NHL Entry Draft Future Draft Watch

[BondraTime]

A couple of guys I had watched in the Maritimes prior to their Q drafts who fit what the Sens have been doing lately and should/could be available around our 3rd/4th picks are Brady Peddle and Will Reynolds.

Both are huge, physical, defensive D.

Not sure the team will be looking for more physical/defensive guys, but they are two that would be pretty likely around 96th/97th

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Haven't been following as closely but I still think Bill Zonnon could be a good target. Not sure how he compares with other players in our range though.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

LJ Mooney is ranked 80th on Mckenzie's final list. It seems like there is some interesting upside there and that kind of pick range offsets the risks associated with drafting him.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Charlie Cerrato is an interesting over age option.

 

[Ouroboros]

This is going to be an interesting draft for Ottawa. Is this the year they take some soft skill? Not sure, but they've avoided this player archetype for so long that they may have to draft some even if they don't really like doing it. Haven't taken a guy in that mould since Jonathan Dahlen back in 2016 I guess.

I have a really difficult time envisioning them drafting somebody like Ben Kindel. The undersized, mediocre skater archetype has such a high bust rate, even among guys with high IQ. Even when they hit a 50 point winger isn't really all that valuable - these sort of players are always abundant and relatively easy to acquire.

I don't see them taking a defenseman at 21. I know teams say they don't draft for need, but the Sens have drafted very defense heavy in recent years. Their first two picks in 2024 were Yakemchuk and Eliasson, and their first two picks in 2023 were Stanley and Andonovski.

I think Milton Gästrin makes a lot of sense for them. Will Horcoff - as mentioned by others - makes a lot of sense. Will Moore. My personal choice would be to hope Cole Reschny is still on the board at 21, but that's probably not going to happen.

In general, this draft doesn't seem deep on the types of players the Sens like to draft. Just not a lot of big, toolsy, athletic types. Nonetheless I've put together a list of guys I think will be on their radar...

96/97: Lucas Beckman, Aidan Lane, Hugo Orrsten, Shamar Moses, Charlie Cerrato, Atte Joki, Francesco Dell'Elce, Zeb Lindgren, Brady Peddle
149: Charlie Paquette, Carter Klippenstein, Quinn Beauchesne, Jordan Charron, Luke Vlooswyk, Will Belle, Aron Dahlqvist, Edison Engle, Burke Hood, Petteri Rimpinen
181: Aiden Foster, Florent Houle, Caden Taylor, Will Sharpe, Shea Busch, Andrew O'Neill, Josh Glavin, Evan Passmore, Raiden LeGall
213: Rasmus Svartström, Maxon Vig, Max Heise, Elias Jansson, Brendan Dunphy, Dawson Gerwing, Nate Corbet, David Granberg, Ritter Coombs

 

[BondraTime]

Sam Laurlia
Bruno Idzan
Caeden Herrington
Aiden Park
Richard Baron

A few of the better USHL overagers, the have dipped into that pool quite often

Using their template the past 3 drafts (since Coivd restrictions ended):

Size with all picks
Physical players
Hope for progression for most guys taken, not all very good at the moment of the draft
Very little, almost non existent other than Yak and Halliday, offense
Gone with USHL overagers once each draft
11 guys headed (at the time) to NCAA
3 out of BCHL, 2 out of USHS. They go for guys playing in lesser leagues quite often

Using thier template, which has been almost dead on accurate the past 3 dtrafts, you could get a pretty clear picture on who they are going to be taking.

I can't imagine they are going to continue with that though, as their pool is legitimately missing offense everywhere. They need to make picks they seem to be allergic too the past 4 years, I am guessing this draft will be significantly different than the previous 4.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Sam Laurlia
Bruno Idzan
Caeden Herrington
Aiden Park
Richard Baron

A few of the better USHL overagers, the have dipped into that pool quite often

Using their template the past 3 drafts (since Coivd restrictions ended):

Size with all picks
Physical players
Hope for progression for most guys taken, not all very good at the moment of the draft
Very little, almost non existent other than Yak and Halliday, offense
Gone with USHL overagers once each draft
11 guys headed (at the time) to NCAA
3 out of BCHL, 2 out of USHS. They go for guys playing in lesser leagues quite often

Using thier template, which has been almost dead on accurate the past 3 dtrafts, you could get a pretty clear picture on who they are going to be taking.

I can't imagine they are going to continue with that though, as their pool is legitimately missing offense everywhere. They need to make picks they seem to be allergic too the past 4 years, I am guessing this draft will be significantly different than the previous 4.

One thing I'd be interested in understanding better is how much of what we perceive to be this scouting staff's preferences in players is established by the direction of the GM/POHO. Like with Murray and Dorion, they presumably gave the scouts some kind of mandate - we want these kinds of players and we prioritize these specific traits - and the scouting staff worked knowing that's what they were looking for. Could Staios come in, tell the same group of scouts "we now value these traits and we want this type of player", and the scouting staff would adapt? Or would you really need to change up the personnel, because our scouts are our scouts because they are aligned with the Murray/Dorion drafting philosophy.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Sam Laurlia
Bruno Idzan
Caeden Herrington
Aiden Park
Richard Baron

A few of the better USHL overagers, the have dipped into that pool quite often

Using their template the past 3 drafts (since Coivd restrictions ended):

Size with all picks
Physical players
Hope for progression for most guys taken, not all very good at the moment of the draft
Very little, almost non existent other than Yak and Halliday, offense
Gone with USHL overagers once each draft
11 guys headed (at the time) to NCAA
3 out of BCHL, 2 out of USHS. They go for guys playing in lesser leagues quite often

Using thier template, which has been almost dead on accurate the past 3 dtrafts, you could get a pretty clear picture on who they are going to be taking.

I can't imagine they are going to continue with that though, as their pool is legitimately missing offense everywhere. They need to make picks they seem to be allergic too the past 4 years, I am guessing this draft will be significantly different than the previous 4.

NCAA eligibility for CHL players might be an interesting factor worth considering. How does that impact NHL team rights to players? If a prospect starts in the CHL and then transfers to the NCAA does that extend their rights or is there a set time frame before those rights expire?

If the rights get extended then the Sens and other NHL team might be drawn to a different set of CHL players. They might be much more willing to draft players that are raw or have limited exposure to in the CHL. Shaan Kingwell is an example with strong performance in the CCHL and just shy of 0.5 pts per game in the OHL but only a small sample size of 11 games played.

The CHL-NCAA dynamic could actually create a lot of changes. A lot of raw prospects in the USHL could be appealing as could players in the 2nd tier leagues. The option to transfer them to the CHL for development purposes without losing their NCAA eligibility and potentially extending their rights if they go the NCAA route could make a lot of prospects appealing that teams might have been hesitant to consider drafting before.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Aidan Lane has some interesting tools.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Does anyone have a scouting report on Rafael Cloutier?
Rafael Cloutier - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
It seems like he has good size, is very young, intriguing stats from lesser leagues, limited QMJHL time but still interesting production, and an NCAA commit.

 

[Senator Stanley]

This is going to be an interesting draft for Ottawa. Is this the year they take some soft skill? Not sure, but they've avoided this player archetype for so long that they may have to draft some even if they don't really like doing it. Haven't taken a guy in that mould since Jonathan Dahlen back in 2016 I guess.

I have a really difficult time envisioning them drafting somebody like Ben Kindel. The undersized, mediocre skater archetype has such a high bust rate, even among guys with high IQ. Even when they hit a 50 point winger isn't really all that valuable - these sort of players are always abundant and relatively easy to acquire.

I don't see them taking a defenseman at 21. I know teams say they don't draft for need, but the Sens have drafted very defense heavy in recent years. Their first two picks in 2024 were Yakemchuk and Eliasson, and their first two picks in 2023 were Stanley and Andonovski.

I think Milton Gästrin makes a lot of sense for them. Will Horcoff - as mentioned by others - makes a lot of sense. Will Moore. My personal choice would be to hope Cole Reschny is still on the board at 21, but that's probably not going to happen.

In general, this draft doesn't seem deep on the types of players the Sens like to draft. Just not a lot of big, toolsy, athletic types. Nonetheless I've put together a list of guys I think will be on their radar...

96/97: Lucas Beckman, Aidan Lane, Hugo Orrsten, Shamar Moses, Charlie Cerrato, Atte Joki, Francesco Dell'Elce, Zeb Lindgren, Brady Peddle
149: Charlie Paquette, Carter Klippenstein, Quinn Beauchesne, Jordan Charron, Luke Vlooswyk, Will Belle, Aron Dahlqvist, Edison Engle, Burke Hood, Petteri Rimpinen
181: Aiden Foster, Florent Houle, Caden Taylor, Will Sharpe, Shea Busch, Andrew O'Neill, Josh Glavin, Evan Passmore, Raiden LeGall
213: Rasmus Svartström, Maxon Vig, Max Heise, Elias Jansson, Brendan Dunphy, Dawson Gerwing, Nate Corbet, David Granberg, Ritter Coombs

For the record, I also can't envision them taking Kindel, but as his agent (not official), I would push back on the "if he hits he's still not that valuable" argument a bit. For a team to take a Kindel or Reschny as high as 21OA, I think they have to believe there is higher-end upside than just "50 point winger". That can be one potential outcome, but to take the swing at 21OA I think you have to believe that there's realistic 75-80+ point potential there (along with enough of the other traits you'd want in a player to have them on your roster - compete, character, etc. - which I think Kindel and Reschny both have).

Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of Reschny at 21OA because I struggle to see that 80 point outcome and I'm also pretty cautious when it comes to small and not-speedy forwards. Not saying it's impossible, but I find that outcome hard to believe in. With Kindel, I can see it. I'm not saying it's his most likely outcome, but I think it's in play for him, and that for me completely changes the risk-reward calculus. I can live with the bust risk that comes with the small but not speedy archetype when there's plausible homerun upside to go along with the "50 point winger" medium-high outcome you described.

It's possible I just saw too much of Kindel this year, while tuning in to watch Yakemchuk, and have lost perspective on the player. And of course obviously Ottawa isn't taking him.

 

[Hale The Villain]

For the record, I also can't envision them taking Kindel, but as his agent (not official), I would push back on the "if he hits he's still not that valuable" argument a bit. For a team to take a Kindel or Reschny as high as 21OA, I think they have to believe there is higher-end upside than just "50 point winger". That can be one potential outcome, but to take the swing at 21OA I think you have to believe that there's realistic 75-80+ point potential there (along with enough of the other traits you'd want in a player to have them on your roster - compete, character, etc. - which I think Kindel and Reschny both have).

Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of Reschny at 21OA because I struggle to see that 80 point outcome and I'm also pretty cautious when it comes to small and not-speedy forwards. Not saying it's impossible, but I find that outcome hard to believe in. With Kindel, I can see it. I'm not saying it's his most likely outcome, but I think it's in play for him, and that for me completely changes the risk-reward calculus. I can live with the bust risk that comes with the small but not speedy archetype when there's plausible homerun upside to go along with the "50 point winger" medium-high outcome you described.

It's possible I just saw too much of Kindel this year, while tuning in to watch Yakemchuk, and have lost perspective on the player. And of course obviously Ottawa isn't taking him.

Yeah I'm a big fan of Kindel as well.

I've been around HF long enough to remember pretty much every small player with great skill/smarts but without great skating being compared to Giroux throughout the 2010s (now Suzuki gets thrown around instead), but Kindel is a player for which the comparison actually fits fairly well.

In hindsight people wonder how Giroux fell to 22 in 2006 after putting up 103 points and was continually passed up by teams for players nowhere near as talented or intelligent. He fell for the exact same reasons Kindel could fall late into the 1st round with 99 points in his draft year.

Like Giroux his best quality is his hockey IQ. Thinks the game at a very high level. Rarely makes a poor play and makes everyone around him better.

Also like Giroux, he's not a one-trick pony. He may be small and light but he's got a pretty good shot. He's not a pure-playmaking Marner type. He could be a dual-threat guy that defenders fear on the PP, due to not knowing whether he's going to fire it or deliver a perfect pass to a teammate.

Of course Kindel could also bust if his skating doesn't improve at all and he doesn't grow or struggles to put on weight, but I don't know how you pass up a kid with his ceiling for some of the names being thrown out in this thread that are 3rd/4th liners at best if they make it.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

What are the developmental advantages of going the CHL route? It kind of seems the the NCAA-CHL dynamic might complicate that. There are already a number of top tier CHL players committed to playing in the NCAA and many of them will be doing that in their D+1 and D+2 seasons. That should lead to a reduction in talent across the league. There could be an influx of USHL/NAHL players as well as players from the AJHL, BCHL, CCHL, OJHL, etc of both drafted and undrafted players as they will no longer lose their NCAA eligibility for doing that. The CHL might get younger and the might give more opportunities to raw and less developed players.

It seems like this NCAA-CHL dynamic is going to have a much more significant impact on scouting and development. The development advantages of the CHL should change as well as the overall talent pool, which will change how prospects are evaluated. If players leave those other leagues and go the CHL route then that will make those other leagues less competitive and make it harder to evaluate prospects playing in those leagues.

Will it mean that all players pretty much go the CHL route and those other leagues get weaker? Will there be any advantages to keeping players in those leagues such as the USHL. With the reduction in talent will that delay the development of players going the CHL route? Will the influx of players from those other leagues be enough to offset the exodus of other players to make the developmental advantages be comparable to what they are now?

 

[Ouroboros]

For the record, I also can't envision them taking Kindel, but as his agent (not official), I would push back on the "if he hits he's still not that valuable" argument a bit. For a team to take a Kindel or Reschny as high as 21OA, I think they have to believe there is higher-end upside than just "50 point winger". That can be one potential outcome, but to take the swing at 21OA I think you have to believe that there's realistic 75-80+ point potential there (along with enough of the other traits you'd want in a player to have them on your roster - compete, character, etc. - which I think Kindel and Reschny both have).

Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of Reschny at 21OA because I struggle to see that 80 point outcome and I'm also pretty cautious when it comes to small and not-speedy forwards. Not saying it's impossible, but I find that outcome hard to believe in. With Kindel, I can see it. I'm not saying it's his most likely outcome, but I think it's in play for him, and that for me completely changes the risk-reward calculus. I can live with the bust risk that comes with the small but not speedy archetype when there's plausible homerun upside to go along with the "50 point winger" medium-high outcome you described.

It's possible I just saw too much of Kindel this year, while tuning in to watch Yakemchuk, and have lost perspective on the player. And of course obviously Ottawa isn't taking him.

I don't think you need to project Kindel's upside as anywhere near 80 points to take him at 21 in a below-average draft such as this one. The Sens are going to be picking from a large group of players who all have substantial flaws.

In general, teams have become much more willing to draft smaller forwards if they believe the upside warrants it. In recent years we've seen Berkly Catton, Zach Benson, Matt Savoie, Frank Nazar, Marco Rossi and others get taken very high. I think if there was a belief that Kindel had high-end upside he'd be ranked higher than being lumped in with guys like Cam Reid, Malcolm Spence and Blake Fiddler.

I prefer Reschny because I see his competitiveness, defensive skills and faceoff ability as giving him a better chance to play C as a pro. I was really sold on him in the playoffs where he was a dominant 2-way force for Victoria. I liked him a lot more at the U-18 and Hlinka as well.

Ultimately none of this probably matters because the Sens are unlikely to draft either player.

One thing I'd be interested in understanding better is how much of what we perceive to be this scouting staff's preferences in players is established by the direction of the GM/POHO. Like with Murray and Dorion, they presumably gave the scouts some kind of mandate - we want these kinds of players and we prioritize these specific traits - and the scouting staff worked knowing that's what they were looking for. Could Staios come in, tell the same group of scouts "we now value these traits and we want this type of player", and the scouting staff would adapt? Or would you really need to change up the personnel, because our scouts are our scouts because they are aligned with the Murray/Dorion drafting philosophy.

I think this can have a big impact. The Sens took a lot more swings on soft skill under Murray [Karlsson, Petersson, Hoffman, Wideman, Prince, Dzingel] than they ever did with Dorion as GM. When they began the rebuild in 2018, Dorion straight up said that they were moving away from drafting 'risky skilled players' in the later rounds and they really stuck to that mandate incredibly rigidly.

I don't think we yet have a whole lot of insight into what type of player Staios values.

 

[DrEasy]

One thing I'd be interested in understanding better is how much of what we perceive to be this scouting staff's preferences in players is established by the direction of the GM/POHO. Like with Murray and Dorion, they presumably gave the scouts some kind of mandate - we want these kinds of players and we prioritize these specific traits - and the scouting staff worked knowing that's what they were looking for. Could Staios come in, tell the same group of scouts "we now value these traits and we want this type of player", and the scouting staff would adapt? Or would you really need to change up the personnel, because our scouts are our scouts because they are aligned with the Murray/Dorion drafting philosophy.

Why should the scouts be given a mandate as for the kind of player to pick? Shouldn't it simply be the best player overall regardless of the profile? You're not going to necessarily keep all the players you're drafting, surely you want the ones who have the most value even if it's for trading purposes.

We're handicapping ourselves by limiting ourselves to a certain profile. Even if we wanted our team to be 100% made up of goons, we could draft, say, one Ginkel and trade him for two Eliassons. Still better than just drafting one Eliasson instead.

 

[Ice-Tray]

One thing is for sure, there will be some guys who end up diamonds in the rough. The fact that there isn’t really a consensus could be a very good thing for all of the teams picking in the third quarter of the draft. Sucks for the top teams maybe, but not necessarily us.

Scouting has to come through for us here

 

[Hun]

One thing I'd be interested in understanding better is how much of what we perceive to be this scouting staff's preferences in players is established by the direction of the GM/POHO. Like with Murray and Dorion, they presumably gave the scouts some kind of mandate - we want these kinds of players and we prioritize these specific traits - and the scouting staff worked knowing that's what they were looking for. Could Staios come in, tell the same group of scouts "we now value these traits and we want this type of player", and the scouting staff would adapt? Or would you really need to change up the personnel, because our scouts are our scouts because they are aligned with the Murray/Dorion drafting philosophy.

The general manager determines the type of player needed. Scouts never decide what types of players to select.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Staios seems to prioritize smarts, ability to forecheck and win board battles, and speed the most.

 

[GCK]

Eh, I can at least understand that. Size and skating ability, seems to be a good athlete.

He just doesn’t have the hockey skills to go with it yet

I am high on this kid. I’m expecting a big jump this year. I have him as a big riser over the next 2 - 3 years. Needs a ton of coaching but there is a player there.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Staios seems to prioritize smarts, ability to forecheck and win board battles, and speed the most.

I hope so. We definitely need more brains and speed on this roster.


I must say though, I haven't watched much film or gone on any deep dive of any of the kids this year, but from the little I've been reading and browsing of conversations...it seems like there is a lot of kids this year with average to poor skating? Seems odd that the NHL and developmental leagues have been pushing skating for a good decade or more now, but all of a sudden we're seeing a lot of kids where it isn't a strength compared to the last few years? Or maybe it's just how profile are written these days where everyone is expected to have a much higher skating baseline and they're judging on that?

 

[BondraTime]

I am high on this kid. I’m expecting a big jump this year. I have him as a big riser over the next 2 - 3 years. Needs a ton of coaching but there is a player there.

Here's hoping, he was a bottom pair CHL guy this past year

 

[Icelevel]

Why should the scouts be given a mandate as for the kind of player to pick? Shouldn't it simply be the best player overall regardless of the profile? You're not going to necessarily keep all the players you're drafting, surely you want the ones who have the most value even if it's for trading purposes.

We're handicapping ourselves by limiting ourselves to a certain profile. Even if we wanted our team to be 100% made up of goons, we could draft, say, one Ginkel and trade him for two Eliassons. Still better than just drafting one Eliasson instead.

There is a type of player SS wants. And that’s an impact player. Someone with high compete, iq and ability to influence positively.
It’s not like he’s telling them to get a 6’4” low skill north south guy.
They just want players who compete and can contribute. In general.
He’s been addressing our needs and weaknesses well so far. We are lucky it’s going in this direction now.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Alex identifies 4 potentials in the Draft. It's not unlikely the pick comes from this group. I personally think Nesbitt will go earlier than 21.

Potential Round 1 options
Jack Nesbitt, C, 6-foot-4, 185 pounds, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
Nesbitt was the name our scouting expert Jason Bukala said would be a perfect fit in Ottawa. He's a big body who can play centre and wing while providing high-end compete and excellent net front battle. He excels at the bumper spot on the power play. Nesbitt netted 25 goals and 64 points in Windsor last season.
Bill Zonnon, C, 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
Zonnon is likely a player who will still be available at 21 for the Senators. Bukala calls him “Brady Tkachuk lite,” which is music to Senators fans' ears. Zonnon is super competitive, big, strong and dominant in front of the net. Like Tkachuk, he's not the prettiest skater, but he's always in the fight. If his feet arrive, he could be a strong addition at the NHL level.
Blake Fiddler, D, 6-foot-4, 209 pounds, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
Fiddler comes in the mould of a second-pairing, shutdown-type defenceman. Big, strong, always in the right place, blocks shots and is an excellent skater. His dad, Vernon Fiddler, played in the NHL. He likely won’t be much of a point producer at the next level but could be an ideal elite defensive stalwart for the Senators.
Malcolm Spence, LW, 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, Erie Otters (OHL)
If the Senators want a high upside player, Spence is that. He creates offence via his size, speed and skill. However, his motor has been questioned. The Senators have rarely bet on a player who doesn’t have an elite compete level, but his best shift arguably is better than any of the aforementioned players. He produced 32 goals and 73 points with Erie.

He also relays some Jason Bukala comments on Yakemchuk. The skating and defending areas to improve have been identified by many before. We have to hope Yakemchuk is given the time to develop further to have the time to improve these areas before making the jump full time.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Here's hoping, he was a bottom pair CHL guy this past year

I was told he might be the next Zdeno Chara, so we've got that going for us...which is nice.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Interesting that one management group gives up 12OA over their 2026 pick while another choses to keep 21OA over theirs. I don't think many Sens fans would express the same concerns if the Sens had 12OA vs 21OA. I guess the relative expectations have their teams going in opposite directions.