Post-Game Talk: For the first time... 100 points! 3-2 Jets

[Whileee]

I was watching this game on the Ducks feed and at one point the guy that calls their game floated out a conspiracy theory that the Ducks shot totals were higher than the embarrassingly low number that they had and the guy who was counting the shots was giving Winnipeg the "home town advantage". Why would the Jets shot counter guy do that? He said that there are schools of thoughts that suggest that you can gain a psychological advantage by suppressing the opposition's shots and showing a huge disparity in the shot count. What a kook, I mean that is avgard level of homerism.

Good thing they weren't posting Corsi. That would have been downright humiliating to the Ducks and their announcers.

 

[Saintb]

I agree with Jet that Chiarot is very composed with the puck right now. I guess that is what confidence does. I hope it continues because I think he really adds something to our team in terms of physicality.

 

[Hobby Bull]

This is pretty funny:

WOW! Morrissey! That is crazy!

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

See what patience towards the process can result in?

I have been ranting about it for years, begging some on here to trust we were getting better, regardless of losses, but it’s a tough sell.

I thought we would start to take off last season, with a strong second half that would see us snag a wild card spot. Injuries never let it happened, but I felt those last seven games of that season was a strong sign of things to come.

We have a legit shot at a 50 win season, and with a 100 already in the bank, we can easily call this a successful season indicating that patience to the process works.

We will become the template for others to follow.

 

[ps241]

When Frenchie went down early this year, isn't it weird to think that at the time we were so upset but it might be the single biggest positive event for us this year? Of course, Connor's replacement on the top line would have produced, but the way that this kid has played, and the big goals he's scored? Oh boy! Realistically, he probably would have been called up soon after anyway, but its really crazy to think about.

I REALLY liked Chiarot and Morrow last night. Sorry, I did. I thought they were aggressive, and especially Chiarot just seems to be following this steep development curve. He is turning into a really good all-round defenseman. Even Morrow was playing with confidence and made some great plays. It's a shame he was partially at fault for the second goal - I know some on here won't get past that and see that he had a pretty great game.

I hate that the Ducks got a point last night - they deserved **** all. Man, if we had Gibson and Helle? Might as well just give us the cup

Anyone worried the Ducks would sweep us this year?

It was really disappointed when Connor got sent down. Honestly I thought it was the wrong move at the time but a few good things came out of it.

First off Chevy was interviewed around the same time and he said Connor won't be down for long and when he comes back up it will be into our top 6. I remember at the time thinking that was a pretty bold statement for Kevin who is the king of GM speak (talk but don't say anything) but you could tell Chevy meant it and it allowed me to relax. Listening to him talk I knew Connor was very valued and it was a timing thing. Secondly listening to Beyak yesterday on the Big Show he mentioned that Connor was disappointed when he got sent down but he got over it quickly and really worked his ass off on the Moose. He spent extra time in the film room working on refining his game etc. Now I don't think he necessarily needed that time on the Moose but I love how he responded.

Also Jet when you get guys as gifted offensively as Connor Ehlers and other top talent sometimes those guys never really develop their D games. Eventually their skill wins out and their good outweighs their negatives but they kind of are who they are and that is scorers. That is what is so great about Connor he was an elite scorer in the NCAA but he worked his ass off to become a pressure forechecker and that speaks volumes about the kids determination. His will to improve all aspects of how he plays has vaulted him to a higher tier.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I'm confused. Do you think super long OT shifts, along with OT personnel who don't seem to be suited for or understand OT don't contribute to the result? Are you calling the result random?

I'm saying that 3v3 is so dominated by variance, that the sum expected impact of these "bad decisions" can be measured in tenths of a point per game, yet people took the 0-6 start as "proof" that we were horrific at OT, and the 4-2 turnaround as "proof" that these changes have made us suddenly very very good in OT.

I think most posters here are smart enough to understand when our team plays well and when it doesn't. Lately we have looked pretty good in OT, *despite* the long shifts and their negative contribution almost costing us. Do you disagree with that?

I think we've definitely increased our expected win rate in OT by a few percent with these changes, no doubt about it, but the vast majority of turnaround in results is luck evening out. We were incredibly unlucky in our first 6 OTs and now have gotten a fair bit luckier in our next 6.

That's where we disagree; on how much of the turnaround is due to improved decisions versus how much was due to luck.

I mean, it's hard to argue your point here it seems to me: the successful contributions in OT lately have been exactly the reverse of the things people were complaining about before (the "narrative" as you call it)

After starting 0-6 in OT, people were literally saying we had 0% chance to win in OT, or next to it. The most optimistic assessment of our OT chances was that we were a 2-1 dog in overtime against an average team. Yes, the most optimistic of folks were saying that Winnipeg versus an average team in a 5 minute 3v3 OT was as big a mismatch as Arizona on the road in Tampa Bay for a full 60 minute mid-season game. And that was the most optimistic. Most everyone was at 0% or essentially 0%.

And whether or not you think it's harsh to call it "a narrative" I should remind you it was only one OT win ago that there were still pockets of people saying the Jets played horrible in 3v3, got "incredibly lucky" that our bad decisions didn't cost us, etc. etc.

Have these changes made a difference? Yes. Have they made a "0-6 was a statistically fair result, now 4-2 is a statistically fair result" difference? Not a damn chance.

... young speedy guys scoring the goals, more patience in OT, not getting burned by long shifts by our captains, not having all our captains out together... ???

Little from Byfuglien was the first OT winner of the turnaround; Myers from Schiefele was the second.

alphalackey statsprofessor

 

[AlphaLackey]

Magic number for Nashville to clinch the division is 11.

Jets max points 116

And most likely the Jets would get the tie breaker so they need to finish ahead in points.

Oh yeah, sorry for not clarifying; I was talking magic number as "clean wins" and you were (I'm pretty sure) talking magic number as "points".

 

[Aavco Cup]

Oh yeah, sorry for not clarifying; I was talking magic number as "clean wins" and you were (I'm pretty sure) talking magic number as "points".

5 wins for them is not Magic though. Using your system it would be 6

 

[Aavco Cup]

These charts are insane especially that scoring chances graphic

 

[AlphaLackey]

5 wins for them is not Magic though. Using your system it would be 6

Okay yeah whoops guess I should also add that I was counting consecutive wins in a row (well, my source was at any rate) and that Nashville winning their next 5 would necessarily include a Winnipeg loss given the next game.

Chrissakes it's too early

 

[Aavco Cup]

Okay yeah whoops guess I should also add that I was counting consecutive wins in a row (well, my source was at any rate) and that Nashville winning their next 5 would necessarily include a Winnipeg loss given the next game.

Chrissakes it's too early

well yes if one of their 5 wins is against us then that would do it.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree with Jet that Chiarot is very composed with the puck right now. I guess that is what confidence does. I hope it continues because I think he really adds something to our team in terms of physicality.

If there was a team most improved player award Chiarot would certainly be in the running.

 

[Jack722]

I'm saying that 3v3 is so dominated by variance, that the sum expected impact of these "bad decisions" can be measured in tenths of a point per game, yet people took the 0-6 start as "proof" that we were horrific at OT, and the 4-2 turnaround as "proof" that these changes have made us suddenly very very good in OT.

I dunno, I think we looked really bad in OT. It seemed obvious that we were taking overlong shifts and didn't really seem to understand how OT worked or how to play it, and we were getting burned for it over and over.

I do agree that it's not a huge deal.. OT wins/losses don't matter that much and there's for sure tons of variance.

BUT... there is variance like that throughout hockey, in 5 on 5 as well, and you could look at any given thing anybody was complaining about at any time - bad pinch by Buff, Myers made the wrong pass there, Laine and Little have bad chemistry - and say "the impact of this particular thing is statistically insignificant". I don't understand the point of doing that though; it's fun to break down the good and bad of a game and moan occasionally about things we could improve. And if you don't constantly improve (which all 31 teams do) then you'll quickly find that 'statistical variance' starts becoming a little more lopsided, and not in your favour.

I do agree though that we were unlucky in our first OT's and though we didn't look great, luck definitely wasn't going our way and it was far from a 'sky is falling' situation. BUT, I do think the OT has tangibly improved to my eye.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Shocking I say, absolutely shocking!

Oh good old blue pucks

 

[Eyeseeing]

An absolutely dominant game by the Jets. We can truly be a force come playoffs. C-S-W as dominant as I've seen a line be this season. Nice to see Connor get the OT winner. Well deserved by the farmleaguer.

I don’t see how it was possible to have Kay any better truthfully it was pure domination

 

[folix]

Can say that since we won the last over time I hate 3v3 O.T.? The only reason I'm ok with it because anything is better then a shoot out. However a punch in the nuts is preferable to a kick doesn't mean it's a awesome idea.

 

[Howard Chuck]

The jets that played last night can beat any team in the league. Now add Trouba.

 

[PhilJets]

I agree with Jet that Chiarot is very composed with the puck right now. I guess that is what confidence does. I hope it continues because I think he really adds something to our team in terms of physicality.

Chairot Buff
Pairing is a very good pair

Then Enstrom Myers as the 3rd pair.
Since Kulikov is out

 

[SensibleGuy]

Coming in to this season I had a real wide range of possible outcomes. I really couldn't predict anything because I could totally have seen things going like they did for Edmonton - nothing going right and so forth plus the injury thing like last season is always a worry. But I did think a very good outcome was in the range of possible expectations. I'm not completely surprised by how this season has gone because I knew we had an abundance of talent and more depth than ever before. However, I am overjoyed! lol. What a remarkably different experience this has been compared to the previous 2.0 years of utter drudgery. Previous seasons, we were essentially done by the 50 game mark for all intents and purposes. Then it was several months of desperately hoping for some crazy winning streak to get us back in the race and eventually the inevitable draft discussions. Even the season we got into the playoffs, it was a grind right to the last game with no time to relax and just look forward to the post season.

This year? Who gives a flying f*** about the draft!? lol. We've been in a good place since the second month of the season with no real drop off at all! How friggin incredible is that? I mean think about it - an entire season of just riding the wave with no real bad segment of games (after the first few that is). And that's in spite of still getting hammered hard by injuries to really core guys. I've been expecting a 5 or 6 (or more) game losing streak all season and it just hasn't come close to happening. It's been something to witness I'll tell ya! 100 points with 8 games left? Wow...

 

[Aavco Cup]

^was the playoff season just a dream?

 

[SensibleGuy]

^was the playoff season just a dream?

no. I mentioned it. But let's face it, while it was nice to get in it really was sort of an illusion.

 

[Aavco Cup]

no. I mentioned it. But let's face it, while it was nice to get in it really was sort of an illusion.

It was no illusion when I drove downtown and joined the masses partying in the middle of portage and main

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[untouchable21]

Indeed. What the positive problem to have. At worst there are high value assets waiting to be liquidated/changed for other high value assets and promises of future, at best it could be the core of Stanley cup winning team.

In retrospect, Chevy appears being genius.

There is an article online somewhere back from Chevy’s Chicago Wolves days with a quote saying “ Chevy is the smartest hockey man I ever met”. Quote was from the Wolves owner Don Levin I believe.

 

[Koonta]

no. I mentioned it. But let's face it, while it was nice to get in it really was sort of an illusion.

Yeah that season they had to fight so hard to get in and really it took and used up everything they had to get there. This season we have plenty of fuel left in the tank and a plethora of gamebreakers and a goalie that can get it done.