GDT: G37: Senators @ Wild | 6:45PM

[Roman Maroni]

To be fair, Gaudreau is among the least of our problems at the moment

I’m not mad at Freddy at all, I like him. Just not a fan of the contract.

 

[AKL]

I’m not mad at Freddy at all, I like him. Just not a fan of the contract.

At least it's a low AAV, even if the term was too long

 

[Puhis]

We need goal scoring forwards desperately. I think I know a guy and we wouldn't even have to trade for him.

Of course we do. But the problem tonight (and some other nights) has been discrepancy and lack of chemistry. Seems that the 1st and 4th (in their current iteration) are roughly on the same page - 1st plays that skill game with Kaprizov running the show and meshing well with Zucc and Rossi, 4th takes by force whatever they can. Latter hasn't been on the scoresheet much (an understatement, yea) but they've played their part. Kush was once again one of the bright spots tonight, even if detractors only look at the stats.

Whatever we're doing with middle six is just not working. Yea Ek's first game back, but seems they're somehow trying to emulate earlier success and playing off quick rushes which then lead to nowhere. I have my views on what it is but... eh. Can't be arsed to do a write-up when reactionary takes and doomer posts are clearly trending.

 

[Roman Maroni]

At least it's a low AAV, even if the term was too long

Exactly….and the 15 team NTC

 

[Puhis]

Calm down.

Sigh. That's just such a tired cliché.

I didn't say Spurgeon was the only one. Just that he was directly in involved in both of the goals against that mattered.

Might be worth expanding on that then, instead of using "stats" as an argument without taking context of the overall game into account. Would make for better discussion.

Point is, I heavily disagree with the original argument. Yea, I'd get that if one just watched the box score but I'm assuming you watched the game, and I know you to have the mental capacity & experience to process it. On that context, it just seems like such a lazy take to call him out specifically.

As said, I thought that despite what the first mistake lead to and that penalty somehow getting called, he had an overall okay game. Not great or good by any means when you take what happened into account, but also hella unlucky stat-wise.

 

[Luceni]

Unlucky games like that happen once in a while. Wild robbed 2 points out of Dallas 2 days ago. Tonight the've hit 4 posts and the refs sucked too imo. It happens.

What gives me a headache is the fact that the PK still looks horrible. Boldy is dealing with a slump and Hartman is useless atm. Both should normally provide some secondary scoring.

Gus still playing on a good level. This is the key for this team. Gus gives them the chance to win every game, regardless how poor the forwards perform.

 

[57special]

Unlucky games like that happen once in a while. Wild robbed 2 points out of Dallas 2 days ago. Tonight the've hit 4 posts and the refs sucked too imo. It happens.

What gives me a headache is the fact that the PK still looks horrible. Boldy is dealing with a slump and Hartman is useless atm. Both should normally provide some secondary scoring.

Gus still playing on a good level. This is the key for this team. Gus gives them the chance to win every game, regardless how poor the forwards perform.

To me, Hartman is a guy whose stats have been pumped the past three years up by getting TOI with Kaprizov, and by being in the top 6, when he's really always been a bottom six guy. Or should i say, an aging bottom six guy who just got his first contract of note.

Boldy is a different story. To me, he's a very tlented player who started the year off very well, but is just, off. I am optimistic for him going forward.

Totally agree with Gus, which is good, because we got nothing backing him up.

I would love it if this team could bench non performing players in favor of young, hungry ones, but the AHL'ers they have brought up so far have nothing to offer.

BTW, that penalty by Bogo was stupid as hell....

 

[Spurgeon]

The depth scoring shouldn’t be a problem next year when Ohgren and Yurov are added. I do wish they had another $7.5M to replace Foligno/Trenin with a Top 6 winger though so they could bump Yurov down to the third line in the following line-up:

Kap - Rossi - Zucc
Yurov - Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Khusnutdinov - Hartman
Foligno - Gaudreau - Trenin

To me, Hartman is a guy whose stats have been pumped the past three years up by getting TOI with Kaprizov, and by being in the top 6, when he's really always been a bottom six guy. Or should i say, an aging bottom six guy who just got his first contract of note.

I think it’s fair to state that Hartman isn’t a Top 6 player, but I think he’s a perfectly competent middle 6 forward that has the capability of playing up the lineup when he’s needed. He’s a great utility player that has run into a long stretch of bad luck. If you focus on him during shifts, he still does a lot of the good things you expect of him. He’s getting scoring opportunities, he’s very active on the forecheck, and he forces turnovers. He just isn’t scoring.

 

[Roman Maroni]

The depth scoring shouldn’t be a problem next year when Ohgren and Yurov are added. I do wish they had another $7.5M to replace Foligno/Trenin with a Top 6 winger though so they could bump Yurov down to the third line in the following line-up:

Kap - Rossi - Zucc
Yurov - Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Khusnutdinov - Hartman
Foligno - Gaudreau - Trenin



I think it’s fair to state that Hartman isn’t a Top 6 player, but I think he’s a perfectly competent middle 6 forward that has the capability of playing up the lineup when he’s needed. He’s a great utility player that has run into a long stretch of bad luck. If you focus on him during shifts, he still does a lot of the good things you expect of him. He’s getting scoring opportunities, he’s very active on the forecheck, and he forces turnovers. He just isn’t scoring.

There in lies one of the big problems. 4th line of Foligno-Gaudreau-Trenin, while liking the players in that capacity, is way too much money to spend on 4th line.

By dropping those players to the 4th. You have to pinch pennies further up the lineup. Not ideal. Freddy's contract is bearable down there, but Folignos and Trenins cost is way too high. Use that money higher up the lineup and get some offensive help. Like the players. Hate the contracts.....

 

[AKL]

Also not sure we can or should rely on Ohgren or Yurov to fill any major scoring role next year.

I'd like them to sign a 1-2 year stopgap UFA, but one that can actually play top six, none of this Johansson/Trenin crap.

 

[Roman Maroni]

Im sure I’ll get flamed for this, but I think this lineup is built to get through the buyout years. Billy got a bunch of depth players to outkick their coverage per se. Players that are locker room guys etc. and to Billy’s credit, for the most part it’s worked. Always a playoff contender but that’s as far as it goes. And before I go any further, I’ll say I do like the players we have. But it’s flawed.
Overpaying some quality locker room guys, either money wise and or term wise with the NMCs is a killer. We have a defense which is fast and mobile, but not terribly physical. It also isn’t a defense that is going to give you a lot of offense (Brodin). So to get the physicality you add the Folignos and Trenins and Hartmanns to get the physicality, at the expense of less offense. Now you really put the pressure on the top 2 lines.
In a perfect world, if you had a more physical defense, you could go a little more offensive minded on your bottom 6 to help the offense in times like this.
Heck, right now, they are relying on a defense who isn’t really known for offense to carry them, when they should be looking at the bottom 6 for help. And the bottom 6 don’t have the personnel to help. All it can do is forecheck and do the dirty work. It sure as heck can’t score with any regularity.
Hoping that in the future, the roster philosophy changes, but I doubt it. After all it’s Minnesota, meaning defense first above all else.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Im sure I’ll get flamed for this, but I think this lineup is built to get through the buyout years. Billy got a bunch of depth players to outkick their coverage per se. Players that are locker room guys etc. and to Billy’s credit, for the most part it’s worked. Always a playoff contender but that’s as far as it goes. And before I go any further, I’ll say I do like the players we have. But it’s flawed.
Overpaying some quality locker room guys, either money wise and or term wise with the NMCs is a killer. We have a defense which is fast and mobile, but not terribly physical. It also isn’t a defense that is going to give you a lot of offense (Brodin). So to get the physicality you add the Folignos and Trenins and Hartmanns to get the physicality, at the expense of less offense. Now you really put the pressure on the top 2 lines.
In a perfect world, if you had a more physical defense, you could go a little more offensive minded on your bottom 6 to help the offense in times like this.
Heck, right now, they are relying on a defense who isn’t really known for offense to carry them, when they should be looking at the bottom 6 for help. And the bottom 6 don’t have the personnel to help. All it can do is forecheck and do the dirty work. It sure as heck can’t score with any regularity.
Hoping that in the future, the roster philosophy changes, but I doubt it. After all it’s Minnesota, meaning defense first above all else.

Why would you get flamed for that? It’s exactly what it is. I don’t think anybody would disagree with you, at all.

 

[f7ben]

Why would you get flamed for that? It’s exactly what it is. I don’t think anybody would disagree with you, at all.

There were certainly issues with his summation. Namely Billy has committed to lots of pylons well past the buyouts and he has shown exactly what he’s after in a player.

 

[AKL]

Namely Billy has committed to lots of pylons well past the buyouts and he has shown exactly what he’s after in a player.

Yeah I don't think anything he said is necessarily wrong, but I don't think it's going to end after the buyouts are gone. It's not like he's just overpaying the guys like Trenin and Foligno just because of the dead cap, he's doing it because that's what he values, and that won't change when we have more cap space.

 

[Luceni]

Im sure I’ll get flamed for this, but I think this lineup is built to get through the buyout years. Billy got a bunch of depth players to outkick their coverage per se. Players that are locker room guys etc. and to Billy’s credit, for the most part it’s worked. Always a playoff contender but that’s as far as it goes. And before I go any further, I’ll say I do like the players we have. But it’s flawed.
Overpaying some quality locker room guys, either money wise and or term wise with the NMCs is a killer. We have a defense which is fast and mobile, but not terribly physical. It also isn’t a defense that is going to give you a lot of offense (Brodin). So to get the physicality you add the Folignos and Trenins and Hartmanns to get the physicality, at the expense of less offense. Now you really put the pressure on the top 2 lines.
In a perfect world, if you had a more physical defense, you could go a little more offensive minded on your bottom 6 to help the offense in times like this.
Heck, right now, they are relying on a defense who isn’t really known for offense to carry them, when they should be looking at the bottom 6 for help. And the bottom 6 don’t have the personnel to help. All it can do is forecheck and do the dirty work. It sure as heck can’t score with any regularity.
Hoping that in the future, the roster philosophy changes, but I doubt it. After all it’s Minnesota, meaning defense first above all else.

I agree with everything you just said, its a very good post. Any smart GM who takes over a franchise with that much dead money because of buyouts would probably trying to handle it that way.

As for Guerin, I do believe that he pays for what he values. Thats size, grit and locker room qualities. He's at least acted like that in the past. So my fear is with Guerin, that @AKL is probabably closer to that truth than we would like:

Yeah I don't think anything he said is necessarily wrong, but I don't think it's going to end after the buyouts are gone. It's not like he's just overpaying the guys like Trenin and Foligno just because of the dead cap, he's doing it because that's what he values, and that won't change when we have more cap space.

I do believe that Wild would be in a very comfortable spot when the dead money times are over. They could send a very dangerous team on the ice if the GM makes the right moves in that situation in future. I highly doubt if Guerin is the right GM for this job when that time comes, based on the things he values and is ready to pay for the most.

 

[NHL1674]

I agree with everything you just said, its a very good post. Any smart GM who takes over a franchise with that much dead money because of buyouts would probably trying to handle it that way.

As for Guerin, I do believe that he pays for what he values. Thats size, grit and locker room qualities. He's at least acted like that in the past. So my fear is with Guerin, that @AKL is probabably closer to that truth than we would like:

What's frustrating is that we're seeing how just size and grit doesn't score you many goals. He's put most of his eggs in that basket, and these are the results. Problem is, he won't see it. He's stubborn and petty. He's most likely so convinced and focused on all of this size and grit helping in the playoffs that he can't see how it's backfiring and slowly blocking our ability to even get that far. He would be more willing to part with someone smaller who can score versus a guy who is a big hitter but clueless with the puck. It's infuriating.

 

[Luceni]

What's frustrating is that we're seeing how just size and grit doesn't score you many goals. He's put most of his eggs in that basket, and these are the results. Problem is, he won't see it. He's stubborn and petty. He's most likely so convinced and focused on all of this size and grit helping in the playoffs that he can't see how it's backfiring and slowly blocking our ability to even get that far. He would be more willing to part with someone smaller who can score versus a guy who is a big hitter but clueless with the puck. It's infuriating.

To be fair, the wild are a playoff team atm, fighting for home ice advantage. So yes, Guerin probably believes he's done excactly the right things handling out NMC contracts with high salaries to bottom 9 players.

But the truth is this team goes as far as Gus & Kap are capable to carry them. But in the end it won't be enough to do some serious damage in playoffs: The skill & talent level to help Gus & Kap simply isn't there. Im not sure if Guerin can see this. Maybe Yurov or Rossi can develope in one of those guys to help Kap & Gus but we all read from Russo how Guerin values smallish Players.

The question is when all the cap handicaps are gone, will Guerin try a different approach to handle the situation to make this team better? Will he stop overpaying for grit, size and locker-room qualities? Will skill, talent and speed rise in his personal value chart? I highly doubt that and thats the sad part, because I really believe when the dead money is gone the Wild could become serious contenders. If we aren't contenders in 3 years from now, Guerin did an afwul job.