GDT: GAME 23 | Hurricanes @ Senators | Weathering the Storm | Tue Dec 12 2023, 7PM | TSN5, RDS

[Bileur]

At this point the puck was stopped. Then Brady tripped
View attachment 782397

At this point the puck isn’t stopped and Kotchekov’s stick makes contact with Brady’s skate.

 

[Micklebot]

Did you read flamingos post or click on the link?

Actually click on it. Not only did flamingo clearly say that the drop pass was less successful than dump, carry, etc. but he also posted the article with charts. I've screen shot the charts incase being lazy is your thinking, judging by the lazy arguments.

Also, I've never said they never work. I've never said coaches don't use it. I remember someone on tsn showing that they were effective 3-4 years ago and then every team started doing it...and now, the last couple years? Teams are starting to not do it again.

Like any strategy, they come and go with effectiveness. Coaches adapt. Systems adapt. Players adapt.

Back in the day Jacques Martin and Jacques Lemaire were doing the neutral zone trap almost all the time...and it worked...but now, teams aren't doing it. Why not? Times change.

Goalies were making pad stack saves all the time and it worked. Now they're being told to stay in the butterfly.

Maybe It was effective when it first became popular because teams hadn't adjusted yet.

I work from home and have the total sport package and have nothing but time to watch and record all the games I can handle. Not watching anything on Netflix or anything...and I'm telling you, teams aren't using it nearly as much as a couple years ago...and with good reason. As the chart shows, it's not as successful as the options WITHOUT the initial drop pass.

Yes, I read the article, Funny how you left out this chart. Even the chart you showed has it with a very high success rate for entry, better than any of the passing option, but more important is the end impact, drop passes consistently result in more shots per entry.

Overall, the article makes it clear that the drop pass is an effective strategy when you consider the overall goal of setting up and getting chances on net, but execution is going to always be the difference. It's not a bad system, like anything it has strengths and weaknesses, you trade off one for the other.

There's nothing wrong with it as an entry strategy, which again, is why every team is using it as part of their toolkit.

 

[h2]

Yes, I read the article, Funny how you left out this chart. Even the chart you showed has it with a very high success rate for entry, better than any of the passing option, but more important is the end impact, drop passes consistently result in more shots per entry.

View attachment 783267

Overall, the article makes it clear that the drop pass is an effective strategy when you consider the overall goal of setting up and getting chances on net, but execution is going to always be the difference. It's not a bad system, like anything it has strengths and weaknesses, you trade off one for the other.

There's nothing wrong with it as an entry strategy, which again, is why every team is using it as part of their toolkit.

I think the strategy just looks very bad to the eye test when the entries aren't working. It seems like a waste of time that could have been used otherwise. I was thinking the same thing when I saw failed entry after entry in that Hurricanes game.

The data is quite clear though, it's the best entry method.

 

[Micklebot]

I think the strategy just looks very bad to the eye test when the entries aren't working. It seems like a waste of time that could have been used otherwise. I was thinking the same thing when I saw failed entry after entry in that Hurricanes game.

The data is quite clear though, it's the best entry method.

I don't think it is hands down the best, it's going to depend on your team's personnel and their ability to execute it. If you have dynamic players who can beat guys one on one with speed, it will work better than if you have guys that struggle with carrying the puck, but I agree it looks bad when it doesn't work. It also stands out more, since it's the most obvious

 

[BondraTime]

The drop/carry is undoubtedly the best option for the PP entry. Dishing off and setting up at the half-wall is much, much better than dumping and trying to regain control to swing it out to the point.

It looks worse when it fails, because you legitimately just get turned around in the neutral zone, but it's no different than dumping the puck in and having it be dumped back out 15 seconds later because you can't get control in the zone, or wasting 30 seconds battling down low, it's just less fans will get upset because it's easier to understand the dump in.

Execution is much more important on the drop/carry

 

[DaveMatthew]

It really doesn't matter what the fan base does. What matters is what the customer base does.

Sub-17k crowd against Carolina. Boos and “fire DJ” chants very audible from fan - sorry customer - base.

 

[Flamingo]

The opposition’s PK formation will also dictate which PP zone entry tactic will be more successful. 1-3, easier to dump or pass in. 3-1, easier to start with drop pass so you can compress or back off the PK formation. 4-across (shallow 1-3 or 3-1), dump that puck and charge like you’re playing red rover.

Plus, the drop pass can precede any subsequent tactic — carry, pass wide, pass centre, and (less frequently) dump. And the four PPers without the puck can support with any motion — stand still, circle up. The drop pass really only serves to get the PKers out of your half of the NZ. Its two effects are to disrupt the PK formation and to have the puck carrier gain speed/disrupt the PK gap control.

 

[jbeck5]

Yes, I read the article, Funny how you left out this chart. Even the chart you showed has it with a very high success rate for entry, better than any of the passing option, but more important is the end impact, drop passes consistently result in more shots per entry.

View attachment 783267

Overall, the article makes it clear that the drop pass is an effective strategy when you consider the overall goal of setting up and getting chances on net, but execution is going to always be the difference. It's not a bad system, like anything it has strengths and weaknesses, you trade off one for the other.

There's nothing wrong with it as an entry strategy, which again, is why every team is using it as part of their toolkit.

I think to get the best picture. We would have to look at the success rate of the entry multiplied by the success of getting a shot once you have entry, right?

And you would also have to add up all the non drop pass options and all the drop pass options.

Like the drop pass shows the best chance of getting a shot on your entry, but shows it as the 4th in terms of getting a successful entry.

I'm busy right now, but could add it all up later out of curiosity.

Before I start though, is my math sound?

Step 1) add all non drop pass entries and all drop pass entry. Add up their success rate and get an average.

Step 2) take that success rate for entry for both drop pass and non drop pass entries, and multiply them by their chance of getting a shot once you have entry.

Or am I missing something?

 

[Micklebot]

I think to get the best picture. We would have to look at the success rate of the entry multiplied by the success of getting a shot once you have entry, right?

And you would also have to add up all the non drop pass options and all the drop pass options.

Like the drop pass shows the best chance of getting a shot on your entry, but shows it as the 4th in terms of getting a successful entry.

I'm busy right now, but could add it all up later out of curiosity.

Before I start though, is my math sound?

Step 1) add all non drop pass entries and all drop pass entry. Add up their success rate and get an average.

Step 2) take that success rate for entry for both drop pass and non drop pass entries, and multiply them by their chance of getting a shot once you have entry.

Or am I missing something?

They don't seem to include the raw data, so I don't think you can combine them. It's just given in percentages a per entry.

 

[NyQuil]

Ultimately I think a combination of zone entries is better than any single zone entry style.

Better to keep them guessing. If you go with the one with the highest odds statistically repetitively, I'll bet those odds start to wane pretty quickly.

My beef with the drop pass goes back to some of our completely inept teams that would do it -every single time-.

It reminds me a bit of the Pizza Line when they were at their best which is when Spezza would shoot the puck. If all three guys were equally disposed to passing and shooting, it was harder to defend against them.

Occasionally Spezza would revert back to trying to find Heatley no matter what, at which point it was easier to intercept the obvious pass.

 

[Xspyrit]

If @Xspyrit starts a 3 stars thread after this dog shit game he should be banned.

lol yeah, it's hard to keep the project going with the team being so inconsistent. The goal was really to see a ranking for the whole 82 games but I'm getting mixed messages about this. Some seem to enjoy and some seem to be mad at it when the team loses... As it has been the case for 6 seasons now, apathy is drawing back again and it happens early in the season.

 

[Micklebot]

Ultimately I think a combination of zone entries is better than any single zone entry style.

Better to keep them guessing. If you go with the one with the highest odds statistically repetitively, I'll bet those odds start to wane pretty quickly.

My beef with the drop pass goes back to some of our completely inept teams that would do it -every single time-.

It reminds me a bit of the Pizza Line when they were at their best which is when Spezza would shoot the puck. If all three guys were equally disposed to passing and shooting, it was harder to defend against them.

Occasionally Spezza would revert back to trying to find Heatley no matter what, at which point it was easier to intercept the obvious pass.

You got to take what is available, and sometimes failing at one thing a few times is what opens up something else as the opposition adapts to close out the initial offerings.

 

[2CHAINZ]

lol yeah, it's hard to keep the project going with the team being so inconsistent. The goal was really to see a ranking for the whole 82 games but I'm getting mixed messages about this. Some seem to enjoy and some seem to be mad at it when the team loses... As it has been the case for 6 seasons now, apathy is drawing back again and it happens early in the season.

I was only joking. Although I couldn't pick three stars from that game. I was actually going to start a vote for the three biggest pieces of crap after last game lol. Do your thing man do it every game don't worry about it.

 

[Flamingo]

Ultimately I think a combination of zone entries is better than any single zone entry style.

Better to keep them guessing. If you go with the one with the highest odds statistically repetitively, I'll bet those odds start to wane pretty quickly.

My beef with the drop pass goes back to some of our completely inept teams that would do it -every single time-.

It reminds me a bit of the Pizza Line when they were at their best which is when Spezza would shoot the puck. If all three guys were equally disposed to passing and shooting, it was harder to defend against them.

Occasionally Spezza would revert back to trying to find Heatley no matter what, at which point it was easier to intercept the obvious pass.

And... you have to have the ability to adapt to circumstances. Think of the times a PKer tries to anticipate the drop pass, and the puck carrier recognizes that and simply carries it into the zone.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

At this point the puck isn’t stopped and Kotchekov’s stick makes contact with Brady’s skate.

View attachment 783271

So its a penalty for a stick to make contact with a skate?
at this point his skate is past the stick , he has not tripped and the puck is stopped

 

[UglyPuckling]

lol yeah, it's hard to keep the project going with the team being so inconsistent. The goal was really to see a ranking for the whole 82 games but I'm getting mixed messages about this. Some seem to enjoy and some seem to be mad at it when the team loses... As it has been the case for 6 seasons now, apathy is drawing back again and it happens early in the season.

I'm still watching the games, but I will do other things during commercials & intermissions and won't rush back to catch every second/minute of the game when game action resumes. So, yes it's harder to have the same enthusiasm with another bad start.

 

[JD1]

Sub-17k crowd against Carolina. Boos and “fire DJ” chants very audible from fan - sorry customer - base.

I was at the game. Left with 7 minutes left. Never heard a fire DJ chant once. Maybe after I left.

Is 16,877 a bad crowd on a Tuesday night when the opponent isn't that attractive?

 

[Micklebot]

Is 16,877 a bad crowd on a Tuesday night when the opponent isn't that attractive?

It's above the season average so probably not,

 

[JD1]

I think to get the best picture. We would have to look at the success rate of the entry multiplied by the success of getting a shot once you have entry, right?

And you would also have to add up all the non drop pass options and all the drop pass options.

Like the drop pass shows the best chance of getting a shot on your entry, but shows it as the 4th in terms of getting a successful entry.

I'm busy right now, but could add it all up later out of curiosity.

Before I start though, is my math sound?

Step 1) add all non drop pass entries and all drop pass entry. Add up their success rate and get an average.

Step 2) take that success rate for entry for both drop pass and non drop pass entries, and multiply them by their chance of getting a shot once you have entry.

Or am I missing something?

Not all shots are created equal.

What you really want to know is the goal rate on a dump in versus a drop back. Regardless of whether you gain entry.

It's above the season average so probably not,

Right. That's my point. It was a good crowd for a Tuesday night against a less than stellar draw

 

[Micklebot]

Right. That's my point. It was a good crowd for a Tuesday night against a less than stellar draw

My concern is more that a good number of fans like yourself chose to leave early, I get why, but it seemed like more than one would normally expect. Perhaps Brady getting ejected will do that...

 

[DaveMatthew]

I was at the game. Left with 7 minutes left. Never heard a fire DJ chant once. Maybe after I left.

Is 16,877 a bad crowd on a Tuesday night when the opponent isn't that attractive?

16,877 is a bad crowd. We've just gotten used to bad crowds. Because the team sucks.

9th worst attendance in the league, so far this season.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The drop/carry is undoubtedly the best option for the PP entry. Dishing off and setting up at the half-wall is much, much better than dumping and trying to regain control to swing it out to the point.

It looks worse when it fails, because you legitimately just get turned around in the neutral zone, but it's no different than dumping the puck in and having it be dumped back out 15 seconds later because you can't get control in the zone, or wasting 30 seconds battling down low, it's just less fans will get upset because it's easier to understand the dump in.

Execution is much more important on the drop/carry

Was going to say, glad I scrolled more before posting.

There are a lot of ways to do the drop pass and it may be the best way to gain the zone at the highest possible speed.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

16,877 is a bad crowd. We've just gotten used to bad crowds. Because the team sucks.

9th worst attendance in the league, so far this season.

A bad crowd is 13,000.

Things are a lot better than they were, that's good.

People may run out of patience with this team being bad though.

Everyone assumed Dorion was holding us back but we are going to have to accept the fact that maybe a shit GM just built a bad team.

I know I don't believe this team is underachieving anymore. Once you underachieve for long enough, it becomes regular achieving.

 

[Micklebot]

16,877 is a bad crowd. We've just gotten used to bad crowds. Because the team sucks.

9th worst attendance in the league, so far this season.

In 2015-16 (that's the furthest back I could easily find attendance data), we averaged 18k a game, and even then you'd get a dozen games where attendance was ~17k +/- 200. There are always going to be more and less desirable games, Carolina on a tuesday in early Dec isn't going to draw. 17k is pretty normal for this time of year against a non-draw team.

I mean, it's not a great crowd, but given the context, there's not really anything alarming with that draw.

 

[JD1]

My concern is more that a good number of fans like yourself chose to leave early, I get why, but it seemed like more than one would normally expect. Perhaps Brady getting ejected will do that...

I always leave early down 3. Sometimes up 3 if it's a full house. I'd rather have a clean exit from the lot

16,877 is a bad crowd. We've just gotten used to bad crowds. Because the team sucks.

9th worst attendance in the league, so far this season.

Well it would have been 16,878 if you were there.

There's a lot of reasons we have thinner crowds. Those reasons have been discussed here and nauseum.