GDT: Game # 29 Ducks vs Sharks @ 7pm PST

[Deuce22]

I took a quick look at the last 3 seasons of data including this season (so from 18-19). Obviously there are more factors that need to be taken into account than just the per 60 numbers but it is pretty telling how bad our guys are on the PP. They would certainly receive a bump by being on better units but they're all part of the problem why our units are so bad.

Of all dmen who have played at least 100 mins on the PP here are where our guys rank:

In points per 60 minutes:
Lindholm 4.33 points per 60, 38th out of 92
Hutton 3.47 points per 60, 63rd out of 92
Shattenkirk 2.98 points per 60, 84th out of 92
Fowler 2.87 points per 60, 85th out of 92

In goals per 60 minutes:
Lindholm 0.58 goals per 60, 54th out of 92
Shattenkirk 0.53 goals per 60, 59th out of 92
Fowler 0.51 goals per 60, 64th out of 92
Hutton 0.43 goals per 60, 73rd out of 92

Hutton's data comes from 18-19 with the Canucks where he was on the second unit. Hampus is the only guy with half decent production and he's a guy I want nowhere near my first unit. All three of our PP guys are realistically second pairing options and ideally they wouldn't even get second unit time if we were any good. Cam makes up for his poor numbers by being great at gaining the zone but once it's in there he's the worst of the lot at actually producing with the extra man.

So Lindholm is the most effective, but plays behind Shattenkirk and Fowler.

 

[Deuce22]

I think a good assistant coach would have recognized this during pre-season/early season with the lack of talent for the PP unit that we would have a different design. Mask it with more movement and a big body to screen the netminder.

Hazy denoted by having the veterans back in on the PK, they know where to go. This is something the youth will have to take years to figure out and why it's important to keep some veterans.

Or a good head coach, or an observant GM.

 

[Paul4587]

So Lindholm is the most effective, but plays behind Shattenkirk and Fowler.

Pretty much, yeah. In an ideal world I would like to see Hampus on one unit and Mahura if he's playing on the other. If he's not I would put Cam there. Shattenkirk I would take off completely, he hasn't been effective with the extra man since he was in St. Louis.

 

[Leonardo87]

Pretty much, yeah. In an ideal world I would like to see Hampus on one unit and Mahura if he's playing on the other. If he's not I would put Cam there. Shattenkirk I would take off completely, he hasn't been effective with the extra man since he was in St. Louis.

If Eakins doesn’t see this, not sure what to say. He’ll go back to that PP goal he scored which feels like ancient history thinking he should stay on there. Lol. Shattnekirk and Henrique should not be on the top unit, and perhaps the entire PP.

 

[Ducks DVM]

So Lindholm is the most effective, but plays behind Shattenkirk and Fowler.

Lindholm is also 25th on that list for TOI/game at 23:25, and has traditionally showed fraying of his play at higher minutes, while basically barely being a PP guy at 1:23/game. He’s more valuable elsewhere. Plus, sample size.

 

[Leonardo87]

Lindholm is also 25th on that list for TOI/game at 23:25, and has traditionally showed fraying of his play at higher minutes, while basically barely being a PP guy at 1:23/game. He’s more valuable elsewhere. Plus, sample size.

I have more faith in Fowler on the Top unit with Zegras than Shattenkirk. Hopefully Drysdale can fill that roll within the next 2 years. I agree about Lindholm, rather save his mins for the PK and shutting down, and can always give him some PP time on the 2nd unit.

 

[Paul4587]

Lindholm is also 25th on that list for TOI/game at 23:25, and has traditionally showed fraying of his play at higher minutes, while basically barely being a PP guy at 1:23/game. He’s more valuable elsewhere. Plus, sample size.

Tbat's three years of data, not really a small sample size.

I agree Lindholm can't handle huge minutes but minutes on the PP aren't exactly taxing minutes. I would like to see some of his harder minutes reduced if anything.

 

[Paul4587]

If Eakins doesn’t see this, not sure what to say. He’ll go back to that PP goal he scored which feels like ancient history thinking he should stay on there. Lol. Shattnekirk and Henrique should not be on the top unit, and perhaps the entire PP.

I think part of the problem is we don't even have a first unit. Eakins just splits who he thinks are our ten best offensive players in two and gives them equal time. It's a really bizzare way to try to maximize what little talent we have IMO.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Tbat's three years of data, not really a small sample size.

I agree Lindholm can't handle huge minutes but minutes on the PP aren't exactly taxing minutes. I would like to see some of his harder minutes reduced if anything.

It’s not a lot of time on ice compared to Fowler, and he’s 73rd out of 92 on that list. 1:23/game is barely over 1 PP shift, and that can be very swingy based on who he’s out with, which PP unit it was as far as timing, and game situation. It’s not nothing, but it’s also not much.

I would also like to see his taxing minutes down, but that’s also not really supported by the roster.

 

[Leonardo87]

I think part of the problem is we don't even have a first unit. Eakins just splits who he thinks are our ten best offensive players in two and gives them equal time. It's a really bizzare way to try to maximize what little talent we have IMO.

Yes, exactly. Need to put the best 5 players to maximize and let them go out there for a min and change, and then change units if they fail to convert. I feel the first unit should be something around Zegras , Rakell ,and Comtois. Just need a D for the other point, and a center who can win face offs.

 

[Paul4587]

Yes, exactly. Need to put the best 5 players to maximize and let them go out there for a min and change, and then change units if they fail to convert. I feel the first unit should be something around Zegras , Rakell ,and Comtois. Just need a D for the other point, and a center who can win face offs.

Getzlaf should still be on the unit, he wins face offs, seems to be scoring in the net front position and even if he’s old still has the best vision on the team. Would like to see Mahura as the dman but if he doesn’t draw in then Cam is the guy by default at the moment.

 

[Leonardo87]

Getzlaf should still be on the unit, he wins face offs, seems to be scoring in the net front position and even if he’s old still has the best vision on the team. Would like to see Mahura as the dman but if he doesn’t draw in then Cam is the guy by default at the moment.

Mahura/Fowler - Zegras - Rakell - Getzlaf - Comtois

Could be very effective. But what do we know. Lol

 

[KyleJRM]

It's really hard to pick a pure best 5 power play unit on this team

Zegras and Rakell are the only premium offensive talents on the team.

Getzlaf and Steel are the centers with a shred of offensive skill but they come with huge drawbacks. Steel is a liability on the boards and you've already got Zegras out there. But I can trust him to float around the edges and make simple passes back to the good players. Getzlaf is excruciatingly slow getting to loose pucks and he throws away possession a lot trying to make show-off passes.

You really need net-front presence but we don't really have anyone good at that. Jones is OK at it, Comtois has the skill set to get good at it, that's about it.

I don't even know who I want on the blue line. Fowler can't get shots through. Shattenkirk fumbles pucks too much. I guess Mahura. I can't think of any forwards whose skill set screams 'put them at the point on the power play.'

So no matter how you try to pare that down to five guys, you're going to have problems recovering pucks, mediocre or worse net presence and little contribution from the blue line.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Or a good head coach, or an observant GM.

The observant GM did take a gamble on a PP specialist during free agency. From then on, it's the coach. Murray got the PP going when he was interim coach. GM's get the players. Coaches play the players.

With a more veteran lineup in this game, our PK showed up. Why pile on the GM when the coach is the one in charge of who plays. Hey, the roster is increased with the taxi squad as well. Try not to blur job descriptions.

 

[dracom]

The observant GM did take a gamble on a PP specialist during free agency. From then on, it's the coach. Murray got the PP going when he was interim coach. GM's get the players. Coaches play the players.

With a more veteran lineup in this game, our PK showed up. Why pile on the GM when the coach is the one in charge of who plays. Hey, the roster is increased with the taxi squad as well. Try not to blur job descriptions.

what PP specialist? Surely you don't mean Shattenkirk do you? he hasn't been a good PP guy since 16-17 season with the Blues. last 4 years he put up 7 PPP 3/4 years, the other year? 12 points. Once again, it's just a move that shows Bob lives in the past and has no clue how to evaluate players currently and only focuses on what they USED to be.

 

[duckpuck]

If the Ducks think Zegras is good developing in this environment we are in more trouble than we think. We have put him with 2 players that look like they have holes in their sticks half the time. This team sucks ass, Eakins must be seeing similarities to his Oiler teams.

I don't know why Zegras is even around this mess, is this really how you want him to start his career?

I see posts like this all the time and I truly don't understand. I can't see any benefit in him returning to the AHL and dominating - you act like that is somehow a good thing. Don't see that helping his development. He's gaining valuable NHL experience and learning a ton. There are enough solid vets around (Getz among others) to mentor. The only reason to send Zegras back to the AHL is if he seemed overwhelmed and he does not (compare that to Terry or even Steel).

I wonder if Mahura's value isn't being tarnished by the fact that his best skill is getting the puck up to the forwards and on this team that's not necessarily a good thing.

I literally laughed out loud. Sad but true.

 

[Goose of Reason]

I see posts like this all the time and I truly don't understand. I can't see any benefit in him returning to the AHL and dominating - you act like that is somehow a good thing. Don't see that helping his development. He's gaining valuable NHL experience and learning a ton. There are enough solid vets around (Getz among others) to mentor. The only reason to send Zegras back to the AHL is if he seemed overwhelmed and he does not (compare that to Terry or even Steel).



I literally laughed out loud. Sad but true.

Well Zegras was not dominating the AHL so you don't have to worry about it being below him. Also, Terry is absolutely a better NHL player right now than Zegras is unless you base it on how flashy they look on the powerplay.

 

[Paul4587]

Well Zegras was not dominating the AHL so you don't have to worry about it being below him. Also, Terry is absolutely a better NHL player right now than Zegras is unless you base it on how flashy they look on the powerplay.

Yeah I’m not seeing how Zegras absolutely has to stay up. His vision and hands are very good by NHL standards, sure but he frequently gets outmuscled along the boards, isn’t quite quick enough to gain enough time and space to utilize his high end skills and defensively he’s a bit lost.

And yeah it’s not like he was torching the AHL. 9 points in 8 games is nice production but other top prospects down there are doing just as well or better.

 

[duckpuck]

Well Zegras was not dominating the AHL so you don't have to worry about it being below him. Also, Terry is absolutely a better NHL player right now than Zegras is unless you base it on how flashy they look on the powerplay.

Seriously? In the AHL, Zegras had 5 points in his first two games and 9 points in eight games. He was player of the week in the short time he was there. He was basically the last of the elite forwards in his draft year to get called up.

Zegras needs to adjust to the size and speed of the NHL - seems to me you need to be in the NHL for that. That is the only thing holding him back, though he'd also benefit from being a bit stronger. But lots of 19-20 years olds play in the NHL before they fill out.

I disagree Terry is a better NHL player. His lack of confidence holds him back. How many times has Terry been back and forth to the AHL to regain his confidence? He dominates the AHL and then gets called up and struggles again - Steel could be put in the same category. Those are the facts. Zegras clearly has the confidence, moxy and skill to compete in the NHL.

Even if you think Terry is currently a better NHL player, that is irrelevant as to where Zegras should be for his development.

 

[Deuce22]

The observant GM did take a gamble on a PP specialist during free agency. From then on, it's the coach. Murray got the PP going when he was interim coach. GM's get the players. Coaches play the players.

With a more veteran lineup in this game, our PK showed up. Why pile on the GM when the coach is the one in charge of who plays. Hey, the roster is increased with the taxi squad as well. Try not to blur job descriptions.

I find it very difficult to believe that this GM has no input into playing time decisions. Are you telling me that it was a coincidence that Henrique was scratched (by the coach) and put on waivers (by the GM) at around the same time? Are you saying that the coach could scratch Shattenkirk if he wished to? This is a GM who came down and coached the team when he didn't like what was going on.

 

[Goose of Reason]

Seriously? In the AHL, Zegras had 5 points in his first two games and 9 points in eight games. He was player of the week in the short time he was there. He was basically the last of the elite forwards in his draft year to get called up.

Zegras needs to adjust to the size and speed of the NHL - seems to me you need to be in the NHL for that. That is the only thing holding him back, though he'd also benefit from being a bit stronger. But lots of 19-20 years olds play in the NHL before they fill out.

I disagree Terry is a better NHL player. His lack of confidence holds him back. How many times has Terry been back and forth to the AHL to regain his confidence? He dominates the AHL and then gets called up and struggles again - Steel could be put in the same category. Those are the facts. Zegras clearly has the confidence, moxy and skill to compete in the NHL.

Even if you think Terry is currently a better NHL player, that is irrelevant as to where Zegras should be for his development.

All you're doing is citing his point totals. Something like 40 players were at a point per game pace in the AHL when he was called up. Zegras was not the best forward on San Diego most games. He has a lot of physical growth to do to play his game at a pro level. All he is right now is a powerplay specialist.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I find it very difficult to believe that this GM has no input into playing time decisions. Are you telling me that it was a coincidence that Henrique was scratched (by the coach) and put on waivers (by the GM) at around the same time? Are you saying that the coach could scratch Shattenkirk if he wished to? This is a GM who came down and coached the team when he didn't like what was going on.

Also he was the first to announce that Zegs would play last Monday. Bob has his hands all over the nightly lineups.

 

[duckpuck]

All you're doing is citing his point totals. Something like 40 players were at a point per game pace in the AHL when he was called up. Zegras was not the best forward on San Diego most games. He has a lot of physical growth to do to play his game at a pro level. All he is right now is a powerplay specialist.

I'll disagree. But again - irrelevant to the larger point. Where is he more likely going to develop the necessary skills? Far and away, what Zegras needs is to adjust to the faster NHL game playing against bigger guys. He won't do that in the AHL. And a big part of development is practicing against NHL players as opposed to AHL.

I don't really care who was the best forward in SD - however you would measure that. There are plenty of career AHL guys like Carrick who are the better players on their AHL team but that is their ceiling. Who cares.

No one has articulated what aspects of Zegras' game can be developed better in the AHL than NHL. I'm open to the possibility, but don't see it.