GDT: Game 7: Red Wings vs devils 7:00 pm et 10/24/24

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

As Lalonde mentioned in his post game presser, the Wings have not given up an ES goal since the first period against the Predators.

That's 8+ periods of hockey.

 

[Game suspension]

Scary how Red Wings hardly noticed Compher missing. (imo)

Red Wings are used to playing without a 2nd line center cuz Compher ain't that.

 

[wingerdinger]

If this team had a half decent second pairing we'd be a good watch. As it is atm I cant see this style of hockey being sustainable in the long run.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

It was deemed a scoring chance but not a high danger scoring chance. When you look at the precise location he wasn't quite in the slot and if you consider he had defenders around him (but not immediately on him) I think that is fairly reasonable.

One can argue it was more of a high danger chance, sure. There is some greyness with this sort of activity. This is why sample sizes are important.

But that is equally applicable with "the eye test." One person could say the eye test told him Kasper had a good game. Another person could say it was mediocre. Those grey areas still exist with the eye test, probably more so. In fact, quantifying each event reduces the greyness (especially over large sample sizes) even if you don't 100% agree with the bucketing of every single event.

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To simply use location on the ice ignores too many important variables. If that's Ras clubbing a knucklepuck pass from behind the net out to Fischer in that spot, sure, that's not really a high quality scoring chance.

Kane shoots left-handed so while there may have been someone relatively close to him (when isn't there in today's NHL), he is wide open for the shot.

It's hard for me to put too much stock into a stat where a Patrick Kane one-timer from this spot is not considered a high danger scoring chance.

Regarding Kasper, all the stats used where based on shot generation. That doesn't mean Kasper is struggling. I'm not saying he's tearing it up out there. But for a kid playing his 4th NHL game getting significant minutes against good teams, I think he's looked pretty good.

 

[kook10]

If this team had a half decent second pairing we'd be a good watch. As it is atm I cant see this style of hockey being sustainable in the long run.

I dunno, to me it was a bit boring and ugly until it got chippy. To me that indicates we need a tougher coach to challenge and piss them off so they play angry more. We've got quite a few passive pros.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Regarding Kasper, all the stats used where based on shot generation. That doesn't mean Kasper is struggling. I'm not saying he's tearing it up out there. But for a kid playing his 4th NHL game getting significant minutes against good teams, I think he's looked pretty good.

Yeah if Kasper doesn't generate more offense over the next ten or fifteen games, I wouldn't be opposed to sending him down to GR to dominate and work on his scoring. I don't want him to get typecast as a defensive, effort guy who never scores because he manages to stick around despite his low production. He obviously belongs in the NHL and can help the Red Wing a, I just prioritize his development over upgrading our 2/3C a bit.

I think the play has been there though. He's even doing a decent job of generating opportunities, it's just that things have consistently not quite worked out well enough to turn into shots and then goals. He does a great job retrieving the puck, presenting good passing options, defending the rush and defending one on one. He's physical and isn't getting manhandled. I love the speed. He's also bold enough to try things and accepting messing up sometimes which is huge in a rookie. I love his play so far. Hopefully he can produce more soon.

 

[FMichael]

As Lalonde mentioned in his post game presser, the Wings have not given up an ES goal since the first period against the Predators.

That's 8+ periods of hockey.

That's gonna be his 'ace up the sleeve' if/when he gets called into Yzerman's office

 

[SirloinUB]

To simply use location on the ice ignores too many important variables. If that's Ras clubbing a knucklepuck pass from behind the net out to Fischer in that spot, sure, that's not really a high quality scoring chance.

Kane shoots left-handed so while there may have been someone relatively close to him (when isn't there in today's NHL), he is wide open for the shot.

It's hard for me to put too much stock into a stat where a Patrick Kane one-timer from this spot is not considered a high danger scoring chance.

View attachment 921450


Regarding Kasper, all the stats used where based on shot generation. That doesn't mean Kasper is struggling. I'm not saying he's tearing it up out there. But for a kid playing his 4th NHL game getting significant minutes against good teams, I think he's looked pretty good.

Hey, Like I said, there is a greyness in quantifying the eye test but make no mistake, that is what analytics are, attaching value to what you see happening on the ice. Is the delineation of HD vs a regular scoring chance perfect? No, but neither is the eye test.

My intent in bring up Kasper, and maybe I shouldn't have use him in this case, was to reflect that the eye test holds its own greyness.

 

[wingerdinger]

I dunno, to me it was a bit boring and ugly until it got chippy. To me that indicates we need a tougher coach to challenge and piss them off so they play angry more. We've got quite a few passive pros.

Not saying Lalonde is great either, but I feel a lot of our problems stem from our terrible second pairings.

I have a theory that they dont play Seider on the top unit of the powerplay because management want to conserve him for the toughest 5 on 5 matchups. Since they know our second pairing would get walked at every turn against the other teams top lines.

 

[FMichael]

Yeah if Kasper doesn't generate more offense over the next ten or fifteen games, I wouldn't be opposed to sending him down to GR to dominate and work on his scoring. I don't want him to get typecast as a defensive, effort guy who never scores because he manages to stick around despite his low production. He obviously belongs in the NHL and can help the Red Wing a, I just prioritize his development over upgrading our 2/3C a bit.

I think the play has been there though. He's even doing a decent job of generating opportunities, it's just that things have consistently not quite worked out well enough to turn into shots and then goals. He does a great job retrieving the puck, presenting good passing options, defending the rush and defending one on one. He's physical and isn't getting manhandled. I love the speed. He's also bold enough to try things and accepting messing up sometimes which is huge in a rookie. I love his play so far. Hopefully he can produce more soon.

Forgive my ignorance, but was he ever looked upon as a solid point producer?

I've been under the impression Kasper's #1 attribute has always been his compete level...Danielson is the guy who'll eventually fill in as 1B or 2nd line center.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

To simply use location on the ice ignores too many important variables. If that's Ras clubbing a knucklepuck pass from behind the net out to Fischer in that spot, sure, that's not really a high quality scoring chance.

Kane shoots left-handed so while there may have been someone relatively close to him (when isn't there in today's NHL), he is wide open for the shot.

It's hard for me to put too much stock into a stat where a Patrick Kane one-timer from this spot is not considered a high danger scoring chance.

View attachment 921450


Regarding Kasper, all the stats used where based on shot generation. That doesn't mean Kasper is struggling. I'm not saying he's tearing it up out there. But for a kid playing his 4th NHL game getting significant minutes against good teams, I think he's looked pretty good.

Agree with you that Kqne being able to walk into high slot with unobstructed look constitutes a High Danger chance, but not for half a dozen other forwards. With a lot of these stats the cumulative totals tell enough of the story to have value, For example their xGF and xGA against per game is one of the worst negative differentials in the league, That matches how they look to me so far. They're fortunate to be 4-3.

Kasper sticks with it, even when he and the team is struggling to put two or three passes together. He's mostly in good position in all zones and works hard at helping out defensively, for example contributing to a big stop on Hischier late in the game.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Yeah if Kasper doesn't generate more offense over the next ten or fifteen games, I wouldn't be opposed to sending him down to GR to dominate and work on his scoring. I don't want him to get typecast as a defensive, effort guy who never scores because he manages to stick around despite his low production. He obviously belongs in the NHL and can help the Red Wing a, I just prioritize his development over upgrading our 2/3C a bit.

I think the play has been there though. He's even doing a decent job of generating opportunities, it's just that things have consistently not quite worked out well enough to turn into shots and then goals. He does a great job retrieving the puck, presenting good passing options, defending the rush and defending one on one. He's physical and isn't getting manhandled. I love the speed. He's also bold enough to try things and accepting messing up sometimes which is huge in a rookie. I love his play so far. Hopefully he can produce more soon.

Agreed. And right now it's not like the team as a whole is generating a ton of offense and Kasper is some exception.

 

[kook10]

Not saying Lalonde is great either, but I feel a lot of our problems stem from our terrible second pairings.

I have a theory that they dont play Seider on the top unit of the powerplay because management want to conserve him for the toughest 5 on 5 matchups. Since they know our second pairing would get walked at every turn against the other teams top lines.

I think that is clearly true, but also in previous seasons you could see the dip in play from Mo when he is exhausted. And we simply haven't needed him PP1.

I am not really a fan of what sometimes appears to be a strict man to man defense that Lalonde (or Boughner) loves. You can see how some teams use active movement in the O zone to drag both D out of the slot and our depth forwards blow the coverage. It is infuriating to see how many times you see both D outside the dot on the same side. We don't have the gas to play that way and don't have forwards that are good enough in coverage.

Plus it seems to confuse the D on odd man rushes. how many times have we seen Petry or Chia waving to the backchecking partner to pick up the pass on a 2 on 1 rather than covering it the traditional way? It almost seems too consistent to be poor decisions.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Forgive my ignorance, but was he ever looked upon as a solid point producer?

I've been under the impression Kasper's #1 attribute has always been his compete level...Danielson is the guy who'll eventually fill in as 1B or 2nd line center.

Honestly his production in Sweden isn't bad. He's definitely always had the "low offense" worry attached to him, and his biggest sell has always been his effort game. However, he has the tools to be a reasonably productive second line center if developed properly. The hope has always been that we develop him into a jack of all trades, defensive center that can hang with skill players type, rather than a pure 3rd line energy guy. We've been reasonably certain that he'd fill the 3rd line energy guy role since we drafted him. I (and I believe the team based on rhetoric) am still hoping that he can have that offensive element to his game.

Frankly, besides during the hype of a really good preseason last year, I've always felt that Danielson and Kasper are not far apart in terms of projection. I do see Danielson as a little riskier and with a slightly more naturally offensive game, but not much. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Kasper ends up the more productive player. I project both as ~70/30 for 3C/2C which puts us at about 49% to end up with 2 3Cs, 42% to end up with 1 2C and 1 3C, and 9% to have 2 2C quality players.

 

[jaster]

Honestly his production in Sweden isn't bad. He's definitely always had the "low offense" worry attached to him, and his biggest sell has always been his effort game. However, he has the tools to be a reasonably productive second line center if developed properly. The hope has always been that we develop him into a jack of all trades, defensive center that can hang with skill players type, rather than a pure 3rd line energy guy. We've been reasonably certain that he'd fill the 3rd line energy guy role since we drafted him. I (and I believe the team based on rhetoric) am still hoping that he can have that offensive element to his game.

Frankly, besides during the hype of a really good preseason last year, I've always felt that Danielson and Kasper are not far apart in terms of projection. I do see Danielson as a little riskier and with a slightly more naturally offensive game, but not much. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Kasper ends up the more productive player. I project both as ~70/30 for 3C/2C which puts us at about 49% to end up with 2 3Cs, 42% to end up with 1 2C and 1 3C, and 9% to have 2 2C quality players.

This pretty well encapsulates how I see them as well. There's very little separating them at this time. Both have questions about their offense and just how likely they are to reach 2C quality. Either could do it, and your %s seem reasonable to me. Marco has the better motor and Danielson has the better puck control, so they present as noticeably different players, but at the same time they have a lot in common.