GDT: Free Agent Frenzy

[Detroit Knights]

Ok well I don't need you to prove me wrong and make me look dumb here buddy. I'm just trying to give some ideas of how we could work it out

I'm going to go cry in my room now rhanks

COME ON MAN we were all behind you with the optimism and rah rah but then you go ahead and royally fu** up in this way?

dude...i think we were all behind you and now we have to cowardly move aside? to say that I'm distraught would be a complete understatement.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

In 2 years? If Mo is a legit #1 and Ray is scoring 80 points? Mo would be looking at 10+ easily. Ray could ask for close to Marner money because it'll be a smaller percentage of the cap at that point.

Ok. And we'll have that cap space available then. It's entirely possible that Claude Lemieux might be looking at it and saying "we get Mo 2x6.5 this year and when the cap is 95M or more in two years we get 8x10.5 as opposed to 8 now.

The "penalty" for not extending them early is not as damning as you're thinking and the benefit of signing them earlier to long term isn't as much as you think.

We're not talking about getting Roman Josi on a 6yr, 24M deal now.

 

[Euro Twins]

COME ON MAN we were all behind you with the optimism and rah rah but then you go ahead and royally fu** up in this way?

dude...i think we were all behind you and now we have to cowardly move aside? to say that I'm distraught would be a complete understatement.

Hey man sometimes I'm wrong. I'm still optimistic that we will get stammer tomorrow. Unless he prices himself way out but I think if anyone knows how to coax Stamkos it's Yzerman.

 

[Detroit Knights]

We’re getting Kane back on an ideal term and we’re somehow dooming on Mo and Raymond for some reason? Why? (I mean.. I know why).

Welcome to HFBoards.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

No team is giving Moritz Seider a 9M-11M offersheet. That's simply not happening. Not when you have Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Quinn Hughes making 9, 9.5, and 7.875.

Offer sheets don't happen at that level of cash willy-nilly. Mo is great, but honestly, Fox and Makar are producing 60-100% more than he is offensively while also being great defensively.

Y'all are having some weird worries about this FA Frenzy.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Kane is a great start...now let's keep it going....
Stamkos
A dman
A goalie

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

In the context where 6x2 was floated I think there’s a legit fear a team like Seattle offer him 11x7 and either Detroit matches and pay way more than they would have or they lose Mo for what amounts to nothing.

As I said... No.. There is no legitimate fear of that. RFA deals go by comps. No team, I don't care how desperate, is going to offer a 22%+ premium on a guy versus comps at that level. Makar is making 9 on an RFA heavy deal. There is not a prayer on this earth that someone is offering 22% more than that to Moritz Seider for a similar deal.

 

[Shaman464]

Ok. And we'll have that cap space available then. It's entirely possible that Claude Lemieux might be looking at it and saying "we get Mo 2x6.5 this year and when the cap is 95M or more in two years we get 8x10.5 as opposed to 8 now.

The "penalty" for not extending them early is not as damning as you're thinking and the benefit of signing them earlier to long term isn't as much as you think.

We're not talking about getting Roman Josi on a 6yr, 24M deal now.

No agent is going to accept that deal. Mo isn't going to leave 4 million dollars on the table over the next 2 years for a gentleman's agreement for a contract two years down the road. A lot can happen in two years. Yzerman could decide to retire. Mo could get injured. Another pandemic happens and the cap stays flat. He might not progress anymore and he's as good as he could ever be.

And 2x6.5 would easily invite offer sheets from other teams. You mention there are a lot of defensemen making less than 11 million, that's great and all, but Detroit would have to match an offer sheet under 11.4 million or else lose their only good defenseman and have their playoff window closed. They open themselves up to being handcuffed or getting one of their franchise players getting taken.

 

[Holden Caufield]

Still interested in Duhaime if we can snag him on the cheap. He is a proper 4th liner and penalty killer.

 

[Shaman464]

As I said... No.. There is no legitimate fear of that. RFA deals go by comps. No team, I don't care how desperate, is going to offer a 22%+ premium on a guy versus comps at that level. Makar is making 9 on an RFA heavy deal. There is not a prayer on this earth that someone is offering 22% more than that to Moritz Seider for a similar deal.

The NHL cap was nearly 10% lower when Makar signed and there was a question on how long it was going to stay flat because of the pandemic. If the cap was at 88 million when he signed he would have gotten a substantial amount more. Teams wouldn't be sending an 11 million dollar offer sheet hoping Detroit won't match, they're sending it knowing that they can't not match it.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Keep in mind on offer sheets that it is always averaged over five years. They can offer him something, but it would realistically come with 4 1st overall picks which we would match, take somebody to Arbitration for the purposes of buyout. We can stay under 10% over at this point.

I think what Yzerman's plans are indicating is he is going to move forward and potentially wind up bridging them. If he couldn't find the right long-term deal, this was sort of the option of team building he needed to do.

If they pull off Stamkos we have a pretty legitimate top 6.

 

[Shaman464]

Keep in mind on offer sheets that it is always averaged over five yeards. They can offer him something, but it would realistically come with 4 1st overall picks which we would match, take somebody to Arbitration for the purposes of buyout. We can stay under 10% over at this point.

I think what Yzerman's plans are indicating is he is going to move forward and potentially wind up bridging them. If he couldn't find the right long-term deal, this was sort of the option of team building he needed to do.

If they pull of Stamkos we have a pretty legitimate top 6.

Teams can offer him 11.4 and still only have to send 2 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 3rd. They can offer him 9 million and only part with 1 1st, 1 2nd and 1 3rd. A 2x6.5 is a fantasy both because Mo would never sign it and because there are a lot of teams that would offer him more and not have to part with a ton of draft capital to do it.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Teams can offer him 11.4 and still only have to send 2 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 3rd. They can offer him 9 million and only part with 1 1st, 1 2nd and 1 3rd. A 2x6.5 is a fantasy both because Mo would never sign it and because there are a lot of teams that would offer him more and not have to part with a ton of draft capital to do it.

If they offer him a 5 year contract at that yes. If they offer it at that AVV for 7 years which is what it would take for him to sign it, the total value will only be applied to 5 years and would result in 4 1st round picks.

It really doesn't matter the Wings would match it. We also know how often this happens...

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I'm just saying, you're freaking out about ghosts that simply aren't there. Mo is great. He's not give up multiple picks, blow out your cap structure for a decade great... at least not yet.

10M is a huge psychological barrier when it comes to contracts.

Plus. Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Teams can offer him 11.4 and still only have to send 2 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 3rd. They can offer him 9 million and only part with 1 1st, 1 2nd and 1 3rd. A 2x6.5 is a fantasy both because Mo would never sign it and because there are a lot of teams that would offer him more and not have to part with a ton of draft capital to do it.

Not if they're offering 7 years. That would be for a 5 year deal. And no team is going to give Mortiz Seider an 11.4m contract when guys producing at literally twice his clip are making 7.875 or 9M.

Again, you're freaking out about some thing with a 0.000001% chance of happening. Never mind the fact that Seider (or Raymond) would have to sign said offer sheet and it's far more likely that they're excited about being on the verge of the playoffs with the team that drafted them and less thrilled about going to a bottom feeder.

 

[Shaman464]

I'm just saying, you're freaking out about ghosts that simply aren't there. Mo is great. He's not give up multiple picks, blow out your cap structure for a decade great... at least not yet.

10M is a huge psychological barrier when it comes to contracts.

Plus. Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps



Not if they're offering 7 years. That would be for a 5 year deal. And no team is going to give Mortiz Seider an 11.4m contract when guys producing at literally twice his clip are making 7.875 or 9M.

Again, you're freaking out about some thing with a 0.000001% chance of happening. Never mind the fact that Seider (or Raymond) would have to sign said offer sheet and it's far more likely that they're excited about being on the verge of the playoffs with the team that drafted them and less thrilled about going to a bottom feeder.

Again, Detroit would have to match it. There is no universe that they wouldn't and there is no universe where Stevie even tries to chance an offer sheet or burning a bridge with his best young player by not paying him what he's due. They're going to want to lock Mo up till he's 31 and do it relatively cheap.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Again, Detroit would have to match it. There is no universe that they wouldn't and there is no universe where Stevie even tries to chance an offer sheet or burning a bridge with his best young player by not paying him what he's due.

He's not due 11M. That's what you're not getting. He's not due that yet and it's why no other team in the league will give him that. He's a 50 point two-way D. Super duper valuable. He's very important to Detroit. He's not Adam Fox or Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar who can completely remake your blueline by themselves.

Detroit wouldn't HAVE to match shit. Some team isn't gonna waltz in with an 11M offersheet swinging between their dicks for Mo. If they try, it'll be something like 5x9. which is a million more than the Wings would like, but then you have flexibility. Like when Sebastian Aho was offersheeted by Montreal... they could have gone hard and offered 10+ and probably gotten him. But they tried signing him to a deal that remotely made sense to his comparables. Mo making 11M on his next deal is simply not going to happen.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Again, Detroit would have to match it. There is no universe that they wouldn't and there is no universe where Stevie even tries to chance an offer sheet or burning a bridge with his best young player by not paying him what he's due. They're going to want to lock Mo up till he's 31 and do it relatively cheap.

The teams that are currently able (have the draft picks on hand today) fpr the various ranges are the ones not greyed out.

Buffalo I believe is the only one with both picks and cap space to offer sheet Mo or Ray.

 

[Shaman464]

He's not due 11M. That's what you're not getting. He's not due that yet and it's why no other team in the league will give him that. He's a 50 point two-way D. Super duper valuable. He's very important to Detroit. He's not Adam Fox or Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar who can completely remake your blueline by themselves.

Detroit wouldn't HAVE to match shit. Some team isn't gonna waltz in with an 11M offersheet swinging between their dicks for Mo. If they try, it'll be something like 5x9. which is a million more than the Wings would like, but then you have flexibility. Like when Sebastian Aho was offersheeted by Montreal... they could have gone hard and offered 10+ and probably gotten him. But they tried signing him to a deal that remotely made sense to his comparables. Mo making 11M on his next deal is simply not going to happen.

I never said he was due 11m. I am saying that underpaying and giving him no term risks a team coming in and offer sheeting him. I don't think a team would actually offer him 11.4/5 years, but they could without it returning Detroit the trade value Mo is worth. I agree with you, realistically if Detroit were to offer Mo 2x6.5 that an offer sheet of 9.1x5 would be realistic, but it's still bad because Detroit is paying more money for less years than they could get by giving him a fair deal instead. But again, we are discussing things that won't happen because there are a lot of reasons Stevie wouldn't try to pull that.

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The teams that are currently able (have the draft picks on hand today) fpr the various ranges are the ones not greyed out.

Buffalo I believe is the only one with both picks and cap space to offer sheet Mo or Ray.

Nashville and Seattle could too, they both have 15 roster players and 20+ million in cap space.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Again, Detroit would have to match it. There is no universe that they wouldn't and there is no universe where Stevie even tries to chance an offer sheet or burning a bridge with his best young player by not paying him what he's due. They're going to want to lock Mo up till he's 31 and do it relatively cheap.

You are right, but Mo would actually have to sign the offer sheet before Yzerman has to match it. You are assuming Mo has no loyalty, that he would automatically sign it, or anyone would even be sending this offer sheet in the first place.

Mo just might not want all that so that he can stay in detroit. He might get that offer sheet, show yzerman and say hey, now you have a clock because I could sign this now and force your hand, or you can come up wherever you are to a little more and be done with it.

 

[Run the Jewels]

People shouldn’t ignore the value a Michael Rasmussen holds. His contract is great as he enters his prime and big Cs with some skill don’t grow on trees. My issue would be, he’s taken steps every year and he’s entering his 25 year old year. Right when big Cs start producing for 5-7 years. They’ve invested so much into him, it would stink to see it all happen somewhere else. Especially on that contract.

People are still extremely high on him despite the garbage you hear on fan sites. At worst we know he’s a legit 3C for his prime years. His hands are really soft though, and that’s what intrigues people, because the game has finally slowed down for him. That’s exactly when you start seeing the numbers start increasing.

I highly respect you so this question comes from that place: do you really view Rasmussen as a center? To me he's seems like a winger.

 

[Shaman464]

You are right, but Mo would actually have to sign the offer sheet before Yzerman has to match it.

Mo just might not want all that so that he can stay in detroit.

What you said makes no sense. If Yzerman has to match it, and Mo knows it better than any of us, he could sign it knowing he'd stay in Detroit.

 

[Detroit Knights]

I highly respect you so this question comes from that place: do you really view Rasmussen as a center? To me he's seems like a winger.

his center play got much better midway through this past season.

I always viewed him as a good winger because once he started playing center, it felt like he had to think too much and miss something that was extremely terrible to miss. He did get better towards the end there.

 

[Shaman464]

I highly respect you so this question comes from that place: do you really view Rasmussen as a center? To me he's seems like a winger.

Ras is a winger. He's a simple man with a simple game. No reason to complicate it. He was an okay center this year, but he always looks more comfortable on the wing.

 

[ricky0034]

the real question is what if someone signs Veleno to a $15 million offer sheet and the entire Wings front office drops dead out of pure shock and then someone signs Seider and Raymond to $4 million offer sheets but there's nobody around to match them because the entire Wings front office died from the shock of the Veleno offer sheet

 

[Detroit Knights]

What you said makes no sense. If Yzerman has to match it, and Mo knows it better than any of us, he could sign it knowing he'd stay in Detroit.

i edited my post and tried to make it more clear before you sent this.

Just because you get an offer sheet doesn't mean the player has to sign it. In fact, if you are an actual negotiator, then you'd take the offer sheet and show it to Yzerman as a negotiation tactic. The offer sheet could be from Seattle and it could turn out Seider hates Starbucks so he wouldn't sign it in the first place.

You are coming from an angle that you believe any offer sheet would be signed if it was a ridiculous number. Sometimes...just sometimes...people don't always go for the money to go play in a place like seattle or wherever has a lot of cap space.

the real question is what if someone signs Veleno to a $15 million offer sheet and the entire Wings front office drops dead out of pure shock and then someone signs Seider and Raymond to $4 million offer sheets but there's nobody around to match them because the entire Wings front office died from the shock of the Veleno offer sheet

it'll be fine, I'm the designated survivor for the red wings front office.

I will definitely make sure that veleno offer sheet get's signed.