GDT: GAME 50 | Mighty Ducks @ Senators | Let's Go Streaking Edition | Thursday February 15th, 7PM | TSN5, RDS2

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's how I feel as well. It's pretty clear they are more committed to defense and have vastly improved their breakouts and neutral zone D. BUt what if the players just tune this out?

Who knows. I think they're learning how to win games and give yourself a chance every night so I'm going to choose to be optimistic.

Only time will tell I guess.

All I know is that I'm enjoying the games again and no longer have people running the team that lost my faith, so I'm remaining positive.

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

Sure... if you wanna talk negatives...

the 8-2-2 run has only moved them 1 position up the EC standings and 2 positions up the league standings - and they are only 5 points closer to the second wildcard spot but now have 3 less games in hand.

If you are an optimist though...

8-2-2 since Jan 12 is a 0.667 win%... which just happens to be the St. Louis Blues win percentage after Jan 2, 2019.

Maintaining that until the end of the year (22-8-3) would give them 93 points, which was good enough for wc1 last season.

So it doesn't matter what happened before now. Game vs Ducks needs to be win 1 of 22 and they give themself a chance

Go Sens!

"8-2-2 since Jan 12 is a 0.667 win%"

Even better, it's 0.750%.

"

 

[SanderSen]

The playoff chances are gone, likely see some subtraction at the trade deadline to clear cap and acquire assets for summer moves, but this team has me wanting to watch them again. I am actually looking forward to games instead of dreading them and just having the game on as background while I did something else.

 

[DrEasy]

Maybe we'll see some meaningful games in April instead of March? #babysteps

 

[Adele Dazeem]

14 points behind Detroit with 3 games in hand.
Whichever way you cut it they have to go on a crazy run.
It's doable but they can't drop easy 2 points like this one.

February must win: ANA, CHI, TB/FLA, DAL/VGK, WSH, NSH
can lose: TB/FLA and DAL/VGK
6-2-0
total: 28-27-2

March must win: ARI, PHI, ANA, SJS, PIT, CLB, NYI, CAR, STL, NJ, EDM, BUF, CHI
can lose: LA, BOS, WIN
13-3-0
total: 41-30-2

April must win: MIN, FLA, NJ, WSH, FLA/TB, MTL, NYR/BOS
can lose: FLA/TB, NYR/BOS
7-2-0
total: 48-32-2

 

[PlayersLtd]

We need to go about 23-10 over our next 33 games to make the playoffs. (92 points)

It means we'll have to play at roughly the same winning percentage as a top 3 team in the leage to close out the rest of the season. So like Dallas or Boston good.

So we can only drop 10 more games.

Tall order, but I'm in. Go Sens Go!

Not to be a downer but if DET maintains their pace they finish with 94.62 pts. 92 won't be the cutoff, 94 at least. We can do it nonetheless. We are 8 pts back if we assume we win the games in hand. Detroit is on the road with VAN, SEA, CGY and COL (home) coming up. Let's hope they lay an egg this week. Will need a buffer as they finish the season with back to back against MTL. Just gotta go 8-2 over the next ten and turn that 8 pts behind into 5.

 

[Larionov]

Definitely need them next week.

Monday - TB
Tuesday - Cats
Thursday - Dallas
Saturday - Vegas

Next week is the acid test. Let's see if we can beat some legit top shelf teams and on a compressed schedule at that...

 

[bert]

Definitely need them next week.

Monday - TB
Tuesday - Cats
Thursday - Dallas
Saturday - Vegas

Murderers row. Florida are playing out of their minds right now. They play like they did Tuesday they won't even get a point. Hopefully the bad habits are gone tonight.

What's going on with the D core tonight. Can't go 5 again can they?

 

[Micklebot]

Murderers row. Florida are playing out of their minds right now. They play like they did Tuesday they won't even get a point. Hopefully the bad habits are gone tonight.

What's going on with the D core tonight. Can't go 5 again can they?

They can make an emergency recall if Zub isn't ready, and that recall won't count against the cap.

I haven't seen anything yet, but they probably have someone on notice.

 

[Slippy]

We need to go about 23-10 over our next 33 games to make the playoffs. (92 points)

It means we'll have to play at roughly the same winning percentage as a top 3 team in the leage to close out the rest of the season. So like Dallas or Boston good.

So we can only drop 10 more games.

Tall order, but I'm in. Go Sens Go!

The Wings, who currently hold the final playoff spot, are on pace for 96 points.

 

[SanderSen]

14 points behind Detroit with 3 games in hand.
Whichever way you cut it they have to go on a crazy run.
It's doable but they can't drop easy 2 points like this one.

February must win: ANA, CHI, TB/FLA, DAL/VGK, WSH, NSH
can lose: TB/FLA and DAL/VGK
6-2-0
total: 28-27-2

March must win: ARI, PHI, ANA, SJS, PIT, CLB, NYI, CAR, STL, NJ, EDM, BUF, CHI
can lose: LA, BOS, WIN
13-3-0
total: 41-30-2

April must win: MIN, FLA, NJ, WSH, FLA/TB, MTL, NYR/BOS
can lose: FLA/TB, NYR/BOS
7-2-0
total: 48-32-2

I expect some players will be gone at the trade deadline, which will weaken the team for the rest of the season. Better to get some assets and cap space to make the future better than roll with a pretty well no chance hope.

 

[Micklebot]

Good news, the Ducks were embarrassed by the Habs 5-0 and held to 13 shots last game... they'll be sure to be an ornery group, we can't sleep on this one as I'm sure they're going to be hungry.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

We need to go about 23-10 over our next 33 games to make the playoffs. (92 points)

It means we'll have to play at roughly the same winning percentage as a top 3 team in the leage to close out the rest of the season. So like Dallas or Boston good.

So we can only drop 10 more games.

Tall order, but I'm in. Go Sens Go!

I’ll take that bet.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

"8-2-2 since Jan 12 is a 0.667 win%"

Even better, it's 0.750%.

"

The NHL dropped the use of Winning Percentage many years ago, when they introduced the Loser point for teams losing in OT/SO, and began using Points Percentage

 

[jbeck5]

It’s insane how the sens are 8-2-2 and haven’t moved a smidge up the standings and still sit at the bottom. This league is tough

That's because good teams put up those streaks semi regularly while we do it once a year. Maybe twice if we're lucky.

That and when the good teams are playing poorly, they're still winning 4-5 games in a 10 game sample...not 2 like us.

Rinse and repeat all season long and you get to a point where you can't get out of the hole.

A few days ago I looked at the last 10 and 3 of the playoff teams had better last 10s and 3 of them had within a point of us....only 2 did we make any real gains on.

And there's only 3 more 10-game samples.

Not enough time when you're like 16 points out of a playoff spot or whatever.

 

[jbeck5]

We need to go about 23-10 over our next 33 games to make the playoffs. (92 points)

It means we'll have to play at roughly the same winning percentage as a top 3 team in the leage to close out the rest of the season. So like Dallas or Boston good.

So we can only drop 10 more games.

Tall order, but I'm in. Go Sens Go!

The last playoff team is pacing for 95 points.

We would need probably 4, and maybe even 6 more points then your pace.

So 25-8 or 26-7 to be safe.

It's not happening. We would have to get insane goaltending to even get anywhere near that record.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Guenette definitely deserves a callup.



No Sanderson for sure. Looks like No Zub again. That right side is looking pretty AHL ish. HamoNMC is still the weak link.

 

[jbeck5]

The good news is if we can recreate that record over the next 12 games we'll be right in the mix for a wildcard spot.

Did it once. Now do it again.

What? We've barely gained with that last 12. We're still second last In the conference...28th in the league.

You have to remember most of the teams were chasing are likely to have a winning record in that 12 game sample as well.

The NHL site standings page let's you turn back the date.

We are 14 points out of the last wild card spot.

12 games ago (January 12th, at 37 GP) we were 19 points back with 6 games in hand.

Now we're 14 points out (gain of 5) but only 3 games in hand.

So we lost 3 games in hand to gain 5 points.

Good, but still pretty unrealistic to expect us to make up that ground. We'd have to play like a presidents trophy team the rest of the way.

Vancouver is the top team with 78 points over 54 GP.

If the sens played at that pace for the last 33 GP, they would get 48 more points...to add to their 46, to give them 94 points. 94 points is pacing to miss the playoffs.

So in conclusion, we have to play at a pace better than the current first place team for the rest of the year to make the playoffs.

What are the odds the sens have the best record for the second half of the year. Not very strong.

 

[scallionjj11]

It’s insane how the sens are 8-2-2 and haven’t moved a smidge up the standings and still sit at the bottom. This league is tough

yeah..... really crazy.....

 

[jbeck5]

That's fair.

You know, I probably would too, but JM and Alfie have my confidence and they'll have to prove me wrong to lose it. DJ never had mine in the first place, certainly nowhere near the level they command, and never changed my mind otherwise in his time here. That doesn't mean I'm going to kick and scream and call him a bozo either though.

I also just feel like I'm watching a completely different team out there, both as a group and individually. The 4th line, the goaltending, the support for each other in general. And many of the players have spoken about it pretty openly.

I'm being cautious too.

The last few seasons have taught me it's a lot easier for you to have no expectations and get wins then it is to have expectations and be disappointed by losses.

Like the other poster has said, we've seen late season winning streaks where everyones stats look good, and they look more structured, dominating the play. We've seen it before, and that's exactly why we've predicted big gains.

We've always come back down to earth. I still get worried we'll give up a bunch of easy goals and lose momentum and lose games. We're still allowing weak goals. Do either of your goalies give you confidence when the other team has all the momentum?

It's gonna take more than a 10-12 game sample size to make sure the ship has been righted. Heck, it will take more than 30-40 games.

 

[Tuna99]

Sens went out and Senzed Morgan Reilly one game and then the next game they Senzed Jarmo Kekkolinan.

Who on Anaheim is about to get Senzed?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

No Zub at practice.

 

[jbeck5]

14 points behind Detroit with 3 games in hand.
Whichever way you cut it they have to go on a crazy run.
It's doable but they can't drop easy 2 points like this one.

February must win: ANA, CHI, TB/FLA, DAL/VGK, WSH, NSH
can lose: TB/FLA and DAL/VGK
6-2-0
total: 28-27-2

March must win: ARI, PHI, ANA, SJS, PIT, CLB, NYI, CAR, STL, NJ, EDM, BUF, CHI
can lose: LA, BOS, WIN
13-3-0
total: 41-30-2

April must win: MIN, FLA, NJ, WSH, FLA/TB, MTL, NYR/BOS
can lose: FLA/TB, NYR/BOS
7-2-0
total: 48-32-2

They need to win like 4 out of every 5 games.


That means every loss needs to be accompanied by 4 wins.

They lose 2 or 3 and they gotta win 8-12 games to make up for those 2-3 losses.

Basically, any loss almost kills our chances...and we have over 30 games left. 30 games to almost lose only a handful.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Guenette coming up.

 

[Alex1234]

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