GDT: Game 34: Sharks vs. Jets 7:30pm NBCSCA

[coooldude]

I feel like I’ve been reading this here for three years.

I'm guessing he meant that the "build" part of the rebuild started this year.

Obviously, the rebuild process did not start until Grier took over in 2022, and the first major move in that process was trading Burns. 2022 draft hardly counts, since Grier navigated that without his own staff. We had 2 years of teardown, ending with the painful Hertl trade last year.

Last year was rock bottom and the end of teardown. We're now in the "build back up" phase of the rebuild, which technically you could also call a "rebuild" I guess, although I wouldn't.

I'd definitely say "The Rebuild" started in 2022 but the actual "build it back up" part only started this season.

 

[sampler]

After this yera, the rebuild is pretty much over. This is the last year of bottom dwelling. I have high expectations for '25-26 and anything short of playoffs will be a fail for me next year. Here's why:

1. Forwards: If granny returns, we need just one more top line NHL forward. I dunno if Martone, hagens, or Misa can be that guy yet (or if they draft shcaefer or someone else), but if not, then UFA him. Break the bank if needed. marner. Rantanen. Ehlers. Consider marner...

Celebrini-Marner-Kovalenko (what a find he's been!)
Granlund-Zetterlund-Eklund (all three have always been maximized when together)
Wennberg-Smith-Toffoli (smith is a passer, and I think hes best with toffoli)

That's a top 9 that can compete with the best in the league (particularly with the continued development of celly, smith, and eklund), and all three lines can score a lot. They are just missing that one extra top player (goodrow's spot) from being a clear Playoff forward group. Hell, they might be that already right now.

2. Goaltending: Askarov will be ready to take the net. They will need a quality vet backup, but Askarov sure looks ready to be the guy, and if he plays half as well as he has with the cuda, the net is set.

3. the Defense: This is where the biggest improvements are needed and where summer 2025 and training camp will be key. However, the emergence of walman as a clear top pairing guy changes the calculus and timeline. Lil and ferraro are servicable as a second pair, but we ned to get one top pair Dman who can eat 22+ mins and contribute at both ends. Bascially one more walman clone. These are hard to find, I know, but that's it. One top pair guy (and maybe a depth vet to help the kids along).

Coaching: Warsofsky has completely revolutionized the play in two months. He took a disaster on ice and has them working the right way, outplaying top teams. He is a proven winner at the ECHL and AHL levels and clearly has a great relationship with the guys. The bench boss should be set too.

In other words, if Grier has a good summer, he should draft a future top line forward or top pair dman, then needs to aquire via UFA or trade one top line forward and one top pair dman. He has 30+M in cap space to do it. And, of course, this assumes no one inside the org steps up (like Mukh, Dick, Musty, Cags, Pohlcamp, Graf, Bystedt, or any others.)

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I feel like I’ve been reading this here for three years.

You're probably right because there are two different elements to a rebuild. The tearing down of the old team and the building of the new team. You don't really start building a new team until you have someone to build around. I don't view Eklund as that kind of guy but Celebrini is. We've already seen what this team looks like without Celebrini in the lineup and it's not pretty. Even with Celebrini, it's not pretty against a lot of the good teams in this league but they have been competitive and won here and there.

We still need certain critical elements a team needs to be a playoff team much less a contender. We still lack a 1D type. We don't have a long term 2C option yet. We've seen limited action from Askarov and there's always a lot of volatility with goalies. We still need time drafting top end talent because we're still not likely to get it anywhere else at this stage. We've pretty much traded everyone that's going to get us assets we can turn around and move for these sorts of things that we're missing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

After this yera, the rebuild is pretty much over. This is the last year of bottom dwelling. I have high expectations for '25-26 and anything short of playoffs will be a fail for me next year. Here's why:

1. Forwards: If granny returns, we need just one more top line NHL forward. I dunno if Martone, hagens, or Misa can be that guy yet (or if they draft shcaefer or someone else), but if not, then UFA him. Break the bank if needed. marner. Rantanen. Ehlers. Consider marner...

Celebrini-Marner-Kovalenko (what a find he's been!)
Granlund-Zetterlund-Eklund (all three have always been maximized when together)
Wennberg-Smith-Toffoli (smith is a passer, and I think hes best with toffoli)

That's a top 9 that can compete with the best in the league (particularly with the continued development of celly, smith, and eklund), and all three lines can score a lot. They are just missing that one extra top player (goodrow's spot) from being a clear Playoff forward group. Hell, they might be that already right now.

2. Goaltending: Askarov will be ready to take the net. They will need a quality vet backup, but Askarov sure looks ready to be the guy, and if he plays half as well as he has with the cuda, the net is set.

3. the Defense: This is where the biggest improvements are needed and where summer 2025 and training camp will be key. However, the emergence of walman as a clear top pairing guy changes the calculus and timeline. Lil and ferraro are servicable as a second pair, but we ned to get one top pair Dman who can eat 22+ mins and contribute at both ends. Bascially one more walman clone. These are hard to find, I know, but that's it. One top pair guy (and maybe a depth vet to help the kids along).

Coaching: Warsofsky has completely revolutionized the play in two months. He took a disaster on ice and has them working the right way, outplaying top teams. He is a proven winner at the ECHL and AHL levels and clearly has a great relationship with the guys. The bench boss should be set too.

In other words, if Grier has a good summer, he should draft a future top line forward or top pair dman, then needs to aquire via UFA or trade one top line forward and one top pair dman. He has 30+M in cap space to do it. And, of course, this assumes no one inside the org steps up (like Mukh, Dick, Musty, Cags, Pohlcamp, Graf, Bystedt, or any others.)

Getting that 1D is a lot easier said than done. Dobson is probably the only one potentially on the trade market and he has questions. Otherwise, we're waiting on a dumb luck acquisition or for one of Cagnoni, Dickinson, Mukhamadullin, or potentially Schaefer to play into it. I hope it happens but the odds of it happening for next year are slim. I can largely agree on the assessment of the forwards and goaltending but goaltending can be volatile and injuries can derail a lineup you think is deep and competitive. Most defensemen just aren't going to step into the NHL and be top guys out of the gate. They're going to need time and patience and putting the playoffs as an expectation for a fan is setting yourself up for disappointment.

Management has already made it clear that the team is still far off from the competitive level that they seek as was explicitly stated in the Blackwood trade. That mindset likely means that Granlund gets rented at the deadline too for the best offer they receive. The rest of the expiring contracts will get mid-to-late draft picks and prospects. That means needing probably two top-nine caliber forwards, two RHD's including a top end one, and a 1B type of goalie. Everything outside the top end RHD is a reasonable acquisition to expect. And the only way to really counteract lacking a defenseman of that caliber is to be pretty well shored up in every other spot in the lineup. And even with getting all that, making the strides needed to win consistently enough may not happen overnight when a big chunk of your team that you need to carry them forward will be going into their second year where it's normal to struggle for a lot of that year.

We still need to be patient and continue to assemble young talent. If Celebrini is that guy like I think he is, he'll lead the way in figuring it out.

 

[sampler]

BTW, I have no problem with Grier handing out $$$ and term this summer to lure the top UFAs to SJ. While he has to be mindful of the cost of resigning of Zetterlund, kovalenko, and Eklund in the next two years, and of course Smith and celly after that (and walman too), he still has a small army of prospects coming up who can provide value on ELCs. As such, he can pay some big name guys real $$$, and then count on cashing in on the last few years of drafts (including '25 draft) to fill out the roster and get value for sub $1M.

Over the next 3-4 years or so, we should be able to integrate multiple top 4 D/top 9 Fs including the '25 top pick, Dick, Cags, Mukh, Pohlcamp, LSW, Musty, Cherny, Haltunnen, bystedt, Graf, and possibly even Gushkin or Bordeleau. While certainly not all of those guys will make the NHL or be impact players there, it's fair to assume that at least 4-6 of them will, so we should be able to integrate 2-3 impact rookies into the lineup every year for the next three years or so. That should mean approxiamte 5-6 ELCs in the lineup, which means lots and lots of cap space to add talent. And, we need to have more top end NHL talent to bring those rookies in slowly and put them in a position to succeed (i.e: Let dick start with 15mins/gm on a 3rd pairing before moving his way up the lineup, kinda like Mukh is now. This way, when those expensive long term $$ deals begin to provide less value on the latter parts, the young guys are ready to take over the mantle). This is how the great teams integrate rookies and maintain their greatness for long stretches. Those rooks start with 3rd/4th line minutes, while the top talent carries the load. Then, slowly over time, they play their way up the lineup as the top talent ages out.

Buffalo and other poorly run franchises place too much pressure on the rooks too soon with insufficient veteran talent around them. This is why guys like Toffoli and Granlund, and even Ceci, are so valuable to the sharks at this stage. We need Grier to add a few more of those guys this coming summer.

 

[sampler]

You're probably right because there are two different elements to a rebuild. The tearing down of the old team and the building of the new team. You don't really start building a new team until you have someone to build around. I don't view Eklund as that kind of guy but Celebrini is. We've already seen what this team looks like without Celebrini in the lineup and it's not pretty. Even with Celebrini, it's not pretty against a lot of the good teams in this league but they have been competitive and won here and there.

We still need certain critical elements a team needs to be a playoff team much less a contender. We still lack a 1D type. We don't have a long term 2C option yet. We've seen limited action from Askarov and there's always a lot of volatility with goalies. We still need time drafting top end talent because we're still not likely to get it anywhere else at this stage. We've pretty much traded everyone that's going to get us assets we can turn around and move for these sorts of things that we're missing.

I agree for the most part. Obviously, if Askarov shits the bed next year, then we are in big trouble. But I doubt that will happen, and Grier will need to have a solid vet backup in place. This should not be too hard...

I also think the forward crew is very nearly set. You mentioned a 2C, but I actually think its more of a 1W, but either way, just one more forward should solidify the O.

I also agree on the 1D.

If the draft is the only way to get these guys, then we will need another couple years for Dick and the like to take over those roles.

However, trades and the UFA period exist. This summer, Toffoli and Wennberg came by UFA while Ceci and Walman by trade. I don't believe that it's impossible to add another 1-2 top 6 forwards, and one top pair D this summer via UFA or trade. As such, I think they can fill the holes you mentioned, then they should be ready to compete for real.

BTW, in April of last year, the entire roster was holes. We had maybe 3 top 9 forwards: the lund line and that's it. Celebrini, Smith, Toffoli, Wennberg, and Kovalenko were all added to the roster in the last 8 months. We also had maybe 1 top 4 Dman (ferraro and even that is questionable). We added Ceci, Liljgren, and Walman in the last 9 months. We also had zero goaltending. We added the best goalie prospect, who is clearly NHL ready right now. Grier's moves have accelerated the rebuild into near completion, and I hope he can finish the job this summer. I dont see why he can't?

 

[Cas]

BTW, I have no problem with Grier handing out $$$ and term this summer to lure the top UFAs to SJ. While he has to be mindful of the cost of resigning of Zetterlund, kovalenko, and Eklund in the next two years, and of course Smith and celly after that (and walman too), he still has a small army of prospects coming up who can provide value on ELCs. As such, he can pay some big name guys real $$$, and then count on cashing in on the last few years of drafts (including '25 draft) to fill out the roster and get value for sub $1M.

Over the next 3-4 years or so, we should be able to integrate multiple top 4 D/top 9 Fs including the '25 top pick, Dick, Cags, Mukh, Pohlcamp, LSW, Musty, Cherny, Haltunnen, bystedt, Graf, and possibly even Gushkin or Bordeleau. While certainly not all of those guys will make the NHL or be impact players there, it's fair to assume that at least 4-6 of them will, so we should be able to integrate 2-3 impact rookies into the lineup every year for the next three years or so. That should mean approxiamte 5-6 ELCs in the lineup, which means lots and lots of cap space to add talent. And, we need to have more top end NHL talent to bring those rookies in slowly and put them in a position to succeed (i.e: Let dick start with 15mins/gm on a 3rd pairing before moving his way up the lineup, kinda like Mukh is now. This way, when those expensive long term $$ deals begin to provide less value on the latter parts, the young guys are ready to take over the mantle). This is how the great teams integrate rookies and maintain their greatness for long stretches. Those rooks start with 3rd/4th line minutes, while the top talent carries the load. Then, slowly over time, they play their way up the lineup as the top talent ages out.

Buffalo and other poorly run franchises place too much pressure on the rooks too soon with insufficient veteran talent around them. This is why guys like Toffoli and Granlund, and even Ceci, are so valuable to the sharks at this stage. We need Grier to add a few more of those guys this coming summer.

This is exactly the mentality I talked about as why some teams fail their rebuilds. We are too far away to jump in right now and have too many missing pieces.

 

[sampler]

Getting that 1D is a lot easier said than done. Dobson is probably the only one potentially on the trade market and he has questions. Otherwise, we're waiting on a dumb luck acquisition or for one of Cagnoni, Dickinson, Mukhamadullin, or potentially Schaefer to play into it. I hope it happens but the odds of it happening for next year are slim. I can largely agree on the assessment of the forwards and goaltending but goaltending can be volatile and injuries can derail a lineup you think is deep and competitive. Most defensemen just aren't going to step into the NHL and be top guys out of the gate. They're going to need time and patience and putting the playoffs as an expectation for a fan is setting yourself up for disappointment.

Management has already made it clear that the team is still far off from the competitive level that they seek as was explicitly stated in the Blackwood trade. That mindset likely means that Granlund gets rented at the deadline too for the best offer they receive. The rest of the expiring contracts will get mid-to-late draft picks and prospects. That means needing probably two top-nine caliber forwards, two RHD's including a top end one, and a 1B type of goalie. Everything outside the top end RHD is a reasonable acquisition to expect. And the only way to really counteract lacking a defenseman of that caliber is to be pretty well shored up in every other spot in the lineup. And even with getting all that, making the strides needed to win consistently enough may not happen overnight when a big chunk of your team that you need to carry them forward will be going into their second year where it's normal to struggle for a lot of that year.

We still need to be patient and continue to assemble young talent. If Celebrini is that guy like I think he is, he'll lead the way in figuring it out.

You raise all good points, Pink, as usual . I agree that all are very reasonable and realistic acquisitions but that the 1D is the boogeyman. I also agree that expecting a kid like Dick or Cagnoni to step into that role right away is not likely, and frankly, counterproductive to proper development.

You mentioned Dobson, but I wonder if there are others? Or other Walman-like guys who had top pair skill but are undiscovered in a way. I mean, Walman's play this year is unquestionably top pairing level, arguably even 1D level. I mean, he's 9th in the league in scoring (despite missing a few games), and +6 on a team that is big minus, while logging approximately 23 min/gm. That's 1D type production.

The sharks need just one more Walman. An already clear cut proven top line all star is ideal of course, but perhaps Grier can pull off another find. That's really what makes a GM great. Walman was a spectacular find. Kovalenko is shaping up to be another. Zetterlund was another. Grier has done a miraculous job finding undervalued talent so far. I wonder if he cant find another one? After all, if your team is really just one player away from the rebuild completed, then it seems foolish to tank again and not do all you can to acquire that player. I fail to see why we should not compete for the playoffs next season if grier has a good summer. I know it sounds crazy, but I acually think this team, exactly as is but with Askarov in net and more NHL experience from the kids, is good enough to make the PO's. I truly believe their record is not reflective of their skill level or overall play.

p.s.: I agree that grier would be wise to get value from Ceci, Granny, etc, athe deadline but I do hope that he can make a run to resign them this summer. They have fit in well, and I feel both would be excellent pieces to keep for the next few years as the run the playoffs/cup begins.

 

[TheBeard]

I'm guessing he meant that the "build" part of the rebuild started this year.

Obviously, the rebuild process did not start until Grier took over in 2022, and the first major move in that process was trading Burns. 2022 draft hardly counts, since Grier navigated that without his own staff. We had 2 years of teardown, ending with the painful Hertl trade last year.

Last year was rock bottom and the end of teardown. We're now in the "build back up" phase of the rebuild, which technically you could also call a "rebuild" I guess, although I wouldn't.

I'd definitely say "The Rebuild" started in 2022 but the actual "build it back up" part only started this season.

While it's irrelevant, I think you have to include the 2022 draft simply because his goal was to move back and start immediate restocking the cupboards.

 

[TheBeard]

This is exactly the mentality I talked about as why some teams fail their rebuilds. We are too far away to jump in right now and have too many missing pieces.

I kind of agree. At least until we know what Askarov can do with regular playing time and until we know whether or not any of our D prospects can com close to living up to expectations I'm not ready for a marquee win-now FA that's already nearing 30. That's why I still look at a Brady Tkachuck who just turned 25 and still fits within the timeline of Grier's rebuild. By the time Celebrini and Smith are 22 or so Tkachuck will still be under 30 and I'm expecting us to be competitive long before then. Also, the way the cap is expected to go up over the next few years it wouldn't be a bad idea to sign a younger D-man (or forward) now so by the time the big deals will be needed for the kids whomever we signed will probably be underpaid. An 8 million dollar contract now will probably be the equivalent of 5.5 in half a decade.

You mentioned Dobson, but I wonder if there are others? Or other Walman-like guys who had top pair skill but are undiscovered in a way. I mean, Walman's play this year is unquestionably top pairing level, arguably even 1D level. I mean, he's 9th in the league in scoring (despite missing a few games), and +6 on a team that is big minus, while logging approximately 23 min/gm. That's 1D type production.

I think your outlook on Walman is far too generous. He's a good d-man, and while he's top-pairing for us, he's at best a middle pairing for a competitive team. He's also about to turn 29 so his timeline is probably more as an attractive trade piece down the road than a core piece.

 

[hohosaregood]

Walman's probably settling into a #3 spot. Which is usually a guy that's going to be leading his own 2nd pairing or a solid partner for a #1.

 

[Hodge]

This is exactly the mentality I talked about as why some teams fail their rebuilds. We are too far away to jump in right now and have too many missing pieces.

Signing a top 6 forward in free agency to replace Granlund doesn't really count as accelerating the rebuild. It costs us zero assets and we need to make sure Celebrini has skilled players around him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

There's a huge difference between being blown out every game and having no hope and being in every game and losing by a sliver at the last minute. Last year was the former and can be extremely detrimental to player development and morale. The latter is what's happening this year can be a good learning experience.

Don't rush the rebuild and end up with Alex Nylander instead of Auston Matthews.

 

[sampler]

I kind of agree. At least until we know what Askarov can do with regular playing time and until we know whether or not any of our D prospects can com close to living up to expectations I'm not ready for a marquee win-now FA that's already nearing 30. That's why I still look at a Brady Tkachuck who just turned 25 and still fits within the timeline of Grier's rebuild. By the time Celebrini and Smith are 22 or so Tkachuck will still be under 30 and I'm expecting us to be competitive long before then. Also, the way the cap is expected to go up over the next few years it wouldn't be a bad idea to sign a younger D-man (or forward) now so by the time the big deals will be needed for the kids whomever we signed will probably be underpaid. An 8 million dollar contract now will probably be the equivalent of 5.5 in half a decade.


I think your outlook on Walman is far too generous. He's a good d-man, and while he's top-pairing for us, he's at best a middle pairing for a competitive team. He's also about to turn 29 so his timeline is probably more as an attractive trade piece down the road than a core piece.

I don't see why I am overrating walman. I mean, I guess the sample size is only 29 games, but his play, at least this year, has warranted top pair status regardless of what team he is on. Every year, unexpected players emerge as stars, and existing stars fall into obscurity. 29 is not old. He should be excellent for 3-5 more years before serious decline.

Whats the big downside of making a big splash? We end up a middling team 10-15th worst? No PO and no top 3 pick? Cash strapped when it comes time to resign celly and co?

I certainly wouldnt want several 7 year aging vet deals. but one or two for a top end D and top flight F?

One thing I don't want to happen is that the rebuild stretches forever becasue of a lack of solid vet leadership and talent to compliment the kids. Toffoli, Granlund, and co are key. We need to add a few more of those caliber guys....

 

[TheBeard]

I don't see why I am overrating walman. I mean, I guess the sample size is only 29 games, but his play, at least this year, has warranted top pair status regardless of what team he is on. Every year, unexpected players emerge as stars, and existing stars fall into obscurity. 29 is not old. He should be excellent for 3-5 more years before serious decline.

Whats the big downside of making a big splash? We end up a middling team 10-15th worst? No PO and no top 3 pick? Cash strapped when it comes time to resign celly and co?

I certainly wouldnt want several 7 year aging vet deals. but one or two for a top end D and top flight F?

One thing I don't want to happen is that the rebuild stretches forever becasue of a lack of solid vet leadership and talent to compliment the kids. Toffoli, Granlund, and co are key. We need to add a few more of those caliber guys....

You also have to keep in mind getting those caliber of players to want to come. There's only three ways to do that; overpay, give way too much term (security), or give them the indication that the team will be competitive sooner rather than later. I don't hate giving out shorter term deals on vets looking to rebuild their value, but it's hard to have any continuity with a consistent revolving door like that. For now there's still a fair amount of vet leadership on this team even if a majority of them are lacking in skill.

As for Walman, I don't know if it would be in the best interest to give him the money/term he'll be looking for when free agency hits. THAT'S what got us into trouble in the first place. My guess is he'll be a marquee TDL acquisition next year, hell maybe even this year.

 

[sampler]

You also have to keep in mind getting those caliber of players to want to come. There's only three ways to do that; overpay, give way too much term (security), or give them the indication that the team will be competitive sooner rather than later. I don't hate giving out shorter term deals on vets looking to rebuild their value, but it's hard to have any continuity with a consistent revolving door like that. For now there's still a fair amount of vet leadership on this team even if a majority of them are lacking in skill.

As for Walman, I don't know if it would be in the best interest to give him the money/term he'll be looking for when free agency hits. THAT'S what got us into trouble in the first place. My guess is he'll be a marquee TDL acquisition next year, hell maybe even this year.

I would be shocked if they dealt Walman this year. That would be a major body blow for the team's competitiveness next year and a very undermining message by grier. Trading Blackwood was easier as he was a to-be-ufa who they wouldnt resign and they could see that this year was not going t obe a PO run. But, I dont think grier sees next year as a guaranteed top 5 pick again. And, as for next year's TDL, I think that obviously depends on where the team is then. If they are in the PO spot, then of course you look to extend, not undermine your POs. If the team is still bottom 5, then you gotta get value...

And agreed that getting UFAs to come is a challenging business. Still, I think Grier can sell them on the sharks being good next year and going forward. Of course, it depends some on how the rest of this year goes (if they keep up the good play), but I could see UFA's wanting to come to SJ. Toffoli did (that was personal too, I know), but the sharks are building up. Other teams are playing against them and they see they are tough. Joining the sharks for the next 5 years has be an intriguing thought to alot of top UFAs.

A lot can still happen between now and then. Kakko is intriguing longer term as is Krieder shorter term with just 2 more years at 6.5M. Also, many TDL deals arent just for picks. Jack Thompson among others often come at those times, so much like Kovalenko seems to be filling a key hole, Grier has much time between now and even the end of the season to continue to shape the roster going forward.

p.s.: what got us in trouble in the first place was not because we had too many long term aging deals.
1. Covid was huge. The key to long term deals is cap inflation. The more inflation there is, the lower those latter half years actually cost you in terms of cap %. Covid caused the cap to freeze making the latter parts way more costly.
2. poor drafting, which usually happens 4-6 years prior to tanking (aka 2013-2020) the 2013 draft yielded basically nothing (Anyone? Mueller? Mueller?...) 2014: just Lebanc. 2015 only meier. 2016: nothing. 2017: Ferraro (traded norris before he was in NHL). 2018: nothing. 2019: nothing. 2020: nothing. In other words, in 8 years of drafting, aside from a few very fringe guys, the sharks got just 3 real NHlers (Lebanc, meier, Ferraro). That lack of young talent infusion and ELC cap savings really drove the decline. If you cant get at least one good NHL player per draft year on average, its pretty tough to maintain goodness. If you look at the years prior to that drought (2003-2012): the sharks got Michalek, Bernier, Carle, pavelski, Setoguchi, Vlasic, Mcginn, Bonino, Braun, Couture, Demers, Wingels, Nieto, Coyle, Demelo, Tierney, and Hertl (and a few other fringe guys like Torrey Mitchell...).
3. coaching failure: Boughner and Quinn were wholly ineffective, and, frankly, horrific coaches. Wars has made huge strides in a matter of a few months comparably.

So I honestly do not think it was contracts that the cooch or vlasic, or even EK 65 contracts that caused the decline but instead bad covid luck, horrific drafting and developing, and poor bench bosses.

 

[Cas]

Let's remember our actual forward situation right now, assuming these players were on an actual playoff team:

• Top Six - Granlund (32/1u), Eklund (22/2r), Celebrini (18/3r)
• Middle Six - Toffoli (32/3u), Zetterlund (25/1r), Kovalenko (25/1r), Smith (19/3r)
• Bottom Six - Wennberg (30/2u), Sturm (29/1u), Kunin (27/1u)
• Healthy Scratch - Goodrow (31/3u), Grundstrom (27/2u), Kostin (25/1r), Dellandrea (24/2r)
• Prospects - Graf (bottom six, 22/2r), Cardwell (bottom six, 22/2r), Bordeleau (bottom six, 22/1r), Gushchin (middle six, 22/1r)

We're missing almost an entire line of legitimate starting-quality forwards and have only two forwards who have even a small chance to break out next year (Bystedt in a bottom six role, Musty in a middle six role; Chernyshov will need another year in the OHL, Halttunen a year in the AHL, everyone else probably a year in the pros away at minimum). Of the forwards we have, we don't have a legitimate top six - we have a few guys who can be complementary top six forwards, but not play drivers (Toffoli, Zetterlund, Kovalenko), and a couple of guys who can be complementary bottom six guys (Sturm, Kunin) but also can't drive their lines.

We might disagree about some of these guys, but frankly I don't think much of the "Healthy Scratch" quality guys, and don't think all that much of Sturm either. The Kovalenko rating is also very, very much too early, I'm being very generous here.

Now consider the impact of age. Granlund is probably gone, and will likely move down in quality sooner rather than later. Toffoli isn't looking too hot - he's a decent complementary forward right now, but on a good team will soon be a 3RW-quality player if he's not already. Wennberg could move down to 4C-quality soon too.

So, next year we might have three, maybe four top six guys (if we resign Granlund) as Smith hopefully moves up, maybe giving us one legitimate top six line and another that is a bit light. Whoever we draft is unlikely to be top six quality right away, too. Our third and fourth lines would be weaker too, without additions (and we're losing Sturm, probably Kostin, maybe Kunin). Of the prospects, only Graf and Cardwell are going to have a chance to move up.

Internally, we're probably looking at something like this next year:

Eklund - Celebrini - Zetterlund
Kovalenko - Smith - Toffoli
Cardwell - Wennberg - Kunin
Grundstrom - Goodrow - Dellandrea
Graf

That's not a playoff-quality forward group - ideally we're pushing down the entire bottom six and also three of the top six.

We've still got a long way to go.

 

[Wedontneedroads]

Mukh looked lost last night.

His skating is smooth and probably NHL ready, but he is physically weak and overwhelmed by the speed of play in the NHL.

Won’t put too much stock into one game, but his deficiencies were on display last night.

 

[TheBeard]

Let's remember our actual forward situation right now, assuming these players were on an actual playoff team:

• Top Six - Granlund (32/1u), Eklund (22/2r), Celebrini (18/3r)
• Middle Six - Toffoli (32/3u), Zetterlund (25/1r), Kovalenko (25/1r), Smith (19/3r)
• Bottom Six - Wennberg (30/2u), Sturm (29/1u), Kunin (27/1u)
• Healthy Scratch - Goodrow (31/3u), Grundstrom (27/2u), Kostin (25/1r), Dellandrea (24/2r)
• Prospects - Graf (bottom six, 22/2r), Cardwell (bottom six, 22/2r), Bordeleau (bottom six, 22/1r), Gushchin (middle six, 22/1r)

We're missing almost an entire line of legitimate starting-quality forwards and have only two forwards who have even a small chance to break out next year (Bystedt in a bottom six role, Musty in a middle six role; Chernyshov will need another year in the OHL, Halttunen a year in the AHL, everyone else probably a year in the pros away at minimum). Of the forwards we have, we don't have a legitimate top six - we have a few guys who can be complementary top six forwards, but not play drivers (Toffoli, Zetterlund, Kovalenko), and a couple of guys who can be complementary bottom six guys (Sturm, Kunin) but also can't drive their lines.

We might disagree about some of these guys, but frankly I don't think much of the "Healthy Scratch" quality guys, and don't think all that much of Sturm either. The Kovalenko rating is also very, very much too early, I'm being very generous here.

Now consider the impact of age. Granlund is probably gone, and will likely move down in quality sooner rather than later. Toffoli isn't looking too hot - he's a decent complementary forward right now, but on a good team will soon be a 3RW-quality player if he's not already. Wennberg could move down to 4C-quality soon too.

So, next year we might have three, maybe four top six guys (if we resign Granlund) as Smith hopefully moves up, maybe giving us one legitimate top six line and another that is a bit light. Whoever we draft is unlikely to be top six quality right away, too. Our third and fourth lines would be weaker too, without additions (and we're losing Sturm, probably Kostin, maybe Kunin). Of the prospects, only Graf and Cardwell are going to have a chance to move up.

Internally, we're probably looking at something like this next year:

Eklund - Celebrini - Zetterlund
Kovalenko - Smith - Toffoli
Cardwell - Wennberg - Kunin
Grundstrom - Goodrow - Dellandrea
Graf

That's not a playoff-quality forward group - ideally we're pushing down the entire bottom six and also three of the top six.

We've still got a long way to go.

Finding productive guys for cheap is never a problem. There are always going to be Kreiders and Matt Duschene type guys that still have worth yet have contracts that hurt contenders more than they would us. Hell trade for Charlie Coyle and his cap hit for this year and next. Hell trade for Matt Barzal. My point is, while not realistic for some, there are a ton of guys who are available through channels beyond FA.

 

[matt trick]

I think that's a pretty good summary. I too think you're being generous on the forward tiering, @Cas. One thing I'd add is that even most (all?) contenders are short a 4th top 4 d-man or 6th top 6 forward. While you don't necessarily need to have 10 core(ish) guys, but then you'll be offering up trade assets each contending year to complete your roster. About half of the contenders don't have a star goalie either (Oettinger, Swayman, Helleybuck, Demko are exceptions). With 32 teams and more even distribution of drafting/developing talent there's not sufficient talent to go around.

That said, we're not a player or two away from grabbing a playoff spot. Askarov and Smith will take time. Granny (if re-signed) and Tofolli will likely fall off a bit. Dickinson will hopefully be top 4 caliber from the jump, but we don't have a clearcut top 4 RHD. Lilly and Ceci are world's better than what we iced last year, but they're still closer to #4.5/5 guys. I don' seet many guys I'm excited about adding as a top 4 D-man next year in free agency, and an increasing cap means fewer cap dumps (or more teams willing to offer value- see Trouba). I think a bottom 5 pick this year, and a bottom ten pick next year is most likely. Hopefully we get a top D prospect (Schaefer, Smith, Verhoeff, Lin) one year, and a top F (Hagens, Martone, Misa, Frondell, Desnoyers, McKenna, Belchetz, Roebrock) the other. Sure, you can find a Brock Faber in the 2nd round, but if it happens every 2-4 years, your chance of being the one isn't great.

We're not there yet, but I think there is something to be learned from Vegas in spend big when you can acquire a young(ish) star- Eichel, Hertl, Hanifin. STL and O'Reilly is another example. As is Florida and Reinhardt. Grab high end guys relatively early- usually out of a bad situation- and you can enjoy them for 6-10+ years not 2-3 years. I also think giving up 2nd/3rd-level compensation for soon to be top 4/top 9 F at 22-24 is a strategy we should start to replicate. Younger guys can be bought out for 1/6th their cost over twice the length of contract, so if they bust the dead cap is marginal, and the assets are irrelevant.

In contrast, if you sign an Ekblad, Montour, Stephenson, or Lindholm in free agency and you'll be happy for the first 2-4 years. Kaprizov, Marner, or Rantanen- is different, but it would completely f*** our cap structure- can you really play Celebrini less than the $14M you give Marner, especially when the cap is $8M higher? I don't think so. I think the worst thing we can do is go spend money on UFAs to compete for a playoff spot. Overpay/term guys when you're entering a window, not trying to create one. All that being said, I do look at Kyle Connor (the summer after this coming one) as a guy who might be worth paying a lot of money to be your second/third best forward once Celebrini is already signed.

When looking at rebuilds that were through the draft, I think LA is the one we're best prepared to align with, especially with a certain OHL D prospect. Tampa grabbing Kucherov, Point, and Cirelli with a 2nd and two thirds, and Chicago getting Keith (with a 2nd) and having both him and Hossa signed for about half their expected cap hit for 10 years is an awful lot to hope for. As is having Malkin/Crosby/Staal though I suppose if we won the McKenna lotto we could be decently close. Washington is another we can draw inspiration from. Built around a 1st overall forward, another top 5 center and some smart drafting outisde the top 10 in the first and 2nd rounds(Carlsson, Kuznetzov, Orlov, Wilson) .

 

[TheBeard]

That said, we're not a player or two away from grabbing a playoff spot.

If you're talking next year, I disagree. I think if Celebrini is this good it wouldn't take much to be there. Now, being a fringe playoff team isn't a big deal and I don't think we'd be much more than that at best, but I look at the 16-17 Oilers who exploded for over 100 points primarily because of Connor (and to a lesser extent Leon). The defense was ugly and the team's top wingers were Eberle, Lucic and Maroon.

Point is, and I'm not in any way endorsing expediting the build, a franchise altering guy like Celebrini can single-handedly turn an organization into a playoff team.

 

[Star Platinum]

You know how Crosby plays best with kinda skilled grinders....this seems similar. I will say Kovalenko had two beautiful passes that led to Tofolli's goal, hopefully the vision demonstrated isn't an outlier.

I thought Georgiev was okay, though two of the goals he could do better on. I wouldn't be surprised if Speer can turn him around though. I think if the Sharks are going give up 30 shots, he's going to give up 4 goals more often that not.

If Speer is able to turn Georgiev into a guy we can flip for a lottery ticket at the deadline, then he really is the goalie whisperer.

 

[Star Platinum]

Honestly, I do not like the 'Best Tank Result' point of view/way of thinking.

The kids need to experience winning, regardless of whether it's close or not. This is exactly how teams stay perpetually bad.

I get it, we are still very young, and early in the rebuild, but it is not like we started a couple years ago. We are about to be year 6 without making the playoffs. It is time that we started winning these close games to give the kids some much needed confidence.

Edit: I know we aren't going to make the playoffs this year, and that it has been a step forward so far, I would rather have us continue playing .450 hockey, rather than going on very extended losing streaks.

In my opinion, the years BM (Before Macklin) don't really matter as far as the team needing to learn to win. We're in Year 1 of that part of the operation. Nearly half the team was turned over last year and even most of those guys won't be around in a few years.

We won't have consistent success until we seriously upgrade the defense.

I think picking top 5 next year would be a little brutal, I suspect they’re going to try everything they can not to do that, but we’ll see how it goes. I suspect Grier is going to go hard trying to find a defenseman this summer and maybe bring in another top 6 (especially if Granlund is traded).

The best part about Macklin being so good so early is that it will be a lot easier to sell guys on coming here than it was last year. Would be even better if Will starts to kick it into gear.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

If you're talking next year, I disagree. I think if Celebrini is this good it wouldn't take much to be there. Now, being a fringe playoff team isn't a big deal and I don't think we'd be much more than that at best, but I look at the 16-17 Oilers who exploded for over 100 points primarily because of Connor (and to a lesser extent Leon). The defense was ugly and the team's top wingers were Eberle, Lucic and Maroon.

Point is, and I'm not in any way endorsing expediting the build, a franchise altering guy like Celebrini can single-handedly turn an organization into a playoff team.

Edmonton finished 8th in goals against that season; that wasn’t because of McDavid.

We’re currently 29th in GA/GP and would need to allow 0.7 fewer per game in order to be 8th. It would take a massive improvement both defensively and in goal for us to get there next year. I don’t see that just happening.

 

[Star Platinum]

You also have to keep in mind getting those caliber of players to want to come. There's only three ways to do that; overpay, give way too much term (security), or give them the indication that the team will be competitive sooner rather than later. I don't hate giving out shorter term deals on vets looking to rebuild their value, but it's hard to have any continuity with a consistent revolving door like that. For now there's still a fair amount of vet leadership on this team even if a majority of them are lacking in skill.

As for Walman, I don't know if it would be in the best interest to give him the money/term he'll be looking for when free agency hits. THAT'S what got us into trouble in the first place. My guess is he'll be a marquee TDL acquisition next year, hell maybe even this year.

I wouldn't even consider moving Walman this year unless it brings back a player who's very nearly NHL ready that is blocked by the guys in front of him on his current team. I would want to see how Dickinson plays at the NHL level before I know if we can afford to give up our best LHD. Hopefully, we'll have a good idea of where Mukhamadullin is by the end of the year.