GDT: Free agency part III-toed sloth slow

[Discipline Daddy]

I also think we're a contender, obviously. It's crazy that the rest of the league thinks so. It feels like I just woke up one morning in 2014 after another shitty defensive performance lead to a loss, and all of the sudden our defense is great, we won the Jennings, have made the playoffs in 3 consecutive seasons, and most fans put us in the top 3 choices to win the cup. It's insane. Pinch me.

We're absolutely built to go the distance. Our biggest weakness right now looks to be a ? at 2nd line C, but at least we have 3 contenders for the position (Kotkaniemi, Stastny, and Necas in that order). Drury technically as well. We also have ?s on the third pair, but we have several options.

Our goalies are excellent, our forwards are excellent, and our top 4 looks pretty damn good as we stand today.

Our worst contracts are either on LTIR (Gardner), or one year of Jordan Staal or 2 years of Jordan Martinook. We have all our draft picks and one extra 2nd in 2024. We have a top 10 prospect pool, and we have the second coming of Scott Morrow in Scott Morrow. And we also have a coach who players go through the wall for.

Lastly, it's crazy that our only contracts that are still going past 23-24 are Slavin and Burns (for one year), Svechnikov, and Kotkaniemi. For better or worse, we have more flexibility than any team in the league right now.

 

[HisIceness]

All things considered it's pretty incredible to be a young-ish contender and still have a strong prospect pool. In theory this should keep our team competitive for years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't think KK's skating is overblown. He's a very awkward skater without much quickness and not great speed or balance. With his lanky frame leads to him being knocked down/off the puck often. I don't think that's really a controversial statement. When he's stationary down low and can spread skates out to get stability, he's hard to knock down and move out, but as a skater, he's subpar.

When it comes to today's NHL, particularly on a team like Carolina that focuses on speed, that's a concern.

It's not to say he can't and won't get better, but saying it's overblown seems to kind dismiss it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

All things considered it's pretty incredible to be a young-ish contender and still have a strong prospect pool. In theory this should keep our team competitive for years.

I'd feel better if we start seeing some of these prospect starting to make an impact. So far, since the new regime took over, it's been basically Jarvis. Even though Drury was selected by the new regime, they said that Francis and his team had done all the legwork for the 2016 draft when they first demoted him (it was stated as a reason they were keeping him around).

Based on what I've seen/read, I have high hopes for Morrow and Seeley. I'm still not sold on Kochetkov. Not sure how many impact forwards we have coming up though, but part of it is because I don't follow them closely.

 

[57special]

Jonas Brodin is probably a good comp and he got $6M / year for 7 years in 2020. He may not get it, but I don't think Pesce asking for $7M+ is out of the question 4 years later with the cap rising, even if he'll be a couple years older at the time of his contract vs. Brodin's. Lindell is another comp and he got $5.8 in 2019. Josh Morrissey at $6.25 signed in 2019 is another. Tyler Myers got $6M in 2019. etc..

With the cap rising and Pesce signing his deal 4-5 years later than these guys, $7M+ doesn't seem too out of line to me.

Pesce has been highly coveted by teams for the past 3-4 years. Part of that is that his contract is attractive, but the biggest piece is that he's a very reliable top 4 RHD that teams covet.

Full disclosure- am a huge Brodin fan, though also a part time CAR fan who really likes Pesce's game. It's interesting that they both had identical 6/24 contracts previously.

I think you are right on the money about Pesce's value, though who knows where we might be in 1/2 years, when Pesce's contract is likely to be negotiated?

I look at things like this;

Player value to team, and in general - slight advantage Brodin

Age when new contract starts - Brodin 27YO, Pesce 30 yo Big advantage Brodin

Time when new contract starts(rising salary cap, covid) - 2021 , 2024 Big advantage Pesce

RHD vs. LHD - advantage Pesce

So, it's kind of a saw off between Brodin and Pesce in terms of value, considering all factors. Assuming that Pesce continues to be as effective in 23-24(last year of his present contract)as he is now, then something like a 6 x 6M contract might be the sweet spot for both him and the team. Of course this all goes out the window if Pesce is a key cog in helping CAR win a Cup, which is not all that far fetched.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Full disclosure- am a huge Brodin fan, though also a part time CAR fan who really likes Pesce's game. It's interesting that they both had identical 6/24 contracts previously.

I think you are right on the money about Pesce's value, though who knows where we might be in 1/2 years, when Pesce's contract is likely to be negotiated?

I look at things like this;

Player value to team, and in general - slight advantage Brodin

Age when new contract starts - Brodin 27YO, Pesce 30 yo Big advantage Brodin

Time when new contract starts(rising salary cap, covid) - 2021 , 2024 Big advantage Pesce

RHD vs. LHD - advantage Pesce

So, it's kind of a saw off between Brodin and Pesce in terms of value, considering all factors. Assuming that Pesce continues to be as effective in 23-24(last year of his present contract)as he is now, then something like a 6 x 6M contract might be the sweet spot for both him and the team. Of course this all goes out the window if Pesce is a key cog in helping CAR win a Cup, which is not all that far fetched.

That's all fair. I actually think Brodin is a little better than Pesce.

To be clear, I don't think Carolina will pay him $7M+, but I just won't be surprised if he asks for it and some other team (should he go UFA) gives it to him.

 

[HisIceness]

I'd feel better if we start seeing some of these prospect starting to make an impact. So far, since the new regime took over, it's been basically Jarvis. Even though Drury was selected by the new regime, they said that Francis and his team had done all the legwork for the 2016 draft when they first demoted him (it was stated as a reason they were keeping him around).

Based on what I've seen/read, I have high hopes for Morrow and Seeley. I'm still not sold on Kochetkov. Not sure how many impact forwards we have coming up though, but part of it is because I don't follow them closely.

That's fair. We'll definitely know if they do soon enough.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I think pundits and other fanbases have overrated this offseason, tbh. I'm optimistic because the teams on the level this team is trying to get to (the Tampa/Colorado tier) have lost pieces rather than the team taking a step forward on paper. The cheap prices paid for big (older) names are fun, but that isn't necessarily meaningful for winning the cup in 2023.

2 questions still persist:

- Are the best players good enough to produce in crunchtime? Sebastian Aho and Andrew Svechnikov are still the foundation up front going into next season.

- Is there a mix of personnel that can make the PP work when it matters? Neither Burns nor Pacioretty nor Stastny answer that question definitively.

If the team as currently constructed struggles to score in a playoff series against elite defensive competition again, it wouldn't exactly be a surprise.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I think pundits and other fanbases have overrated this offseason, tbh. I'm optimistic because the teams on the level this team is trying to get to (the Tampa/Colorado tier) have lost pieces rather than the team taking a step forward on paper. The cheap prices paid for big (older) names are fun, but that isn't necessarily meaningful for winning the cup in 2023.

2 questions still persist:

- Are the best players good enough to produce in crunchtime? Sebastian Aho and Andrew Svechnikov are still the foundation up front going into next season.

- Is there a mix of personnel that can make the PP work when it matters? Neither Burns nor Pacioretty nor Stastny answer that question definitively.

If the team as currently constructed struggles to score in a playoff series against elite defensive competition again, it wouldn't exactly be a surprise.

I like our offseason a lot, mainly because, if nothing else, it proves that veterans who have not won hardware before want to play for us. That's a huge development in favor of our group that used to be reserved for the Tampas and Colorados during the past couple of seasons.

 

[57special]

That's all fair. I actually think Brodin is a little better than Pesce.

To be clear, I don't think Carolina will pay him $7M+, but I just won't be surprised if he asks for it and some other team (should he go UFA) gives it to him.

Oh, he can (probably) get 7M, but due to his age at time of signing will only get it for a shorter term. Lindholm's recent contract is also a comparison point.

On a completely different topic, was just comparing MN's roster to CAR's. I found them to be surprisingly equal....was surprised to see that MN's forwards might actually be a stronger group than CAR's though if you put a healthy Pacioretty in there things swing the other way. D seems to be more or less of a wash.

Goalie and coaching(hard to quantify, but still an issue, I think) is where CAR has the advantage. Also, CAR has an easier division to fight their way out of.

 

[57special]

I think pundits and other fanbases have overrated this offseason, tbh. I'm optimistic because the teams on the level this team is trying to get to (the Tampa/Colorado tier) have lost pieces rather than the team taking a step forward on paper. The cheap prices paid for big (older) names are fun, but that isn't necessarily meaningful for winning the cup in 2023.

2 questions still persist:

- Are the best players good enough to produce in crunchtime? Sebastian Aho and Andrew Svechnikov are still the foundation up front going into next season.

- Is there a mix of personnel that can make the PP work when it matters? Neither Burns nor Pacioretty nor Stastny answer that question definitively.

If the team as currently constructed struggles to score in a playoff series against elite defensive competition again, it wouldn't exactly be a surprise.

Isn't that always a problem in the playoffs, unless you have freakish offensive players like McDavid and Makar? Look at how Toronto's offense dries up, or at least becomes inconsistent, once they play quality teams in the playoffs. Often it's the secondary players who have to step up... on your team, maybe a Necas, or Skjei. Can't overlook goalies, either. Can Ward, J S Giguere, Tim Thomas, Mike Vernon, and Bill Ranford all won Conn Smythes.

BTW, Burns can be a problem defensively, but he is huge, nasty when he wants, and can be elite offensively from the point. Some similarities to Hamilton in that regard. Don't know how much is left in the tank, though.

 

[DaveG]

Oh, he can (probably) get 7M, but due to his age at time of signing will only get it for a shorter term. Lindholm's recent contract is also a comparison point.

On a completely different topic, was just comparing MN's roster to CAR's. I found them to be surprisingly equal....was surprised to see that MN's forwards might actually be a stronger group than CAR's though if you put a healthy Pacioretty in there things swing the other way. D seems to be more or less of a wash.

Goalie and coaching(hard to quantify, but still an issue, I think) is where CAR has the advantage. Also, CAR has an easier division to fight their way out of.

The one position the Canes have the biggest advantage is probably down the middle, which is an absolutely huge area. I think Rossi has it in him to be a big time difference maker for you guys, just a matter of when and if this season could be too soon to expect that.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Isn't that always a problem in the playoffs, unless you have freakish offensive players like McDavid and Makar? Look at how Toronto's offense dries up, or at least becomes inconsistent, once they play quality teams in the playoffs. Often it's the secondary players who have to step up... on your team, maybe a Necas, or Skjei. Can't overlook goalies, either. Can Ward, J S Giguere, Tim Thomas, Mike Vernon, and Bill Ranford all won Conn Smythes.

BTW, Burns can be a problem defensively, but he is huge, nasty when he wants, and can be elite offensively from the point. Some similarities to Hamilton in that regard. Don't know how much is left in the tank, though.

I'm not questioning Aho's playoff performance. It's if he meets expectations, is that good enough?

We all love to look for correlation among cup winners. More often than not, the team that wins 16 games has an upper echelon scorer, using the regular season as a proxy:

Year	Cup Winner	Top Scorer (50% GP Minimum)	P/GP Rank
05-06	Carolina	Staal	10
06-07	Anaheim	Selanne	14
07-08	Detroit	Zetterberg	5
08-09	Pittsburgh	Malkin	2
09-10	Chicago	Kane	14
10-11	Boston	Krejci	47
11-12	L.A.	Kopitar	24
12-13	Chicago	Kane	3
13-14	L.A.	Kopitar	29
14-15	Chicago	Kane	4
15-16	Pittsburgh	Crosby	4
16-17	Pittsburgh	Crosby	2
17-18	Washington	Ovechkin	15
18-19	St. Louis	O'Reilly	43
19-20	Tampa	Kucherov	8
20-21	Tampa	Stamkos	33
21-22	Colorado	MacKinnon	7

Aho (39) was O'Reilly level in 21-22.

I think the FO is not completely comfortable with the answer to that question. The rumored interest in Laine, Eichel and Tkachuk points to a organization that would like to add some high end skill if it can.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Is there a stat for shin pads hit/60? if so, Skjei has to lead the league by a fair margin.

I believe this record will be held by Bryan Rodney for all time...belongs in feats never to be matched/repeated

 

[Derailed75]

I don't think KK's skating is overblown. He's a very awkward skater without much quickness and not great speed or balance. With his lanky frame leads to him being knocked down/off the puck often. I don't think that's really a controversial statement. When he's stationary down low and can spread skates out to get stability, he's hard to knock down and move out, but as a skater, he's subpar.

When it comes to today's NHL, particularly on a team like Carolina that focuses on speed, that's a concern.

It's not to say he can't and won't get better, but saying it's overblown seems to kind dismiss it.

It is overblown becasue the way Habs fans framed it you would think he looked like Bambi on ice. He is subpar no question but he can skate at a NHL level, just near the bottom level.

 

[Stickpucker]

I'm not questioning Aho's playoff performance. It's if he meets expectations, is that good enough?

We all love to look for correlation among cup winners. More often than not, the team that wins 16 games has an upper echelon scorer, using the regular season as a proxy:

Year	Cup Winner	Top Scorer (50% GP Minimum)	P/GP Rank
05-06	Carolina	Staal	10
06-07	Anaheim	Selanne	14
07-08	Detroit	Zetterberg	5
08-09	Pittsburgh	Malkin	2
09-10	Chicago	Kane	14
10-11	Boston	Krejci	47
11-12	L.A.	Kopitar	24
12-13	Chicago	Kane	3
13-14	L.A.	Kopitar	29
14-15	Chicago	Kane	4
15-16	Pittsburgh	Crosby	4
16-17	Pittsburgh	Crosby	2
17-18	Washington	Ovechkin	15
18-19	St. Louis	O'Reilly	43
19-20	Tampa	Kucherov	8
20-21	Tampa	Stamkos	33
21-22	Colorado	MacKinnon	7

Aho (39) was O'Reilly level in 21-22.

I think the FO is not completely comfortable with the answer to that question. The rumored interest in Laine, Eichel and Tkachuk points to a organization that would like to add some high end skill if it can.

Where did Miller rank last season?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It is overblown becasue the way Habs fans framed it you would think he looked like Bambi on ice. He is subpar no question but he can skate at a NHL level, just near the bottom level.

Meh, the first couple of years, he was basically Bambi on ice. He's gotten bigger and stronger since then, but still is subpar. It's no different than how we exaggerate the characteristics of our players (Faulk, Skinner, Hanifin, Jordan Staal, Necas, etc...).

I don't see it as a big deal, but it seems some like to get worked up about everything Habs fans say, which is fine. To each their own.

 

[Chrispy]

Where did Miller rank last season?

And how do AAAA stats translate to the NHL?

 

[57special]

The one position the Canes have the biggest advantage is probably down the middle, which is an absolutely huge area. I think Rossi has it in him to be a big time difference maker for you guys, just a matter of when and if this season could be too soon to expect that.

We'll see with Rossi. He's got top 6 level puck skill, smarts, vision, shot, passing. His speed and strength are an issue... even in the AHL he got bullied quite a bit, and his speed is only average. Reminds me of Granlund, albeit a better shooting Granlund.

I can see you guys winning the East. Beating CO will be another story... the thing that will do them in is having to finally pay Mackinnon after this season, and their lack of goaltending. As impressive as their D seems offensively, they are vulnerable to a fast, heavy forecheck, as Vegas proved back when they were healthy. It's hard to be brilliant when your face is pressed against the glass behind your own red line.

 

[spockBokk]

Murray was a guy I thought the Canes might poke around for depth. He was cheap enough. I suppose there will be some clarity on Gardiner soon and that will likely determine whether or not they bring in a vet LD.

I bet there will be a rash of scrap-heap signings/PTOs right after Labor Day:

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Oh, he can (probably) get 7M, but due to his age at time of signing will only get it for a shorter term. Lindholm's recent contract is also a comparison point.

On a completely different topic, was just comparing MN's roster to CAR's. I found them to be surprisingly equal....was surprised to see that MN's forwards might actually be a stronger group than CAR's though if you put a healthy Pacioretty in there things swing the other way. D seems to be more or less of a wash.

Goalie and coaching(hard to quantify, but still an issue, I think) is where CAR has the advantage. Also, CAR has an easier division to fight their way out of.

Kinda? Last year, the top 4 teams in each division were pretty comparable (see below). The bottom two teams in each division were very comparable. The 5th and 6the team gives a slight edge to the Central. That could change if the Islanders don't start off horribly again and Gaudreau helps CLB improve.

COL: 119
MIN: 113
STL: 109
DAL: 98
NSH: 97
WPG: 89
CHI: 68
AZ: 57

CAR: 116
NYR: 110
PIT: 103
WSH: 100
NYI: 84 (but started off terribly)
CLB: 81 (will be much better with Gaudreau)
NJ: 63
PHI: 61

 

[57special]

Kinda? Last year, the top 4 teams in each division were pretty comparable (see below). The bottom two teams in each division were very comparable. The 5th and 6the team gives a slight edge to the Central. That could change if the Islanders don't start off horribly again and Gaudreau helps CLB improve.

COL: 119
MIN: 113
STL: 109
DAL: 98
NSH: 97
WPG: 89
CHI: 68
AZ: 57

CAR: 116
NYR: 110
PIT: 103
WSH: 100
NYI: 84 (but started off terribly)
CLB: 81 (will be much better with Gaudreau)
NJ: 63
PHI: 61

I'm not talking overall, I'm talking about the playoffs. Who would you rather play, CO or NYR? STL, or a badly aging PIT/WAS?

In this scenario, you are the CO equivalent, so you don't have to play the elite team in your division, because that's you.

Also think that TBL are getting older, not better, and that FLA is anything but sure thing next season, even though I LOVED their regular season play last year. Bos is running on fumes. The perpetually choking Leafs (something MN fans know something about) always seem dangerous, but always disappoint.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not talking overall, I'm talking about the playoffs. Who would you rather play, CO or NYR? STL, or a badly aging PIT/WAS?

In this scenario, you are the CO equivalent, so you don't have to play the elite team in your division, because that's you.

Also think that TBL are getting older, not better, and that FLA is anything but sure thing next season, even though I LOVED their regular season play last year. Bos is running on fumes. The perpetually choking Leafs (something MN fans know something about) always seem dangerous, but always disappoint.

Other than Col (defending champs) and STL, there's nobody in the west that I would be worried about. Not Calgary, EDM, DAL, LA, VGN or NSH.

Of course COL is the defending champs, but TBL have been in the last 3 SCF's and were limping into this one. They are still "elite" when it comes to the playoffs. I won't count on them declining because of "getting older" until I see their play dropping off. Same goes for PIT, WSH and BOS. Those teams may be older, but they have the stars and experience to keep winning. People have expected them to fall off dramatically the past few years and yet they haven't. Until Crosby, Malkin, Letting, Ovechkin, Kuznetzov, Carlson, and Bergeron retire, those teams will be difficult outs.

Also, Rangers and TBL have the two best goalies in the world, which is always a problem in the playoffs. FLA and TOR certainly have to get over the "playoff" hump, but both teams have a lot of elite talent.

Anyhow, I disagree that the path in the west is harder, but won't go to the mat on it as it's a bit speculative for sure. In fairness, until we see how these teams perform this upcoming season, it's just speculation.

 

[57special]

Other than Col (defending champs) and STL, there's nobody in the west that I would be worried about. Not Calgary, EDM, DAL, LA, VGN or NSH.

Of course COL is the defending champs, but TBL have been in the last 3 SCF's and were limping into this one. They are still "elite" when it comes to the playoffs. I won't count on them declining because of "getting older" until I see their play dropping off. Same goes for PIT, WSH and BOS. Those teams may be older, but they have the stars and experience to keep winning. People have expected them to fall off dramatically the past few years and yet they haven't. Until Crosby, Malkin, Letting, Ovechkin, Kuznetzov, Carlson, and Bergeron retire, those teams will be difficult outs.

Also, Rangers and TBL have the two best goalies in the world, which is always a problem in the playoffs. FLA and TOR certainly have to get over the "playoff" hump, but both teams have a lot of elite talent.

Anyhow, I disagree that the path in the west is harder, but won't go to the mat on it as it's a bit speculative for sure. In fairness, until we see how these teams perform this upcoming season, it's just speculation.

The West, for sure. Central is a bugger, though.

 

[Tryamw]

Waiting till after the tournament this year.

You seem to be demanding patience...
Who do you think I am?? Job??