Good points, much of this depends on where the economy goes from here, and changing demographics also play a major concern few openly discuss (one of the issues facing ATL for example). In the southern markets these are issues to be sure, what would happen in places like NSH or TB if those teams went through long losing droughts? Right now support is looking up in some areas, while question marks remain in others (such as ATL and long-term for FLA).
Nashville's had their issues. So has Tampa Bay. For that matter, so have the Blues, Blackhawks and Capitals. And all that revolves around the fact that if the organization doesn't appear to be attempting to put a worthwhile product on the ice, something has to give. Unless you are the Maple Leafs.
If we ever enter a "post-Bettman" age of more traditional ownership in true hockey markets it would be interesting to see. If we do get to that point I would even support contraction to 28 teams and go back to four divisions (of 7 teams each). The only thing that does bother me is this incessant drive into non-traditional markets that Bettman has been forcing (mainly due to attracting that lucrative TV deal that has never materialized). If and when PHX heads back north, I think this may (hopefully) signal a significant strategic shift for the NHL.
Shift? Yes. And I think this has more to do with the current CBA than anything else.
I do disagree with the assessment that this is all Bettman's fault. The four most recent expansion teams were granted under his tenure, but the BoG had to do the heavy lifting to determine the viable markets. The three WHA teams that moved south happened at the beginning of his tenure, and let's face it, at the time the Canadian dollar was weak and the governments (both Canadian and the State of Connecticut) weren't about to help. And there weren't other viable ownership groups ready to step in. And let's not forget that the television contracts are about to pick up now, after the leader in sports kicked the NHL to the curb. It is pretty good to go from post-lockout a $60 million national TV contract five years ago to over $200 million starting next year.
Besides, there are still a few locations left in the US up north with a firm hockey tradition far more viable than plowing into other potential disastrous markets such as Vegas. Would love to see a team back home in the PNW for example (either Portland or Seattle). For Canada, obviously Quebec and possibly Hamilton/London/Kitchener/etc. Outside of there, and the talk of a second team in the GTA, where else could a team in Canada go? Saskatoon is not large enough IMHO.
Okay, but I'll pull this one back out...
Expansion occurred in 1967 because the TV networks threatend the NHL stating they'd start broadcasting a competing league. That expansion process was so poor that the complaints the NHL left out Vancouver and Buffalo were rectified, as those two were added in 1970. Atlanta and the Islanders were mainly added to lockout the WHA from those markets. Same happened in 1974 with Washington and Kansas City.
Keep in mind during the 1990 expansion process that Seattle and Milwaukee were each going to present to the BoG, and the Seattle group split and withdrew their application, while Milwaukee's was never submitted because they would have had to pay indemnification fees to the Blackhawks and Wirtz.
As always, business takes precedence to common sense.
If the Yotes move, well there would have to be a significant chain of events to occur before the NHL could ever be viable here again in AZ. This is just not a hockey state (unfortunately), there is little tradition. Even at the collegiate level all we have are shoddy club teams not even officially sanctioned at the NCAA level. I really need to get out of here........
Your closest NCAA teams are in the Denver area, and there aren't too many NCAA division I teams nationwide. I'd say California isn't a hockey state, but they are actually starting to produce NHL talent. At that point, it will be a matter of when Phoenix is ready for the NHL (again), just like Minnesota, Atlanta, Colorado and now Winnipeg.