Yeah you can have your opinion and that’s about it, the fact is Boeser is a specialized Special Teams player that is decent at one thing and hasn’t gotten better since he joined the League and at this point it’s safe to say his upside is likely the present.
Let’s review;
Boeser Career 272PTs 345GMs 0.788PPG
Mantha Career 238PTs 381GMs 0.624PPG
Looks like Boeser is indeed the better player. Let’s look further.
Boeser Career 90PowerPlay PTs / 272 Total PTs (0.33) fully 1/3 of Boeser’s Career PTs are on the Man-advantage.
Mantha Career 47PowerPlay PTs / 238 Total PTs (0.19) 1/5 of Mantha’s Career PTs are on the Man-advantage.
Simply stated Mantha is a vastly superior player 5-on-5 compared to Boeser and it’s not particularly close. Historically, throughout his career Boeser has simply feasted on forced PP opportunities. It’s no coincidence VAN is considering moving on from Boeser, they have players that are better at the one thing he’s good at. Boeser has also played higher in the lineup throughout his career than Mantha equating to an extra 1:30 per game in TOI.
Boeser’s boxcars look better but the context proves he gets extremely favorable usage and makes the bare minimum out of it. Mantha gets harder assignments with worse linemates and does nearly as well. The salary offset is easily justifiable.
It’s arguable the Caps brought Mantha in precisely because he’s historically reasonably productive at ES and is not PP-dependent. The same can not be said for Boeser.
Oh and about that PP time. The Capitals have TJ Oshie and use him as the PP RW, that’s a spot I doubt they’d give to Boeser so they’d be trading for an asset they wouldn’t even be able to give the Cherry opportunities the Canucks have.
There are many arguments about why this trade doesn’t work for both teams, that Boeser is the better player is not one of them.
I actually think this is why the trade would make sense. Yes, Boeser is better on the powerplay and Mantha is better at even-strength. The Canucks sit at 28 percent on the powerplay this season but have a -8 goal differential at even-strength. The Capitals, without Backstrom for the foreseeable future, are at 21 percent on the powerplay. The Canucks can afford to lose a powerplay merchant, while the Capitals should be looking for ways to jumpstart the man advantage (especially considering Ovechkin's pursuit of Gretzky). Boeser could replace Johansson on PP1, who plays on the right side of the ice. Oshie plays at bumper and would not be replaced. I am not sure whether Boeser historically plays closer to the point or to the goal line on powerplays, but I think Strome is capable of manning either position so things could be moved around a bit.
Also, Mantha's physicality may be understated. He's produced .16 fewer points per game than Boeser so far in their careers but has averaged .55 more hits per game. The Canucks have 122 fewer hits as a team this year than the Capitals, who should also get Wilson back in the coming weeks. I mean it seems to me like the Canucks have an impressive, young nucleus (Kuzmenko, Hughes, Miller, Pettersson, and Horvat assuming he isn't traded as well) so maybe that's an aspect they're looking for to round out the club.