Game #4: FLAMES (3-0-0) vs. SABRES (2-1-0)7:30 p.m. MT | TV: Sportsnet

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That was a messy game. Can't wait until you're down 4-1 to start pressuring. Neither Flame goalie was over .900. As far as games to lose I wouldn't get too upset on this one, Eastern opponent with something to prove, but way too many slot chances allowed by the home side. Defense was questionable with two pairings seeing their first action together, and the forwards didn't help out much either.

Good : Backlund I thought was the best forward, was the only center creating anything positive offensively. Do wish he could have buried one of those tho. Stone played well for his role. Weegar probly our best dman which wasn't saying much. Huberdeau I thought played well, Buffalo didn't give him much space. Still acclimating I'd say.

Not bad : Toffoli.. is just not quite it is he. If he was just a little bit better this team would be complete. But can't fault the effort. Lewis typical Lewis game, didn't make many mistakes, scored a gimme goal. Vladar was fine in relief. Andersson couldn't get much done, looked uncomfortable playing with Zadorov. Dube? Kadri was just ok, didn't have a big impact.

Not good : Lindholm has low key been junk so far this year. At least by his standards. Zad you just can't take that penalty in the third, even if it was kind of soft. Nice snipe tho. Mackey definitely played, looked in his head 2nd guessing himself a lot. Mangiapane a team worst -3, scored in the first and then held on to the puck too long and was reaching defensively. Coleman hit the net dude, like 4 good chances he missed high on the short side.

Bad : Markstrom looks off. Not too concerned 4 games into the season but when he's on he's aggressively cutting down angles and proactive. So far in his starts he's been sitting on his goal line. Might have been the worst game I've seen Tanev play in a Flames uniform.

Really really bad : Rooney, another nothing UFA signing. Just skated around with his head up his ass. Ruz in next game please. Lucic's 1100th game was one to forget. He was brutal
 
That was a straight trap game but credit to a young and talented Sabres team. All those goals were incredibly well placed shots and high skill plays. We gave them far too much room and played into their speed game. This will be a good wake up call for this team who seemingly underestimated the other side. You can’t do that in this league anymore. Future is bright in Buffalo.

I’m honestly not too worried about it, outside of Markstrom. He’s paid too make the big saves and simply hasn’t been doing so. On to the next.
 
Elias Lindholm where are you?! This guy has stunk at both ends of the ice and looks completely disinterested. He’s been the teams largest disappointment through 4 games.

I agree. Thought tofolli was the major problem at first, but he’s been just as bad.
 
Cold take alert: Lindholm was propped up offensively to a large degree by Gaudreau. Just look at the way Kadri drives the play versus how Lindholm plays.

Not a big deal though because I have a hard imagining Huberdeau and Lindholm won't eventually develop some chemistry. The problem is that line doesn't work as constructed because it's two shooters and a playmaker. They need someone to do all the dirty work like winning board battles and grinding it out.
 
Cold take alert: Lindholm was propped up offensively to a large degree by Gaudreau. Just look at the way Kadri drives the play versus how Lindholm plays.

Not a big deal though because I have a hard imagining Huberdeau and Lindholm won't eventually develop some chemistry. The problem is that line doesn't work as constructed because it's two shooters and a playmaker. They need someone to do all the dirty work like winning board battles and grinding it out.

Mangiapane on the top line then you mean?
 
Well that result stunk, but we didn't move our feet or keep possession of the puck at all. Sabres scored some nice goals that no goalie is stopping. Leaky defense on our part. That Zadorov goal gave us a ton of momentum and then the Zadorov penalty took it all away. Hopefully we beat a tired Hurricanes team.

You said it.
 
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It's super early to make huge lasting judgements on players, but, some takes so far:

- I don't think Huby can carry a team and make offense happen on his own like Johnny could/can. On a bad night Gaudreau would generate 2 or 3 grade A chances; a good night 5,6, 10 whatever. Huberdeau probably was a little more a product of Barkov and the system there than a primary generator of the teams offense. Again, early and we'll likely see more positives yet. But I'm guessing the contract may feel bloated as Hubs settles in as a 70 to 80 pt guy. Just a gut feeling.

- In keeping with that last statement, I don't think Lindholm was as good as he was made out to be. Maybe a A- to B+ without Gaudreau and Tkachuk. My bet is Backlund playing with Johnny and Chucky on a regular basis would have looked like a Selke candidate too.

- Which leads me to Tkachuk/Toffoli talk. I still think Matthew was underappreciated as to the elite talent he is. I didn't get overly critical of him in last years playoffs even though yes he was sub-par for him against the Oilers. But, as far as the larger body of work and what he brought to the first line, Tkachuk had/has: strong board presence (big ass, strong on his stick, surprising confidence with the puck) good decision maker, good puck handler (really surprising to me how he grew in that area), good passer, competent skater (grew a lot in this area also), good around the net, good anticipation and other high end qualities. That's what's missing right now from the first line. We're trying to have Toffoli fill that role. Tyler basically has good hockey sense/anticipation/positional awareness, a large enough body that he makes room and finds space around the net. But, unfortunately, Toffoli's hands/stick is no longer strong in puck/board battles, he lacks good puck control skills, his passing is very borderline at best and he's pretty slow/loses explosive energy really quickly into a shift.

So that's the first line in a nutshell for me. Time will tell if they can gel into a proper condender first line. But I'd slide Toffoli down to the 3rd line with 2nd PP unit time. Unfortunately all of his replacements would be diminutive in Coleman, Mangi or even Dube. We should probably be using Ruzicka more.

- As far as our defense, we still have speed issues. We miss Kylington but hopefully when he comes back he loses some of his Bambi on ice ways. And Hanafin continues to be hit and miss as far as being dependable. It seems no matter how good we look for stretches our D reverts to looking slow and outmatched against fast-skating, young clubs.

All in all it feels like we're a power winger away and a competent top 4 defenseman away.
 
I certainly think Lindholm is as good as he has shown previously but he absolutely looks a step or two behind the play so far this season, and I think he more than anyone else has a difficult time playing with Toffoli. On more than a few occasions last night he was made to look silly one on one in the defensive zone and that's just not a normal thing for him. He will come around.

As far as this team needing another top four defensemen. That's ridiculous. It was one game, and we had two capable top four defenders out of the lineup. These game are going to happen, and more than once or twice over the course of the season. It's the NHL. If you are not ready to go by puck drop as a team you then it's going to be a long night. Everyone is far too skilled these days to be taking nights off. There are no freebies.
 
It's super early to make huge lasting judgements on players, but, some takes so far:

- I don't think Huby can carry a team and make offense happen on his own like Johnny could/can. On a bad night Gaudreau would generate 2 or 3 grade A chances; a good night 5,6, 10 whatever. Huberdeau probably was a little more a product of Barkov and the system there than a primary generator of the teams offense. Again, early and we'll likely see more positives yet. But I'm guessing the contract may feel bloated as Hubs settles in as a 70 to 80 pt guy. Just a gut feeling.

- In keeping with that last statement, I don't think Lindholm was as good as he was made out to be. Maybe a A- to B+ without Gaudreau and Tkachuk. My bet is Backlund playing with Johnny and Chucky on a regular basis would have looked like a Selke candidate too.

- Which leads me to Tkachuk/Toffoli talk. I still think Matthew was underappreciated as to the elite talent he is. I didn't get overly critical of him in last years playoffs even though yes he was sub-par for him against the Oilers. But, as far as the larger body of work and what he brought to the first line, Tkachuk had/has: strong board presence (big ass, strong on his stick, surprising confidence with the puck) good decision maker, good puck handler (really surprising to me how he grew in that area), good passer, competent skater (grew a lot in this area also), good around the net, good anticipation and other high end qualities. That's what's missing right now from the first line. We're trying to have Toffoli fill that role. Tyler basically has good hockey sense/anticipation/positional awareness, a large enough body that he makes room and finds space around the net. But, unfortunately, Toffoli's hands/stick is no longer strong in puck/board battles, he lacks good puck control skills, his passing is very borderline at best and he's pretty slow/loses explosive energy really quickly into a shift.

So that's the first line in a nutshell for me. Time will tell if they can gel into a proper condender first line. But I'd slide Toffoli down to the 3rd line with 2nd PP unit time. Unfortunately all of his replacements would be diminutive in Coleman, Mangi or even Dube. We should probably be using Ruzicka more.

- As far as our defense, we still have speed issues. We miss Kylington but hopefully when he comes back he loses some of his Bambi on ice ways. And Hanafin continues to be hit and miss as far as being dependable. It seems no matter how good we look for stretches our D reverts to looking slow and outmatched against fast-skating, young clubs.

All in all it feels like we're a power winger away and a competent top 4 defenseman away.
Hanifin wasn't even playing, and our D was nothing short of great against Vegas and Colorado. Our D is our biggest strength, games like last night will just happen from time to time.

Weegar-Tanev
Hanifin-Raz
Zad-Stone/Kylington/Mackey

Is amazing. Top-3/5 in the league. We have no need for a top-4D.

As for Tkachuk, he would have not been able to create his own offense last night and his lack of foot speed would have been exposed (just like Toffoli). Obviously Tkachuk>Toffoli, but Tkachuk would have made barely any difference on the game last night. So many times we were left frustrated in past years and Tkachuk is not just singlehandedly going to change that. Maybe he gets one assist (just like Kadri or Hubes), but not a game changer. Huberdeau is definitely leaving a lot to be desired, but he did set up a great goal last night and had 2-3 other grade A chances. We are one top-6 power winger away from being complete, I agree, but missing Tkachuk is not the problem. We upgraded on him with Kadri + Weegar.

Games like that will happen, we just were a step behind all night. We just gotta get back to playing our game and eventually upgrade that RW spot in the top-6 at the deadline with all the cap we accrue this year
 
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Huberdeau is a great player who can slow the game down. So many times he’s set up a play that the line couldn’t finish. The problem is no one on that line is a good puck carrier. Lindholm for all his greatness hasn’t shown it even when he had an 82 pt season, though im surprised he’s struggling so much.

Anyways it seemed obvious to me that line wasn’t going to work as it was constructed and so far I haven’t been proven wrong. Maybe the coaching staff should stop trying to square peg…
 
Huberdeau is a great player who can slow the game down. So many times he’s set up a play that the line couldn’t finish. The problem is no one on that line is a good puck carrier. Lindholm for all his greatness hasn’t shown it even when he had an 82 pt season, though im surprised he’s struggling so much.

Anyways it seemed obvious to me that line wasn’t going to work as it was constructed and so far I haven’t been proven wrong. Maybe the coaching staff should stop trying to square peg…

Top line rocking a PDO of .909 together, on-ice shooting % of 0%.
Sitting with the like of Calvin De Haan, Erik Gudbranson; and the likes of Nolan Patrick and Loui Eriksson last year.

xGF% is right near 60% with those three together, and while it's the bottom of the top 9... that top 9 is also prolific in terms of possession with some the best in the NHL (Backlund, Coleman, Kadri and Magiapane).

What this is telling me, is if they continue to play the way they are, the points will start coming at ES. Huberdeau and Lindholm are career 10% On-Ice SH% players. If you normalize that to the average, that'd be an addition 2.5 goals (3 goals) scored at even strength so far this year.

Lindholm has struggled to me a bit, I think the ask for him on the defensive side has been tough; Huberdeau is not an defensive stalwart, and Toffoli is okay, but not overly fast.
 
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Hanifin wasn't even playing, and our D was nothing short of great against Vegas and Colorado. Our D is our biggest strength, games like last night will just happen from time to time.

Weegar-Tanev
Hanifin-Raz
Zad-Stone/Kylington/Mackey

Is amazing. Top-3/5 in the league. We have no need for a top-4D.

As for Tkachuk, he would have not been able to create his own offense last night and his lack of foot speed would have been exposed (just like Toffoli). Obviously Tkachuk>Toffoli, but Tkachuk would have made barely any difference on the game last night. So many times we were left frustrated in past years and Tkachuk is not just singlehandedly going to change that. Maybe he gets one assist (just like Kadri or Hubes), but not a game changer. Huberdeau is definitely leaving a lot to be desired, but he did set up a great goal last night and had 2-3 other grade A chances. We are one top-6 power winger away from being complete, I agree, but missing Tkachuk is not the problem. We upgraded on him with Kadri + Weegar.

Games like that will happen, we just were a step behind all night. We just gotta get back to playing our game and eventually upgrade that RW spot in the top-6 at the deadline with all the cap we accrue this year

I know Hanafin wasn't playing last night. But in his previous 3 games he hasn't shown anything different than the past.

*edit - I do like the Weegar addition on D though. Forgot to mention him.
 
Top line rocking a PDO of .909 together, on-ice shooting % of 0%.
Sitting with the like of Calvin De Haan, Erik Gudbranson; and the likes of Nolan Patrick and Loui Eriksson last year.

xGF% is right near 60% with those three together, and while it's the bottom of the top 9... that top 9 is also prolific in terms of possession with some the best in the NHL (Backlund, Coleman, Kadri and Magiapane).

What this is telling me, is if they continue to play the way they are, the points will start coming at ES. Huberdeau and Lindholm are career 10% On-Ice SH% players. If you normalize that to the average, that'd be an addition 2.5 goals (3 goals) scored at even strength so far this year.

Lindholm has struggled to me a bit, I think the ask for him on the defensive side has been tough; Huberdeau is not an defensive stalwart, and Toffoli is okay, but not overly fast.

Is the xGF that high? I’d be stunned based off what I’d observed. At ES they’ve been our worst line at controlling possession according to hockey reference. Are in the low to mid 40s in regards to cf%.
 
Just to reiterate a single point, I don't think people realize what a huge piece Tkachuk was. Even when Sutter dropped him back to the second line once in awhile he didn't even miss a beat. That power presence who can get and control the puck along the boards in the offensive end is key. Plus he had confidence on the PP (and offensive generally) and could be relied upon pretty much to the extent Johnny was.
 
Is the xGF that high? I’d be stunned based off what I’d observed. At ES they’ve been our worst line at controlling possession according to hockey reference. Are in the low to mid 40s in regards to cf%.

Lindholm is sitting at an xGF% of 31.9% at even strength, While Toffoli and Huberdeau are both above 50.

Toffoli/Huberdeau have an xGF% of 86.04% without Lindholm albeit in 8 1/2 minutes of ice time.

Lindy needs to get his ass in gear.
 
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Is the xGF that high? I’d be stunned based off what I’d observed. At ES they’ve been our worst line at controlling possession according to hockey reference. Are in the low to mid 40s in regards to cf%.

1666373261217.png


This is SVA, pre-SVA it was 57.66%.

47.16% CF% is bad for this team, but it's also not treacherous bad when you're still dominating high danger chances.

I'm not saying these guys are perfect, because clearly there's a lot of room for improvement... But the signs point to them being a productive line as a trio. I'm not a massive fan of Toffoli, as people likely already know full well; but to me he also has value as the RW there just in terms of flipping him over in the summer to recoup some assets and open cap.
 
That was a straight trap game but credit to a young and talented Sabres team. All those goals were incredibly well placed shots and high skill plays. We gave them far too much room and played into their speed game. This will be a good wake up call for this team who seemingly underestimated the other side. You can’t do that in this league anymore. Future is bright in Buffalo.

I’m honestly not too worried about it, outside of Markstrom. He’s paid too make the big saves and simply hasn’t been doing so. On to the next.

I missed watching the game, but I can't help but wonder if the Buffalo's style is actually our Achilles heel. It might be a good one to watch the tape on and develop some strategies against.

That being said, Buffalo should be decently solid, especially in the coming few years. Considering them easy points is probably a bad mentality to start with.
 
At some point this season Darryl is going to have try numerous youngsters up front. Lewis is what he is; he ain't getting better. He's sound defensively but he's an anchor offensively to Backlund and Coleman. If you move him down one and Ritchie to pressbox then that 4th line is a bit more dependable. Right now the lineup screams Ruzicka in, Ritchie out. Yep Ritchie hasn't been terrible but need some skill in there.
 

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