GDT: Game #58: Oilers @ Bolts - 5:30 PM - SN1

[MoontoScott]

I’m a fan of Janmark. He was pretty good at the beginning of the season. He was at least putting up some apples. But he’s been pretty bad for awhile. And I’m not talking 5-10 games.

So many of the over 30 guys who got good contracts in the off season have been a disappointment. Perry is the only 1 who has approached expectations.

Sadly, a number of these guys are signed for next season.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

You had me until you included Kostin.
I completely agree with your premise but I think that adding a very limited player in Kostin (he cant even PK) with that contract he becomes more of a liability.
If Kostin could PK then I would be all in.

My point with Kostin is more so how such a low a bar would still be a massive upgrade to this team in terms of makeup.

 

[McDoused]

Crazy stat. McDavid 5v5 since January 19th has been on the ice for 3 GF and 12 GA. Worst on the team.

 

[guymez]

My point with Kostin is more so how such a low a bar would still be a massive upgrade to this team in terms of makeup.

Oh okay.
I agree with that.

 

[bone]

The team has never lost 4 in a row since Knoblach took over, so here's hoping they keep that alive and that the recent poundings have got the teams attention making they ready to start playing like they should for the final 25 games.

LA's now fully filling up the rearviewmirror trying looking for a passing lane and Vegas has a chance to pull away if Edmonton doesn't press on the throttle again.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

A team that emphasizes winning vs a team that is content to give retirement contracts to old guys that want to hop on for a cup run. Tampa got rid of Stamkos lol. Florida got rid of Huberdeau and Weegar to change the look of their franchise. Vegas got rid of Marchessault and Smith. Colorado moved on from Rantanen. Winning teams win because they prioritize winning. If you're not helping them win, see ya.

Contrast that with the "good local boy" talk from media about Skinner, or the Oilers babying players like Janmark, Henrique, Klingberg and Arvidsson who offer next to nothing. Look at how cup winners operate, and then look at the Oilers- you have your answer.

Continuity of management is a stark difference. Ability to sustain personnel via strong draft and development augmented by ability to move future assets to plug specific NHL roster needs. Then there's the Oilers decade of darkness and recent management groups continually dipping into futures to fix little Dutch boy roster leaks everywhere. The Jeff Jackson era began with talk of building a leading model organization with information based decision making, robust analytics support department, and draft and development at the heart of their process. Then the Summer of Jeff begat a smaller, older and lesser talented team highlighted by a penultimate asset management bungle of letting two young pedigree Stanley Cup steeled homegrown assets sit in a bull market to be poached. Hard to find redeeming value in this team's incremental need to find the margins solution to get all the way back and positioned to win that final Cup Final game.

Personally I don't worry about external media noise. Their function is storytelling good, bad and indifferent. The accountability lies with the guy's paid to make roster decisions and mold the sustainable window organization puffed about from the hiring's first press conference. Way more questions today than solutions since the super agent took the helm on a Game 7 Cup team.

 

[Heavy Dee]

Crazy stat. McDavid 5v5 since January 19th has been on the ice for 3 GF and 12 GA. Worst on the team.

Heard this. Inexcusable.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Crazy stat. McDavid 5v5 since January 19th has been on the ice for 3 GF and 12 GA. Worst on the team.

ZERO 5-on-5 points since January 27 against Seattle...8 games ago

hopefully tonight he has a huge game

 

[bone]

Game plan needs to be simple plays and good D. They need to get back to allowing low shots so all of the Skinner lovers can tell us how awesome he is!

If goaltending continues to deliver .750 or lower save percentages until the team is down 3 goals before making some saves, they can't allow any shots whatsoever.

 

[tardigrade81]

We got this

Maybe

 

[CycloneSweep]

This is actually a common misconception that players are bad because they haven't been putting up offensive numbers.

Henrique is actually our 4th best forward 5v5 in terms of GF% with 57.5%. He has been on the ice for 23 goals for and 17 goals against. He's done his job in that shutdown role. It's not like were matching him up against other teams bottom 6 and asking him to produce.

Arvidsson is actually our 5th best forward in terms of GF% with 57.1%. He has been on then ice got 24 goals for 5v5 but only 18 goals against.

Henrique has been more impressive playing away from McDrai while Arvidssons numbers in part look good because he's been in a top 6 role most of the season.

Skinner has been much better defensively. Since January 19th, he has been on the ice for 5 goals for 5v5 and only 2 goals against 5v5. The Oilers were caved against Washington while he was +1 with a goal.

He has our 4th best GF%, and our 3rd worst xGF% of our regulars. Has the 2nd highest PDO. So you can argue he has been bad but lucky. When Henrique was playing third line minutes before new years he was our 11th best forward in GF% and our third worst regular still in xGF%.
So really the only thing that he has changed is he is playing 4th line against other 4th lines in a reduced role. Since New Years he has been on for 9gf and 4 against for a 70% GF% but a second worst xGF of 50%. He is getting lucky but playing bad.

Arvidsson is tied with Henrique for 8th best goals/60 and is 9th for assists. All while playing HEAVILY with Draisaitl. Arvidsson is a decent to good possession player but his offence is almost non existent and is greatly overpaid for what he brings.

Skinner has been better lately.

Henrique is a fine player but not worth his contract. Arvidsson is a fine player but not worth his contract. Skinner is an enigma.

And it’s not a misconception that if you aren’t putting up points you are not good. If you are in the top 6 you have to produce. If you aren’t you are not a good top 6 player. Full stop. Arvidsson would be fine on a third line making a mill less. But we brought him in to be the solution for our missing top 6 winger problem and he is arguably one of the least effective guys in that role. He is 10th on the team in goals 5v5 on pace for 12, which is 5 less than the guy he replaced (Foegele) had last year. While playing more minutes in the top 6. Foegele averaged 12:21 a game 5v5, Arvidsson a whole minute more. And no one here thought Foegele was good enough for the top 6. We replaced Foegele with an older, worse more expensive Foegele.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Crazy stat. McDavid 5v5 since January 19th has been on the ice for 3 GF and 12 GA. Worst on the team.

Skinners fault

 

[Arpeggio]

McDavid definitely has to figure it out. He's looked quite bad by his standards for a while now. If it's injury, he should sit, but I feel like he probably would already be sitting if that was the case.

 

[K1984]

McDavid definitely has to figure it out. He's looked quite bad by his standards for a while now. If it's injury, he should sit, but I feel like he probably would already be sitting if that was the case.

I thought it was injury related, but he looked a lot more normal in the 4 Nations. The bursts he had in the Sweden game in particular haven't been seen here really all year. Still not sure if that was him pushing through an injury, or just simply playing with more focus due to the bigger games.

Either way, he either needs to take some games off if he is injured, or get his game going here. For this first time in his career, I would describe his game currently as just limp. Lazy turnovers, bad passes, not driving low, not driving outside, refusing to shoot, etc. His game right now is basically enter zone, skate around, turn it over on a risky pass or getting checked off the puck. Rinse and repeat.

He's had funks before, but he's never looked disinterested. Unfortunately I think that describes his game at the moment.

 

[elmeroil]

If goaltending continues to deliver .750 or lower save percentages until the team is down 3 goals before making some saves, they can't allow any shots whatsoever.

Skinner can usually win when they keep the majority of the shots to the outside. He usually bounces back after a bad game as well. I'm far from a Skinner supporter but if this is what they're sticking with they better get back to playing lights out defense to have any chance.

 

[McDoused]

Skinners fault

I mean part of it is. During that period the save % is only .8261 sv%.

But yes, McDavid's PDO during that period is the 2nd worst on the team (0.864) only behind Podkolzin.

He needs to start playing better plain and simple. He shouldnt have more high danger changes against (38) than for (32).

 

[oobga]

Well damn, didn't know Kings are 3 points back with 2 games in hand.

Can't let up at all.

 

[Oilhawks]

Shine is wearing off the Knob. Needs some polish

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Slowly knob has turned into a giant moron. Guy is living off his defensive structure right now cause all of his line up choices are beyond ass and he's out here f***ing over Skinner while pod arvidsson henrique do absolute f***ing nothing offensively

 

[Stoneman89]

Crazy stat. McDavid 5v5 since January 19th has been on the ice for 3 GF and 12 GA. Worst on the team.

According to one poster on here, he's been just fine.

 

[Soundwave]

According to one poster on here, he's been just fine.

People just think this guy is supposed to play 150% for this team every year and never get tired of the same shit problems every year (no goaltending, no second line scoring, and always poorly built rosters), maybe that isn't a smart assumption to make. He carries more of a burden here than probably any athlete in pro sports I think he is just tired of the same shit mentally.

I'd be curious to see how many of those 12GA were actually his fault too, probably not many. When you go to the tape you see it's the same collection of idiots making the primary mistakes on many of the GA (Skinner/Pickard, Bouchard, guys like RNH primarily).

 

[Soundwave]

Slowly knob has turned into a giant moron. Guy is living off his defensive structure right now cause all of his line up choices are beyond ass and he's out here f***ing over Skinner while pod arvidsson henrique do absolute f***ing nothing offensively

One wonders how much of the defensive structure is even Knob's. Could very well be that Coffey is the one doing basically all the work.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

People just think this guy is supposed to play 150% for this team every year and never get tired of the same shit problems every year (no goaltending, no second line scoring, and always poorly built rosters), maybe that isn't a smart assumption to make. He carries more of a burden here than probably any athlete in pro sports I think he is just tired of the same shit mentally.

I'd be curious to see how many of those 12GA were actually his fault too, probably not many. When you go to the tape you see it's the same collection of idiots making the primary mistakes on many of the GA (Skinner/Pickard, Bouchard, guys like RNH primarily).

you were wrong in the other thread you're wrong here

he's the ultimate competitor and never gives up on his team or teammates...no one cares more then him

he's just not working smart right now

 

[McDoused]

He has our 4th best GF%, and our 3rd worst xGF% of our regulars. Has the 2nd highest PDO. So you can argue he has been bad but lucky. When Henrique was playing third line minutes before new years he was our 11th best forward in GF% and our third worst regular still in xGF%.
So really the only thing that he has changed is he is playing 4th line against other 4th lines in a reduced role. Since New Years he has been on for 9gf and 4 against for a 70% GF% but a second worst xGF of 50%. He is getting lucky but playing bad.

Arvidsson is tied with Henrique for 8th best goals/60 and is 9th for assists. All while playing HEAVILY with Draisaitl. Arvidsson is a decent to good possession player but his offence is almost non existent and is greatly overpaid for what he brings.

Skinner has been better lately.

Henrique is a fine player but not worth his contract. Arvidsson is a fine player but not worth his contract. Skinner is an enigma.

And it’s not a misconception that if you aren’t putting up points you are not good. If you are in the top 6 you have to produce. If you aren’t you are not a good top 6 player. Full stop. Arvidsson would be fine on a third line making a mill less. But we brought him in to be the solution for our missing top 6 winger problem and he is arguably one of the least effective guys in that role. He is 10th on the team in goals 5v5 on pace for 12, which is 5 less than the guy he replaced (Foegele) had last year. While playing more minutes in the top 6. Foegele averaged 12:21 a game 5v5, Arvidsson a whole minute more. And no one here thought Foegele was good enough for the top 6. We replaced Foegele with an older, worse more expensive Foegele.

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. I can't be upset at guys for hypothetical goals against. When that PDO comes down and they are actually costing the team, then we can come back and revisit this.

Knoblauch coaches a defensive system and doesn't care about producing offence at the expense of defense.

You are definitely entitled to your opinion, but we don't agree here. I think you are expecting too much for players getting paid 3M, 3M and 4M respectively. Are they underperforming relative to expectations? Yes, I would agree with that. They were all supposed to be bargain deals for this year. We need guys that outperform their contracts.

I just don't think that's realistic given how Knoblauch has handled them. Skinner keeps getting scratched and has improved his game but it doesn't seem to matter. Henrique has been relegated into a 4C role being forced to play with guys like Janmark and Brown for most of the year. What more do you want from them?

Arvidsson, on the other hand I agree has been given every opportunity but hasn't produced. He's been good defensively, but you can't have both him AND Podkolzin in your top 6. Ironically, he's been one of our best players away from McDrai. Without either player hes been on the ice for 11GF and 4GA.

He isn't bad but he needs to start producing WITH McDrai or else you have yet another player (Skinner @3m and Henrique @3m) making too much money in a bottom 6 role.

 

[Soundwave]

you were wrong in the other thread you're wrong here

he's the ultimate competitor and never gives up on his team or teammates...no one cares more then him

he's just not working smart right now

Smart enough apparently to beat Team USA.

Mental fatigue is real, we really underestimated that it would just be simple to play into late June, have your heart ripped out, and just get back at it.

Making the Finals twice in a row is incredibly hard because of the mental side of it as much as the physical. The teams that have done it also were insulated by really good goaltending (Vasilevsky, Bob/Stolarz in Flordia, MAF + Murray in Pittsburgh) which gave their forward and D corps a break during stretches.

I expected a bit of a down year from him this year. He went through the ringer last year.