GDT: Game 73: Columbus vs. Anaheim | 3/24 7PM EDT

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Uh no dude. This is the cbj way. Get buried early and rally late to secure that all important 5th-12 pick. I think we've picked in the top 3 like maybe twice. Which I find odd for a team that's only made the playoffs twice. Then again maybe this is the biggest reason we've only made the playoffs twice. Haha

I know this. Our best franchise players were the ones taken the earliest. Nash...Murray...johansen.

Again I point you to December. It's time for people to stop living in Oversimplificationville.

 

[JacketsDavid]

No this isn't what the Jackets are historically. It's what we were this year, due to injuries; it's what we were last year, when we made the playoffs; it's what we were 2 years ago with a bunch of new guys and no training camp.

I'm tired of the false narrative that the Hackets always suck then play well. I've followed the team from the beginning as I'm sure you all have too, and that has only been the story the last couple of years, and if you look a little deeper you'll find, I think, that there are clear reasons for that pattern. I mean this year we started well, before we began sucking.

Injuries is the 2014-15 excuse. Other times it has been coaching, or apathy/conditioning of players.

If there is a stat somewhere tht shows the last 10 seasons and jackets records for the first 41 games and last 41 games of the season I suspect you see it more times than not it is true. Not every year, but more so than not. I tried to find it one day and couldn't (so not being passive aggressive but short of manually counting pts and games I couldn't find it tracked).

I will stand corrected if proven false - but I've been down this road several times (at least in my mind lol)

 

[Forepar]

Injuries is the 2014-15 excuse. Other times it has been coaching, or apathy/conditioning of players.

If there is a stat somewhere tht shows the last 10 seasons and jackets records for the first 41 games and last 41 games of the season I suspect you see it more times than not it is true. Not every year, but more so than not. I tried to find it one day and couldn't (so not being passive aggressive but short of manually counting pts and games I couldn't find it tracked).

I will stand corrected if proven false - but I've been down this road several times (at least in my mind lol)

JD - Feels that way because of last 3 seasons. A mixed bag prior to that, slightly favoring better 2nd halves of seasons. The "differential" I calculated is based on points, not wins.

Year 1st half 2nd half point differential
00-01 13-22-6 15-17-9 +7
01-02 11-23-7 11-24-6 -1
02-03 15-20-6 14-22-5 -3
03-04 11-23-7 14-22-5 +4
04-05 lockout entire season
05-06 12-27-2 23-16-2 +22
06-07 16-21-4 17-21-3 +1
07-08 19-16-6 15-20-6 -8
08-09 19-18-4 22-13-6 +8
09-10 15-18-8 17-17-7 +3 (started year 12-6-2, then cratered)
10-11 20-18-3 14-17-10 -5
11-12 11-25-5 18-21-2 +11
12-13 8-12-4 16-5-3 +15 (lockout shortened season)
13-14 18-19-4 25-13-3 +13
14-15 18-20-3 16-15-1

(20-19-2) (est) +3

First 10 seasons, 6 seasons had better 2nd half, 4 seasons with better 1st half. The average difference is 2.8 points more in 2nd half than first half for the same 10 years; if you take out the outlier 05-06 season, the average differential is measurably less than 1 point differential between halves.

09-10 was the schizophrenic year- leading the division at 12-6-2 at Thanksgiving time, immediately in the tank thereafter and then a small recovery - made it feel like a huge 2nd half improvement when in fact the two halves weren't that much different in points earned.

However, these immediate past 4 seasons support JD's theory; 3 of the 4 seasons show double-digit improvement in points in the second half (with this year tbd, but extrapolated to be a +3 - and this year is slanted because the December run was actually in the first half). I think this is a perfect example of the "recency bias."

 

[db2011]

Thanks, Forepar, that's pretty much how I remember it. We've consistently picked mid round because we've been a consistently mediocre team. The start terribly/finish strong dynamic is historically recent, with signs pointing towards the strong finishes being more representative of the team's quality than the poor starts, which are somewhat explainable

 

[JacketsDavid]

Forepar you're the man! I tried to find info a while ago and couldn't!
Thanks for finding.

 

[Columbus Mike]

Thanks, Forepar, that's pretty much how I remember it. We've consistently picked mid round because we've been a consistently mediocre team. The start terribly/finish strong dynamic is historically recent, with signs pointing towards the strong finishes being more representative of the team's quality than the poor starts, which are somewhat explainable

In a league where 16 of 30 get into the playoffs mediocre teams are playoff bound. We've been a pretty consistently bad team.

 

[Forepar]

Forepar you're the man! I tried to find info a while ago and couldn't!
Thanks for finding.

I'm going to the frame shop with this one!

You are welcome!