Confirmed with Link: Flyers trade 32nd overall pick to Edmonton for first round pick in 2025 or 2026 (Top 12 Protected In 2025)

[GKJ]

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[JojoTheWhale]

Ehh, I don’t see it this way, and I’m not trying to excuse a poorly managed draft, which I think this was in a lot of ways.

The most likely outcome for Edmonton’s 2025 pick is in the 18-26 range. Reasonable chance that it’s in the 26-32 range. I think we can establish that moving from 32 to ~25 would cost roughly a late 2nd, more if it’s to 20, less if it’s to 28, etc. That premium you want (correctly) is embedded in whatever weighted probability you assign to the pick being in each of those spots.

It’s actually a complicated math problem if you broke it down by the expected value + weighted probabilities and then discounted it for time value. But I don’t think it’s shit value. If Edmonton’s pick is at 32, yes it will be shitty. But given the odds of where that pick will land, I don’t think the value is all that off.

If Edmonton’s pick is 20 or 32, our evaluations shouldn’t change. They traded 32 on the clock for a rainbow of probabilities, each with some time decay. Now your rainbow is different than mine and that definitely matters.

If you’re telling me that we need to approach best reasonable case to approach coming out ahead, I really don’t see the angle of attack. This isn’t Nashville’s 1st where you have real play. It’s Edmonton’s, with top 12 protection as the cherry on top for catastrophic injury luck insurance.

 

[Tripod]

Agree mostly, but Luchanko’s floor is Laughton. He is a younger

No, his floor is a non NHLer.

Laughton was picked 20, is 20th in scoring from his draft....11th for forwards.

And only 9 players drafted ahead of Laughton, outscored him. So Laughts outscored over half the guys drafted above him.

Laughton was a success for a guy picked 20. In no way is Jett guaranteed to reach that level.....and that's what's sad. Reaching that would be a success based on his skill level. Passing on a potential #1 Dman for that is asinine.

 

[Random Forest]

If Edmonton’s pick is 20 or 32, our evaluations shouldn’t change. They traded 32 on the clock for a rainbow of probabilities, each with some time decay. Now your rainbow is different than mine and that definitely matters.

If you’re telling me that we need to approach best reasonable case to approach coming out ahead, I really don’t see the angle of attack. This isn’t Nashville’s 1st where you have real play. It’s Edmonton’s, with top 12 protection as the cherry on top for catastrophic injury luck insurance.

Sure, and I suppose this does just come down to your expectation of the weighted probabilities. I’m just saying there *is* a premium embedded in that pick by virtue of the expectation being it probably won’t be 32. It could be, but the expected value of that pick is better than 32, which implies a premium within it.

 

[Tripod]

If Edmonton’s pick is 20 or 32, our evaluations shouldn’t change. They traded 32 on the clock for a rainbow of probabilities, each with some time decay. Now your rainbow is different than mine and that definitely matters.

If you’re telling me that we need to approach best reasonable case to approach coming out ahead, I really don’t see the angle of attack. This isn’t Nashville’s 1st where you have real play. It’s Edmonton’s, with top 12 protection as the cherry on top for catastrophic injury luck insurance.

It's like the time value of money. Some don't understand it though.

 

[Magua]

The value argument is what it is. Another top 3 round pick needed to come back. You can accept it or not.

The second part is the Flyers made an evaluation call: no one from 32-50 (Jack Berglund ) was worth drafting. The player they take next year (they have no real idea, no matter what they say) will be better than everyone in that range. That part will take time. And we'll see! Just like when this AGM and scouting staff said the 2020 draft was weak. Is 2025 deeper in talent or fit?

 

[Random Forest]

It's like the time value of money. Some don't understand it though.

I’m familiar with the concept, thanks.

 

[GKJ]

I don't get this board lol. Next year is better by far in terms of top talent (don't need to hear that from the team itself), and for once, we have a stockpile when the draft will be on point. Literally for the first time in forever we've began to line this up, plus we might add even more TDL time. Lets go land Hagens or Misa next year, maybe try and follow that up with a Mcqueen/Spence/Martone. Danny seemed to try and make some splashes in the top10, I can seem them actually pulling the trigger next year on those types of moves.

They won’t move up next year because it doesn’t happen.

 

[volnoir]

If Briere doesn't see their window for contention opening up for another 3-4 years this trade makes a lot of sense, same with the stock pilling of 2025 picks. I personally do not mind the swap.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Edmonton has the 1st-5th best odds to win the Cup next year depending where you want to look. No matter what standard deviation you want to put on next year's pick, barring a perfect storm of events in the Flyers favor, there is very little chance they get significant surplus value in the trade.

You mean to tell me they couldn't even squeeze a pick swap out of this thing?

We can argue whether certain trades are fair value or not, but is it too much to ask that at least one trade is a landmark victory in favor of this team? One? You don't have to win every trade, but you have to win some.

 

[volnoir]

Edmonton has the 1st-5th best odds to win the Cup next year depending where you want to look. No matter what standard deviation you want to put on next year's pick, barring a perfect storm of events in the Flyers favor, there is very little chance they get significant surplus value in the trade.

You mean to tell me they couldn't even squeeze a pick swap out of this thing?

We can argue whether certain trades are fair value or not, but is it too much to ask that at least one trade is a landmark victory in favor of this team? One? You don't have to win every trade, but you have to win some.

You don't view the Provo trade as a win?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Sure, and I suppose this does just come down to your expectation of the weighted probabilities. I’m just saying there *is* a premium embedded in that pick by virtue of the expectation being it probably won’t be 32. It could be, but the expected value of that pick is better than 32, which implies a premium within it.

Is there one other example this century of a trade in hockey or football in which a team traded a top 50 pick for a future pick in the same round and nothing else? I would even accept some basketball trades.

 

[FLYguy3911]

You don't view the Provo trade as a win?

More fair than win. I think people underestimate how easy they let the Kings off the hook for taking on the Peterson contract. And they clearly targeted Grans in the trade rather than a pick(s). He looks like the dud he looked like last year.

 

[Random Forest]

Is there one other example this century of a trade in hockey or football in which a team traded a top 50 pick for a future pick in the same round and nothing else? I would even accept some basketball trades.

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen this before at the NHL draft, but I’m not going to look it up because I’m lazy and don’t care all that much. I don’t follow other sports at the draft pick transaction level.

All I’m saying is that it’s not right to say they didn’t get a premium. We can argue about how big that premium is depending on what probability you assign to where the Oilers finish. You can say that it’s poor value because the time value is greater than the implied premium, and that’s fine, I might agree with it if I really did the math on the EVs, weighted probability, and net present value. I’m just saying there *is* a premium embedded in that pick unless you mean to tell me Edmonton has a 100% chance of winning the Cup.

 

[volnoir]

The other benefit of the trade is it's another 1st round pick they could use in a trade. A team may or may not like the player you picked at 32nd as much as they like the control of drafting their own player in the 1st in 2025. For example if they were looking to trade for Brady Tkachuk.

 

[Curufinwe]

If Briere doesn't see their window for contention opening up for another 3-4 years this trade makes a lot of sense, same with the stock pilling of 2025 picks. I personally do not mind the swap.

If Briere thinks he has 3-4 years to get in contention he’s gonna end up out the door like Hextall.

 

[Beef Invictus]

My big fear is that this team is similarly positioned next year, and that all of these 25 picks are to be used as trade fodder at the TDL to bring in whatever aging vets they think will get them to the promised land of the 8th seed and a first round playoff loss.

Seems like whenever the Flyers have something resembling a stockpile of picks, they end up picking less than 7 times that year. I'll believe all these picks actually get made and aren't burned on miscellaneous nonsense when I see it

 

[Tarpongg]

Seems like whenever the Flyers have something resembling a stockpile of picks, they end up picking less than 7 times that year. I'll believe all these picks actually get made and aren't burned on miscellaneous nonsense when I see it

Carolina made ten picks, what a waste!

This time next year, the Flyers will be out of cap hell, and itching to get back into cap hell. They will be looking to package those extra picks for the next Trouba, or maybe even Trouba, for his leadership and toughness

 

[Tripod]

Carolina made ten picks, what a waste!

This time next year, the Flyers will be out of cap hell, and itching to get back into cap hell. They will be looking to package those extra picks for the next Trouba, or maybe even Trouba, for his leadership and toughness

Or like others have said, they will. Use some of those picks at next years deadline adding guys like Eric Johnson in an attempt to make the playoffs

 

[mr figgles]

If Briere doesn't see their window for contention opening up for another 3-4 years this trade makes a lot of sense, same with the stock pilling of 2025 picks. I personally do not mind the swap.

A late first is years away from making an impact. They need to get the player now, so they are developing to be ready by then.

 

[GKJ]

They’re aiming to use the picks to move up next year. He couldn’t do it this year, but next year he will in a deeper draft, trust me when I tell you this

 

[Boocowski]

This is not a deal to get angry over. It's an upgrade in position no matter what and could be substantial if Edmonton goes out early which is always possible. If not, it's basically the same so they stagger picks and contracts coming in. Sound strategy but definitely not a big deal either way.

 

[LegionOfGloom]

This is not a deal to get angry over. It's an upgrade in position no matter what and could be substantial if Edmonton goes out early which is always possible. If not, it's basically the same so they stagger picks and contracts coming in. Sound strategy but definitely not a big deal either way.

How does have 1 first this year and 3 next year instead of 2 + 2 help "stagger picks and contracts." Pretty much says everything that you need to lie to yourself to say anything positive about this franchise.

 

[FLYguy3911]

No one has traded out of the top 10 short of getting an NHL roster player back so it doesn't really matter how many picks you have. The league places an extra premium on those picks.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Is there one other example this century of a trade in hockey or football in which a team traded a top 50 pick for a future pick in the same round and nothing else? I would even accept some basketball trades.

Doesn’t exist as far as I can tell. There’s probably a reason for that.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Doesn’t exist as far as I can tell. There’s probably a reason for that.

Those three or so years the Flyers traded their 7th to Montreal for their 7th next year infuriated me so much. This trade is basically that but on steroids.