Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Greig likely gets 2.5M x 2Y, give or take a few hundred thousand. That seems to be the market for a young top 9 forward who isn't arbitration eligible.

Pinto got what he did after being our 2C for an extended period of time. There was also the threat of an offer sheet.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

JBD down.

We need RHD, preferably on an expiring contract, who won't cost much more than a 3rd round pick to acquire. I would guess we would have to look at a basement team who are okay with selling off a D because they aren't looking at playoffs.

Any ideas?

 

[Micklebot]

JBD down.

We need RHD, preferably on an expiring contract, who won't cost much more than a 3rd round pick to acquire. I would guess we would have to look at a basement team who are okay with selling off a D because they aren't looking at playoffs.

Any ideas?

we're about 5 years to late, but DeMelo seemed to fit that description to a tee in 2020...

 

[TheNewEra]

JBD down.

We need RHD, preferably on an expiring contract, who won't cost much more than a 3rd round pick to acquire. I would guess we would have to look at a basement team who are okay with selling off a D because they aren't looking at playoffs.

Any ideas?

rutta
zac jones
brannstrom
mayfield is one with term that would be risky but i think his value has gone down enough to get him for a 3rd

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

John Gibson (3 years, 6.4M AAV)
Brian Dumoulin (1 year, 3.15M AAV, UFA)
Dustin Tokarski (1 year 775k, UFA)

Cap In = 9.55M over 2 Roster Players
Cap Out = 10.7M over 2 Roster Players

*Side Move = Claim Kaliyev from LA Kings


Josh Norris (6 years, 7.95M)
Ty Smith (1 year, 775k)
Mads Sogaard (2 years, 775k, assigned to AHL)

Real Dollars In = 10.275M
Real Dollars Out = 9.4M


Anton Forsberg (1 year 2.75M UFA)
Box Of Unsold Finland Merch From WJC Tournament @ CTC

• The trade assumes that there is no real market for either Gibson or Norris, without cap considerations.
• We know that Carolina wants Forsberg. I assume Forsberg's value is future considerations or a late pick. Hence, Ty Smith, a fringe NHLer at this point, going to Anaheim.
• Hurricanes don't need Tokarski if they get Forsberg. Tokarski goes to Ottawa as an AHL move to cover the loss of AHL goalie depth from Sogaard going to Anaheim.
• People will say we shouldn't pay 6.4M for a second goalie, but we're not really paying 6.4M. That is subsidized by dumping Norris, who is overpaid with too much term. We clearly need a 1A/1B situation. Adding a veteran NHL goalie could also save our season. This season is very important given the timing of Tkachuk's NMC and our need to make the playoffs to show that this build isn't hopeless.

rutta
zac jones
brannstrom
mayfield is one with term that would be risky but i think his value has gone down enough to get him for a 3rd

Rutta is a good choice.

Brannstrom and Zac Jones would both be depth pieces. Fine, but they aren't going to come in and play 18-20 minutes for us. We need an established player who can play up and down the lineup, like a good version of what the coach uses Hamonic as.

Mayfield's contract is toxic. It only works if they take Norris. Even then, it's a tough sell. He also has a NTC.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

 

[Senator Stanley]

John Gibson (3 years, 6.4M AAV)
Brian Dumoulin (1 year, 3.15M AAV, UFA)
Dustin Tokarski (1 year 775k, UFA)

Cap In = 9.55M over 2 Roster Players
Cap Out = 10.7M over 2 Roster Players

*Side Move = Claim Kaliyev from LA Kings


Josh Norris (6 years, 7.95M)
Ty Smith (1 year, 775k)
Mads Sogaard (2 years, 775k, assigned to AHL)

Real Dollars In = 10.275M
Real Dollars Out = 9.4M


Anton Forsberg (1 year 2.75M UFA)
Box Of Unsold Finland Merch From WJC Tournament @ CTC

• The trade assumes that there is no real market for either Gibson or Norris, without cap considerations.
• We know that Carolina wants Forsberg. I assume Forsberg's value is future considerations or a late pick. Hence, Ty Smith, a fringe NHLer at this point, going to Anaheim.
• Hurricanes don't need Tokarski if they get Forsberg. Tokarski goes to Ottawa as an AHL move to cover the loss of AHL goalie depth from Sogaard going to Anaheim.
• People will say we shouldn't pay 6.4M for a second goalie, but we're not really paying 6.4M. That is subsidized by dumping Norris, who is overpaid with too much term. We clearly need a 1A/1B situation. Adding a veteran NHL goalie could also save our season. This season is very important given the timing of Tkachuk's NMC and our need to make the playoffs to show that this build isn't hopeless.

Rutta is a good choice.

Brannstrom and Zac Jones would both be depth pieces. Fine, but they aren't going to come in and play 18-20 minutes for us. We need an established player who can play up and down the lineup, like a good version of what the coach uses Hamonic as.

Mayfield's contract is toxic. It only works if they take Norris. Even then, it's a tough sell. He also has a NTC.

I don't agree with this underlying assumption that Norris has no market without retention/negative value coming back. Yes, he's expensive and yes there is injury risk, but he's a young and relatively proven top 6 centre.

And if I'm wrong about this, and the only way to to move him is in a shitty deal for the Sens, why trade him? Why take cents on the dollar? He's an important, contributing player on a team that's trying to be good now.

 

[HSF]

dont get me wrong i did not like the fact that we gave forsberg 3 years

that being said forsberg was a different goalie pre knee injury

his sample size was so small up to that point though. Hes even worse now. Should have found a replacement after the last injury

John Gibson (3 years, 6.4M AAV)
Brian Dumoulin (1 year, 3.15M AAV, UFA)
Dustin Tokarski (1 year 775k, UFA)

Cap In = 9.55M over 2 Roster Players
Cap Out = 10.7M over 2 Roster Players

*Side Move = Claim Kaliyev from LA Kings


Josh Norris (6 years, 7.95M)
Ty Smith (1 year, 775k)
Mads Sogaard (2 years, 775k, assigned to AHL)

Real Dollars In = 10.275M
Real Dollars Out = 9.4M


Anton Forsberg (1 year 2.75M UFA)
Box Of Unsold Finland Merch From WJC Tournament @ CTC

• The trade assumes that there is no real market for either Gibson or Norris, without cap considerations.
• We know that Carolina wants Forsberg. I assume Forsberg's value is future considerations or a late pick. Hence, Ty Smith, a fringe NHLer at this point, going to Anaheim.
• Hurricanes don't need Tokarski if they get Forsberg. Tokarski goes to Ottawa as an AHL move to cover the loss of AHL goalie depth from Sogaard going to Anaheim.
• People will say we shouldn't pay 6.4M for a second goalie, but we're not really paying 6.4M. That is subsidized by dumping Norris, who is overpaid with too much term. We clearly need a 1A/1B situation. Adding a veteran NHL goalie could also save our season. This season is very important given the timing of Tkachuk's NMC and our need to make the playoffs to show that this build isn't hopeless.

Rutta is a good choice.

Brannstrom and Zac Jones would both be depth pieces. Fine, but they aren't going to come in and play 18-20 minutes for us. We need an established player who can play up and down the lineup, like a good version of what the coach uses Hamonic as.

Mayfield's contract is toxic. It only works if they take Norris. Even then, it's a tough sell. He also has a NTC.

Why would we want Gibson? Just get a decent backup

 

[UglyPuckling]

Pinto is on his 3rd contract and is a much better player. I’d give Greig a 2 year deal at 1.5M year 1 and 2.5M year 2 for a 2M AAV.

I understand that opinions are not as high on Grieg lately. I guess we’ll see what happens ultimately.

It seems like the other point about potential underpay for one of the new wingers is being overlooked as well. A lot (maybe all) of the perceived Grieg overpayment would get washed out if this winger gets paid more than the conservative estimate I included.

 

[bicboi64]

Norris for Gibson would be a desperation move. Is Pinto good enough to cover what Norris brings to the top 6? Defensively sure, but has been awful in terms of scoring. $14 million on goalies would sting, but Gibson could always be moved (teams can get desperate for good goaltending).

If management is moving Norris and we get an unappealing contract back, I'd rather it just be an RD that can play in the top 4 and stay healthy. Justin Faulk, Connor Murphy (who isn't a bad contract at all), Ryan Pulock, Damon Severson, etc.,

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I don't agree with this underlying assumption that Norris has no market without retention/negative value coming back. Yes, he's expensive and yes there is injury risk, but he's a young and relatively proven top 6 centre.

And if I'm wrong about this, and the only way to to move him is to take back a bad contract, why trade him? Why take cents on the dollar? He's an important, contributing player on a team that's trying to be good now.

In the trade proposal quoted, it gets us out of his contract 3 years earlier without retaining.

It also improves our team now by addressing two major positions of need at the expense of losing a center.

A trade I brought up a few pages back was Dubois for Kuemper. I think that any Norris trade is going to look something like that. We will get back a veteran or two with lower cap and less term, but they will be players who are seen as negative value. The tradeoff for the Senators will be that they pass the risk of the Norris contract on to the team that acquires him.

Gibson is no longer an elite goalie, and I doubt there is a strong market for him without some cap considerations from the Ducks. He was below average the past two seasons, and now he lost his job to Dostal. That is the kind of piece I would expect back for Norris, because at the end of the day the main asset coming back to Ottawa is the long-term cap flexibility they trade gives them.

They need to do something because making the playoffs this year is incredibly important. They were dealt a bad hand with injuries. Norris has been on the block almost since this regime took over. They clearly want to move on from him, so this isn't a panic move where they move a player they wouldn't otherwise move, it's the move being expedited.

I am 100 percent aware that Gibson is damaged goods. This is not a dream trade scenario by any means.

 

[GCK]

In the trade proposal quoted, it gets us out of his contract 3 years earlier without retaining.

It also improves our team now by addressing two major positions of need at the expense of losing a center.

A trade I brought up a few pages back was Dubois for Kuemper. I think that any Norris trade is going to look something like that. We will get back a veteran or two with lower cap and less term, but they will be players who are seen as negative value. The tradeoff for the Senators will be that they pass the risk of the Norris contract on to the team that acquires him.

Gibson is no longer an elite goalie, and I doubt there is a strong market for him without some cap considerations from the Ducks. He was below average the past two seasons, and now he lost his job to Dostal. That is the kind of piece I would expect back for Norris, because at the end of the day the main asset coming back to Ottawa is the long-term cap flexibility they trade gives them.

They need to do something because making the playoffs this year is incredibly important. They were dealt a bad hand with injuries. Norris has been on the block almost since this regime took over. They clearly want to move on from him, so this isn't a panic move where they move a player they wouldn't otherwise move, it's the move being expedited.

I am 100 percent aware that Gibson is damaged goods. This is not a dream trade scenario by any means.

I’m losing you as soon as you talk about moving Norris. It makes zero sense.

 

[ottawagm]

I'd rather pay ANA to eat 50% of Gibson's contract and move Forsberg to another team. If Norris is going that way then we need another decent asset coming back.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Norris will be very attractive to teams looking to hit the floor next season. The floor will be high and there are very few legit high-ticket NHLers with no trade protection.

I could see a deal with Columbus around Sillinger or Chinakov, or something like that.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Norris will be very attractive to teams looking to hit the floor next season. The floor will be high and there are very few legit high-ticket NHLers with no trade protection.

I could see a deal with Columbus around Sillinger or Chinakov, or something like that.

I don't know if that is the case. Teams won't want to take 5 years at big money to hit the floor. Not to mention, he makes 9.5M next year in real cash.

I do think you're right that it will be a Columbus/San Jose/Chicago type team with lots of cap flexibility who takes gambles on him. I just don't think it will have to do with hitting the floor. It will just be a case where their cap flexibility combined with where they are in their rebuild (farther away from maxing out their roster) makes the risks of Norris not living up to the contract less of an issue for them than it would be for a team at the spot that we're at.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I don't know if that is the case. Teams won't want to take 5 years at big money to hit the floor. Not to mention, he makes 9.5M next year in real cash.

I do think you're right that it will be a Columbus/San Jose/Chicago type team with lots of cap flexibility who takes gambles on him. I just don't think it will have to do with hitting the floor. It will just be a case where their cap flexibility combined with where they are in their rebuild (farther away from maxing out their roster) makes the risks of Norris not living up to the contract less of an issue for them than it would be for a team at the spot that we're at.

Yeah, no one will take him purely to hit the floor. He needs to keep scoring goals, at least, and playing a good 2-way, physical game, but I see no reason why he would regress. If anything, he's more likely to continue to improve.

I don't see him purely as a guy to dump for exactly those reasons, but other teams are more likely to see him as an asset worth giving assets for due to upward movement on both ends of the cap. There will be at least a small handful of teams with lots of cap space and assets who can easily pencil Norris in as a huge upgrade to their middle 6, if not top 6. Jason Dickinson and Nick Foligno and Andreas Athanasiou UFA types are free, but they don't have the potential to be a long-term core piece down the middle like Norris is.

 

[GCK]

Yeah, no one will take him purely to hit the floor. He needs to keep scoring goals, at least, and playing a good 2-way, physical game, but I see no reason why he would regress. If anything, he's more likely to continue to improve.

I don't see him purely as a guy to dump for exactly those reasons, but other teams are more likely to see him as an asset worth giving assets for due to upward movement on both ends of the cap. There will be at least a small handful of teams with lots of cap space and assets who can easily pencil Norris in as a huge upgrade to their middle 6, if not top 6. Jason Dickinson and Nick Foligno and Andreas Athanasiou UFA types are free, but they don't have the potential to be a long-term core piece down the middle like Norris is.

Why would we trade Norris ? It.makes no sense whatsoever

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Why would we trade Norris ? It.makes no sense whatsoever

I could see a case for it in the offseason, assuming a) Pinto, Greig and Ostapchuk continue to progress as C's and b) we return a cheap, solid, young player in return.

It would allow us to fill out our middle 6 wingers and #4/5D.

 

[bicboi64]

Why would we trade Norris ? It.makes no sense whatsoever

He's not a liability on the ice by any means and management shouldn't be actively trying to shop him.

But he's overpaid for his production and getting good two-way hockey in a C shouldn't cost $8 million plus his injury concerns will always linger. I'm happy with keeping Norris and think he'll get closer to his 35g season form next year, but management would be foolish for not listening to offers in case they want to make an upgrade that might be available.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Why would we trade Norris ? It.makes no sense whatsoever

We may want to get out of his contract.

He got paid 8M after putting up 35G and 55P in 66GP but has only paced at 50P/82GP the last couple years, albeit while dealing with shoulder issues.

 

[GCK]

He's not a liability on the ice by any means and management shouldn't be actively trying to shop him.

But he's overpaid for his production and getting good two-way hockey in a C shouldn't cost $8 million plus his injury concerns will always linger. I'm happy with keeping Norris and think he'll get closer to his 35g season form next year, but management would be foolish for not listening to offers in case they want to make an upgrade that might be available.

He’s not overpaid. He is pacing for 31 goals coming off some major surgeries. He leads all Sens players, not just centres in DZone start %. The cascade effects of not having Norris would really hurt the team.

 

[Good in Osgoode]

He's not a liability on the ice by any means and management shouldn't be actively trying to shop him.

But he's overpaid for his production and getting good two-way hockey in a C shouldn't cost $8 million plus his injury concerns will always linger. I'm happy with keeping Norris and think he'll get closer to his 35g season form next year, but management would be foolish for not listening to offers in case they want to make an upgrade that might be available.

Having depth down the middle is a huge part of being a good team and with Stutzle/Norris/Pinto/Greig, we have that, and all those players are young and in the case of Stutzle & Norris, locked-in long term.

On the other hand, I can see why they might want to trade Norris.
He is one of 6 players, along with Stutzle, Tkachuk, Chabot, Sanderson & Ullmark (next season) that are all signed to long-term deals, all in the $8m/year range on this team.

That many big-ticket long-term contracts means that there is little to no flexibility in terms of adding new players, either in free agency or by trade. They are not going to trade Sandy or Stutz and unless he wants out, they should not trade Brady. Ullmark, injury concerns aside, is newly signed and is likely not going anywhere anytime soon.

That leaves Chabot & Norris.
If you were to trade either one, you would need to bring a similar type of player back in both cases.
Our depth at C and at D is not good enough to lose either one of those players and not replace them. I just think that if I was Staois, I would feel like one of these guys needs to go to create some flexibility to make any kind of significant move. Otherwise, we will be forced to make smaller moves like the ones that they did last off-season with Amadio, Cousins, Gregor & Gaudette.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

For me, it would all depend how that cap space would be used. Not interested in a dump, but I do think it can be problematic to have a 50 point player making 8 mil when you're capped out and have no internal prospects pushing, but he is at least a goal scorer and responsible defensively. That said, I hope he shows a little more offensively as he gets more comfortable.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

rutta
zac jones
brannstrom
mayfield is one with term that would be risky but i think his value has gone down enough to get him for a 3rd

lol RD

 

[Cosmix]

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