GDT: Game 70: Anaheim Ducks vs Carolina Hurricanes, 5pm PT

[Arthuros]

My only comfort is that Z is back up above 0.5 PPG for now.

 

[anezthes]

My only comfort is that Z is back up above 0.5 PPG for now.

I'm on similar copium—21 points in the last 30 games.

 

[The Duck Knight]

I'm on similar copium—21 points in the last 30 games.

And just think about how many empty nets Killorn has missed in those 30 games. Z was flat out bad at the start of the year but he wasn't the only one. You put him with someone that can reliably put the puck in the net and he'll be just fine production wise. Still wish they would play him at center instead of Strome.

 

[anezthes]

You put him with someone that can reliably put the puck in the net and he'll be just fine production wise.

Imagine a functioning PP on top of that.

 

[Leonardo87]

My only comfort is that Z is back up above 0.5 PPG for now.

I'm on similar copium—21 points in the last 30 games.

The PP being so bad is why most of our kids are struggling to stay above .50 PPG, have to give Mac a lot of credit for pacing over 50 points this season.

All I really want is for him to hit 50+ points, Leo 40+ points which is good for a 20 yo in this system. They both need 7 points in the last 12. It's very doable but I think they fall short since they seem to be losing a lot of steam down the stretch, and no more Nashville games, lol.

It's really all I am rooting for now. Also, wanted to end the season at .500 but even that feels like a tall order.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

These are my 2 non-negotiables I've been talking about for the offseason. Get a top 6 winner who can put the puck in the back of the net and the other forwards will slot in much more appropriately.

Your point about construction of a 23 man roster is so on point. That's why i've been harping on a big time trade this offseason. We already have a ton of back end talent (commence the 2010's defensive core comparisons) and we should offload 1 of them AND our lottery pick for a bonafide player.

We have to get aggressive - this team is not rebuilding again next year.

I just read that Buffalo will be missing the playoffs for the 14th season in a row. They have a lot of youths on their roster. They constantly have a lot of youth acquired at every draft, but no success.

Verbeek did say that he wants the youths to be teaching the younger youths. Which reminds me of Buffalo's non-playoff woes situations.

I know a lot of people are clamoring for an actual top-6F this offseason. We definitely need an actual top-6F in their prime. We also should improve our top-4D situation. In a recent the Athletic article about ranking top-pairing D-men, the Ducks (LaCombe-Gudas) ranked 20th with respect to Goal Differential/60 mins. Some pairs below us are playoff teams, implying that they have a better supporting cast despite a lower rated top d-pairing. Anaheim doesn't have that.

We have no defenseman above 50% CF percentage at even strength. Even when Zell is heavily sheltered with nearly 57% OZ Start%, he isn't above 50% CF Pct. The only d-man with a positive xShot Diff +/- is LaCombe. Which is the youth leading the youths.

Anaheim needs another top-4D besides LaCombe. LaCombe broke out in his age 23/24 season. Minty and Zell are two years away from that age. Do the Ducks continue upon the same path and hope one of the youths takes a great jump next season while propping up 3rd pairing D vets in Gudas and Trouba into a top-4 roles?

 

[Mr Rogers]

The PP being so bad is why most of our kids are struggling to stay above .50 PPG, have to give Mac a lot of credit for pacing over 50 points this season.

All I really want is for him to hit 50+ points, Leo 40+ points which is good for a 20 yo in this system. They both need 7 points in the last 12. It's very doable but I think they fall short since they seem to be losing a lot of steam down the stretch, and no more Nashville games, lol.

It's really all I am rooting for now. Also, wanted to end the season at .500 but even that feels like a tall order.

An interesting thing for me about this team is certain guys are performing at or near 100% of their offensive ability IMO. Terry, Mctavish and Lacombe i'd say for sure are - Vatrano/Strome maybe too? Gauthier might be as well factoring in it's his rookie year. Other guys are probably lower than they should be. I'm wondering if Cronin and his system impacts certain players more than others.

I don't think Cronin is a coach who would ever oversee a high-octane offense but at the same time I don't think he's the sole reason we are as low scoring as we are.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

An interesting thing for me about this team is certain guys are performing at or near 100% of their offensive ability IMO. Terry, Mctavish and Lacombe i'd say for sure are. Gauthier might be as well factoring in it's his rookie year. Other guys are probably lower than they should be. I'm wondering if Cronin and his system impacts certain players more than others.

I don't think Cronin is a coach who would ever oversee a high-octane offense but at the same time I don't think he's the sole reason we are as low scoring as we are.

I think it's just the reality of having a bunch of young forwards (inherent inconsistency with peaks and valleys), guys like Zellweger and Mintyukov who have the ability to be high-level point producers but who are either stifled by the system and/or haven't figured it out at the NHL level yet, really bad special teams, and at least 7-8 guys (including 5-6 forwards, in which I throw in a guy like McGinn) on the 23-man roster who are absolute non-factors offensively, like complete zeros (which while I know we want Pat to go big-game hunting in the offseason, he absolutely has to figure out how to raise the floor at the bottom of the roster this offseason).

 

[The Duck Knight]

I think it's just the reality of having a bunch of young forwards (inherent inconsistency with peaks and valleys), guys like Zellweger and Mintyukov who have the ability to be high-level point producers but who are either stifled by the system and/or haven't figured it out at the NHL level yet, really bad special teams, and at least 7-8 guys (including 5-6 forwards, in which I throw in a guy like McGinn) on the 23-man roster who are absolute non-factors offensively, like complete zeros (which while I know we want Pat to go big-game hunting in the offseason, he absolutely has to figure out how to raise the floor at the bottom of the roster this offseason).

This. Young players are inconsistent. Development is not linear. The vet skaters on this team outside of Terry and Dumoulin this year have not been good to put it bluntly.

 

[duckpuck]

I think it's just the reality of having a bunch of young forwards (inherent inconsistency with peaks and valleys), guys like Zellweger and Mintyukov who have the ability to be high-level point producers but who are either stifled by the system and/or haven't figured it out at the NHL level yet, really bad special teams, and at least 7-8 guys (including 5-6 forwards, in which I throw in a guy like McGinn) on the 23-man roster who are absolute non-factors offensively, like complete zeros (which while I know we want Pat to go big-game hunting in the offseason, he absolutely has to figure out how to raise the floor at the bottom of the roster this offseason).

The dismal power play skews everything. If the Duck's PP is league average (or even slightly worse), a lot of players have much better offensive numbers and the ducks win quite a few more games.

It is baffling how bad the PP has been for several years and how the Duck's coaches seem unable to figure it out.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The PP being so bad is why most of our kids are struggling to stay above .50 PPG, have to give Mac a lot of credit for pacing over 50 points this season.

All I really want is for him to hit 50+ points, Leo 40+ points which is good for a 20 yo in this system. They both need 7 points in the last 12. It's very doable but I think they fall short since they seem to be losing a lot of steam down the stretch, and no more Nashville games, lol.

It's really all I am rooting for now. Also, wanted to end the season at .500 but even that feels like a tall order.

• 2022-23
  • PK Eff: 15.72% (31st in NHL)
  • Zegras (2nd year in NHL): 81gp, 23g + 42a = 65pts (0.80 ppg) ... 1st in team scoring
  • Terry: 70gp, 23g + 38a = 61pts (0.87 ppg) ... 2nd in team scoring
  • Mac (rookie season, age 20): 80gp, 17g + 26a = 43 pts (0.54 ppg) ... 4th in team scoring

That 2022-23 team was plagued with an abysmal blueline roster constructed by Verbeek. These youths scored at a high rate with an abysmal PP Eff percentage. This should dispel the notion that not having a good PP means the youths cannot score at a higher rate.

---

This year, Carlsson is the same age as Mac's rookie season in the NHL and their ppg rates are very similar, with Carlsson having a 0.52 ppg rate. Mac's 2nd season in the NHL posted a 0.66 ppg rate, an improvement of 0.12 ppg. Carlsson, otoh, has stagnated in year 2 of the NHL.

What I am more surprised about the lack of offensive production are the huge dips from Minty and Zell. They're producing like a stay-at-home D such as Helleson. Zell is still sheltered, but Minty has been put on defensive duties with a 58.5% DZone start percentage (2nd highest among current Ducks defensemen.)

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Easier said than done. The forwards Verbeek chased last summer were also past their primes (Stamkos, Marchessault).

They did us a favor for not choosing us. Klingberg also did us a favor by turning down a multi-year contract from Verbeek at the start of free agency and came back at the end of FA period with his $7 mil, one-year contract.

 

[Mr Rogers]

This. Young players are inconsistent. Development is not linear. The vet skaters on this team outside of Terry and Dumoulin this year have not been good to put it bluntly.

For sure, but there has to be a progression aspect in a general-sense. The non-linear line of thinking is probably gonna be less compelling if we see similar progression as this year (there's been almost none for certain guys at a high-level). IMO in that scenario it still would be too early to start getting worried too much, but i think it'd be very revealing about guys' preparation and commitment in the offseason.

I guess with Cronin he suppresses absolute production but guys should still be improving (positive delta). I don't buy that he prevents players from improving but no doubt he and his system suppress point totals.

 

[duckaroosky]

I think we need @duckaroosky and @Ducks DVM to each do at least one GDT before season's end.

I'm retired

 

[Hockey Duckie]

For sure, but there has to be a progression aspect in a general-sense. The non-linear line of thinking is probably gonna be less compelling if we see similar progression as this year (there's been almost none for certain guys at a high-level). IMO in that scenario it still would be too early to start getting worried too much, but i think it'd be very revealing about guys' preparation and commitment in the offseason.

I guess with Cronin he suppresses absolute production but guys should still be improving (positive delta). I don't buy that he prevents players from improving but no doubt he and his system suppress point totals.

The youths are improving with their defense such as rotating as F3 to replace a pinching D-man or backchecking faster. We can notice this with fewer GA and improved +/- rating. Granted, our goalies are a huge part of those stats, but the defensive efforts are there. The priority under Cronin is defense first and foremost. Then let the team figure out how to score on counter rushes. There is no offensive cultivation besides shoot more pucks at the net and individual effort.

In the chart below, we see improvement in +/-, but the offense has stagnated with the exception of LaCombe. But I did denote that LaCombe's offense spurred in the last 22/23 games of the season, once he acclimated to the NHL game speed and play. (Helleson didn't play at all on NHL club last season.) In an effort to improve defensive play with the blueliners, it has cost them some of their offense in Minty and Zell. Both are looking up to LaCombe and not any other blueline vet for offensive play. Which is crazy b/c it's the youths teaching the youths.

Former Duck Silf said in an interview that turning on the offensive creativity was difficult to switch on in-season. In his later years as a Duck, Silf was put into a shutdown, defensive role for the rebuild. A year after leaving the Ducks for Byrnas in the SHL, Silf is that team's leading scorer (47 points) and goal scorer (23 goals). In the SHL, he is 4th overall in scoring and goal scoring. The difference with Silf is that he had established himself as an offensive weapon before coming over to NA and was an offensive weapon with the playoff Ducks. He scored 20 goals or more four out of five seasons, 2015-2019.

Verbeek wants his youths bodies to have men's bodies yesterday. Not every youth has Mac or Solberg genetics, but they're the standard for Verbeek. LaCombe just turned 24 years old, but spent four years in college developing his body along with his gameplay. Helleson looks more comfortable than Minty, Zell, or Luneau at the NHL level b/c Helleson spent three seasons in the NCAA developing his body and game. Helleson and LaCombe come from the 2019 draft. Zell was swole when he went pro, but he is still a diminutive player due to his stature.

Carlsson wanted to work on his skills over the summer, but Verbeek was upset that he didn't work out enough. Verbeek seems aloof that his Carlsson mgmt program failed, where Carlsson was to workout often in the first half of the season and the be beasting it in the 2nd half of the season. Instead, Carlsson was still trying to tread water in the NHL. Carlsson's game was no activated this year until he joined other Swedes at the 4 Nation's event. His national team teammates and coaches were able to get to Carlsson such that he has played more aggressively since the 4 Nation's event. That should speak volumes about the Ducks' coaching and development program... it's not conducive to offensive-minded players.

 

[Mr Rogers]

The youths are improving with their defense such as rotating as F3 to replace a pinching D-man or backchecking faster. We can notice this with fewer GA and improved +/- rating. Granted, our goalies are a huge part of those stats, but the defensive efforts are there. The priority under Cronin is defense first and foremost. Then let the team figure out how to score on counter rushes. There is no offensive cultivation besides shoot more pucks at the net and individual effort.

In the chart below, we see improvement in +/-, but the offense has stagnated with the exception of LaCombe. But I did denote that LaCombe's offense spurred in the last 22/23 games of the season, once he acclimated to the NHL game speed and play. (Helleson didn't play at all on NHL club last season.) In an effort to improve defensive play with the blueliners, it has cost them some of their offense in Minty and Zell. Both are looking up to LaCombe and not any other blueline vet for offensive play. Which is crazy b/c it's the youths teaching the youths.

View attachment 998658

Former Duck Silf said in an interview that turning on the offensive creativity was difficult to switch on in-season. In his later years as a Duck, Silf was put into a shutdown, defensive role for the rebuild. A year after leaving the Ducks for Byrnas in the SHL, Silf is that team's leading scorer (47 points) and goal scorer (23 goals). In the SHL, he is 4th overall in scoring and goal scoring. The difference with Silf is that he had established himself as an offensive weapon before coming over to NA and was an offensive weapon with the playoff Ducks. He scored 20 goals or more four out of five seasons, 2015-2019.

Verbeek wants his youths bodies to have men's bodies yesterday. Not every youth has Mac or Solberg genetics, but they're the standard for Verbeek. LaCombe just turned 24 years old, but spent four years in college developing his body along with his gameplay. Helleson looks more comfortable than Minty, Zell, or Luneau at the NHL level b/c Helleson spent three seasons in the NCAA developing his body and game. Helleson and LaCombe come from the 2019 draft. Zell was swole when he went pro, but he is still a diminutive player due to his stature.

Carlsson wanted to work on his skills over the summer, but Verbeek was upset that he didn't work out enough. Verbeek seems aloof that his Carlsson mgmt program failed, where Carlsson was to workout often in the first half of the season and the be beasting it in the 2nd half of the season. Instead, Carlsson was still trying to tread water in the NHL. Carlsson's game was no activated this year until he joined other Swedes at the 4 Nation's event. His national team teammates and coaches were able to get to Carlsson such that he has played more aggressively since the 4 Nation's event. That should speak volumes about the Ducks' coaching and development program... it's not conducive to offensive-minded players.

I acknowledged Mctavish, Lacombe, and Gauthier as having done well this year and playing at or near their current potential so no arguments there. Helleson and Colangelo have looked good as well

The other guys - Leo, Minty, Zegs, Zell - haven't really improved much this year and sure they are young. I guess what i'm saying is that I don't necessarily fully buy into 'being young' and non-linear development as being a super convincing argument for why they've sorta stayed the same this year. Leo has taken a big jump defensively for sure, but he's done less offensively than certainly i was hoping but i think my expectations for him are higher than most (altho IMO they are completely reasonable)

It might be ok to land on that this season but it won't be compelling to being saying that again next year. I also don't think Cronin has been that bad for the young guys (although he isn't great either) because like i said a lot of young guys have actually looked pretty good - offensively too, not just defensively. We'll learn a lot more next year.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I'm retired

You can come back on a one day contract. We've got the cap space to cover it.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I think we need @duckaroosky and @Ducks DVM to each do at least one GDT before season's end.

Hell no. I have the kind of GDT karma that made prematurely gloating 2017 playoff Edmonton fans look good.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

This. Young players are inconsistent. Development is not linear. The vet skaters on this team outside of Terry and Dumoulin this year have not been good to put it bluntly.

Stromes been good…. Ish

 

[duckaroosky]

You can come back on a one day contract. We've got the cap space to cover it.

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Harkins had some great moments in the game yesterday. He's one of the only players that consistently skates like hell.

He's kinda like Max Jones.

He's tryin out there. Certainly a lot better than Ross Johnston I suppose lol.