Post-Game Talk: Free Returns with Prime.

[K1984]

I get that, but how much offense is truly needed? honestly, a top 15 powerplay, and a return to normal for most guys (not 50 goals for Hyman but 30-35, and not 100 points, but 60ish for nuge), and this team is all of a sudden a contender again.

strength of schedule is not something that can be changed either way so it's not anything that can be worked on, it is what it is, and all the Oilers can do is beat teams they're supposed to beat, and tread water until the offense comes back, which it will.

The thing that I keep falling back on is that the team's purported major weakness (defence) hasn't been a major problem this year. Twice now we've drastically outplayed, and drastically out chanced good teams (Stars and Devils) and lost to both because we couldn't find a way to score a goal and our goalie couldn't stop a beach ball.

We are in a space where we are generally deserving to win most games. Other than the Columbus debacle, I think we've been more or less the better team in every game since the 0-3 start. Each one of the losses can be put squarely on lack of finish and horrendous goaltending. Other than the Columbus game, I don't know if team defence can be accurately described as poor in any of the other games.

Part of me wonders if it would make sense to acquire more of a middle of the road #4 D man, but look for the home run big deal in net or up front instead.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I get that, but how much offense is truly needed? honestly, a top 15 powerplay, and a return to normal for most guys (not 50 goals for Hyman but 30-35, and not 100 points, but 60ish for nuge), and this team is all of a sudden a contender again.

strength of schedule is not something that can be changed either way so it's not anything that can be worked on, it is what it is, and all the Oilers can do is beat teams they're supposed to beat, and tread water until the offense comes back, which it will.

Last year we allowed 2.85 GA and scored at 3.53 GF If our offense drops 30 goals that drops it down to 3.15 GF. Right now our defense is sitting at 3.13 GA. Which puts us pretty much even goal differential which rarely puts you in the playoffs. So with the big step back our d game and our goaltending has. ALSO having our offence lose that much offence is going to kill us.
This is a team that is built offense first at the expense of the defence.
Thats how its built, thats how they play. If the d doesn't drastically pick it up then we arent going to do much.
We are a contender we need to have better than a 20% win percentage against good teams.

Strength of schedule can't be changed either way but if you can't do well on your easier part of your schedule you need to overachieve in your tougher sections to stand a chance.

 

[tardigrade81]

Goalies need to make some saves on the PK, both of our guys are just bombing it on the PK.



That was a great final f*** you from Chiarelli to screw us with Koskinen. Don't think Detroit is making the playoffs this year though, that division is tough.

Agreed.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The thing that I keep falling back on is that the team's purported major weakness (defence) hasn't been a major problem this year. Twice now we've drastically outplayed, and drastically out chanced good teams (Stars and Devils) and lost to both because we couldn't find a way to score a goal and our goalie couldn't stop a beach ball.

We are in a space where we are generally deserving to win most games. Other than the Columbus debacle, I think we've been more or less the better team in every game since the 0-3 start. Each one of the losses can be put squarely on lack of finish and horrendous goaltending. Other than the Columbus game, I don't know if team defence can be accurately described as poor in any of the other games.

Part of me wonders if it would make sense to acquire more of a middle of the road #4 D man, but look for the home run big deal in net or up front instead.

xGF% wise, when tied this is the best team in the league.
When leading we are 11th, when trailing we are 9th.

Actual GA%?
Tied 22nd, leading 11th, trailing 32nd.

So what that tells me is this teams offensive ability and goaltending ability are almost linked. When we score or the goalie makes that big save early we are fine. When we don't have that lead or at least tied this team just keeps bleeding goals and not scoring.

Its confidence and it starts in net.

 

[Da McBomb]

Gotta say I've been a little disappointed with Henriques play so far this season. He was quite good last playoffs and I was quite happy when he re-signed. Need more from him.

 

[ujju2]

Henrique scored 24 goals mostly getting top 6 minutes and pp time with better linemates than he had this year. I think 15 goals is reasonable for him but not his linemates. I think his lack of offensive linemates will hurt his numbers.
It’s why I was so hopeful the team was going to put some high potential youth with him for a scoring line.
I was picturing a Holloway - Henrique - Savoie line for a bit before everything happened. Team doesn’t seem to what to go that path at all so I think Henriques numbers will suffer.

Agreed - as mentioned, I don't see him getting less than 10. I think 15 is a decent estimate. And I don't mind Brown as a linemate - I'd like a more offensive LW though. Kane's return will help.

Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner/Kane-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Kane/Skinner-Henrique-Brown

 

[nexttothemoon]

Something to keep in mind of course as well is that expected goals for/against isn't the whole picture... teams obviously NEED to score and keep pucks out of their net and winning Corsi battles isn't the same as putting up actual goals on the scoreboard (and keeping goals out of your net).

Last year in the 23/24 season in all situations these teams were all above 50% in expected GF%...

Pittsburgh... 5th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Minnesota... 10th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Ottawa... 11th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia... 13th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Calgary... 15th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.

Obviously at some point you have to turn those Corsi wins and xGF% wins into actual wins on the scoreboard or you'll drift along all season in mediocrity as many teams do.


This season... the Islanders are actually above the Oilers in xGF% in all situations... yet have even fewer points than the Oilers... and Buffalo and Nashville are both above 50% in xGF% as well... yet they have fewer pts than the Oilers as well.

Point is that the the scoreboard results don't always correlate with the corsi/xGF% results and regression to the mean in shooting/save percentages doesn't always work out in the long run.

 

[McDNicks17]

Something to keep in mind of course as well is that expected goals for/against isn't the whole picture... teams obviously NEED to score and keep pucks out of their net and winning Corsi battles isn't the same as putting up actual goals on the scoreboard (and keeping them out of your net).

Last year in the 23/24 season in all situations these teams were all above 50% in expected GF%...

Pittsburgh... 5th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Minnesota... 10th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Ottawa... 11th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia... 13th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Calgary... 15th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.

Obviously at some point you have to turn those Corsi wins and xGF% wins into actual wins on the scoreboard or you'll drift along all season in mediocrity as many teams do.


This season... the Islanders are actually above the Oilers in xGF% in all situations... yet have even fewer points than the Oilers... and Buffalo and Nashville are both above 50% in xGF% as well... yet they have fewer pts than the Oilers as well.

Point is that the the scoreboard results don't always correlate with the corsi/xGF% results and regression to the mean in shooting/save percentages doesn't always work out in the long run.

The thing with xGF% is it's calculated using the league average sh% on shots.

Often times the teams falling short of their xGF% aren't getting goaltending even close to the league average like in those examples that missed the playoffs.

 

[timekeep]

Not really surprised by this one. Was pretty much a scheduled loss. Hopefully it makes them more hungry against Vegas and Vancouver.

Our lack of finishing and special teams are very concerning though. I guess Gulie and Stuart just figured they could coast on the special teams based on last year. Time to figure it out.

No such thing as a scheduled loss. They haven't had any touch around the net this year and teams have no problem keeping them to the outside and letting have weak shots from far out.

We don't have speed, toughness, defensive dmen and a goalie. Maybe you're right they are all scheduled losses and wins are a bonus.

 

[brentashton]

Gotta say I've been a little disappointed with Henriques play so far this season. He was quite good last playoffs and I was quite happy when he re-signed. Need more from him.

And Nuge, and Stu Skinner, and Connor Brown, and Zach H, and Bouchard, and Gulutzan, Coffey and KK, and…

Some are starting to move the dial but it’s been a long lineup of underachievers this season, so far.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Something to keep in mind of course as well is that expected goals for/against isn't the whole picture... teams obviously NEED to score and keep pucks out of their net and winning Corsi battles isn't the same as putting up actual goals on the scoreboard (and keeping goals out of your net).

Last year in the 23/24 season in all situations these teams were all above 50% in expected GF%...

Pittsburgh... 5th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Minnesota... 10th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Ottawa... 11th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia... 13th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.
Calgary... 15th best in xGF%... missed the playoffs.

Obviously at some point you have to turn those Corsi wins and xGF% wins into actual wins on the scoreboard or you'll drift along all season in mediocrity as many teams do.


This season... the Islanders are actually above the Oilers in xGF% in all situations... yet have even fewer points than the Oilers... and Buffalo and Nashville are both above 50% in xGF% as well... yet they have fewer pts than the Oilers as well.

Point is that the the scoreboard results don't always correlate with the corsi/xGF% results and regression to the mean in shooting/save percentages doesn't always work out in the long run.

Looking at all strengths for sure.
But if you look at 5v5…
2 of the top 5 were in the cup final, 3 of the top 4 playoff teams were in the top 5.
None of the top 5 teams missed and 11/16 made the playoffs.

The part that xGF leaves out is scoring ability and goaltending. If you look at which of those 5 teams missed…Philly, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Jersey, Minnesota. They all had scoring issues or goaltending issues.
There are signs there of doing all the right things but missing scoring skill or goalies who can make a save.

Edit: Pitts only missed cause they fell apart at the end.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

The shooting percentage and save percentage are why our PK and PP are so bad.

Good news is that to some extent these percentages are driven by luck. Much more so than consistently outshooting/outchancing teams which is much more reflective of genuine team strength. The percentages will level out.

That’s not to say there aren’t still some problems to be concerned about. Brown and Janmark on our 3rd line is essentially a guaranteed neuter to the line for example.

But the relatively okay record is a testament to the fact that the Oilers are actually playing relatively good hockey.

Kane would be a godsend for that third line right now.

Skinner henrique Kane shits all over the current third line.