GDT: Game 39. Sharks need to douse the Flames 7pm

[Dicdonya]

1. While the record is similar, the goal differential and competitiveness in games has been much higher. This is evident in the stats, from the eye test, and from what other coaches and players are saying about the team. 21 games so far decided by one goal.
2. The structure is better, although last night wasn't a great example.
3. Every time I see someone complain about line combos, within 2-3 games we see a change that tries the thing. Generally he has been very willing to try new things, and to the extent any line isn't awesome, it's usually an injury problem, or a decision like last night that is critique-worthy but probably not winning is the game (Kovalenko for Goodrow). Great example, two games ago many people were very mad about Smith being stuck in the bottom 6. He's been stapled to Celebrini since, and I don't think the line possesses the puck as well as 72-71-73 or -20, but Smith looks a lot better. Instead of saying "I'm glad Warso made the change," lots of whining about Goodrow or "why'd he take so long" when we were also nearly winning 6 of the last 7 games, deserving or no.
4. It's a better lineup, but marginally so. He's got the team playing better hockey, circling back to #1. PP is better, PK is better, 5v5 is better, there is a system in place even if that system yields too many shots against, is still better than last year. Complaints like "there's no offensive flow or possession" are only true about the last few games when, as I have repeatedly stated, we are missing our best LW and our #1D. The team has a low skill ceiling and so the margin for error is thin. You play good teams with a bad lineup with injuries, you're going to have a very thin margin for error. That doesn't really fall on the coach.

More generally, everyone loves to complain about the coach and the third and fourth liners. It's been like this on HFB since I can remember. In a cap era, it's a rare team that doesn't have some dud replacement players in the bottom 6 and the team's success rarely hinges on them. Coaches can be extremely bad or extremely good but the vast majority of them are probably replacement level average themselves in terms of tactics, line combos, and game management. Fans want someone to blame when the reality is, most of the time, the team you're rooting for just isn't very good.

Thank you for the response.

1- While its true that our goal differential is better this year I do not know that I would attribute that to coaching over roster improvements.

First off I would argue that because our team is overall better this year, the goal differential should be better just by that alone. Our defense is definitely better staffed than last year, especially when Walman is in the lineup. Our goalies are about the same, since Askarov has not played too many games yet, and our forward core is better than last year.

Next while our total goal differential is better, our expected goal differential is barely better than last year. 41.83 vs 43.28 this year at 5v5. So it seems like some luck and/or good performances from guys like Askarov and Blackwood are tilting the ice a bit in our favor in terms of actual goals being scored vs expected.

Now unless you do disagree with me that this team is better than last years on paper, seeing a relatively minor boost in goal differential, does not to me indicate that Warsofsky is any better than Quinn. Since we should expect a bump from the better team, and then another bump from better coaching. I simply do not think that is apparent. I think our team is more competitive and in more hard fought games this year because we have a better team.

2- Can you explain this, like what structure do you see? I simply do not see whatever it is you are seeing but that may be a me issue.

3- On this I will say I do not think its a Warsofsky issue in particular, I have always hated any coach that does the line blender thing consistently, and Warsofsky is certainly not as bad as some other coaches because he is at least willing to try stuff like Celebrini/Smith, where I feel some older coaches would line blender but be very reluctant to put two young players like that together. So while I personally think using the line blender often is a useless exercise most of the time, it is also something another coach might do anyways.

4- I think you and I may disagree about how marginal the difference in the roster is, which may be a factor in why you have a fonder opinion of War than me.

I think outside of Celebrini our forward core is about the same as last year, however adding Celebrini is a massive addition. He tilts the ice so often in these games, that without him I have no doubt this teams goal differential would be substantially worse, going back to point 1 not really indicating the coach is primary factor in the better differential.

In fact as long as I didn't do my counting/math wrong, we were -19 in the 12 games Celebrini was out, which means that in the remaining 27 games we are -14. That is a substantial difference, and one that Warsofsky is benefitting from over Quinn's team last year.

Also our defense is way better, especially with Walman in the lineup. He is better by a mile than anyone we iced last year, and I think guys like Muhk and Liljegren are better than anyone of the guys we had in the lineup last year like Vlasic, Addison, Macdonald, Burroughs, Okhotiuk etc. So while our defense is still a work in progress, just having 6 NHL caliber Dmen actually playing at once is something we did not have last year, and Walman really tilts this years defense compared to last year.

To me going into this year with the roster changes, I would have considered this a team that would be a like 3-7th sorta team as long as Celebrini was a good 1st OA type player, which luckily he is. If we had a particularly good coach I could have seen us pushing more like top 10ish type team.

So for us to be the absolute worst team again, well yeah....maybe that makes it a bit more understandable why I do not think our coach has done a particularly good job.

 

[CHALUPA]

To me going into this year with the roster changes, I would have considered this a team that would be a like 3-7th sorta team as long as Celebrini was a good 1st OA type player, which luckily he is. If we had a particularly good coach I could have seen us pushing more like top 10ish type team.

So for us to be the absolute worst team again, well yeah....maybe that makes it a bit more understandable why I do not think our coach has done a particularly good job.

This difference in expectations is probably the source of all the arguments. People who are saying to “chill”, expected this to still be the worst team in the league.

While I agree this team’s roster is stronger than last year’s, I don’t think it’s enough to make a marginal difference in the standings. It’s basically the difference between being on of the worst teams ever vs. just a bad team. I think there has still been great progress from last year though, so even though this losing spell sucks, I’m very optimistic for the future.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I never cheer per se for a loss. In fact, I enjoy the few wins that we get more because they are so infrequent. But I look at this team consistently struggle both to not play in their own end and to maintain possession in the other team's offensive zone and that goddamn awful power play and I realize that the only thing that's gonna remove that stench is more impact players. So even if it's not fun watching them lose most of their games, it's necessary for them to add another high draft pick.

I do agree. I have become a little delusional by some of the wins this group has gathered this season. Celebrini has brought that "we can still be in this game" vibe since he came here. The goal differential has gotten better and everything is going according to a said plan to get a little better. Celebrini being on point per game on this environment is a very good sign. Just to think what he could do with a solid team just makes it worth the wait.

 

[Dicdonya]

This difference in expectations is probably the source of all the arguments. People who are saying to “chill”, expected this to still be the worst team in the league.

While I agree this team’s roster is stronger than last year’s, I don’t think it’s enough to make a marginal difference in the standings. It’s basically the difference between being on of the worst teams ever vs. just a bad team. I think there has still been great progress from last year though, so even though this losing spell sucks, I’m very optimistic for the future.

Yeah that is probably true, its also why the "chill bro" people are so irksome. If I wanted twitter length responses I would post on twitter.

I responded above for why I think this team is not only marginally better so I wont rehash it in this response but it definitely seems like that is where the issue is between my thoughts and some others.

I will also say, part of what has me more on edge about the coaching, is that we are in what I consider the most important phase of the rebuild, where we are getting in our future franchise prospects, the ones we need to hit on, and have grow to or above their draft potential, so I am simply concerned more than usual about whether or not our coach is setting them on the right path in their NHL career. If he turns out to be a bad/barely passable coach in the end, that could really really hurt our rebuild if we decide that because he is a rookie we want to give him a few seasons to find out how good or bad he is.

 

[The Nemesis]

To me going into this year with the roster changes, I would have considered this a team that would be a like 3-7th sorta team as long as Celebrini was a good 1st OA type player, which luckily he is. If we had a particularly good coach I could have seen us pushing more like top 10ish type team.

With respect, this is a crazy overestimation of the team's upward mobility potential. One player does not move the needle that much no matter how good they are and the next biggest addition was Toffoli, who is a support scoring piece miscast into a top-line role. This was always still going to still be an absolutely terrible team with no depth, no defensive corps, and uneven goaltending.

They were always still going to suck this season. Maybe not be the worst team in the league (and they aren't) but still probably in the bottom 5 (which they are)

 

[CHALUPA]

I will also say, part of what has me more on edge about the coaching, is that we are in what I consider the most important phase of the rebuild, where we are getting in our future franchise prospects, the ones we need to hit on, and have grow to or above their draft potential, so I am simply concerned more than usual about whether or not our coach is setting them on the right path in their NHL career. If he turns out to be a bad/barely passable coach in the end, that could really really hurt our rebuild if we decide that because he is a rookie we want to give him a few seasons to find out how good or bad he is.

Yeah I feel you. We’re looking at different signals, which is why I’m happy with Warsofsky and you’re not.

 

[CHALUPA]

Hijacking this thread for a more important discussion:

I have blank Cali fin and white away jerseys. Which one gets Askarov and which one gets Celebrini? I don’t think Askarov has worn the Cali fin yet, right?

 

[The Nemesis]

Hijacking this thread for a more important discussion:

I have blank Cali fin and white away jerseys. Which one gets Askarov and which one gets Celebrini? I don’t think Askarov has worn the Cali fin yet, right?

Go for Rutta.

 

[jarr92]

Im over Warsofsky, the fact that he didnt bench 90% of the team this game for repeatedly trying to no look back hand pass into space is a warcrime. Yes I am being hyperbolic but it does piss me off none the less.

This team should be playing in straight lines outside of Celebrini, and never be no look back hand passing to open ice just praying one of our players is actually reading a play correctly. They wont be

None of our players seem to be growing, and several seem to be regressing or playing worse than early in the year, I see no change in the scheme or how the team plays after Warsofsky has had half a season to install his coaching on the team and I am just over him as a coach.

We seem to run no set plays, there seems to be no actual method to the madness on the ice for this team, we only score when individual players do individually good things. Nothing seems to be happening because our coach drew it up that way.

Also I am sick and tired of him allowing our low skilled team to pass up a billion shot attempts per game because they would rather try to make a piss poor pass attempt to someone that isn't even that open anyways.

I was really hoping some fresh blood at the coaching position would yield some promising results, but at this point I do not think it has, and really want us to look for a new coach moving forward.

/end rant

Some of his lineup decisions have been weird, but you're mad because he isn't benching 90% of the team? What's he supposed to do and what is that going to accomplish? If all of the players are doing the pass into space from the boards, isn't it possible that is part of his system? Although I agree with you it does often result in a turnover, and has not been very effective. The team was -1.78 in +/- per game last year, and are -.85 in +/- this year. So far there has been clear improvement IMO.

 

[Dicdonya]

With respect, this is a crazy overestimation of the team's upward mobility potential. One player does not move the needle that much no matter how good they are and the next biggest addition was Toffoli, who is a support scoring piece miscast into a top-line role. This was always still going to still be an absolutely terrible team with no depth, no defensive corps, and uneven goaltending.

They were always still going to suck this season. Maybe not be the worst team in the league (and they aren't) but still probably in the bottom 5 (which they are)

I mean I did say 3 to 7 just from the roster, so while you may feel my top end hope is a gross overestimation, I did think finishing down around 3 was a possibility, which I do not think could be considered a crazy overestimation.

Which means that if we had a coach that got more out of the roster than what we see on paper, I do not see how moving up a couple more spots from there is some sort of wild calculation.

Also its not just Toffoli we added. Wennberg is an upgrade to any of the bottom 6 centers we had last year. Walman is a massive upgrade on D compared to last years roster, and even someone like Goodrow, if he were still playing like he did a couple years ago would be a better bottom 6 forward than the likes of Bailey, Carpenter, Lindblom, Sabourin, Studnika etc.

Also this was my assessment before the season, which means a guy like Smith factored into my opinion in a way that he just has not quite delivered. Maybe that was my fault for thinking he would be a bit more impactful, but again I do not think it was crazy.

So while I agree we were still going to be a bad team, I do not think calling my thoughts for a finish somewhere around 3-7 as being a crazy overestimation is quite appropriate. In fact right now, if we were to string together a measly 3 wins while a couple teams around us in the standings lost just 3 games, we would find ourselves right in that 3-7 range. So again I fail to see why my thought about this team was so crazy.

 

[hohosaregood]

We're still seeing how a bad defense can break an offensive structure. Only Walman and Liljegren really have any NHL ability to pass a puck up ice on a regular basis and even they make mistimed passes and clears on the reg.

 

[Dicdonya]

Some of his lineup decisions have been weird, but you're mad because he isn't benching 90% of the team? What's he supposed to do and what is that going to accomplish? If all of the players are doing the pass into space from the boards, isn't it possible that is part of his system? Although I agree with you it does often result in a turnover, and has not been very effective. The team was -1.78 in +/- per game last year, and are -.85 in +/- this year. So far there has been clear improvement IMO.

Did you really not make it past the first sentence?

Quite literally my second sentence was admitting that my first was being knowingly hyperbolic, or do you think I also really believe he committed a warcrime last game.

My goodness.

 

[CHALUPA]

Go for Rutta.

 

[Timo Time]

What are we talking about here?

Lamenting the job of a rookie HC who took over a historically shit roster. This team was so bad last year that even the upgrades don't drag them out of lottery expectations. We have arguably 2 serviceable D-Men and our best offense is coming from an 18 year old rookie.

We now also employ tank commander, Fourgiev.

Losing sucks, sure. But you'd be insane to not acknowledge how competitive this roster is compared to Quinn's tenure.

 

[coooldude]

I mean I did say 3 to 7 just from the roster, so while you may feel my top end hope is a gross overestimation, I did think finishing down around 3 was a possibility, which I do not think could be considered a crazy overestimation.

Which means that if we had a coach that got more out of the roster than what we see on paper, I do not see how moving up a couple more spots from there is some sort of wild calculation.

Also its not just Toffoli we added. Wennberg is an upgrade to any of the bottom 6 centers we had last year. Walman is a massive upgrade on D compared to last years roster, and even someone like Goodrow, if he were still playing like he did a couple years ago would be a better bottom 6 forward than the likes of Bailey, Carpenter, Lindblom, Sabourin, Studnika etc.

Also this was my assessment before the season, which means a guy like Smith factored into my opinion in a way that he just has not quite delivered. Maybe that was my fault for thinking he would be a bit more impactful, but again I do not think it was crazy.

So while I agree we were still going to be a bad team, I do not think calling my thoughts for a finish somewhere around 3-7 as being a crazy overestimation is quite appropriate. In fact right now, if we were to string together a measly 3 wins while a couple teams around us in the standings lost just 3 games, we would find ourselves right in that 3-7 range. So again I fail to see why my thought about this team was so crazy.

I appreciate the dialogue. I'm not trying to "chill bro" anyone even though that's how I generally feel - happy to engage in the discussion.

My TL;Dr on Warsofsky after just 39 games is that he's probably an average or near average NHL coach.

There are probably 20 of those with little differentiation other than style. Then in the final 12 there are probably 6 excellent and 6 dog shit coaches. There are probably things he's doing a really good job at, and things he's doing a bad job at. But the vast majority (26+) of teams in the league are going to complain about their coach and lineup decisions and systems, and I'm just not sure it matters as much as people hope.

He seems to be well respected in terms of developing players and I'm happier with how he's handling Celebrini, Eklund, Smith, Asky, and Mukh versus, say, how people see Torts handling Michkov. He seems to be building a culture that fights hard, or at least isn't as milquetoast as last year's attitudes.

But in the end, as you said, it's probably just a difference of expectations on lineup. I think with Celebrini, Askarov, and everyone else healthy and playing their best, we could be as good as bottom 5. But that's not how it works. Injuries happen, players like Granlund have slumps, etc. This year we have been in 1 goal games 21 times already. The improvement is massive. Unfortunately we were so bad last year that the improvement, with expected injury and slumps and a team that isn't very deep talent wise, means we are still bottom 2-3. That's okay, and I personally think Warso is doing a good job but I could easily concede that he's doing a replacement level job. I wouldn't easily be convinced that a better coach would have us much better in the standings.

 

[Dicdonya]

I appreciate the dialogue. I'm not trying to "chill bro" anyone even though that's how I generally feel - happy to engage in the discussion.

My TL;Dr on Warsofsky after just 39 games is that he's probably an average or near average NHL coach.

There are probably 20 of those with little differentiation other than style. Then in the final 12 there are probably 6 excellent and 6 dog shit coaches. There are probably things he's doing a really good job at, and things he's doing a bad job at. But the vast majority (26+) of teams in the league are going to complain about their coach and lineup decisions and systems, and I'm just not sure it matters as much as people hope.

He seems to be well respected in terms of developing players and I'm happier with how he's handling Celebrini, Eklund, Smith, Asky, and Mukh versus, say, how people see Torts handling Michkov. He seems to be building a culture that fights hard, or at least isn't as milquetoast as last year's attitudes.

But in the end, as you said, it's probably just a difference of expectations on lineup. I think with Celebrini, Askarov, and everyone else healthy and playing their best, we could be as good as bottom 5. But that's not how it works. Injuries happen, players like Granlund have slumps, etc. This year we have been in 1 goal games 21 times already. The improvement is massive. Unfortunately we were so bad last year that the improvement, with expected injury and slumps and a team that isn't very deep talent wise, means we are still bottom 2-3. That's okay, and I personally think Warso is doing a good job but I could easily concede that he's doing a replacement level job. I wouldn't easily be convinced that a better coach would have us much better in the standings.

Oh goodness no, to be very clear you and most others that have responded since the initial "chill out" comment are absolutely not who I am talking about. You especially have not even remotely come close to giving such a flippant response lol.

I agree that at least in terms of deployment he is doing a good job with the youngsters on the whole. Obviously there are still some times I think he leans too much on veterans, when someone like Celebrini should be out there, but overall he doesn't seem to be totally against putting the youngsters out there in meaningful or tough situations.

I am glad you and others think he is doing well, hopefully you guys are right and I am wrong, because despite what some might think after this discussion, I am having a blast watching this team vs the team last year, so hopefully things just keep getting better with him as our coach.

 

[The Nemesis]

View attachment 953075

 

[Star Platinum]

Go for Rutta.

 

[jarr92]

Did you really not make it past the first sentence?

Quite literally my second sentence was admitting that my first was being knowingly hyperbolic, or do you think I also really believe he committed a warcrime last game.

My goodness.

Well yeah obviously he can't bench the entire lineup, but what are you suggesting he do?

 

[Shark Finn]

Hijacking this thread for a more important discussion:

I have blank Cali fin and white away jerseys. Which one gets Askarov and which one gets Celebrini? I don’t think Askarov has worn the Cali fin yet, right?

Go for Rutta.

And Vlasic.

 

[sincityshark]

off topic here but Im going to my first game at the tank in 10 years on feb 8th VS Dallas....

I grew up in south san jose going to the tank , I remember my first ever game versus detroit back in 2007. I've been hooked ever since. I moved to so cal in 2009 so the majority of games I've seen live have been in LA and Vegas now so im so happy to be going back to san jose where this passion started for me.

idk I'm just pumped! , sorry iof this was way off topic or in the wrong thread ...

hope to see some of you guys there ! also I''m bringing a die hard kings fan and devils fan with me cause they want to see Celebrini live in action !

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

As an outsider, seeing Sheng post the lines every day and they’re always different is jarring.

 

[karltonian]

I think you are missing my point which was why I said I was knit picking I’m not saying he should’ve had it I’m saying he could’ve had it. That being said the Markstrom save is the exact same save selection that Asky used hard down push from left to right for a cross ice pass below the circles the major differences being Markstrom kept an incredibly tight Bfly he kept his stick covering 5 hole and flat (why the rebound went to the boards) and he didn’t sit on his heels when he got across so the top of his pads maintained a seal on the ice. I guarantee the next time Askarov is in that situation he makes that stop because he will be covering 5 hole with his stick.

just look at his post work from right to left from his first call up, he would come across flat and off angle and swat at pucks with his glove, that’s completely out of his game now. He’s tracking to be the next great Russian goalie

Exact same save selection? Askarov actually faced a shot, not a pass. He faced 2 shots there. Totally different from reading a pass and not having to make a save first.

If he can be criticized there maybe it's for giving up that rebound but actually getting over to get that position on the second shot is amazing and I don't think you can expect the same technique as from a goalie deeper in the net defending a cross pass.

Askarov had an unmarked shooter way off the net so he went to front the shot and he pretty much did. Markstrom had a marked man crashing the net so he could expect a shot on the ice.

 

[coooldude]

As an outsider, seeing Sheng post the lines every day and they’re always different is jarring.

Unfortunately a lot of it is driven by injury lately. He has been mixing and matching, but we had a streak in Nov where the lines were pretty set and were clicking. Then Kostin got injured, then Granlund got banged up, then Smith got injured, then Eklund and Walman got injured.