. Let's just say that he's a tube of cookie dough where you don't have to do anything but put it in the oven for the directed amount of time (and for the sake of the metaphor, please don't turn this into a moratorium on how crappy storebought cookie dough tubes are. That's beside the point)

Let's also say that the Sharks won't be ready to actually threaten any team for 2 more seasons including this one (so they will suck this year, suck somewhat less next year and maybe be a playoff team by 26-27. Again I'm not actually concerned if this is 100% mapped to real world projections. It's probably a bit on the aggressive side, but it's for illustrative purposes)

So you hire Warsofsky now and in 2 years when the team is ready to do some damage he'll be ready to coach that team.

If you wait a year or two before hiring him you then eat into those potential competitive years while still training along the new coach. So now if you need both the competitive team and competent coach to actually be properly competitive, it's 3 to 4 years out before that happens instead of 2

If you hire him now, he learns on the job at a point where the wins are irrelevant in the face of the incremental development of the various parts and pieces. In 2 years time when the team is ready to make some noise Warsofsky has also evolved into a workable NHL head coach. Everything lines up and that window of competition opens in 2 years.

Now like I said those numbers are not terribly important in terms of what they actually are. It could be that it's supposed to take 3 years to be ready, or 4, or 6, or maybe something crazy happens and it's next year. It's just that if the team's intent is to go with a young head coach that grows into a potentially good bench boss then you're best to start the training clock now vs waiting a few years. The alternative is to not care about developing a new coach and instead just wait to hire a retread in a few years when we're ready to go.

Also the winning culture and "winning is everything!" is contrary to the developmental goals of the org at the moment. Trying to push for wins at the expense of proper growth is what causes stagnation just as much as being stuck in a morass of terribleness.

Would they like to win a few games? Sure. That'd be great. But these Sharks are hardly at the point in their development cycle where you look at them being winless through these first few games of the season and sound the alarm because it's not like they were ever shooting for the playoffs or anything. And I'm sure that while every player would love to win, I'm also sure that they signed up understanding that it might not happen, but that every loss notched this year was a building block for multiple potential wins down the line.

I mean thats pretty much how Deboers career started and he turned out to be a pretty good coach

And then is subsequently healthy scratched for the next game

For Kostin for extra board rage

 

[Jargon]

I really like the lines tonight, they seem really balanced.

 

[Timo Time]

SNOG
4-1 Knights
Hertl, Hanifin, Eichel, Stone
Eklund