Flyers and Shootouts vs Flameouts?

[Random Forest]

If you are consistently bad at something (among the league's poorest) you need to take a good hard look at why from an "analytics" perspective and not just chalk it up to luck....

Yeah they shouldn't make it this big science project at the exclusion of more important fundamentals but they should not consider it an afterthought either. I think Berube is taking the right approach thus far...let's see if it yields any results. I happen to think we lack enough skill to make a difference from a personnel perspective but there is always room for improvement on everybody's part.

Yeah, but someone has to be at the bottom of the list. Even if you, I, and 28 others form a coin flipping league, someone is going to end up with a terrible record of heads to tails.

Now, equating shootouts to coin flips is disingenuous, and I agree with that, but it shouldn't be quite surprising that the Flyers are near the bottom when we've had the poorest goaltending in the league since the beginning of the shootout.

It's not for lack of practice or poor shooters, imo. With Mason, I expect the Flyers shootout success to regress to the mean over the long term.

EDIT: That being said, like Beef said, there's no downside, so why the hell not practice it more. Shootouts in practice are fun for players anyways.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

The Flyers are 27-51 all-time in shootouts.

People can claim luck all they want, but that record is unacceptable. If anything, they should have dedicated breakaway practice for the goalies, who collectively have the worst shootout save percentage (0.570) by a wide margin (Toronto has the next worst at 0.607; the median save percentage is 0.678).

I don't think it's really that necessary to dedicate much time to it. If they were better 5v5 they wouldn't need to win as many shootouts. Even with screwing around with the puck after practice, that's still the genesis of some of these moves.

Only Carolina has been in less shootouts, so I'm not sure why you're bringing up 5-on-5 play with number of shootouts.

 

[Random Forest]

The Flyers are 27-51 all-time in shootouts.

People can claim luck all they want, but that record is unacceptable. If anything, they should have dedicated breakaway practice for the goalies, who collectively have the worst shootout save percentage (0.570) by a wide margin (Toronto has the next worst at 0.607; the median save percentage is 0.678).

Like I said, this isn't a product of not caring enough about the shootout. That's a product of having terrible goaltending.

You can practice shootouts all day long, but you're still going to lose a lot more than you win with Emery, Leighton, Boucher, Bryzgalol, and the full cast of characters we've had in net.

I'm sure if you also looked at normal save percentage during that time, you'd find that shootout save percentage correlates neatly. We've just had bad goalies.

 

[Embiid]

Yeah, but someone has to be at the bottom of the list. Even if you, I, and 28 others form a coin flipping league, someone is going to end up with a terrible record of heads to tails.

Now, equating shootouts to coin flips is disingenuous, and I agree with that, but it shouldn't be quite surprising that the Flyers are near the bottom when we've had the poorest goaltending in the league since the beginning of the shootout.

It's not for lack of practice or poor shooters, imo. With Mason, I expect the Flyers shootout success to regress to the mean over the long term.

EDIT: That being said, like Beef said, there's no downside, so why the hell not practice it more. Shootouts in practice are fun for players anyways.

I did note the goaltending hasn't helped in a previous post..right? So yes that "analytic" is part of the equation...

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It doesn't hurt but I'm not seeing much of a difference it will make in regards to the shooters. Mason & Giroux were really the only reasons we stood a fighting chance during the majority of them last year.

Read for whatever reason really stunk last year despite being one of our better shooters in previous seasons so hopefully he regain his touch again.

 

[Random Forest]

I did note the goaltending hasn't helped in a previous post..right? So yes that "analytic" is part of the equation...

It's not so much that the goaltending hasn't helped...it's that the goaltending has been such a miserable dumpster fire for the last decade that it's been nearly impossible to pull off a winning record in the shootout.

Here is where the Flyers finished in shootout shooting percentage since the beginning:

13-14: 22nd
12-13: 18th
11-12: 10th
10-11: 18th
09-10: 11th
08-09: 27th
07-08: 6th
06-07: 29th
05-06: 13th


So it's not outstanding, but it's not nearly as bad as their overall record would indicate. If they just got average goaltending, they'd be an average shootout team. Nothing too complicated. But it's also probably nothing a whole lot of practice will fix either.

We'll be better in the shootout moving forward because we finally have a goaltender that move and cover ground.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Like I said, this isn't a product of not caring enough about the shootout. That's a product of having terrible goaltending.

You can practice shootouts all day long, but you're still going to lose a lot more than you win with Emery, Leighton, Boucher, Bryzgalol, and the full cast of characters we've had in net.

I'm sure if you also looked at normal save percentage during that time, you'd find that shootout save percentage correlates neatly. We've just had bad goalies.

I wonder what the Flyers shooting percentage in the SO in those 78 games. nevermind the goaltending. what is the shooting percentage against the league average.

 

[Random Forest]

I wonder what the Flyers shooting percentage in the SO in those 78 games. nevermind the goaltending. what is the shooting percentage against the league average.

They're 26th all time in SH% in the shootout.

On it's face, you would think that would be the root cause of our shootout woes...but it's actually not even close. Flyers all-time save percentage in the shootout is an absolutely atrocious .570. The closest team to them is Toronto at .607, and the average save percentage across the board is .670.

That means Flyers goaltending in the shootout is almost THREE standard deviations from the mean. That's actually LOL territory.

In comparison, the Flyers are only one standard deviation away from the mean in shooting percentage. Neither area is good, but if we had gotten the SV% of even the second worst team in the league, this problem would be MUCH less pronounced.

 

[MadFerIt95*]

I have a difficult time explaining this, but I kind of like that we suck at shootouts for some reason.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

They're 26th all time in SH% in the shootout.

On it's face, you would think that would be the root cause of our shootout woes...but it's actually not even close. Flyers all-time save percentage in the shootout is an absolutely atrocious .570. The closest team to them is Toronto at .607, and the average save percentage across the board is .670.

That means Flyers goaltending in the shootout is almost THREE standard deviations from the mean. That's actually LOL territory.

In comparison, the Flyers are only one standard deviation away from the mean in shooting percentage. Neither area is good, but if we had gotten the SV% of even the second worst team in the league, this problem would be MUCH less pronounced.

and that is with Steve Mason's .656 last year. probably doesn't push that OV that much but still. .570 is just laughable.

 

[Curufinwe]

Even Bob was terrible in shootouts when he was here.

 

[ilovetheflyers8]

I think practice would help. Designating a time for the players to test out moves rather, than hoping they just prepare on their own seems like it would help.

 

[Embiid]

Even Bob was terrible in shootouts when he was here.

Supposedly in practice he would stone players 1 on 1 but yeah in actual game situations with us he kind of sucked. A lot of it was attributed to his stance which he has since adjusted. Not sure how he has been with Columbus in shootouts...

Our goalies have definitely been a huge detriment in the shootouts. How many shootouts did we see where the goalie didn't make one single save? I mostly remember Bryz doing that.

 

[Embiid]

and that is with Steve Mason's .656 last year. probably doesn't push that OV that much but still. .570 is just laughable.

.570 is absolutely putrid...

 

[flyershockey]

Part of it is the type of goaltending we've had in Philly since the shootout came. Shootouts require a pretty high degree of athleticism, which is something none of our goalies have had outside of Mason and Bob (for one year). We've relied mostly on positional goaltenders that more or less just get in the way of pucks, but that's not enough in the shootout where the goalie is at the disadvantage.

I've pretty much come to accept that our shooters have to go 2/3 for any realistic chance at picking up the extra point.

 

[Curufinwe]

You have to think that the sustained awfulness of the Flyers goalies in shootouts has negatively affected some of the shooters. For a decade they have basically known that if they don't go 2/3 or 3/3 they will lose.

Niittymaki - 46/68 = .676
Esche - 4/10 = 0.400
Biron - 20/40 = 0.500
Boucher - 15/27 = 0.556
Leighton - 0/2 = 0.000
Emery - 9/16 = 0.563
Bobrovsky - 12/25 = 0.480
Bryzgalov - 16/34 = 0.471
Mason - 21/32 = 0.656
Heeter - 1/2 = 0.500

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

.521 since Niittymaki left
rofl

 

[Beef Invictus]

Supposedly in practice he would stone players 1 on 1 but yeah in actual game situations with us he kind of sucked. A lot of it was attributed to his stance which he has since adjusted. Not sure how he has been with Columbus in shootouts...

Our goalies have definitely been a huge detriment in the shootouts. How many shootouts did we see where the goalie didn't make one single save? I mostly remember Bryz doing that.

4 wins last year, 1 loss, .733%

 

[Embiid]

4 wins last year, 1 loss, .733%

Well of course...that figures

 

[Embiid]

You have to think that the sustained awfulness of the Flyers goalies in shootouts has negatively affected some of the shooters. For a decade they have basically known that if they don't go 2/3 or 3/3 they will lose.

Niittymaki - 46/68 = .676
Esche - 4/10 = 0.400
Biron - 20/40 = 0.500
Boucher - 15/27 = 0.556
Leighton - 0/2 = 0.000
Emery - 9/16 = 0.563
Bobrovsky - 12/25 = 0.480
Bryzgalov - 16/34 = 0.471
Mason - 21/32 = 0.656
Heeter - 1/2 = 0.500

Nitty had that many attempts?

 

[Curufinwe]

Yeah, I was surprised, too. Shame his hip gave out.

 

[Embiid]

It continues......

 

[BernieParent]

Hockey should allow for a DS (designated shooter) to be on team rosters solely for shootouts...similar to DH's in baseball. Jodie Shelley would be perfect for the Flyers...

The Flyers need a designated saver.

 

[Embiid]

The Flyers need a designated saver.

Yeah...as the thread noted...goaltending has been the bigger issue when it comes to shootouts

As far as shooters...since we have some new players...I wonder if Bellemare would be a good shootout candidate at some point?

 

[Teezax]

I'm just sick of seeing Backstrom score every god damn time against us in shootout... and with ease.