For the 11th straight season, the Presidents' Trophy winner will not win the Stanley Cup

[ricky0034]

Does it? 1/12 is higher than 1/16

Which specific placement has performed better? I know placing #2 in presidents trophy race has won the cup two times post-cap. 2005 to 2024. Would you bank on that instead? Dallas Stars is there this year.

Let's say, hypothetically, that the highest winrate placement in the president's trophy race is 7th, while sixth and eighth placements would perform significantly worse. Would you conclude that teams should aim to place exactly 7th so that they'd perform better in playoffs? Intentionally losing to avoid placing 6th instead of 7th?

i'd be interested in seeing an overall Playoff win percentage by seed

still a fairly small sample size but lots less noise there than just a binary won cup yes/no

 

[Toby91ca]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797097959416274948

This almost makes it seem going all out in the regular season is actually a detriment to your playoff performance.

Why do you make that suggestion though? Do you have stats that show finishing 2 through 16 is somehow better? Not suggesting there isn't stats that will show it, but if there are, would be circumstantial and random.

FACT is, any team, including the best team in the regular season, even if we think they have the best chance to win the cup compared to any other team, likelihood of that team winning is still dwarfed by the likelihood of one of the other 15 teams winning it.

 

[CupsOverCash]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797097959416274948

This almost makes it seem going all out in the regular season is actually a detriment to your playoff performance.

Tampa learned this. Regular season means nothing. It's almost better to rest your guys for a lot of the season so the wear and tear on them isn't so bad in the playoffs, well as long as your team is deep enough and can keep winning. At least don't give it 100% you see a lot of them probably try to manage themselves through a 82 game season anyway.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797097959416274948

This almost makes it seem going all out in the regular season is actually a detriment to your playoff performance.

The whole "President trophy curse" is such a bunch of crap. Saw someone post that historically 21% of President Trophy winning teams win the Cup. Since every team that makes the play-off's theoretically has a ~6% chance of winning the Cup, that means that the President Trophy winning team is 3x more likely to win that the average other play-off team. I like those odds.

Hockey is a game of who gets hot at the right time. Going into this year, there were 10-12 teams that I felt had as good a chance of winning the Cup as the President winning Rangers, so them not making it to the Finals is not a shock.

 

[varsaku]

The whole "President trophy curse" is such a bunch of crap. Saw someone post that historically 21% of President Trophy winning teams win the Cup. Since every team that makes the play-off's theoretically has a ~6% chance of winning the Cup, that means that the President Trophy winning team is 3x more likely to win that the average other play-off team. I like those odds.

Hockey is a game of who gets hot at the right time. Going into this year, there were 10-12 teams that I felt had as good a chance of winning the Cup as the President winning Rangers, so them not making it to the Finals is not a shock.

If that percentage is so low then clearly there is a strong correlation with the lack of success in the playoffs. These teams that win the presidents trophy are either focusing on the wrong style of play that doesn't translate into the playoffs or focused too much on the regular season.

Why do you make that suggestion though? Do you have stats that show finishing 2 through 16 is somehow better? Not suggesting there isn't stats that will show it, but if there are, would be circumstantial and random.

FACT is, any team, including the best team in the regular season, even if we think they have the best chance to win the cup compared to any other team, likelihood of that team winning is still dwarfed by the likelihood of one of the other 15 teams winning it.

If any team can win, then that makes the regular season more meaningless for teams not in risk of losing their spot.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

If that percentage is so low then clearly there is a strong correlation with the lack of success in the playoffs. These teams that win the presidents trophy are either focusing on the wrong style of play that doesn't translate into the playoffs or focused too much on the regular season.

I think it more that it's all about who gets hot at the right time in the play-off's.

By it's nature with goaltending, the combination of GP and high contact resulting in more injuries, and stars only playing 1/3-1/2 the game, the "variability" of outcomes is significantly higher in the NHL than other sports. With that said - to me being 3x more likely to win the Cup than the straight percentages would suggest is a pretty compelling case that there is a benefit.

 

[Toby91ca]

If any team can win, then that makes the regular season more meaningless for teams not in risk of losing their spot.

Not sure what you are saying here

 

[SnowblindNYR]

To me, the Presidents' trophy is one of those things that's nice to get, but I doubt any team is going all out just to try to win it. Usually, the focus is more on winning the division, so they have home ice at least through the first couple of rounds. And with 3 division winners and a 2 seed in the conference finals, I'm not sure I want to argue they're wrong to try to get a top seed.

Why is getting home ice important in the first couple of rounds but not all 4?

 

[Phil McKraken]

Tampa learned this. Regular season means nothing. It's almost better to rest your guys for a lot of the season so the wear and tear on them isn't so bad in the playoffs, well as long as your team is deep enough and can keep winning. At least don't give it 100% you see a lot of them probably try to manage themselves through a 82 game season anyway.

80% of the season not mattering is a serious flaw in the format. Scrap playoff conferences and let the higher seeds pick any opponent they want throughout the playoffs. Not only does that increase your chance to win an individual series, but the effect also accumulates through the playoffs since you're more likely to get extra rest than a lower seed which has to take every series to 7 games.

 

[kingsholygrail]

There's some overwhelmingly high percentage of Cups won by the Top 4 teams of each conference. Right now, Florida is #3 in the East against #5 in the West points wise. Edmonton winning would be an outlier. Florida winning would just continue to reinforce the standard.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Since Chicago won the Cup in 2013, the Rangers were the only President's Trophy winners to make it to the Conference Finals (2015 and 2024). Nobody else made it past the 2nd round.

View attachment 878736

This chart has made me realize that the Panthers have ended the last 2 President's Trophy winners seasons. Right after they had won the President's Trophy and lost in the second round.
We've been directly involved with the last three PT winners fates (losses).

 

[Henkka]

It's interesting how multiple Stanley Cup winners will usually

A) win the President's Trophy first - fail at the playoffs
B) lose the Finals

After that they will become Champions in a different season.

Like Detroit
- 95 Presidents + lost SC final
- 96 Presidents
- 97 Cup
- 98 Cup

Detroit again
- 2006 Presidents
- 2008 Cup + Presidents
- 2009 lost Cup final

Like Tampa
- 2015 lost SC final
- 2019 Presidents
- 2020 Cup
- 2021 Cup

Florida is on the same way
- 2022 Presidents
- 2023 lost Cup final
- 2024 ... ?

Good team will have good long term success.

 

[beastintheeast]

The regular season is completely different from the playoffs. In the regular season, you get time off and play teams that are not that great in between games that count.

The Maple Laffs are the perfect example of a regular-season team. They have enough offence to win games and once in a while their goaltending helps them

The problem is that the playoffs are over a shorter period, and you are playing a competitive team only. The playoffs are built on how hurt you are, how much punishment you can take, and how good your defence and goaltending are. It is not how good your goaltender is, as we can see in Vegas last year and the Oilers this year; it is how hot your goalie is.

I am fully in the once you make the playoffs stop pushing rest star players when you can and make sure they are healthy.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Why is getting home ice important in the first couple of rounds but not all 4?

It is important, but assuming you win your division and make it to the Conference or Cup finals, you already have a decent chance to still have home ice, because there's no guarantee that you're going to be facing another 1 seed. So, how much benefit is there in winning the Presidents' trophy, instead of just your division, if you end up facing a 3 seed in the ECF and a 2 seed in the SCF?

 

[AvroArrow]

Beauty of the NHL, it's not like the NBA where everyone knows the top 4 team before game 1 of the regular season. Just get to the playoffs and everyone has a chance.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

It is important, but assuming you win your division and make it to the Conference or Cup finals, you already have a decent chance to still have home ice, because there's no guarantee that you're going to be facing another 1 seed. So, how much benefit is there in winning the Presidents' trophy, instead of just your division, if you end up facing a 3 seed in the ECF and a 2 seed in the SCF?

Unless you're playing injured players in order to get the PT what exactly is the point in my trying to win every game?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Unless you're playing injured players in order to get the PT what exactly is the point in my trying to win every game?

How else are you expecting to win your division?

Also, let's say your team clinches the division after game 80, but could win the PT if they win both of the final 2 games. Do you want them to go for the PT, or maybe rest a few guys and get ready for the playoffs?

 

[Fish on The Sand]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797097959416274948

This almost makes it seem going all out in the regular season is actually a detriment to your playoff performance.

Well that's a huge leap in logic.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

How else are you expecting to win your division?

Also, let's say your team clinches the division after game 80, but could win the PT if they win both of the final 2 games. Do you want them to go for the PT, or maybe rest a few guys and get ready for the playoffs?

Rest banged up guys, maybe the starting goalie for a game.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Rest banged up guys, maybe the starting goalie for a game.

I completely agree, because once you've clinched your division, the next thing that matters most is being ready for the playoffs. At no point can I even imagine the Presidents' Trophy being a factor in any decision being made. It's a gold star for the team that puts up the most regular season points in pursuit of the Cup, not something teams actively try to achieve.

 

[MadLuke]

Beauty of the NHL, it's not like the NBA where everyone knows the top 4 team before game 1 of the regular season. Just get to the playoffs and everyone has a chance.

This seem to be something people repeat but has not been true in quite a while.

Who did not had Denver-Milkwaukee in their Top 4 before the season started ? Phidadelphia-Miami over Indiana ?

The Maverick did not made the playoff last year and are in the final this year.

I doubt more than 0.5% had Boston-Indiana and Dallas vs Minnesota before game 1 of the regular season.

Since 2019 the list of NBA teams that made finals

Raptors-Warriors(x2)-Lakers-Heat(x2)-Suns-Bucks-Celtics(x2)-Nuggets-Mavericks, it will be 6 years period without anyone winning it twice.

9 teams on a maximum of 12 reached the finals, we are in a era of great parity.

 

[JaegerDice]

If you take the odds of ANY playoff slot vs the field, you're likely to lose.

The President's Trophy winner actually tends to get out of the 1st round most years, making them a better bet than half the field in most years.

From there? Yeah, hockey is a random game and the cup is hard to win. Between injuries, fatique, bad stylistic matchup, etc, a lot can go wrong.

The 2013 Blackhawks and 2008 Red Wings were just a different breed. That's why they're considered among the very best teams of the cap era.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I completely agree, because once you've clinched your division, the next thing that matters most is being ready for the playoffs. At no point can I even imagine the Presidents' Trophy being a factor in any decision being made. It's a gold star for the team that puts up the most regular season points in pursuit of the Cup, not something teams actively try to achieve.

Well yeah but I wouldn't just treat it as an NFL week 18.

 

[RandV]

I think it more that it's all about who gets hot at the right time in the play-off's.

By it's nature with goaltending, the combination of GP and high contact resulting in more injuries, and stars only playing 1/3-1/2 the game, the "variability" of outcomes is significantly higher in the NHL than other sports. With that said - to me being 3x more likely to win the Cup than the straight percentages would suggest is a pretty compelling case that there is a benefit.

Also it's probably only 50/50 that you get a clear cut #1 regular season team like Boston last season. This year a bunch of different teams held down the President trophy spot through the season. I'd bet at the game 72 mark a different team was in first place. Extend the season to 92 games and you probably get a different PT winner.

Other than home ice there's little advantage when you're only looking at a 2-5 or so point difference in the standings with a bunch of teams.